June 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of Forecasts for June 2017


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max rainfall loc'n


sdanseo ____________15.0 _ 29.6 _ 3.4 _ 089 _ 121 ___ 41.0 Casement
Rameire ____________14.5 _ 28.1 _ 2.9 _ 109 _ 108 ___ 25.5 Belmullet
Rikand _____________14.5 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 30.0 Cork
M.T. Cranium ________14.5 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 30.5 Dunsany
MrSkinner __________ 14.5 _ 25.7 _ 2.7 _ 101 _ 097 ___ 37.3 Valentia
Lumi ______________ 14.3 _ 28.1 _ 3.7 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 41.0 Sherkin Island
Joe Public ___ (-2) ___ 14.3 _ 24.9 _ 1.9 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 50.6 Valentia
sryanbruen _________ 14.2 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 092 _ 120 ___ 28.2 Valentia
Kindred Spirit _ (-2) __ 14.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 40.0 Valentia.
Dacogawa __________ 14.2 _ 26.2 _ 3.1 _ 129 _ 105 ___ 39.5 Valentia
Bsal _______________ 14.1 _ 27.4 _ 3.5 _ 095 _ 104 ___ 29.1 Mullingar

Con Sensus _________ 14.1 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 36.5 Valentia

sunflower3 __________14.1 _ 27.2 _ 3.8 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 36.5 Valentia
Tae laidir ___________ 14.1 _ 26.8 _ 2.5 _ 145 _ 095 ___ 38.0 Valentia
200motels ___ (-7) ___14.0 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 109 _ 101 ___ 26.2 Valentia
mickger844posts _____14.0 _ 26.6 _ 3.8 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 32.9 Valentia
pauldry ____________ 14.0 _ 25.2 _ 3.2 _ 135 _ 100 ___ 49.9 Cork
waterways __________ 13.9 _ 29.0 _ 2.2 _ 101 _ 124 ___ 40.5 Malin Head
john mac ___________ 13.9 _ 28.9 _ 1.8 _ 106 _ 104 ___ 45.2 Newport

NormaL ____________ 13.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 (see note)

dasa29_____________ 13.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 30.0 Valentia
Jpmarn _____________13.4 _ 26.0 _ 1.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 35.0 Claremorris
DOCARCH __________ 13.3 _ 25.7 _ 3.6 _ 138 _ 088 ___ 24.3 Casement

___________________________________________________________

21 forecasts, Con Sensus is median (11th ranked forecasts).

The group consensus seems to be warmer and sunnier than average but with near normal amounts of rain. As to the heaviest of the month, almost half (10) go for Valentia, and for the other eleven, the distribution is Casement 2, Cork 2, Belmullet, Claremorris, Dunsany, Malin Head, Mullingar, Newport and Sherkin Island.

For NormaL, the location of the heaviest rain will score three points if it's Valentia, Cork, Sherkin or Casement, Dunsany, Ballyhaise. It will score two points if it's anywhere else except Johnstown Castle, Oak Park, Moore Park, Shannon.

Ban bank holidays.

I was expecting a few wet days and a dry spell later but this has been more like a deluge followed by perhaps a bit of improvement. The location points are going to be few and far between at this rate, but that's only three out of the ten, I recall one forecast of Sherkin Island (not on the same page as forecasts typing this but I think it was Lumi) and none for JC or Gurteen.

pauldry wrote: »

Markree was 3.8c one of the days last week MT or am I wrong?

4th June in fact

Thanks, I missed that one. That may hold up for the month now.

The MAX now stands at 26.8 from Phoenix Park on Saturday, tops on Sunday being 26.2. So far Tae laidir has this one nailed, and as to MIN (3.8), two guesses right on that current value from sunflower3 and mickger844posts.

The IMT through yesterday was 14.0 and is still rising at about 0.2 per day during this warm spell. That may slow down later in the week but I expect the IMT to be fairly close to 15 through Friday 23rd (at least 14.8), question then being whether it stays that high to end of the month (sdanseo has 15.0 as our highest IMT guess, the second highest was 14.5 from four of us (Rameire, Rikand, MrSkinner and MTC).

PRC has not risen much in terms of guaranteed outcome which is now around 120% and SUN has improved back towards normal with this very sunny four-day interval counting today (Belmullet missed out but even so, looks like an average of over 200 per cent since last report, which would raise the figures from 77% to about 100% through today, which would be maintained if the third week comes in at 150%).

No recent action in the rainfall sweepstakes.

After the third week ...

IMT reached 14.54 with the third week a very warm 17.2, a full 3.2 deg above normal. A new MAX of 28.6 was recorded yesterday at Phoenix Park. Closest to that in our forecast table is John mac at 28.9. The IMT seems likely to thrash around in the mid-14s to about Monday and could even fall back slightly next week, my guess for the final figure is 14.4.

PRC has fallen back towards our forecast range and now sits at 149% of normal after a generally dry week (15% of normal). This guarantees at least 110% as the outcome but will speculate closer to 130%.

SUN got a much needed jolt with 151.3% of normal for the grid during the past week, which leaves the average at 102% of normal. From here on, that may not change.

MIN remains on 3.8 C which could get some minor challenges mid-week, but may be a safe bet.