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June 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-05-2017 7:52am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for June, 2017. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.6 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during June.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during June (see above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during June.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during June.

    6. Bonus question. What will be the heaviest one-day (calendar day) rainfall at any station that regularly reports in the daily weather section of the Met-E website, as confirmed in the Monthly Summary. Give the answer in mm with one decimal place (e.g. 20.5) and also, give a location (no date for the contest points). Points will be 7/10 for amount, 3/10 for location based on 3 points for a correct answer, 2 points if your answer happens to match second highest amount of the month (can be same date) and 1 point for third place. A maximum of 2 superbonus points are available for the winning guess(es) if you have 7+3, and 1 superbonus point if it's 6+3 or 7+2.

    Enter by 0300h Thursday, June 1st, without penalty, after which it's a 1 point deduction for any portion of 3 hours, to the end of Friday June 2nd, and as this contest was posted a bit late, I will extend that to 0300h Saturday 3rd on this occasion (by then you would be losing 16 points), then after that time the penalties increase to 1 point per hour late.

    Good luck!

    Here's mine (partly to help with the template)

    M.T. Cranium ____ 14.5 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 115 __ 30.5 Dunsany


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____ 14.2 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 92 _ 120 __ 28.2 Valentia Observatory

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry____ 14.0 _ 25.2 _ 3.2 _ 135 _ 100__ 49.9 Cork


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ____ 14.1 _ 27.4 _ 3.5 _ 95 _ 104 __ 29.1 Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    sunflower3 ____ 14.1 _ 27.2 _ 3.8 _ 85 _ 110 __ 36.5 Valentia Observatory


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo ___ 15.0 _ 29.6 _ 3.4 _ 89 _ 121 _ 41.0 Casement


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts____ 14.0 _ 26.6 _ 3.8 _ 95 _ 105__ 32.9 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ____ 14.2 _ 26.2 _ 3.1 _ 129 _ 105 __ 39.5 Valentia


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,102 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____ 13.3 _ 25.7 _ 3.6 _ 138 _ 88 __ 24.3 Casement


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,756 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire ____ 14.5 _ 28.1 _ 2.9 _ 109 _ 108 __ 25.5 Belmullet


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac ____ 13.9 _ 28.9_ 1.8 _ 106 _ 104 __ 45.2 newport


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 14.5 ___ 28.0 ___ 3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 30.0 Cork


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner
    > 14.5......25.7.....2.7......101......97......37.3 Valentia.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi ____ 14.3 _ 28.1 _ 3.7 _ 90 _ 100 __ 41.0 Sherkin Island


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ____ 13.9 _ 29.0 _ 2.2_ 101 _ 124 __ 40.5 Malin Head (not Cork)


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ____ 14.1 _ 26.8 _ 2.5 _ 145 _ 95 __ 38.0 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ____ 13.4 _ 26.0 _ 1.5 _ 115 _ 95 __ 35 Claremorris


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29____ 13.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 90 _ 110__ 30.0 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ____ 14.3 _ 24.9 _ 1.9 _ 140 _ 90 __ 50.6 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___14.2 ___ 27 ___ 3.0 ___ 110 ___ 110 ___40.0 Valentia.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels 14.0 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 109 _ 101 __ 26.2 Valentia Observatory


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of Forecasts for June 2017


    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max rainfall loc'n


    sdanseo ____________15.0 _ 29.6 _ 3.4 _ 089 _ 121 ___ 41.0 Casement
    Rameire ____________14.5 _ 28.1 _ 2.9 _ 109 _ 108 ___ 25.5 Belmullet
    Rikand _____________14.5 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 30.0 Cork
    M.T. Cranium ________14.5 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 30.5 Dunsany
    MrSkinner __________ 14.5 _ 25.7 _ 2.7 _ 101 _ 097 ___ 37.3 Valentia
    Lumi ______________ 14.3 _ 28.1 _ 3.7 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 41.0 Sherkin Island
    Joe Public ___ (-2) ___ 14.3 _ 24.9 _ 1.9 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 50.6 Valentia
    sryanbruen _________ 14.2 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 092 _ 120 ___ 28.2 Valentia
    Kindred Spirit _ (-2) __ 14.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 40.0 Valentia.
    Dacogawa __________ 14.2 _ 26.2 _ 3.1 _ 129 _ 105 ___ 39.5 Valentia
    Bsal _______________ 14.1 _ 27.4 _ 3.5 _ 095 _ 104 ___ 29.1 Mullingar

    Con Sensus _________ 14.1 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 36.5 Valentia

    sunflower3 __________14.1 _ 27.2 _ 3.8 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 36.5 Valentia
    Tae laidir ___________ 14.1 _ 26.8 _ 2.5 _ 145 _ 095 ___ 38.0 Valentia
    200motels ___ (-7) ___14.0 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 109 _ 101 ___ 26.2 Valentia
    mickger844posts _____14.0 _ 26.6 _ 3.8 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 32.9 Valentia
    pauldry ____________ 14.0 _ 25.2 _ 3.2 _ 135 _ 100 ___ 49.9 Cork
    waterways __________ 13.9 _ 29.0 _ 2.2 _ 101 _ 124 ___ 40.5 Malin Head
    john mac ___________ 13.9 _ 28.9 _ 1.8 _ 106 _ 104 ___ 45.2 Newport

    NormaL ____________ 13.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 (see note)

    dasa29_____________ 13.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 30.0 Valentia
    Jpmarn _____________13.4 _ 26.0 _ 1.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 35.0 Claremorris
    DOCARCH __________ 13.3 _ 25.7 _ 3.6 _ 138 _ 088 ___ 24.3 Casement

    ___________________________________________________________

    21 forecasts, Con Sensus is median (11th ranked forecasts).

    The group consensus seems to be warmer and sunnier than average but with near normal amounts of rain. As to the heaviest of the month, almost half (10) go for Valentia, and for the other eleven, the distribution is Casement 2, Cork 2, Belmullet, Claremorris, Dunsany, Malin Head, Mullingar, Newport and Sherkin Island.

    For NormaL, the location of the heaviest rain will score three points if it's Valentia, Cork, Sherkin or Casement, Dunsany, Ballyhaise. It will score two points if it's anywhere else except Johnstown Castle, Oak Park, Moore Park, Shannon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    valentia leads on day one 12mm or something

    next monday looks a contender for wettest day of June

    poss 25mm or more


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Hopefully the Cork Snow Shield reverses its polarity for this month and becomes the Cork Rain Magnet


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    I regret going for a dry June now.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Seems like multiple days of rainfall bonus potential in first half of June. Will prob dry out 2nd half n then temperature bonus IMO


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Knock Airport 20.1mm yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Rainfall yesterday:
    30.2 Johnstown Castle (No selection!)
    18.5 Roches Point


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Out of interest, Rainfall totals for 4th & 5th June:
    Johnstown Castle 30.8
    Moore Park 26.2
    Cork Airport 24.7
    Oak Park 23.4
    Claremorris 22.2
    Knock Airport 21.8
    Roches Point 21.1
    Valentia 20.2
    ...
    Finner Camp 8.5
    Shannon Airport 8.4
    Malin Head 7.3


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Ban bank holidays.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    I pick Johnstown for everything, all the time and it always lets me down..... the one time I dont


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