WW XII - Simpsons Mafia

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 10:28AM

So, all baddy teams got a kill (or conversion) this morning:

Four dead evils: Andy, Kolido, Pter, Sully.

We know Kolido was Hermann.

Italians started out with 3
Riches started out with 3

3 dead evils excluding Kolido means one team is down to 1 and one team is down to 2.

Though with Vale being converted it could be 2&2 or 1&3 now.

The_Valeyard · 25-05-2017 10:30AM

quickbeam wrote: »

Though with Vale being converted it could be 2&2 or 1&3 now.

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 10:31AM

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Which is it Vale? 1&3 or 2&2?

The_Valeyard · 25-05-2017 10:32AM

quickbeam wrote: »

Which is it Vale? 1&3 or 2&2?

raze_them_all_ · 25-05-2017 10:33AM

quickbeam wrote: »

So, all baddy teams got a kill (or conversion) this morning:

Four dead evils: Andy, Kolido, Pter, Sully.

We know Kolido was Hermann.

Italians started out with 3
Riches started out with 3

3 dead evils excluding Kolido means one team is down to 1 and one team is down to 2.

Though with Vale being converted it could be 2&2 or 1&3 now.

I would assume it's 2-2 with the conversion. I'd say a wolf was feeling under pressure on his own turned vale to get himself a day without being lynched.

Barney92 · 25-05-2017 10:34AM

I know it won't sound great to side with Vale, but I do think we need to lynch someone else. If we don't reduce the kill rate we are done for. And by lynching Vale were guaranteeing that all three teams will be alive next munch. We can't afford another three kill night. I'd suggest voting for one of the other unknowns, which can be further reduced if the judge comes out (we know they're still alive).

The_Valeyard · 25-05-2017 10:34AM

raze_them_all_ wrote: »

I would assume it's 2-2 with the conversion. I'd say a wolf was feeling under pressure on his own turned vale to get himself a day without being lynched.

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 10:37AM

So currently we're 14 - 9 good & 5 bad
After tonight's lynch we're 13 - 9 good & 4 bad
But we'll still have three evil teams, so after tomorrow's munch, assuming no double targets, or targeting each other, it'll be 10 - 6 good & 4 bad
Assuming a successful lynch tomorrow - 6 good & 3 bad......

Yikes. But those 3 bad could well be from 3 separate teams which could actually be to our advantage as all the wolf teams need to wipe each other out too.

raze_them_all_ · 25-05-2017 10:38AM

Barney92 wrote: »

I know it won't sound great to side with Vale, but I do think we need to lynch someone else. If we don't reduce the kill rate we are done for. And by lynching Vale were guaranteeing that all three teams will be alive next munch. We can't afford another three kill night. I'd suggest voting for one of the other unknowns, which can be further reduced if the judge comes out (we know they're still alive).

This idea has merit. By killing vale the evil teams will be the same as it was this morning which is bad for the village, on the other hand if we lynch and miss the evils have gained massively as we will have to lynch vale eventually. So the question is can we afford to hunt and not kill vale? If we miss it is terribly for the village.

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 10:39AM

Barney92 wrote: »

I know it won't sound great to side with Vale, but I do think we need to lynch someone else. If we don't reduce the kill rate we are done for. And by lynching Vale were guaranteeing that all three teams will be alive next munch. We can't afford another three kill night. I'd suggest voting for one of the other unknowns, which can be further reduced if the judge comes out (we know they're still alive).

If it's 2&2 on the mafia teams then we've only one shot at wiping out a team and that's by hitting Bob.

If it's 3&1 then at least we've two chances.

It's the old argument over taking out a guaranteed baddie over chancing it on an unknown. Who do you think we should target to take out a team?

The_Valeyard · 25-05-2017 10:40AM

If you think you have a wolf, kill them, you know who I am( If you do)

Why got for a dead cert, when you should focus on an active hidden wolf.

tritium · 25-05-2017 10:42AM

quickbeam wrote: »

So currently we're 14 - 9 good & 5 bad
After tonight's lynch we're 13 - 9 good & 4 bad
But we'll still have three evil teams, so after tomorrow's munch, assuming no double targets, or targeting each other, it'll be 10 - 6 good & 4 bad
Assuming a successful lynch tomorrow - 6 good & 3 bad......

Yikes. But those 3 bad could well be from 3 separate teams which could actually be to our advantage as all the wolf teams need to wipe each other out too.

Good points by yourself and barney. Id been mulling numbers myself for similar reasons. Killrate is the thing that really hurts us in this game. Normally you have a decent block of mislynches but thats much less true here. If a wolf can misdirect once or twice they get pole position very quickly. The danger with skipping vale is that we kill a villager so we need to thread very carefully today. On the upside the wolves have to kill each other also but they also are likely to have figured most or all of the players roles by now given the information thats out there

Lets start with discussion of the unknowns and a bit of review of their contributions

The_Valeyard · 25-05-2017 10:43AM

I shal lbe Nelson until I die.

The_Valeyard · 25-05-2017 10:43AM

tritium wrote: »

Good points by yourself and barney. Id been mulling numbers myself for similar reasons. Killrate is the thing that really hurts us in this game. Normally you have a decent block of mislynches but thats much less true here. If a wolf can misdirect once or twice they get pole position very quickly. The danger with skipping vale is that we kill a villager so we need to thread very carefully today. On the upside the wolves have to kill each other also but they also are likely to have figured most or all of the players roles by now given the information thats out there

Lets start with discussion of the unknowns and a bit of review of their contributions

Vale is too handsome and cool to kill. We would miss him too much.

tritium · 25-05-2017 10:48AM

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Wonder if the wolves will figure out who I am

Vale whats the story here?

Barney92 · 25-05-2017 10:50AM

Qb, I'd guess that one of digi or jay is bob. Really I'm not sure though.

sKeith · 25-05-2017 10:51AM

If you are going to reread my misinformation over again, I was working under the assumption that QB was protected 2 nights ago.

The_Valeyard · 25-05-2017 10:51AM

tritium wrote: »

Vale whats the story here?

Im not able to say anymore. Wouldnt be appropriate.

raze_them_all_ · 25-05-2017 10:52AM

Barney92 wrote: »

Qb, I'd guess that one of digi or jay is bob. Really I'm not sure though.

I suspect digi the most, he wasnt active really till i called him out since then he's been more active and looking like he's trying to help the village, But Vale does need to die

tritium · 25-05-2017 10:53AM

The_Valeyard wrote: »

I shal lbe Nelson until I die.

quickbeam wrote: »

If it's 2&2 on the mafia teams then we've only one shot at wiping out a team and that's by hitting Bob.

If it's 3&1 then at least we've two chances.

It's the old argument over taking out a guaranteed baddie over chancing it on an unknown. Who do you think we should target to take out a team?

Probably on to tinfoil hats here but

What if BJ was nelson and vale is really bob pretending?

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 10:54AM

I'd like to hear from Chagan. What say you? What said Uriel - any parting wisdom from him that might be useful to share?

The_Valeyard · 25-05-2017 10:55AM

tritium wrote: »

Probably on to tinfoil hats here but

What if BJ was nelson and vale is really bob pretending?

Do you really think id be able to pull that off?

Seriously??? And all the endless memes would have made zero sense.

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 10:55AM

tritium wrote: »

Probably on to tinfoil hats here but

What if BJ was nelson and vale is really bob pretending?

If so, then what would this mean:

WerewolfGM wrote: »

Finally, locals reported a gang attack on the north side of town. No bodies were retrieved, but it's still no Haa Haa matter.

raze_them_all_ · 25-05-2017 10:55AM

tritium wrote: »

Probably on to tinfoil hats here but

What if BJ was nelson and vale is really bob pretending?

would bob not of been killed? The only reason a hit would fail to kill would be he's either nelson (this one if you ask me) or the body guard protected him

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 10:57AM

One thing I noticed about Digi - whether it means anything or not, I'm not sure: he's the only one of the unknowns to have voted for both Kolido and Petr.

The_Valeyard · 25-05-2017 10:58AM

Maybe I was protected last night?

sKeith · 25-05-2017 11:01AM

tritium wrote: »

Probably on to tinfoil hats here but

What if BJ was nelson and vale is really bob pretending?

find my #FFA2

raze_them_all_ · 25-05-2017 11:02AM

quickbeam wrote: »

One thing I noticed about Digi - whether it means anything or not, I'm not sure: he's the only one of the unknowns to have voted for both Kolido and Petr.

were they not landslide deaths though? Pretty easy to hide as a wolf there when everyone is already voting, I'd like to see the timing of when he came out to vote against them. If it was early thats fair enough but if it was late when it was obvious they were going to hang...well then that to me is a bit suspicious

25-05-2017 11:02AM

I don't understand half of these reveals. Barney92's being rattled and revealing himself, while now seems genius and did work, didn't make sense from an "evil" point of view. gufc's reveal of being Barney Gumble... if your going to die anyway, at least let the wolves try and munch you. I thought these two points were obvious so didn't say anything to alert the baddies. Anyway quick rant over.

My apologies for my team, I haven't been very useful. I debated calling into Kent to say I wasn't long for this world at one stage due to being incredibly busy over in Shelbyville all week. The divorce proceeding with my cousin were running overtime, she wants to leave me but she's just so damn attractive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQwPK2CEjiw

My thoughts at the moment are:

We need Chagan to confirm the Maggie story
Leave Vale alone for now. There will be 3 kills tomorrow morning. We have a better chance of reducing this number if we hit Bob or kill off a team of 1.
Leave me alone for now too. Of course be suspicious, but consider how early I claimed a role. I rolled the dice very early on (and for no good reason). There was no heat on me other than "low poster" nonsense which is luke warm at best. There is a higher probability that I am good than anyone who hasn't claimed. Imagine I claimed Apu and someone called me out. How stupid would have that been for a wolf.

I'd be happy to a shot at any one of these 5 baddies left (other than me of course)

A Neurotic - unknown
Digital Solitude - unknown
Jayop - unknown
partyjungle - possibly Apu
sKeith - f?ck knows
The_Valeyard - evil Nelson
y0ssar1an22 - unknown

If I'm counting that right, that's a 4/5 chance we hit a baddie.

So due to alphabetical order, my #FFA3 for today is

A Neurotic - unknown
Digital Solitude - unknown
Jayop - unknown

On a sidenote, I'm loving having Kent as the GM. I read all the posts in his voice

well done crosstownnk and whoever else is modding

sKeith · 25-05-2017 11:03AM

tritium wrote: »

Probably on to tinfoil hats here but

What if BJ was nelson and vale is really bob pretending?

said as much in my #ffa2

WW XII - Simpsons Mafia

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