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The end for petrol and diesel vehicles.

  • 22-05-2017 10:28PM
    #1
    tayto lover
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 54,549 ✭✭✭✭


    Very interesting article -
    https://www.rte.ie/lifestyle/motors/2017/0520/876698-petrol-and-diesel-engines-have-a-lifespan-of-only-8-years/

    Is it coming so fast though?



    Content added by moderator so we can understand what this is about before having to click links
    Professor Tony Seba doesn't mince his words when talking about the end of petrol and diesel. Conventional transport - from cars to buses and trucks - is facing a tsunami of change and by 2025 everything on four wheels will be electrically-powered, he argues.

    He also predicts that there will be a "mass-stranding of existing vehicles", that the value of second-hand cars will plummet, that people will have to pay to get rid of their cars and that by 2024 there won't be any car dealers in business anymore. The latter claim seems well justified by the decision of Tesla not to have any dealers but to sell directly to customers.


«134

Comments

  • #2
    colm_mcm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,298 ✭✭✭✭colm_mcm


    That journalist is clueless. Not saying he's wrong in this case but he published an article on the Hyundai Ioniq that was utter drivel and full of misinformation. This is just a regurgitated press release.


  • #3
    Dero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 746 ✭✭✭Dero


    Electric tractors? It's going to take a hell of a jump in battery technology before that happens.


  • #4
    Thelomen Toblackai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 965 ✭✭✭Thelomen Toblackai


    8 years isn't really fast given how quickly new technologies are being brought to the market.

    There was an article I read related to AI which talked about the growth of technologies and how must faster things can change. How the advancement in the last 10 years is greater than that of the previous 20 years which was greater than the previous 50 > 100 > 1000 > 10000 etc etc.

    The conclusion was the next 5 years are likely to bring changes so quickly that they will advance areas more in that time than than the previous decade. And given the huge investment and advancement in renewable energy I'd well believe in the next 8 years we'll see the demise of the fossil fuels everywhere.


  • #5
    Sam Kade
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,297 ✭✭✭✭Sam Kade


    Thelomen Toblackai wrote: »
    8 years isn't really fast given how quickly new technologies are being brought to the market.

    There was an article I read related to AI which talked about the growth of technologies and how must faster things can change. How the advancement in the last 10 years is greater than that of the previous 20 years which was greater than the previous 50 > 100 > 1000 > 10000 etc etc.

    The conclusion was the next 5 years are likely to bring changes so quickly that they will advance areas more in that time than than the previous decade. And given the huge investment and advancement in renewable energy I'd well believe in the next 8 years we'll see the demise of the fossil fuels everywhere.
    Renewable energy won't be taking over any time soon. Wind turbines cost more to make and maintain than the electricity they produce.


  • #6
    tabby aspreme
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,296 ✭✭✭tabby aspreme


    How many tonnes of batteries would an
    artic need to power it for four hours, there would be a big drop in payload.
    I see a new LPG powered Daf truck bringing malted barley from Athy to Guinness's regularly.


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  • #7
    kyote00
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,653 ✭✭✭kyote00


    Not much has changed for electric cars in 100 years - actually looks like range was better in 1911 ....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Electric

    418068.png


  • #8
    colm_mcm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,298 ✭✭✭✭colm_mcm


    We're talking about all petrol/diesel vehicles being gone at this stage. Not just everyone buying new electric vehicles?


  • #9
    Sam Kade
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,297 ✭✭✭✭Sam Kade


    tabby aspreme wrote: »
    How many tonnes of batteries would an
    artic need to power it for four hours, there would be a big drop in payload.
    I see a new LPG powered Daf truck bringing malted barley from Athy to Guinness's regularly.
    A 40 tonne battery.


  • #10
    Thelomen Toblackai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 965 ✭✭✭Thelomen Toblackai


    Sam Kade wrote: »
    Renewable energy won't be taking over any time soon. Wind turbines cost more to make and maintain than the electricity they produce.

    I wouldn't be so sure about that. There's huge investment going into renewable energy and the cost to market for solar and wind is currently cheaper than some fossil fuels.

    Countries, states and companies are also moving away from using fossil fuels and towards 100% renewable energy targets.

    Technology advances incredibly fast when there's money put behind it and a market for it and it's pretty clear the money and market is shifting rapidly away from fossil fuels.

    If you look at the advancement and uptake in the last 5 years in relation to renewable energy production, energy storage and electric transport as well as the drop in cost of all those things due to technological advancement then in 8 years things will have changed a lot and could very well have left fossil fuels behind or be a long way down the road of doing it.


  • #11
    oppenheimer1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,733 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    The article the Prof wrote doesn't stand up from an economic argument anyway. If the price of oil collapses that will make ICE more competitive vs EV. Furthermore low cost EV travel will lead to huge traffic congestion therefore the price of EV usage will have to rise massively.

    Only government policy will drive the conversion to EV, not the market alone in the next ten years.

    There would need to be two orders of magnitude increase in energy density in battery technology for electric trucks to be realistic. Otherwise all they'll be hauling is their own batteries.


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  • #12
    DublinDilbert
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,395 ✭✭✭DublinDilbert


    Dero wrote: »
    Electric tractors? It's going to take a hell of a jump in battery technology before that happens.

    Why so? Electric vehicles have been used in material handling industries for years, long before the latest motor or battery technologies.

    The likes of Die Handlers in metal foundries can shift huge loads all day. Low speed, high torque, very smooth power delivery, electric is ideal for this.


  • #13
    bazz26
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 51,627 ✭✭✭✭bazz26


    Nicolas_Cage_Laugh_GIF%20cagandose%20de%20risa%20(1).gif


  • #14
    jacksie66
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,986 ✭✭✭jacksie66


    This post has been deleted.


  • #15
    dr.fuzzenstein
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16,575 ✭✭✭✭dr.fuzzenstein


    I wonder what those electric cargo ships and planes will look like...


  • #16
    run_Forrest_run
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,493 ✭✭✭run_Forrest_run


    Read the article in the Sindo, I loved the 500k - 1 million mile warranty hinted.


  • #17
    Dero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 746 ✭✭✭Dero


    DublinDilbert wrote: »
    Why so? Electric vehicles have been used in material handling industries for years, long before the latest motor or battery technologies.

    The likes of Die Handlers in metal foundries can shift huge loads all day. Low speed, high torque, very smooth power delivery, electric is ideal for this.

    There's no issue with using electric power for tractors; indeed the torque and power delivery would be ideal, especially for heavy draft applications. However, as mentioned in relation to trucks, the workload of a typical contractors tractor would require it to carry many times it's own weight in batteries to sustain a full day. Like I said, it will take a significant jump in battery capacity for electric tractors to be practical. It will happen, and it may happen by 2025, but I doubt it will be that soon.


  • #18
    ELM327
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,116 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    There's already a prototype EV tractor from John Deere, with 4 hours run time.
    Tesla are rumoured to be working on a Semi/Artic aswell.

    The world of automotive transport will be a very different place in 5 years to now.

    Look back to the start of this decade, there was no form of transport other than fossil cars. Now it's possible to do 50-60k km per year without burning any fossil fuel at all. I know I do! In 5 years time we will have faster charging, longer range EVs and I would guess that 30-35% minimum of our national fleet will have a plug. Petrol and Diesel will be above the €2 per litre mark, and diesel will be more expensive due to punitive EU taxation.

    The reason that there were longer range EV's in the 90's compared to some of today's 1st gen EV's is because Big Oil bought the patents to the NiMh battery, halting progress with the Rav4EV, the EV1 etc.


  • #19
    oppenheimer1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,733 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    ELM327 wrote: »
    There's already a prototype EV tractor from John Deere, with 4 hours run time.
    Tesla are rumoured to be working on a Semi/Artic aswell.

    The world of automotive transport will be a very different place in 5 years to now.

    Look back to the start of this decade, there was no form of transport other than fossil cars. Now it's possible to do 50-60k km per year without burning any fossil fuel at all. I know I do! In 5 years time we will have faster charging, longer range EVs and I would guess that 30-35% minimum of our national fleet will have a plug. Petrol and Diesel will be above the ?2 per litre mark, and diesel will be more expensive due to punitive EU taxation.

    The reason that there were longer range EV's in the 90's compared to some of today's 1st gen EV's is because Big Oil bought the patents to the NiMh battery, halting progress with the Rav4EV, the EV1 etc.
    A tractor would need a 16hr run time whilst delivering power to attached machinery. The light footed granny coaxing you see with leafs on the motorway today won't cut it in agriculture.

    The electric car is still an awful compromise today. Three stops or an extra hour and a half to get from Finglas to the Slieve Russell in Cavan... No thanks, the product is not ready yet.


  • #20
    Mr.David
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,703 ✭✭✭Mr.David


    VW certainly doesn't agree

    http://www.dw.com/en/vw-combustion-engine-far-from-dead/a-38633065


  • #21
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,907 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »
    I wonder what those electric cargo ships and planes will look like...

    The ships currently look pretty conventional, here's the first one built three years ago.

    showphoto.aspx?photoid=1859648
    The advanced vessel operates on a 5.7km crossing in the Sognefjord between the villages of Lavik and Oppedal. It makes approximately 34 trips a day, each trip requiring approximately 20 minutes, excluding the 10min of loading and unloading time for cars and passengers.
    http://www.ship-technology.com/projects/norled-zerocat-electric-powered-ferry/

    This is what is planned for the next five years for battery powered ships.

    driving.jpg
    this ship will be fully automated and remotely operated by 2020.

    Hybrid-Powered.jpg
    The next generation of cruise ships, hybrid engines, due for delivery 2018.


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  • #22
    oppenheimer1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,733 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    Tabnabs wrote: »
    The ships currently look pretty conventional, here's the first one built three years ago.



    This is what is planned for the next five years for battery powered ships.
    Did you even read what you posted? It's a small ferry doing a 5.7km trip. Not exactly Hong Kong to Rotterdam is it?


  • #23
    ELM327
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,116 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    oppenheimer1 wrote: »
    A tractor would need a 16hr run time whilst delivering power to attached machinery. The light footed granny coaxing you see with leafs on the motorway today won't cut it in agriculture.

    The electric car is still an awful compromise today. Three stops or an extra hour and a half to get from Finglas to the Slieve Russell in Cavan... No thanks, the product is not ready yet.

    132km as per google. I have done 132km on one charge at 90km/h country roads. You could do it at 120km/h with a 10 minute stop at the navan FCP.

    And I have an old (2014) Leaf. In an Ioniq/ZE40 Zoe/30kwh leaf you could do that trip at 120km/h+ without stopping.

    https://www.google.ie/maps/dir/Finglas,+Co.+Dublin/Slieve+Russell+Hotel,+Cranaghan,+County+Cavan/@53.7258416,-7.4894529,9z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x48670dfbb0d2291d:0x2600c7a819b93051!2m2!1d-6.2984007!2d53.390325!1m5!1m1!1s0x485e6c63239bacf3:0xa21fef0141daa8cf!2m2!1d-7.5574705!2d54.0975892


  • #24
    oppenheimer1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,733 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    ELM327 wrote: »
    132km as per google. I have done 132km on one charge at 90km/h country roads. You could do it at 120km/h with a 10 minute stop at the navan FCP.

    And I have an old (2014) Leaf. In an Ioniq/ZE40 Zoe/30kwh leaf you could do that trip at 120km/h+ without stopping.

    https://www.google.ie/maps/dir/Finglas,+Co.+Dublin/Slieve+Russell+Hotel,+Cranaghan,+County+Cavan/@53.7258416,-7.4894529,9z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x48670dfbb0d2291d:0x2600c7a819b93051!2m2!1d-6.2984007!2d53.390325!1m5!1m1!1s0x485e6c63239bacf3:0xa21fef0141daa8cf!2m2!1d-7.5574705!2d54.0975892

    Sorry, I misread his post. Two stops.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=103055025&postcount=201

    Just a mere 3.5 to 4hr North Dublin - Cavan journey.


  • #25
    ELM327
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,116 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    He had just bought the leaf and was being overcautious.
    Hardly a fair example.


  • #26
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,907 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    oppenheimer1 wrote: »
    Did you even read what you posted? It's a small ferry doing a 5.7km trip. Not exactly Hong Kong to Rotterdam is it?

    So, the technology of a few years ago allows a non stop 194km service (they charge it overnight, not every trip :rolleyes:)

    The technology of today is building an unmanned and remotely controlled feeder ship.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VBD7hVRhx0


    Once this technology is proven, they scale it up to ocean going vessels.

    16003495162_88b59c587b_k.jpg

    Within ten years this will be a reality. But perhaps you know more about Maritime Autonomous Systems and would care to refute the points?


  • #27
    tabby aspreme
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,296 ✭✭✭tabby aspreme


    ELM327 wrote: »
    There's already a prototype EV tractor from John Deere, with 4 hours run time.
    Tesla are rumoured to be working on a Semi/Artic aswell.

    The world of automotive transport will be a very different place in 5 years to now.

    Look back to the start of this decade, there was no form of transport other than fossil cars. Now it's possible to do 50-60k km per year without burning any fossil fuel at all. I know I do! In 5 years time we will have faster charging, longer range EVs and I would guess that 30-35% minimum of our national fleet will have a plug. Petrol and Diesel will be above the €2 per litre mark, and diesel will be more expensive due to punitive EU taxation.

    You personally may not be burning any fossil fuel but the ESB are doing it for you , 4.5 million tonnes pa of Co2 in Moneypoint alone, and they have to keep it running in case the wind stops blowing .
    I think EVs are great but we need more solar and battery bank technology to get the full potential from them


  • #28
    ELM327
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,116 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    tabby aspreme wrote: »
    You personally may not be burning any fossil fuel but the ESB are doing it for you , 4.5 million tonnes pa of Co2 in Moneypoint alone, and they have to keep it running in case the wind stops blowing .
    I think EVs are great but we need more solar and battery bank technology to get the full potential from them
    This is an interesting webpage regarding our energy mix http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/#roi


    With fully 100% renewable energy from my work chargepoint, the vast majority of my miles are on 0 emissions well to wheel.

    As for home charging, the electricity is produced whether I drive or not.
    Pretty much all my charging is done either at the work CP which is 100% green electricity, or alternatively at home on night rate, when the power stations have spare capacity and the electricity is wasted if not used.


    Your move.


  • #29
    oppenheimer1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,733 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    ELM327 wrote: »
    This is an interesting webpage regarding our energy mix http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/#roi


    With fully 100% renewable energy from my work chargepoint, the vast majority of my miles are on 0 emissions well to wheel.

    As for home charging, the electricity is produced whether I drive or not.
    Pretty much all my charging is done either at the work CP which is 100% green electricity, or alternatively at home on night rate, when the power stations have spare capacity and the electricity is wasted if not used.


    Your move.

    100% fully renewable at work? Your work charge point is completely off grid? That is fairly unique in Ireland.

    Electricity is not wasted if it is not used. Capacity is ramped up and down to match demand. It's the floating capacity that is inefficient because it has to be quick starting.


  • #30
    ELM327
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,116 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    oppenheimer1 wrote: »
    100% fully renewable at work? Your work charge point is completely off grid? That is fairly unique in Ireland.

    Electricity is not wasted if it is not used. Capacity is ramped up and down to match demand. It's the floating capacity that is inefficient because it has to be quick starting.

    100% green energy. The site is run from 100% green energy. From wind, solar etc. Not off grid. It is possible to purchase from the grid (at higher cost) only renewable energy.

    The powerplants are kept running, but the production exceeds actual demand, due to further demand spikes anticipated later in the day. Is that not wasted? Think carefully now.


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  • #31
    oppenheimer1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,733 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    ELM327 wrote: »
    100% green energy. The site is run from 100% green energy. From wind, solar etc. Not off grid. It is possible to purchase from the grid (at higher cost) only renewable energy.

    The powerplants are kept running, but the production exceeds actual demand, due to further demand spikes anticipated later in the day. Is that not wasted? Think carefully now.
    That's really only a thought experiment. Once power is on the grid you don't know where it has come from. It's like saying no nuclear generated electricity will be imported over the interconnector.

    Production cannot exceed demand as it will damage the grid. Generators are loaded/unloaded as required


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