Lions 2017 [MOD WARNING IN OP]

Bridge93 · 14-05-2017 11:58AM

If I was to break it down as I see it:
Front Row - advantage Lions

Second Row - pretty even. An injury to one of the two All Black guys though and Lions take it. More depth here for the tourists.

Backrow - similar to second row. Naturally the Lions should have more depth

Half Backs - NZ here. Scrum halfs will be similar but Barrett is the best player in the world currently. A couple of disgusting wet days may level it up.

Centres - Area of perceived weakness for both. NZ to edge it but not by much

Back 3 - NZ all day every day

Reverand_Misty · 14-05-2017 12:05PM

Bridge93 wrote: »

If I was to break it down as I see it:
Front Row - advantage Lions

Second Row - pretty even. An injury to one of the two All Black guys though and Lions take it. More depth here for the tourists.

Backrow - similar to second row. Naturally the Lions should have more depth

Half Backs - NZ here. Scrum halfs will be similar but Barrett is the best player in the world currently. A couple of disgusting wet days may level it up.

Centres - Area of perceived weakness for both. NZ to edge it but not by much

Back 3 - NZ all day every day

Hopefully there's enough beef up front for it to be a competitive series. I wouldn't be too pessimistic if I'm honest. The pack will hopefully be half Sarries, 3 Irish and Warburton (or even 5-2-1) so gelling might not be a huge issue. Wyn Jones may be brought in but I think Itoje-Kruis is too good a combo to separate. I think that'd be a pack good enough to deny Barrett a free ride

corny · 14-05-2017 12:36PM

Buer wrote: »

Precisely. Big work rate, good hands, athletic for their size but not nearly as mobile as those that are going.

100% not enforcers though; I would say the people who see the brothers as hard men on the pitch can be counted on fingers.

Gatland spoke about his selections in the second row recently noting he has gone with guys that he feels have the skills and athleticism to compete with the NZ forwards. There's a very clear pattern in the guys he has gone with. Lawes, Henderson, Kruis, Itoje....they're all extremely comfortable with the ball, fast over the ground and mobile. They all have experience of playing at blindside.

That's why someone like Launchbury or Ryan isn't going. They don't fit the game or type of player that's needed, for the coaches.

AWJ is the exception and he's there as the experienced old head and trusted lieutenant which is understandable given the front five is very light on Lions experience.

Launchbury hasn't played much at 6 to my knowledge but with the exception of Itoje he's just as mobile as any name on that list. Much better ball handler than someone like Lawes too.

I'm sure Gatland has his rationale but i don't buy the above in Launchburys case.

pickarooney · 14-05-2017 01:03PM

Well either see good rugby or competitive matches, I'd say, but not both.

Buer · 14-05-2017 01:34PM

Launchbury hasn't played much at 6 to my knowledge but with the exception of Itoje he's just as mobile as any name on that list. Much better ball handler than someone like Lawes too.

He has played blindside a bit but much more in the mould of a Nathan Hines than Itoje.

He has very good hands (just like Hines) but he isn't someone that has the athleticism or mobility of the others. At almost 20 stone, he's much more of an out and out work horse.

That isn't to say he isn't mobile or can't carry. He had the best carrying spell of his career in the 6N. He just doesn't have the same gear as someone like Lawes or Itoje who are ridiculously mobile and fast for guys of their size.

swiwi_ · 15-05-2017 05:31AM

Bridge93 wrote: »

If I was to break it down as I see it:
Front Row - advantage Lions

Second Row - pretty even. An injury to one of the two All Black guys though and Lions take it. More depth here for the tourists.

Backrow - similar to second row. Naturally the Lions should have more depth

Half Backs - NZ here. Scrum halfs will be similar but Barrett is the best player in the world currently. A couple of disgusting wet days may level it up.

Centres - Area of perceived weakness for both. NZ to edge it but not by much

Back 3 - NZ all day every day

It's tradition that the front row advantage is given to the NH, the idea that the SH can scrum is always considered suspect by the North. Unless Coles recovers, the Crusaders frontrow will be the AB frontrow and they have been going just fine. I highly rate Furlong, though. The Lions might have a slight edge at scrum, but for the other roles the frontrow do (lifting at lineout, ruck clearouts, round the field stuff etc, AB props should be a match).

I agree that NZ is vulnerable to injury in the 2nd row, BBBR and Whitelock are just a class better than the other NZ locks. But once again the Crusaders lads have been going very well. Gatland should just choose the Saracens pair, but you suspect AWJ will be in the mix.

Backrow. Pretty even, but NZ need to avoid injury, less depth than the Lions IMO.

Halves - NZ, unless Lions crush AB pack, or it rains cats and dogs. Will be interesting to see if Farrell gets the 10 jersey. As much as he is not particularly liked on this forum, he has been in excellent form in 2017. Probably a slighter better goalkicker than Sexton too.

Centres: reckon NZ will be fine here. An area of some inexperience, but I don't think the options chosen will be a liability.

Back 3: NZ yes, but there are some good options available to Gatland. It would have been interesting to know who Schmidt would have chosen from the pool of players available to a Lions coach.

swiwi_ · 15-05-2017 05:36AM

sydthebeat wrote: »

Scott barrett is a lock??
Dunno if he's ever played a game at top level in the back row.

If I might reply syd, Scott Barrett played a couple of games at 6 early on in the season for the Crusaders. I really don't see him playing starting 6 for NZ, though. He is more a break glass in case of emergency option I would think.

Buer · 15-05-2017 10:19AM

swiwi_ wrote: »

Halves - NZ, unless Lions crush AB pack, or it rains cats and dogs. Will be interesting to see if Farrell gets the 10 jersey. As much as he is not particularly liked on this forum, he has been in excellent form in 2017. Probably a slighter better goalkicker than Sexton too.

I wouldn't say Farrell is a better kicker than Sexton. Certainly not in more recent years, anyway. I think he was in or around the 80% mark in the 6N which is pretty much the acceptable test level. Sexton missed one kick. I think Sexton gets the nod at 10 for Gatland based on his defence and experience though.

Farrell has had a top class season. Gatland will definitely take a look at him at 10 and also at 12 to see how that plays out. It will be very interesting to see how the whole thing works out between 10, 12 and 13....there are about 10 combinations there that I wouldn't be surprised to see starting a test from Sexton, Farrell, Henshaw, Davies and Payne.

Regardless, I'd still expect Halfpenny to get the nod. He's Gatland's man and has done it before on a Lions tour. If he starts, he'll be handed the goal kicking duty.

I think the big different overall is that the NZ side have game breakers capable of creating something throughout the side. There are multiple players who are capable of a moment of magic that is the different between winning and losing. Fekitoa, Barrett, Savea, Smith, Naholo (who might kicking his heels for the next few weeks now) etc. And in the pack they've guys who can do pretty special things too. The Lions simply don't have that.

The teams can match one another for 70 minutes but it's those moments of magic that I see as being the difference.

If I was to put money on it, I'd say 3-0 to NZ but it's not going to be near the same gap as the 2005 tour. The Lions have a more in form and competitve squad. NZ are not the side they were in 2005. At that point, they were on a big upward curve and had several guys who were coming to the fore as the undoubted best in the world and potentially the best in the history of the game in McCaw and Carter.

This NZ team is talented but I feel they've been the beneficiaries of the weakest period of southern hemisphere rugby in a long time. Australia are on a downward curve. SA are a shadow of their former glory. Argentina are an ever imrpoving team but not in the same class.

It's going to be a really interesting tour and I reckon a few legacies will be written over the summer.

swiwi_ · 15-05-2017 10:23AM

@Buer.

The ability to do the right thing at the right time - advantage NZ IMO.
Home advantage.
6 weeks where the Lions will be unable to escape "rugby", it will dominate everywhere. Unlike say a tour to Australia.

These things will all count against the Lions.

No McCaw. Big advantage for the Lions. Cane is not the same player, in fact I'd argue Matt Todd is playing better at the moment.

corny · 15-05-2017 11:04AM

Unfamiliarity and not playing together is always the biggest handicap for the Lions. The 15 names chosen are gonna look brilliant on paper but in reality the NZ'ers will crucify us in terms of structure and efficiency.

Bridge93 · 15-05-2017 11:16AM

I rate Farrell very highly in attack and defence and maybe I'm seeing things but (a bit like Sexton) does he tackle a bit high? Sexton for right or for wrong tends to stop his man but I've seen a few times for England and a couple of times at the weekend Farrell get swatted out of the way
Ultimately I don't really object to either starting 10 but I'd rather they both play

Buer · 15-05-2017 11:22AM

corny wrote: »

Unfamiliarity and not playing together is always the biggest handicap for the Lions. The 15 names chosen are gonna look brilliant on paper but in reality the NZ'ers will crucify us in terms of structure and efficiency.

I would not be surprised at all to see some units that play together for their respective nations to feature in a test.

It's unlikely but a starting 10, 12 and 13 of Sexton, Hendaw and Payne sn't out of the question and I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see it tried in a warm up game.

sydthebeat · 15-05-2017 11:22AM

corny wrote: »

Unfamiliarity and not playing together is always the biggest handicap for the Lions. The 15 names chosen are gonna look brilliant on paper but in reality the NZ'ers will crucify us in terms of structure and efficiency.

Efficiency perhaps.... But not structure.

That's the one aspect the lions will hope to dominate. You can get the best 8 forwards in the NH and put a good structure there within the time given for training etc. The set piece is the one area I can see the lions making profit in in the three tests. Their choice of second and back rows shows how they are targeting this in my opinion.

15-05-2017 11:47AM

Bridge93 wrote: »

I rate Farrell very highly in attack and defence and maybe I'm seeing things but (a bit like Sexton) does he tackle a bit high? Sexton for right or for wrong tends to stop his man but I've seen a few times for England and a couple of times at the weekend Farrell get swatted out of the way
Ultimately I don't really object to either starting 10 but I'd rather they both play

If players get offloads away in mid field it leads to tries or huge territory gains. It's not just halves that try to smother the ball either.

swiwi_ · 15-05-2017 12:36PM

corny wrote: »

Unfamiliarity and not playing together is always the biggest handicap for the Lions. The 15 names chosen are gonna look brilliant on paper but in reality the NZ'ers will crucify us in terms of structure and efficiency.

At the end of the day NZ has Samoa then 1st Lions test.

The Lions on the other hand have 6 games before the first test.

Christy42 · 15-05-2017 01:57PM

swiwi_ wrote: »

At the end of the day NZ has Samoa then 1st Lions test.

The Lions on the other hand have 6 games before the first test.

I think the NZ squad has played a few times together in the last 4 years:p. I don't know why you are trying to belittle the effect of not having much time to gel will have on the Lions. It is hardly the fault of NZ the format struggles to work in this day and age. It is also no slight on their impressive team.

I mean you saw what happened 4 years ago when the Lions seriously struggled against a team England, Ireland and Wales would have batted away and Scotland would have ran close. I mean Australia didn't play a fly half ffs and where in desperate need of rejuvenation (which China seems to have brought).

Seriously though I would put money on either an English or an Irish squad doing better in a 3 test series than the Lions.

swiwi_ · 15-05-2017 04:33PM

Christy42 wrote: »

I think the NZ squad has played a few times together in the last 4 years:p. I don't know why you are trying to belittle the effect of not having much time to gel will have on the Lions. It is hardly the fault of NZ the format struggles to work in this day and age. It is also no slight on their impressive team.

I mean you saw what happened 4 years ago when the Lions seriously struggled against a team England, Ireland and Wales would have batted away and Scotland would have ran close. I mean Australia didn't play a fly half ffs and where in desperate need of rejuvenation (which China seems to have brought).

Seriously though I would put money on either an English or an Irish squad doing better in a 3 test series than the Lions.

Just to be clear, I'm not minimising this. I think it is a reasonable excuse for the opening games of the tour, and possibly the first test. To write off the whole tour on this basis, though, is I think unnecessarily fatalistic.

Christy42 · 15-05-2017 05:33PM

swiwi_ wrote: »

Just to be clear, I'm not minimising this. I think it is a reasonable excuse for the opening games of the tour, and possibly the first test. To write off the whole tour on this basis, though, is I think unnecessarily fatalistic.

Maybe I am a bit fatalistic about it but I really do think the format requires the sh team to be weak. Right now NZ look incredibly strong.

Maybe I will be proven wrong and they will play great rugby. And hopefully as it is a great occasion which I would hate to see go downhill.

swiwi_ · 15-05-2017 05:41PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Maybe I am a bit fatalistic about it but I really do think the format requires the sh team to be weak. Right now NZ look incredibly strong.

Maybe I will be proven wrong and they will play great rugby. And hopefully as it is a great occasion which I would hate to see go downhill.

I hope so too. I personally think it's a shame that

1) There is not greater Scottish representation
2) There is a NZ coach
3) There are a number of project players involved

While the quality of the rugby will be better with the Super Rugby sides, there was a certain romanticism involving the provincial union sides.

As an aside, I suggested to my parents they might want to grab tickets for the Crusaders match...but at NZ$150/ticket, my parents didn't want to fork out 300 bucks.

stephen_n · 15-05-2017 06:05PM

I could see this ending up 2-1 to NZ, by the third test the lions will be a bit cohesive, baring a lot of injuries and should be able to find a win. Though Gatlands record against NZ would not inspire confidence.

Ciaran-Irl · 15-05-2017 06:14PM

swiwi_ wrote: »

As an aside, I suggested to my parents they might want to grab tickets for the Crusaders match...but at NZ$150/ticket, my parents didn't want to fork out 300 bucks.

That's ridiculous. I had no idea they were that off the wall expensive. How much are the test tickets so?

Bridge93 · 15-05-2017 06:18PM

Ciaran-Irl wrote: »

That's ridiculous. I had no idea they were that off the wall expensive. How much are the test tickets so?

Cheapest were 150 dollars. Went as high as 450. I shudder at what youd be paying on Viagogo or somewhere

swiwi_ · 15-05-2017 06:20PM

Ciaran-Irl wrote: »

That's ridiculous. I had no idea they were that off the wall expensive. How much are the test tickets so?

Yeah it's very expensive for Kiwis. It's much more manageable with £ or €...but you have to get to NZ first and find accommodation...

CatFromHue · 15-05-2017 06:27PM

Aren't the ticket prices set by the home nation though?

bilston · 15-05-2017 08:33PM

stephen_n wrote: »

Though Gatlands record against NZ would not inspire confidence.

To be fair that's true of just about every coach, Eddie Jones being the exception I suppose.

Dave_The_Sheep · 15-05-2017 10:48PM

swiwi_ wrote: »

I personally think it's a shame that

1) There is not greater Scottish representation
2) There is a NZ coach
3) There are a number of project players involved

Can't disagree with any of that, particularly the project players part. I've no logical argument against it, and I know it's not a first, but it just feels wrong. The coach part seemed inevitable though, after the last tour.

stephen_n · 16-05-2017 11:29AM

bilston wrote: »

To be fair that's true of just about every coach, Eddie Jones being the exception I suppose.

Joes records not bad :pac::pac:

stephen_n · 16-05-2017 11:31AM

I see Steve Hansen is still whining about the game in Dublin, jeez those kiwis are a moany bunch.

swiwi_ · 16-05-2017 11:50AM

stephen_n wrote: »

I see Steve Hansen is still whining about the game in Dublin, jeez those kiwis are a moany bunch.

I suspect the Indo has done one of its usual selective quote jobs, to incite outrage. It seems to have worked...

razorblunt · 16-05-2017 11:52AM

pickarooney wrote: »

Hard man and Richie Gray are not terms one often sees used together.

Some man to hit the ground when tackled and come flop over rucks.

Lions 2017 [MOD WARNING IN OP]

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