Will it ever rain again?

A wet and windy May, fills the barns with corn and hay.

highdef wrote: »

What does a drought filled May fill?

Dread, I fear.

pedigree 6 wrote: »

If you find her, send her on to me.

Well I heard it said that May is delusional.

Bleating Lamb wrote: »

Is there much of a dew these mornings?...am spreading fertiliser on grazing ground that is very bare and am hoping there is enough of a dew to melt it in!

If one is lucky one might get some drizzle later tomorrow or on Saturday.

The later outlook for next week, Wednesday on is that it suppose to become more unsettled with low pressure more dominant.

Be nice if we got warm and thundery.

The wetter part of the garden here that's usually too waterlogged for good growth is thriving, and the dryer part is nearly dead, I've even had to water it!

Dont ever call a thread that title

Its sure to rain for the whole Summer now though its been remarkably dry since October here bar one really wet day in March

All months in Sligo below normal rainfall for 5 or 6 months

Northern blocking n all that

Actually its worse than that

Just checked n our last month above average was JULY!!! 2016

See Markree

I saw a huge deficit of rainfall in 1976 when I was 2

But never 10 months in a row of below normal rainfall as will be the case if less than 100 percent rainfall this month, since I moved to Sligo 12 years ago.

Forecast has changed from turning unsettles to some showers later next week but will be light in nature.
Any rainfall will be small.

It doesn't want to rain...

If it all came back in the form of intermittent thunderstorms in the evenings at the weekends, that'd be just fine.

One can dream.

DOCARCH wrote: »

I just hope this year does not end up like 2012.

Had a very dry February and March that year, and relatively dry April and May.

Then June was very wet (here in Dublin 16). 25 rain days with 242mm of rain with predominant NE winds.

April 2012.... relatively dry? In Dublin.... . I'd understand you saying it was relatively dry if you were in the west (which it indeed was a relatively dry April) but you reside in Dublin like me and April 2012 was very wet especially towards the last week on the 25th and 29th. OR is your April rainfall total unusually high compared to the rest of us, including myself . April 2012 is my current wettest April on record.

According to my research I did about two months ago at this stage, April 2012 was a relatively wet month across Ireland as a whole with a mean % of average rainfall of 132% - which clearly showed how "relative" the dry weather was in the west and how wet the weather was in the east and south. See here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=102821215&postcount=1

But beware that graph does not consider Northern Ireland stations so the mean % of average rainfall would have been lower than it is because April 2012 wasn't particularly wet in Northern Ireland, totals were variable with western regions more favoured for dry weather.

To give my opinion on the situation, I don't think we'll see an event like 2012. Some characteristics of the 2010-2012 drought (in terms of Ireland, not GRANGE :P):

- Very cold Winter of 2009/10
- Dry period from January to June 2010
- Frequent sunnier than normal months of 2010 (Every month except July was sunnier than normal whilst September was variable)
- Calmest year on record in 2010
- Extremely cold December of 2010
- Very warm Spring of 2011
~ Warmest April on record
- Very cool Summer of 2011 (Coldest of the 21st century so far)
- Very warm Autumn of 2011
~ Second warmest November on record
- Warmest March on record in 2012

One, this dry spell has only been going on since last October and even then, February and March 2017 were wetter than average so kind of eased the possibility of a severe drought up to that point. Two, the last drought, 2010-2012 took place over two years albeit 2011 was a wetter than average year in many places so the "drought" wasn't significant at all unlike the drought of 1974-1976 - which also took place over two years. Three, there are no matches with the above characteristics. That does not mean an event like 2012 won't happen, it's just very unlikely.

Anyway, if you check my updates in the Spring and Summer Ahead thread, you will see that some models are predicting a wetter than average Summer. I have researched dry Aprils followed by dry Mays since 1990 and I have made these reanalysis pressure charts. Made using NOAA's Monthly/Seasonal Climate Composites, this reanalysis shows the pressure setup for summers that followed the said dry Aprils and dry Mays (in the same year)



Not surprisingly, the reanalysis has a very mish mash of summers with some very poor ones and some pretty decent ones. The reanalysis anyway shows a small trough to the south of the UK and very strong northern blocking bringing the flow in from the northeast. This looks like a poor Summer setup but what you have to consider is that the trough is to the south of the UK and is very weak so does not show a very soggy Summer possibility. It does show the possibility of an unsettled and changeable Summer nevertheless. In regards to temperatures, this would be quite a cool Summer setup given the wind direction is from the northeast. However, northeasterlies in Summer are not as cool as northwesterlies or northerlies so quite in between. Every one of the summers in the reanalysis are warmer than average however and even 1995 is in there, Ireland's warmest Summer on record.

I am on the edge now choosing between a decent Summer for 2017 or just a changeable, average to poor Summer for my predictions. In my December 2016 predictions for 2017, I predicted Summer 2017 to be a very good one given how similar Winter 2016/17 was to Winter 2005/06 and how Summer 2006 followed Winter 2005/06 with Summer 2006 being a brilliant Summer. Towards the end of May, I will do my final decision on what I think Summer 2017 will turn out like. Right now, I'm not seeing it as a very soggy Summer continuing the "drought" since last October.

It will rain again from Mid June onwards

Most years we get fair weather in April or May up to the start of June and then it rains until September to bore the kids

If rain is in doubt, then drought is about.










I just made that one up....

IMT 28 day running total (as compared to the 2007 - 2016 10 year average) from January 1st to May 5th:



Astoundingly dry in even what is on average, the driest portion of the year. At present, the current 4 week total stands at just 17.3 mm; considerably less than the average of 59.2mm for the same period.

All data sourced from Met Éireann.

Here in Sligo town

1st 4 months normally 450mm give or take

2017 first 4 months 270mm give or take

Plus first 7 days of May NIL assuming tomorrows dry.

Grass today in Sligo was crunchy and 2 more gorse fires burning nearby

The wettest day since april 7th here was 4mm on the 14th. I can see the rocks on the riverbed of the garavogue at low tide and the flow under the bridge at the glasshouse is a trickle

Sligo is having an official drought of 10 dry months (incl May) in a row

One really wet day in 2017 in March and another one on St Patricks Day that was reasonably wet led to flooding though I think it was coz of hard ground with no drainage