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Will it ever rain again?

  • 04-05-2017 1:07pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    With the forecast giving rain first for next Tuesday and now it's being pushed back till Friday.:(

    Will it ever rain again?:p


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,358 ✭✭✭ highdef


    Well soil moisture deficits are already nearing 50mm in the east which is very unusual for this time of year. I can't remember if 50mm+ of soil moisture deficit is some sort of classification for drought conditions, as per the Irish Met office.

    Soil Moisture deficits are running at over 30mm in the vast majority of the country....that in itself is rather unusual at any time of the year, never mind Springtime!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    highdef wrote: »
    Well soil moisture deficits are already nearing 50mm in the east which is very unusual for this time of year. I can't remember if 50mm+ of soil moisture deficit is some sort of classification for drought conditions, as per the Irish Met office.

    Soil Moisture deficits are running at over 30mm in the vast majority of the country....that in itself is rather unusual at any time of the year, never mind Springtime!

    I'm starting to get short of grass myself and driving around the neighbours seem to be in the same boat. This is the time when we need the growth and moisture for big bulks of silage for winter. But it's just not there.:(
    Getting a little worrying now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,358 ✭✭✭ highdef


    Things will probably even out over the summer :mad: however if it does not, and if this type of weather regime continues over the summer, we WILL have problems.Deficits of over 40mm in the first few days of May can only increase greatly as solar radiation increases over the next 6+ weeks....assuming the weather regime conditions


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,549 ✭✭✭✭ RobertKK


    A wet and windy May, fills the barns with corn and hay.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,358 ✭✭✭ highdef


    RobertKK wrote: »
    A wet and windy May, fills the barns with corn and hay.
    What does a drought filled May fill?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    RobertKK wrote: »
    A wet and windy May, fills the barns with corn and hay.

    If you find her, send her on to me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,929 ✭✭✭ Bleating Lamb


    Is there much of a dew these mornings?...am spreading fertiliser on grazing ground that is very bare and am hoping there is enough of a dew to melt it in!


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,549 ✭✭✭✭ RobertKK


    highdef wrote: »
    What does a drought filled May fill?

    Dread, I fear.
    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    If you find her, send her on to me.

    Well I heard it said that May is delusional.
    Is there much of a dew these mornings?...am spreading fertiliser on grazing ground that is very bare and am hoping there is enough of a dew to melt it in!

    If one is lucky one might get some drizzle later tomorrow or on Saturday.

    The later outlook for next week, Wednesday on is that it suppose to become more unsettled with low pressure more dominant.

    Be nice if we got warm and thundery.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Talk of water restrictions in parts of the UK thanks to the last six/eight months.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    The wetter part of the garden here that's usually too waterlogged for good growth is thriving, and the dryer part is nearly dead, I've even had to water it!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭ ABlur


    Hopefully not much I'm OK till September here on heavy ground!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Dont ever call a thread that title

    Its sure to rain for the whole Summer now though its been remarkably dry since October here bar one really wet day in March

    All months in Sligo below normal rainfall for 5 or 6 months

    Northern blocking n all that

    Actually its worse than that

    Just checked n our last month above average was JULY!!! 2016

    See Markree


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    pauldry wrote: »
    Dont ever call a thread that title

    It's staying that way now.
    I'm hoping to invoke the weather gods.:p

    Even if we get this low pressure next week, it looks like more high pressure after that.

    What screwy thing is after happening with the weather/climate. Whether it's a new ice age or not.:p
    But it looks like our anticyclonic conditions are directly tied to E.N.S.O and I don't think we can expect any big rainfall till an El Nino or back to La Nina starts.
    We only got those threats from those Atlantic storms in december because it briefly dipped into La Nina for a time.
    If there wasn't a tie before, I think there is now and with the forecast now for neutral conditions to continue for a few more months now. I think this country may be in for a deficit of rainfall like we've never seen before.

    Edit (Well from the Atlantic. We could get sneaky lows from the east or south or thunderstorms from the south.)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    I saw a huge deficit of rainfall in 1976 when I was 2

    But never 10 months in a row of below normal rainfall as will be the case if less than 100 percent rainfall this month, since I moved to Sligo 12 years ago.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    nothing to worry about, we get far too much rain in this country far too often, enjoy a few dry days while it lasts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,549 ✭✭✭✭ RobertKK


    Forecast has changed from turning unsettles to some showers later next week but will be light in nature.
    Any rainfall will be small.

    It doesn't want to rain...


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    I just hope this year does not end up like 2012.

    Had a very dry February and March that year, and relatively dry April and May.

    Then June was very wet (here in Dublin 16). 25 rain days with 242mm of rain with predominant NE winds.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,020 ✭✭✭ Simon Gruber Says


    If it all came back in the form of intermittent thunderstorms in the evenings at the weekends, that'd be just fine.

    One can dream.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,087 ✭✭✭ weisses


    If it all came back in the form of intermittent thunderstorms in the evenings at the weekends, that'd be just fine.

    One can dream.

    Fixed that for you


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    I just hope this year does not end up like 2012.

    Had a very dry February and March that year, and relatively dry April and May.

    Then June was very wet (here in Dublin 16). 25 rain days with 242mm of rain with predominant NE winds.

    April 2012.... relatively dry? In Dublin.... :confused:. I'd understand you saying it was relatively dry if you were in the west (which it indeed was a relatively dry April) but you reside in Dublin like me and April 2012 was very wet especially towards the last week on the 25th and 29th. OR is your April rainfall total unusually high compared to the rest of us, including myself :o. April 2012 is my current wettest April on record.

    According to my research I did about two months ago at this stage, April 2012 was a relatively wet month across Ireland as a whole with a mean % of average rainfall of 132% - which clearly showed how "relative" the dry weather was in the west and how wet the weather was in the east and south. See here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=102821215&postcount=1

    But beware that graph does not consider Northern Ireland stations so the mean % of average rainfall would have been lower than it is because April 2012 wasn't particularly wet in Northern Ireland, totals were variable with western regions more favoured for dry weather.

    To give my opinion on the situation, I don't think we'll see an event like 2012. Some characteristics of the 2010-2012 drought (in terms of Ireland, not GRANGE :P):

    - Very cold Winter of 2009/10
    - Dry period from January to June 2010
    - Frequent sunnier than normal months of 2010 (Every month except July was sunnier than normal whilst September was variable)
    - Calmest year on record in 2010
    - Extremely cold December of 2010
    - Very warm Spring of 2011
    ~ Warmest April on record
    - Very cool Summer of 2011 (Coldest of the 21st century so far)
    - Very warm Autumn of 2011
    ~ Second warmest November on record
    - Warmest March on record in 2012

    One, this dry spell has only been going on since last October and even then, February and March 2017 were wetter than average so kind of eased the possibility of a severe drought up to that point. Two, the last drought, 2010-2012 took place over two years albeit 2011 was a wetter than average year in many places so the "drought" wasn't significant at all unlike the drought of 1974-1976 - which also took place over two years. Three, there are no matches with the above characteristics. That does not mean an event like 2012 won't happen, it's just very unlikely.

    Anyway, if you check my updates in the Spring and Summer Ahead thread, you will see that some models are predicting a wetter than average Summer. I have researched dry Aprils followed by dry Mays since 1990 and I have made these reanalysis pressure charts. Made using NOAA's Monthly/Seasonal Climate Composites, this reanalysis shows the pressure setup for summers that followed the said dry Aprils and dry Mays (in the same year)

    eyszpq9.png

    Not surprisingly, the reanalysis has a very mish mash of summers with some very poor ones and some pretty decent ones. The reanalysis anyway shows a small trough to the south of the UK and very strong northern blocking bringing the flow in from the northeast. This looks like a poor Summer setup but what you have to consider is that the trough is to the south of the UK and is very weak so does not show a very soggy Summer possibility. It does show the possibility of an unsettled and changeable Summer nevertheless. In regards to temperatures, this would be quite a cool Summer setup given the wind direction is from the northeast. However, northeasterlies in Summer are not as cool as northwesterlies or northerlies so quite in between. Every one of the summers in the reanalysis are warmer than average however and even 1995 is in there, Ireland's warmest Summer on record.

    I am on the edge now choosing between a decent Summer for 2017 or just a changeable, average to poor Summer for my predictions. In my December 2016 predictions for 2017, I predicted Summer 2017 to be a very good one given how similar Winter 2016/17 was to Winter 2005/06 and how Summer 2006 followed Winter 2005/06 with Summer 2006 being a brilliant Summer. Towards the end of May, I will do my final decision on what I think Summer 2017 will turn out like. Right now, I'm not seeing it as a very soggy Summer continuing the "drought" since last October.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    pauldry wrote: »
    Dont ever call a thread that title

    Its sure to rain for the whole Summer now though its been remarkably dry since October here bar one really wet day in March

    All months in Sligo below normal rainfall for 5 or 6 months

    Northern blocking n all that

    Actually its worse than that

    Just checked n our last month above average was JULY!!! 2016

    See Markree
    These drier than normal conditions started for me in June and continued into September. Even in September some farmers in south wexford were complaining of harvesting conditions but that rain never got to north wexford.
    It also went up the east coast of wexford in September but we really escaped it.
    There were some farmers feeding silage in Kilkenny and even some here in wexford in july and august because grass growth slowed up.

    The met eireann summary to give an idea.

    http://met.ie/climate/monthly-weather-reports.asp


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The GFS showing dry conditions for the most part up until about Thurs or Fri it seems and trending a few LP systems from +144 ( FI territory so open to change )

    wtn9HiD.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,502 ✭✭✭✭ Xenji


    It has only rained three times in Castlebar in the last 32 days, besides last Saturday the other two days had paltry measures of participation, for Mayo that is very good going looking over the last 10 years worth of charts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    It will rain again from Mid June onwards

    Most years we get fair weather in April or May up to the start of June and then it rains until September to bore the kids


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭ erica74


    Is there much of a dew these mornings?...am spreading fertiliser on grazing ground that is very bare and am hoping there is enough of a dew to melt it in!

    There is. I'm up and out at around 5:30/6 most mornings and the grass is damp.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,573 ✭✭✭ degsie


    If rain is in doubt, then drought is about.










    I just made that one up....


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    With the forecast giving rain first for next Tuesday and now it's being pushed back till Friday.:(

    Will it ever rain again?:p



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,030 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    IMT 28 day running total (as compared to the 2007 - 2016 10 year average) from January 1st to May 5th:

    0hV2KH8.png

    Astoundingly dry in even what is on average, the driest portion of the year. At present, the current 4 week total stands at just 17.3 mm; considerably less than the average of 59.2mm for the same period.

    All data sourced from Met Éireann.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,549 ✭✭✭✭ RobertKK


    First 4 months of 2012: 201.4mm
    First 4 months of 2013: 252.8mm
    First 4 months of 2014: 405.2mm
    First 4 months of 2015: 175.8mm
    First 4 months of 2016: 333.2mm
    First 4 months of 2017: 227.4mm

    They are the only years I have data for my weather station here north of Kilkenny city on the hills.
    The average for those years is 266mm for the first 4 months so not that far off what has been the norm.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Here in Sligo town

    1st 4 months normally 450mm give or take

    2017 first 4 months 270mm give or take

    Plus first 7 days of May NIL assuming tomorrows dry.

    Grass today in Sligo was crunchy and 2 more gorse fires burning nearby

    The wettest day since april 7th here was 4mm on the 14th. I can see the rocks on the riverbed of the garavogue at low tide and the flow under the bridge at the glasshouse is a trickle

    Sligo is having an official drought of 10 dry months (incl May) in a row

    One really wet day in 2017 in March and another one on St Patricks Day that was reasonably wet led to flooding though I think it was coz of hard ground with no drainage


This discussion has been closed.
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