Will it ever rain again?

pedigree 6

With the forecast giving rain first for next Tuesday and now it's being pushed back till Friday.:(

Will it ever rain again?:p

highdef

Well soil moisture deficits are already nearing 50mm in the east which is very unusual for this time of year. I can't remember if 50mm+ of soil moisture deficit is some sort of classification for drought conditions, as per the Irish Met office.

Soil Moisture deficits are running at over 30mm in the vast majority of the country....that in itself is rather unusual at any time of the year, never mind Springtime!

pedigree 6

highdef wrote: »

Well soil moisture deficits are already nearing 50mm in the east which is very unusual for this time of year. I can't remember if 50mm+ of soil moisture deficit is some sort of classification for drought conditions, as per the Irish Met office.

Soil Moisture deficits are running at over 30mm in the vast majority of the country....that in itself is rather unusual at any time of the year, never mind Springtime!

I'm starting to get short of grass myself and driving around the neighbours seem to be in the same boat. This is the time when we need the growth and moisture for big bulks of silage for winter. But it's just not there.:(
Getting a little worrying now.

highdef

Things will probably even out over the summer :mad: however if it does not, and if this type of weather regime continues over the summer, we WILL have problems.Deficits of over 40mm in the first few days of May can only increase greatly as solar radiation increases over the next 6+ weeks....assuming the weather regime conditions

RobertKK

A wet and windy May, fills the barns with corn and hay.

highdef

RobertKK wrote: »

A wet and windy May, fills the barns with corn and hay.

What does a drought filled May fill?

pedigree 6

RobertKK wrote: »

A wet and windy May, fills the barns with corn and hay.

If you find her, send her on to me.

Bleating Lamb

Is there much of a dew these mornings?...am spreading fertiliser on grazing ground that is very bare and am hoping there is enough of a dew to melt it in!

RobertKK

highdef wrote: »

What does a drought filled May fill?

Dread, I fear.

pedigree 6 wrote: »

If you find her, send her on to me.

Well I heard it said that May is delusional.

Bleating Lamb wrote: »

Is there much of a dew these mornings?...am spreading fertiliser on grazing ground that is very bare and am hoping there is enough of a dew to melt it in!

If one is lucky one might get some drizzle later tomorrow or on Saturday.

The later outlook for next week, Wednesday on is that it suppose to become more unsettled with low pressure more dominant.

Be nice if we got warm and thundery.

Harry Palmr

Talk of water restrictions in parts of the UK thanks to the last six/eight months.

JCX BXC

The wetter part of the garden here that's usually too waterlogged for good growth is thriving, and the dryer part is nearly dead, I've even had to water it!

ABlur

Hopefully not much I'm OK till September here on heavy ground!

pauldry

Dont ever call a thread that title

Its sure to rain for the whole Summer now though its been remarkably dry since October here bar one really wet day in March

All months in Sligo below normal rainfall for 5 or 6 months

Northern blocking n all that

Actually its worse than that

Just checked n our last month above average was JULY!!! 2016

See Markree

pedigree 6

pauldry wrote: »

Dont ever call a thread that title

It's staying that way now.
I'm hoping to invoke the weather gods.:p

Even if we get this low pressure next week, it looks like more high pressure after that.

What screwy thing is after happening with the weather/climate. Whether it's a new ice age or not.:p
But it looks like our anticyclonic conditions are directly tied to E.N.S.O and I don't think we can expect any big rainfall till an El Nino or back to La Nina starts.
We only got those threats from those Atlantic storms in december because it briefly dipped into La Nina for a time.
If there wasn't a tie before, I think there is now and with the forecast now for neutral conditions to continue for a few more months now. I think this country may be in for a deficit of rainfall like we've never seen before.

Edit (Well from the Atlantic. We could get sneaky lows from the east or south or thunderstorms from the south.)

pauldry

I saw a huge deficit of rainfall in 1976 when I was 2

But never 10 months in a row of below normal rainfall as will be the case if less than 100 percent rainfall this month, since I moved to Sligo 12 years ago.

Gonzo

nothing to worry about, we get far too much rain in this country far too often, enjoy a few dry days while it lasts.

RobertKK

Forecast has changed from turning unsettles to some showers later next week but will be light in nature.
Any rainfall will be small.

It doesn't want to rain...

DOCARCH

I just hope this year does not end up like 2012.

Had a very dry February and March that year, and relatively dry April and May.

Then June was very wet (here in Dublin 16). 25 rain days with 242mm of rain with predominant NE winds.

Simon Gruber Says

If it all came back in the form of intermittent thunderstorms in the evenings at the weekends, that'd be just fine.

One can dream.

weisses

Simon Gruber Says wrote: »

If it all came back in the form of intermittent thunderstorms in the evenings at the weekends, that'd be just fine.

One can dream.

Fixed that for you

sryanbruen

DOCARCH wrote: »

I just hope this year does not end up like 2012.

Had a very dry February and March that year, and relatively dry April and May.

Then June was very wet (here in Dublin 16). 25 rain days with 242mm of rain with predominant NE winds.

April 2012.... relatively dry? In Dublin.... . I'd understand you saying it was relatively dry if you were in the west (which it indeed was a relatively dry April) but you reside in Dublin like me and April 2012 was very wet especially towards the last week on the 25th and 29th. OR is your April rainfall total unusually high compared to the rest of us, including myself . April 2012 is my current wettest April on record.

According to my research I did about two months ago at this stage, April 2012 was a relatively wet month across Ireland as a whole with a mean % of average rainfall of 132% - which clearly showed how "relative" the dry weather was in the west and how wet the weather was in the east and south. See here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=102821215&postcount=1

But beware that graph does not consider Northern Ireland stations so the mean % of average rainfall would have been lower than it is because April 2012 wasn't particularly wet in Northern Ireland, totals were variable with western regions more favoured for dry weather.

To give my opinion on the situation, I don't think we'll see an event like 2012. Some characteristics of the 2010-2012 drought (in terms of Ireland, not GRANGE :P):

- Very cold Winter of 2009/10
- Dry period from January to June 2010
- Frequent sunnier than normal months of 2010 (Every month except July was sunnier than normal whilst September was variable)
- Calmest year on record in 2010
- Extremely cold December of 2010
- Very warm Spring of 2011
~ Warmest April on record
- Very cool Summer of 2011 (Coldest of the 21st century so far)
- Very warm Autumn of 2011
~ Second warmest November on record
- Warmest March on record in 2012

One, this dry spell has only been going on since last October and even then, February and March 2017 were wetter than average so kind of eased the possibility of a severe drought up to that point. Two, the last drought, 2010-2012 took place over two years albeit 2011 was a wetter than average year in many places so the "drought" wasn't significant at all unlike the drought of 1974-1976 - which also took place over two years. Three, there are no matches with the above characteristics. That does not mean an event like 2012 won't happen, it's just very unlikely.

Anyway, if you check my updates in the Spring and Summer Ahead thread, you will see that some models are predicting a wetter than average Summer. I have researched dry Aprils followed by dry Mays since 1990 and I have made these reanalysis pressure charts. Made using NOAA's Monthly/Seasonal Climate Composites, this reanalysis shows the pressure setup for summers that followed the said dry Aprils and dry Mays (in the same year)



Not surprisingly, the reanalysis has a very mish mash of summers with some very poor ones and some pretty decent ones. The reanalysis anyway shows a small trough to the south of the UK and very strong northern blocking bringing the flow in from the northeast. This looks like a poor Summer setup but what you have to consider is that the trough is to the south of the UK and is very weak so does not show a very soggy Summer possibility. It does show the possibility of an unsettled and changeable Summer nevertheless. In regards to temperatures, this would be quite a cool Summer setup given the wind direction is from the northeast. However, northeasterlies in Summer are not as cool as northwesterlies or northerlies so quite in between. Every one of the summers in the reanalysis are warmer than average however and even 1995 is in there, Ireland's warmest Summer on record.

I am on the edge now choosing between a decent Summer for 2017 or just a changeable, average to poor Summer for my predictions. In my December 2016 predictions for 2017, I predicted Summer 2017 to be a very good one given how similar Winter 2016/17 was to Winter 2005/06 and how Summer 2006 followed Winter 2005/06 with Summer 2006 being a brilliant Summer. Towards the end of May, I will do my final decision on what I think Summer 2017 will turn out like. Right now, I'm not seeing it as a very soggy Summer continuing the "drought" since last October.

pedigree 6

pauldry wrote: »

Dont ever call a thread that title

Its sure to rain for the whole Summer now though its been remarkably dry since October here bar one really wet day in March

All months in Sligo below normal rainfall for 5 or 6 months

Northern blocking n all that

Actually its worse than that

Just checked n our last month above average was JULY!!! 2016

See Markree

These drier than normal conditions started for me in June and continued into September. Even in September some farmers in south wexford were complaining of harvesting conditions but that rain never got to north wexford.
It also went up the east coast of wexford in September but we really escaped it.
There were some farmers feeding silage in Kilkenny and even some here in wexford in july and august because grass growth slowed up.

The met eireann summary to give an idea.

http://met.ie/climate/monthly-weather-reports.asp

Meteorite58

The GFS showing dry conditions for the most part up until about Thurs or Fri it seems and trending a few LP systems from +144 ( FI territory so open to change )

Xenji

It has only rained three times in Castlebar in the last 32 days, besides last Saturday the other two days had paltry measures of participation, for Mayo that is very good going looking over the last 10 years worth of charts.

pauldry

It will rain again from Mid June onwards

Most years we get fair weather in April or May up to the start of June and then it rains until September to bore the kids

erica74

Bleating Lamb wrote: »

Is there much of a dew these mornings?...am spreading fertiliser on grazing ground that is very bare and am hoping there is enough of a dew to melt it in!

There is. I'm up and out at around 5:30/6 most mornings and the grass is damp.

degsie

If rain is in doubt, then drought is about.










I just made that one up....

Rikand

pedigree 6 wrote: »

With the forecast giving rain first for next Tuesday and now it's being pushed back till Friday.:(

Will it ever rain again?:p

Oneiric 3

IMT 28 day running total (as compared to the 2007 - 2016 10 year average) from January 1st to May 5th:



Astoundingly dry in even what is on average, the driest portion of the year. At present, the current 4 week total stands at just 17.3 mm; considerably less than the average of 59.2mm for the same period.

All data sourced from Met Éireann.

RobertKK

First 4 months of 2012: 201.4mm
First 4 months of 2013: 252.8mm
First 4 months of 2014: 405.2mm
First 4 months of 2015: 175.8mm
First 4 months of 2016: 333.2mm
First 4 months of 2017: 227.4mm

They are the only years I have data for my weather station here north of Kilkenny city on the hills.
The average for those years is 266mm for the first 4 months so not that far off what has been the norm.

pauldry

Here in Sligo town

1st 4 months normally 450mm give or take

2017 first 4 months 270mm give or take

Plus first 7 days of May NIL assuming tomorrows dry.

Grass today in Sligo was crunchy and 2 more gorse fires burning nearby

The wettest day since april 7th here was 4mm on the 14th. I can see the rocks on the riverbed of the garavogue at low tide and the flow under the bridge at the glasshouse is a trickle

Sligo is having an official drought of 10 dry months (incl May) in a row

One really wet day in 2017 in March and another one on St Patricks Day that was reasonably wet led to flooding though I think it was coz of hard ground with no drainage

Tae laidir

Pauldry by name.
Paul Dry by observation! :D

Meteorite58

Water level very low in Lough Leane in Killarney today.

Mr Bumble

Lough Currane in Waterville is down to bones.....and seems to have a new prevailing wind - easterly.
Every time I've been out this year it's been an east wind of some variety and that's a repeat of the last three or four years.
The brother plays golf on Bull Island and the front nine at Royal Dublin is traditionally easier because you should have a westerly at your back and vice versa coming home. He reckons that more often that not in the same time span, the opposite is the case and others have noted the same.
Is there a tool out there to measure accumlated time for wind direction?

pauldry

Yes MT Cranium or Syranbreun

(Theyr not tools though)

heldel00

We planted bare root hedging about 4 weeks ago and we have only had one morning with a bit of rain since.
I have had to spend almost 2hrs watering it every evening. So effin pissed off. Praying for rain!

pedigree 6

I think it's only apt to put the satellite pic of the fires in Galway today in this thread.
(As devastating as it is for the people on the ground but the weather conditions are a help to this fire).:(

Bleating Lamb

Does it look like we will get much rain from Friday on the long term models?

sryanbruen

Bleating Lamb wrote: »

Does it look like we will get much rain from Friday on the long term models?

Here are the GFS ensembles for Dublin. In reality, it's not a lot of rain on Friday but considering how little rain we have received since March, it is a lot :P.

Elmer Blooker

I'm watching the rain teeming down in Madrid on the telly now before I go out to water my dying drought stricken plants ......... irony or what!

pauldry

In answer to the thread title.

YES for the next 10 days at least.

pedigree 6

pauldry wrote: »

In answer to the thread title.

YES for the next 10 days at least.

I don't see a big lot though (well not for the southeast ) the west will get it from this LP and then possibly the entire country on Sunday night Monday morning from this bulge on the isobars on this low coming up from the southwest.
But really the pressure on any of the days is not that low really.
The lowest on any of the days looks to be 995 and we're getting that at the moment.
So really we should be getting some convection going based on the pressure today.
It really looks to be 995 today and then rising again bar this blip on Sunday and then rising again.
(This is based on the gfs charts).
But with LP to the west for the next few days and a sw wind. It looks like thunderstorms maybe up around leitrim Sligo direction after they have built up over land but with land so dry atm it could be iffy too.

pedigree 6

pauldry wrote: »

In answer to the thread title.

YES for the next 10 days at least.

Ha! It's dropping rain here now.:D

Harry Palmr

Damn I was going to cut the grass, better get a move on!

Too late

JCX BXC

Sunny as fcuk and grass getting more yellow by the hour here in West Clare!

pauldry

End of May trending drier again so 7 to 10 days of rain and variable at that

Some areas could get lots and some not so much at all as its thundery.

Look at www.sat24.com now (thursday 11th may!)

The rain in Spain falls mainly on EVERYTHING

SEPT 23 1989

counted about six drops of rain this afternoon and now its back to the drought

Elmer Blooker

Rain approaching my parts, nothing heavy but I am looking forward to THAT smell when rain falls on parched earth after a long dry spell.

Chivito550

For those of you who are experts in the field, what is the likelihood of rain in Waterford City Saturday afternoon from 1pm to 4pm, and how heavy etc? I've a few track races I'm running there and hoping the rain stays away for that.

Gonzo

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Rain approaching my parts, nothing heavy but I am looking forward to THAT smell when rain falls on parched earth after a long dry spell.

had that smell earlier, was very intense.

DOCARCH

Gonzo wrote: »

had that smell earlier, was very intense.

Petrichor.

That's the name of the smell.