2017 UK General Election - 8th June

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The UK would lose it's budget rebate for certain in such a scenario. I doubt however that it would be made join Schengen or the Euro, but it would be made pay a political price.

I think there's be a price to be paid, but the main issue would not actually be the budget rebate, or the Euro or Schengen opt-outs. These are all things we know the EU can live with (because it has lived with them for many years).

Were the British to have a change of heart and seek to withdraw their A50 notice/apply for re-entry, I think the main concern in the chanceries of Europe would not be the budget rebate or the rebates. It would be whether, in re-admitting the UK, they would again be exposing themselves to the constant whinging, the uncontradicted lies in the yellow press, the regular throwing of toys out of the pram, the unrelenting negativity. I think they's want some evidence that there was broad consensus in the UK that partication in the Union was a good and desirable thing, and they'd want some reassurance that the political establishment in the UK was committed to the project, and would accept responsibility for promoting and defending it domestically.

Basically, the Union wouldn't want the UK back if it meant more of the same. They won't expose themselves to that again; why would they?

Valord wrote: »

This seems like a bit of a contradiction. On the one hand you say they could live without those things because they have before, but one the other you say they wouldn't be satisfied with what they had before, because that didn't work. I feel like exit from the EU would be much harder for a country that is part of the single currency compared to one with estranged, special status like the UK.

No contradiction. The budget rebate, Schengen opt-out and euro opt-out all worked - they kept the UK in the EU, and there was no reason why they couldn't have continued indefinitely. What took the UK out of the EU was a combination of ignorance and mendacity, rooted in a denial of the truth that the UK is just as interdependent with its neighbours and the rest of the world as any other country is.

EU membership was consistent with the rebate and the opt-outs. What it wasn't consistent with was the endless series of lies, deceit, falsehood and supressio veri about straigh bananas, the complete failure of the UK political establishment to take any responsibility or leadership in respondign to this and, in the end, the willingess of the Tory party to gamble with the UK's relationship with the EU for short-term party convenience. It's that attitude which would have to change before the EU could be comfortable with renewed UK membership.

Valord wrote: »

If the UK wished to rejoin the EU (and I don't think it would right now or in the short term), surely the EU would want to make them meet the same requirements as the rest of their members, so that they're more committed to the success of the project. Joining the EU but not the single currency almost seems like marrying someone but permanently keeping a bag of essential possessions beside the door so that you are nearly ready to walk out at any time.

The UK leaving is bad for the EU, and if the UK wanted to stay the EU would be very, very keen to facilitate that. It defies common sense to say that they would refuse to make accommodations that that have made before, and that are proven to be workable. The line in the sand would not be joining the euro or abandoning the rebate or whatever; it would be satisfying the EU that the attitudes and priorities which led to the Brexit referendum and its catastrophic outcome had been satisfactorily addressed, so that there was no realistic possiblity that we'd be back in here in the same position in 10 or 20 years time.