2017 UK General Election - 8th June

devnull · 02-05-2017 11:52AM

Here's what the Shadow Chancellor was up to on May Day:
https://twitter.com/Roh_Yakobi/status/859125633363980290

seamus · 02-05-2017 12:33PM

Seems a bit bizarre alright. Playing devil's advocate, it's a large rally and in other angles you can see people holding up flags referring to Chavez and Venezuela.

So in the same way that over here you'll see rallies for issues with Sinn Fein, communist and PBP flags everywhere, it's likely the same at this rally that there was a hodgepodge of parties and fringe groups all flying their flags. It doesn't mean that anyone who attends or speaks at the rally is a member or sympathiser with all of those groups, they all just have a common interest in the issue(s) being marched for.

The question I guess is why he gave the speech with those flags flying behind him. He should have known that wider-angle photos would look bad and should have asked for them to be put down while he spoke.

Or maybe those people decided to climb up there after he started speaking because they could see the cameras?

demfad · 02-05-2017 02:49PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I would presume, that her background (and her husbands) in finance would make her fully appreciate the dangers of a hard Brexit.

At the moment, I see her trying to out Farage the hard line Brexiters, so that even they will be begging her to step back from the abyss. As soon as they do that, she won.

She is not negotiating with Farage. She is negotiating with the EU27. She would be well advised to master issues actually relevant to the negotiation at hand.

The recent leak of the Juncker dinner will be the first of many election indications of just who amateurish and woefully misinformed the UK side is at this point in time.

She asked for a hard Brexit in the Tory convention and that is exactly what she is going to get. If she wants a trade deal she will have to make significant progress on Ireland's border, and sort the divorce bill and EU citizens issue.

If she cant even manage this the consequences will be catastrophic. Anyone looking at the evidence could tell her that things would end this way if they didnt get realistic with their expectations.

Barring an unlikely result in this election it is a case of Don Quijote for UK at thse negotiations and massive national embarrassment and catastrophe.

Zubeneschamali · 02-05-2017 03:20PM

demfad wrote: »

She is not negotiating with Farage. She is negotiating with the EU27.

Negotiations with the EU hardly matter to May - she is taking the UK out regardless, even with no deal ("no deal is better than a bad deal".)

Any fallout will be blamed on the Meanies in Brussels - the important point is to destroy UKIP and the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party by becoming more them than they are.

devnull · 02-05-2017 04:05PM

This is excruciating:
http://news.sky.com/video/when-the-maths-just-does-add-up-for-diane-abbott-10860592

Another one of Corbyn's close allies showing they are completely out of their depth, it's one of the most painful political interviews I've heard in a long while, it's no wonder the Tories are in the lead that they are, so much of the Labour Party is not fit for purpose.

Economically illiterate like most of Labour these days, so incoherent as well.

demfad · 02-05-2017 04:21PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Negotiations with the EU hardly matter to May - she is taking the UK out regardless, even with no deal ("no deal is better than a bad deal".)

Any fallout will be blamed on the Meanies in Brussels - the important point is to destroy UKIP and the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party by becoming more them than they are.

I actually thinks she believes she will succeed in the negotiations (she is deluding herself). If the Junker dinner is anything to go by she is genuinely woefully prepared while believing the opposite.

She doesn't believe no deal is better than a deal: this was for the daily Mail readers. There has been NO assessment done on the consequences of no deal since before the referendum, she knows this.

People in the UK think that no deal refers to default WTO rules. That is actually the least of their worries. The grave problem is regulation. The UK has no recognised regulatory bodies, all 32 are under the ECJ.

If there is no deal this is a massive black hole of legal and regulatory uncertainty. The delays for trade would be unthinkable: the 12 billion UK livestock industry would not survive.

As such a no-deal approached March 2019, the situation would start to resemble the Greek situation approaching default...

The UK MUST get a deal out of Brexit at least. They are starting to understand. When Junker said the recent dinner was 'extremely productive' he was being honest as the EU have been all the way through.

seamus · 02-05-2017 04:26PM

demfad wrote: »

I actually thinks she believes she will succeed in the negotiations (she is deluding herself). If the Junker dinner is anything to go by she is genuinely woefully prepared while believing the opposite.

I'm a little bit speechless about the reports coming out on that meeting/dinner.

So speechless about the apparent level of incompetence on May's part that I'm actually really skeptical about the accuracy of it.

Could she really be so clueless as to believe that this is more like a "you take this and we'll take that" divorce, rather than just being a country negotiating a trade treaty with a much larger bloc?

My heart is telling me that she's playing some kind of coy political game, cards close to her chest, etc., rather than just being completely incompetent. She couldn't be, right?

And what's worse, could the other political parties in the UK be such a shambles that they can't pick up on it and nail her to the wall on it? Prove that she has no idea how to negotiate Brexit?

demfad · 02-05-2017 04:28PM

seamus wrote: »

I'm a little bit speechless about the reports coming out on that meeting/dinner.

So speechless about the apparent level of incompetence on May's part that I'm actually really skeptical about the accuracy of it.

Could she really be so clueless as to believe that this is more like a "you take this and we'll take that" divorce, rather than just being a country negotiating a trade treaty with a much larger bloc?

My heart is telling me that she's playing some kind of coy political game, cards close to her chest, etc., rather than just being completely incompetent. She couldn't be, right?

Sure, it was leaked by the EU side so some spin granted but....

Remember she fired their best negotiator for being disloyal, for talking Brexit down?

Only those who believe or pretend to believe Brexit will be a success are allowed. Delusion is a requirement for team Brexit.

Jim2007 · 02-05-2017 05:19PM

seamus wrote: »

My heart is telling me that she's playing some kind of coy political game, cards close to her chest, etc., rather than just being completely incompetent. She couldn't be, right?

If she actually understood the issues, she'd know there is very little to play with. After all even a first year law student could have told her she'd loose the legal bid on the A50 issue and she still took it all the way to the Supreme Court!

seamus wrote: »

And what's worse, could the other political parties in the UK be such a shambles that they can't pick up on it and nail her to the wall on it? Prove that she has no idea how to negotiate Brexit?

The problem is that they'd have to deliver a lot of bad news and would should defeatist etc..

Sam Russell · 02-05-2017 05:55PM

demfad wrote: »

Sure, it was leaked by the EU side so some spin granted but....

Remember she fired their best negotiator for being disloyal, for talking Brexit down?

Only those who believe or pretend to believe Brexit will be a success are allowed. Delusion is a requirement for team Brexit.

What May fails to understand is that all matters will not be leaked by the EU but published, and openly discussed. Holding your cards close to your chest does not work too well in a hall of mirrors with your 27 opponents comparing notes.

As May might say - 'What can you do if we do not pay that €6 billion you want as a divorce settlement? - what, stop trading with us, - and stop the planes flying, well you can't do that! - Can you? Well, lets start again.?'

devnull · 02-05-2017 06:00PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

As May might say - 'What can you do if we do not pay that €6 billion you want as a divorce settlement? - what, stop trading with us, - and stop the planes flying, well you can't do that! - Can you? Well, lets start again.?'

Then the British Media will say the UK is being punished because they can't get their own way.

catbear · 02-05-2017 06:07PM

Whatever about what was said at the meeting what's for certain is that May is no longer an equal partner at the table, the EU and UK began diverging once A50 was accepted.

What the EU publish about the Brexit proceedings is entirely the EUs business.

Calina · 02-05-2017 06:43PM

seamus wrote: »

I'm a little bit speechless about the reports coming out on that meeting/dinner.

So speechless about the apparent level of incompetence on May's part that I'm actually really skeptical about the accuracy of it.

Could she really be so clueless as to believe that this is more like a "you take this and we'll take that" divorce, rather than just being a country negotiating a trade treaty with a much larger bloc?

My heart is telling me that she's playing some kind of coy political game, cards close to her chest, etc., rather than just being completely incompetent. She couldn't be, right?

And what's worse, could the other political parties in the UK be such a shambles that they can't pick up on it and nail her to the wall on it? Prove that she has no idea how to negotiate Brexit?

The problem as I see it is this: typically, we have been used to able, bright minds reaching the higher echelons in UK politics. But in tandem with the way media coverage has gone, we have seen more vacuous, less able people reaching the top. I'm not sure May would ever have made it without highly unusual events. Bear in mind that the expected heir apparent to Cameron was George Osborne.

The point which struck me most about the FAZ piece was her reported comment about what had happened with the JHA - that she expected to be able to opt out of the whole and then cherry pick the bits she liked (most of it). IIRC, that was negotiated by Labour at the end of their last period of government and it was one of those things that the UK benefited from because they were being accommodated as an EU member. I can see in one respect why she might think that something similar could be done this time; but she completed missed the fact that a) she didn't really negotiate it anyway and b) the key difference was this time they would not be an EU member.

That this cropped up suddenly made her whole behaviour very much more easily interpretable. The other interesting point was the implication that the EU side of the table felt she was not adequately briefed.

Deep down I really can't help suspecting that she has this hope that there will be some sort of Black Swan event that would completely change the landscape and allow her some sort of a way out, the sort of one that leads to Addresses to the Nation on all four TV channels.

In the meantime, she really needs to operate on the basis that there won't be a nick of time saving event (and that would have to be some sort of crisis), and if she were wise, there are take away lessons for her.

1) if she is not being briefed properly, this needs to change. Identify where the gaps are - are they in her own advisers - are they from her members of her cabinet.

2) the UK is demonstrably in a weak position because they look to be unprepared and unfamiliar with what they have to do. This needs to change. They need to get organised and fast. Of course, running an election in the middle was a class act - I consider it a Tsipras level move but then, he's still in power so potentially he got out of the snap referendum exercise what he wanted (removal of a Minister I suspect).

3) The Tory party has tended to make an enemy of the civil service. This has to stop and they need to start taking them seriously because the civil service has institutional memory.

4) It might be worth looking at their options to attract fonctionnaires home from the EU. Not just trade negotiators, but people who genuinely know their way around the institutions and are multilingual in EU related languages.

5) The response to the FAZ story was way too late and watery. Amber Rudd's comments today were also non-constructive and continued to build on the narrative that the British are all at sea with neither a compass nor anchor.

With respect to the opposition, there are a couple of problems: most competent opposition is coming from Scotland in the form of Nicola Sturgeon She is not in Westminster so can to a great extent be (and is) ignored. Corbyn was not in favour of the EU anyway and insofar as he did any canvassing, it was highly watery at best. He is also not fully supported by his own parliamentary party. And FPTP means that the Lib Dems can shout all they like but they are doing it from a base of less than 2% of Westminster seats.

catbear · 02-05-2017 07:37PM

Calina wrote: »

The point which struck me most about the FAZ piece was her reported comment about what had happened with the JHA - that she expected to be able to opt out of the whole and then cherry pick the bits she liked (most of it). IIRC, that was negotiated by Labour at the end of their last period of government and it was one of those things that the UK benefited from because they were being accommodated as an EU member. I can see in one respect why she might think that something similar could be done this time; but she completed missed the fact that a) she didn't really negotiate it anyway and b) the key difference was this time they would not be an EU member.

Good point Calina, that bit stood out for me too and you sum it up perfectly with the last line.

They're going from being the member with the most opt-outs to being outside like every other non member yet retaining untenable expectations of opt-ins. I won't be surprised if it's dawning on May now that she has no favours when sitting across the table from the EU.

Fratton Fred · 02-05-2017 07:50PM

If the FAZ story is true, it makes you wonder why it was leaked.

It is a pretty sure fire way of pissing off people, or maybe that is Juncker's plan. He has nothing to lose and can concentrate on just making himself look good.

marienbad · 02-05-2017 08:04PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If the FAZ story is true, it makes you wonder why it was leaked.

It is a pretty sure fire way of pissing off people, or maybe that is Juncker's plan. He has nothing to lose and can concentrate on just making himself look good.

Why would he bother ?

Fratton Fred · 02-05-2017 08:08PM

marienbad wrote: »

Why would he bother ?

just to discredit the other side? Who knows, but he hasn't exactly distanced himself from it.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-05-2017 08:08PM

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/30/young-must-vote-general-election-8-june

Around 75% of people aged 65 and over will vote in this election; unless something thunderously radical happens in the next six weeks, only around 42% of 18- to 24-year-olds will do the same. The over-65s coming out to vote and the under-24s staying in has been the norm for the past few decades. This is why we’re now all hearing so much about the pros and cons of the triple lock on pensions, but absolutely nothing about student fees and housing benefit.
...

It’s no coincidence that the collapse in the 18- to 24-year-old vote has seen the advent of tuition fees, reductions in housing benefit for 18- to 21-year-olds, the scrapping of the education maintenance allowance, no entry to the “national living wage” until the age of 25, and cuts to student disability allowances.

Register by 22 May to vote in the General Election on 8 June.
https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

Calina · 02-05-2017 08:14PM

It is glaringly obvious why it was leaked. The UK government is not dealing with reality and that message needs to get out in the hope they start dealing with reality.

Your response could be to get pissed off, brush it off as an opening salvo or just possibly review where you are at and learn from the message. The UK has a weak hand here but they are also playing cards like they think they are playing snap when the cards have been dealt for bridge.

I would have more hope if May popped up and said, look, Brexit is a decision which is not in the UK's economic interests but as you have voted for it, we will implement it. These are the sacrifices which we will need to be making. I will work with the EU to see how we can best implement this but you must remember Brexit means Brexit and we will need to recognise that it will bring pain. Higher personal taxes. Less funding for hospitals and schools.

She would get eaten by the press but she might get a better deal afterwards. She is more likely to by dealing with reality.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-05-2017 08:16PM

seamus wrote: »

My heart is telling me that she's playing some kind of coy political game, cards close to her chest, etc., rather than just being completely incompetent. She couldn't be, right?

“Looking Like I Have No Plan Is Part Of My Plan” May Confirms

can't find the link but one of the Lib Dems was on about May's office regularly used leaks

So far all the cards we've seen are fairly worthless, and folded very fast.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/brexit-negotiations-will-be-brutal-nasty-and-potentially-short-1.3066989

She will be dismayed by the refusal to do sectoral deals: the UK has clearly been hoping for something specific for cars and financial services.

If there was to be a sacrifice in this area, I suspect the British were going to offer up their farmers.

...
A key event for those negotiations will be Theresa May’s first cabinet reshuffle. This will most likely take place in the middle of June, shortly after her landslide general election victory. Will Johnson, Fox and Davis, the three hapless Brexiteers, keep their jobs? If Britain is serious about negotiations, at least two of these men will have to be replaced by proper politicians. The choice of their replacements will be very revealing of May’s intentions, about which we still know so little.

Fratton Fred · 02-05-2017 08:37PM

Calina wrote: »

It is glaringly obvious why it was leaked. The UK government is not dealing with reality and that message needs to get out in the hope they start dealing with reality.

Your response could be to get pissed off, brush it off as an opening salvo or just possibly review where you are at and learn from the message. The UK has a weak hand here but they are also playing cards like they think they are playing snap when the cards have been dealt for bridge.

I would have more hope if May popped up and said, look, Brexit is a decision which is not in the UK's economic interests but as you have voted for it, we will implement it. These are the sacrifices which we will need to be making. I will work with the EU to see how we can best implement this but you must remember Brexit means Brexit and we will need to recognise that it will bring pain. Higher personal taxes. Less funding for hospitals and schools.

The eu seem obsessed with the settlement figure, even though no real breakdown of their figures have been published.

Are they softening up the voters of the remaining countries to cough up more to make up the hole in the finances that will inevitably happen?

It won't be the eu's fault, of course. It will be the British refusing to pay.

Lemming · 02-05-2017 09:08PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If the FAZ story is true, it makes you wonder why it was leaked.

It is a pretty sure fire way of pissing off people, or maybe that is Juncker's plan. He has nothing to lose and can concentrate on just making himself look good.

Have you considered that leak was not for a British audience perhaps? Maybe a german business audience as the newspaper in question is aimed at? Y'know, preparing businesses for a possibly catastrophic end-result to negotiations? Just a thought

... Or are you going to suggest that the article was printed in German just to p1ss off the British?

ancapailldorcha · 02-05-2017 09:12PM

I think the 27 EU states have every right to know what's going on in these negotiations. It says a lot about the Brexiteer and tabloid way of thinking that they think that Juncker's motivated to make May look bad. She's accomplishing that just fine all by herself. Here's just one example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixwq3KJwy54

murphaph · 02-05-2017 09:44PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If the FAZ story is true, it makes you wonder why it was leaked.

It is a pretty sure fire way of pissing off people, or maybe that is Juncker's plan. He has nothing to lose and can concentrate on just making himself look good.

If the FAZ story is true then he probably thought he has little other choice than to try to make the British public aware that their government is on a hiding to nothing and that they should consider very carefully who they vote for next month. Juncker and Merkel would even now quite happily accept the UK back in, a little chastened for good measure.

Fratton Fred · 02-05-2017 09:51PM

Lemming wrote: »

Have you considered that leak was not for a British audience perhaps? Maybe a german business audience as the newspaper in question is aimed at? Y'know, preparing businesses for a possibly catastrophic end-result to negotiations? Just a thought

maybe.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think the 27 EU states have every right to know what's going on in these negotiations. It says a lot about the Brexiteer and tabloid way of thinking that they think that Juncker's motivated to make May look bad. She's accomplishing that just fine all by herself. Here's just one example:

I haven't heard that from anyone, I only suggested it as a possibility.

Lets face it though, reading this thread, there are those that lap up every word he says so blaming everything that goes wrong on the British will be swallowed very easily.

murphaph wrote: »

If the FAZ story is true then he probably thought he has little other choice than to try to make the British public aware that their government is on a hiding to nothing and that they should consider very carefully who they vote for next month. Juncker and Merkel would even now quite happily accept the UK back in, a little chastened for good measure.

that's very public spirited of him.

youreadthat · 02-05-2017 10:22PM

murphaph wrote: »

If the FAZ story is true then he probably thought he has little other choice than to try to make the British public aware that their government is on a hiding to nothing and that they should consider very carefully who they vote for next month. Juncker and Merkel would even now quite happily accept the UK back in, a little chastened for good measure.

You don't know the British public I see!

Jim2007 · 03-05-2017 12:08AM

murphaph wrote: »

If the FAZ story is true then he probably thought he has little other choice than to try to make the British public aware that their government is on a hiding to nothing and that they should consider very carefully who they vote for next month. Juncker and Merkel would even now quite happily accept the UK back in, a little chastened for good measure.

We're way past that at this stage. The idea that the decision can be reversed comes from U.K. views on common law, which fail to take account of the fact that the ECJ makes decisions primarily based on civil law.

demfad · 03-05-2017 09:43AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

We're way past that at this stage. The idea that the decision can be reversed comes from U.K. views on common law, which fail to take account of the fact that the ECJ makes decisions primarily based on civil law.

Tusk and others have already said that in his opinion the UK could come back.
The Dublin case will be finished in the ECJ by 2019 so we will have a legal answer.
I believe in all cases the 27 could agree to a revocation which would be likely.

Valord · 03-05-2017 10:01AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think the 27 EU states have every right to know what's going on in these negotiations. It says a lot about the Brexiteer and tabloid way of thinking that they think that Juncker's motivated to make May look bad. She's accomplishing that just fine all by herself. Here's just one example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixwq3KJwy54

It's kind of amazing how many tough questions this guy is willing to ask, and he doesn't sugar-coat them with politeness either. Good for him though, I suppose, I wish more countries were like this.

murphaph · 03-05-2017 10:05AM

demfad wrote: »

Tusk and others have already said that in his opinion the UK could come back.
The Dublin case will be finished in the ECJ by 2019 so we will have a legal answer.
I believe in all cases the 27 could agree to a revocation which would be likely.

Exactly. The UK leaving is not good for the EU as a whole. I believe the EU is more pragmatic than many seem to believe and will happily and unanimously accept a withdrawal of A50 and if some Leaver forced the ECJ to determine the legality that even if it was not deemed allowable, the EU27 would simply allow the UK to become a new member through a QMV, which would certainly pass IMO.

Despite May & Co. Nobody really wants the UK to leave.

2017 UK General Election - 8th June

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