FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Indications still there for settled Hp weather and drier from next weekend . With the extra hour of daylight looks like a good week to get stuck into the garden. Doesn't look overly warm at this stage to me though.

This would be an interesting cold snap if it came off. Snow on the hills of Donegal perhaps Would make for some interesting wintry showers of hail and thunder with huge convection perhaps powered by the strengthening sun and unstable layers above , definitely FI though .

What a difference in the 12Z run. Completely different set up and much more benign !

Cool this week coming ( bit milder towards the weekend ) but could the week after be even colder with some wintry weather perhaps. Models in more of an agreement now with a deep plunge of very cold mid level and upper temps. Models swaying over and back a bit as is often the case with HPs so dominant and blocking. Time will tell what airmass will win out.

Yes models looking like they did a number of days ago after flip flopping over and back a bit, now looking very cold in what looks like a fresh Northerly airflow for a few days. Preliminary look at foretasted temps would suggest staying below 10C and look like being somewhere around 6 to 8C during daytime with sharp frosts for large parts of the country at night Mon - Fri. Would be a fair wind chill in the wind. I thought the HP might block but the last few runs would suggest not. At this stage the charts are showing some wintry precipitation next week, impossible to pin point and yes snow showing up on the prediction charts, you would think mountain tops at this time of year but you never know . Will be an interesting time for weather watching.

By the end of next week the GFS says HP building over Ireland again, the ECMWF completely different with a low pressure system nudging towards us originating from Canada.

Still in FI territory but looking fresh and cold in those winds if it materializes anything like on those charts.



Windchill

The ECM on its own showing this LP system showing very tight gradient, the GEM has something similar but less formed South of Ireland and the GFS is more in favour of HP nearby. Long way off. Kinda feel we need something like this to shake up the weather and draw up some warm tropical air.
The Jet looks to be keeping a route North of Ireland going into May.

Be nice if this came off next week. ECM not as good, will see what the 12Z shows later.

IMO GFS showing warming up each day from Tues with Thurs and Fri looking quite warm at this stage and it is showing the warm weather hanging around over the week end , a long way off though to know for certain.

ECMWF has improved on the latest 0z run. Looking better then the GFS for after tues . Probably better temps on the W side of the country due to E ly winds.

Promising