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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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05-03-2017 8:39pm#1
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teddybones wrote: »Good Lord the end of latest gfs run looks terrifying. I know is at end of run and will likely disappear but I have a wedding in West Wicklow in the mountains. Eek. Murphy's law and all that
March......in like a lion, out like a lamb tiger. :pac:0 -
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Indications still there for settled Hp weather and drier from next weekend . With the extra hour of daylight looks like a good week to get stuck into the garden. Doesn't look overly warm at this stage to me though.
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High pressure showing up for the best part of next week after Monday it seems with settled dry weather, looks like temps in the low to mid teens and some frosty nights. GFS , GEM and ECM showing High Pressure over us from about Tues to Sat getting up to 1040 hPa. and looks fairly steady at around 1030 to 1035 hPa.
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This would be an interesting cold snap if it came off. Snow on the hills of Donegal perhaps
Would make for some interesting wintry showers of hail and thunder with huge convection perhaps powered by the strengthening sun and unstable layers above , definitely FI though .
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I'm dreaming of a white Easter?Meteorite58 wrote: »Easter weekend looking cold at this stage, wind from a northely flow I would think. Frosty nights
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HP dominating the weather next week with all models in agreement then after next week end well out in FI at +240hr the ECM out on its own showing a big change in the weather with areas of low pressure moving down from Scandinavia with a plunge in 850 hPa temperatures and what would look probably quite unsettled ,wintry and windy if it materialized. Long way off and maybe an outlier, will need to see a couple of more runs but interesting.
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Difference in the Models , no surprise, but ECM trending cooler/ perhaps unsettled after next week end in latest runs showing a long fetch of cold airs coming down from Polar regions. Weather being so quite atm for something to do I'm going to follow this through to see how well the model is fairing with this set up.
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Cool this week coming ( bit milder towards the weekend ) but could the week after be even colder with some wintry weather perhaps. Models in more of an agreement now with a deep plunge of very cold mid level and upper temps. Models swaying over and back a bit as is often the case with HPs so dominant and blocking. Time will tell what airmass will win out.
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Captain Snow wrote: »BBC 10 day outlook going for some sort of High Pressure migrating west.....linking up with Greenland high......cold northerly flow over Ireland and the UK.
When looking forward to snow you always hope it will fall in er......em...... late April.0 -
IMO HP seems to be winning out in the latest runs with both the ECMWF and GEM holding the encroaching colder LP system over Europe early next week. GFS showing colder mid level and uppers then the ECMWF next week . All showing HP later in the runs.
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Yes models looking like they did a number of days ago after flip flopping over and back a bit, now looking very cold in what looks like a fresh Northerly airflow for a few days. Preliminary look at foretasted temps would suggest staying below 10C and look like being somewhere around 6 to 8C during daytime with sharp frosts for large parts of the country at night Mon - Fri. Would be a fair wind chill in the wind. I thought the HP might block but the last few runs would suggest not. At this stage the charts are showing some wintry precipitation next week, impossible to pin point and yes snow showing up on the prediction charts, you would think mountain tops at this time of year but you never know
. Will be an interesting time for weather watching.
By the end of next week the GFS says HP building over Ireland again, the ECMWF completely different with a low pressure system nudging towards us originating from Canada.
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The ECM on its own showing this LP system showing very tight gradient, the GEM has something similar but less formed South of Ireland and the GFS is more in favour of HP nearby. Long way off. Kinda feel we need something like this to shake up the weather and draw up some warm tropical air.
The Jet looks to be keeping a route North of Ireland going into May.
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IMO at this stage the LP at the beginning of the weekend looking more flabby and more off to the NW. Frontal wind and rain perhaps Fri eve and overnight into Sat and perhaps a showery weekend but looks like becoming a bit more settled again after that with improving temperatures.
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