April 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 28-03-2017 8:03am #1

1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value for April is 8.4 C. (max 25 points)

2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during April. (max 20 points)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

4. Predict the PRC in April (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) for April as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

6. For a BONUS question (10 points), we will utilize the fact that there are now ten regular reports of sunshine hours in the daily data. These come from six that we use in the contest (Belmullet, Cork, Valentia, Shannon, Dublin, Casement) as well as Malin Head, Knock, Gurteen and Johnstown Castle. So for Easter Sunday which is the 16th, predict the maximum amount of sunshine (for seven points) and which of these ten locations will either record it or share it (for three points, two available for second place and one for third in the sunshine sweepstakes). A superbonus of one point for anyone who can finish top three in both categories (must score max of three for location). Forecast should be in hours and tenths of hours (e.g., 4.2 hrs) and the maximum possible is about 13 in the south to 14 in the north.

Enter by the deadline of 0300h Saturday 1st of April, after which penalties run at 1 point every 3h or portion late to 1800h 2nd (at this point the penalty stands at 15 points) then 1 point per hour after that.

Good luck!

sryanbruen · 28-03-2017 5:10pm

sryanbruen __________ 9.1 _ 21.0_ -1.0 _ 90_ 110_ 10 hours, Dublin Airport

Bsal · 29-03-2017 12:20am

Bsal __________ 8.7 _ 20.3_ -0.8 _ 105_ 112_ 8.7 hours, Casement

Rikand · 29-03-2017 9:41am

Rikand.... 9.0..... 22.5..... -1.0.... 90.... 120.... 8.0 Johnstown Castle

200motels · 29-03-2017 9:33pm

200motels

9.1 _ 22.2_ -1.0 _ 92_ 111_ 9 hours, Dublin Airport

JCX BXC · 29-03-2017 10:29pm

JXC BXC______________8.4c__22.5c__-0.5c__115__89__6 Johnstown Castle

sdanseo · 29-03-2017 11:38pm

First time entry to this, I think. Sure why not!

sdanseo________8.9__21.4__-2.1__104__108__9.6, Johnstown Castle

M.T. Cranium · 30-03-2017 7:33am

MTC _____ 9.4 __ 23.0 __ -1.8 __ 090 __ 115 ___ 7.5h Cork

pauldry · 30-03-2017 10:41am

Pauldry _____ 9.0 __ 22.8 __ -1.1 __ 088 __ 111 ___ 7.8h Dublin

dasa29 · 31-03-2017 12:48am

Dasa29 _____ 9.0__ 20.0 __ -1.5 __ 100 __ 110 ___ 7h Valentia

John mac · 31-03-2017 6:50am

john mac _____ 8.7 __ 22.0 __ -2.0 __ 110 __ 102 ___ 8.9h shannon

DOCARCH · 31-03-2017 11:58am

DOCARCH __________ 8.8 _ 20.7_ -2.1 _ 94_ 112_ 9.2 hours, Johnstown Castle

sunflower3 · 31-03-2017 7:39pm

Sunflower3 __________ 9.2 _ 21.7_ -1.3 _ 105_ 115_ 6.5 hours, Johnstown Castle

kindredspirit · 31-03-2017 8:36pm

Kindred Spirit _____ 9.2 ___ 21.5 ___ -1.0° ___102 ___ 116 ___ 7.0. Johnstown Castle

Tae laidir · 31-03-2017 10:33pm

Tae laidir __________ 9.3 _ 19.5 _ -1.3 _ 88 _ 113 _ 5.9 hours, Costa Malin.

rameire · 31-03-2017 11:33pm

Rameire _____ 8.6 __ 21.0 __ -2.0 __ 103 __ 105 ___ 9.8h Valencia

mickger844posts · 31-03-2017 11:40pm

mickger844posts_________ 9.4 _ 20.6_ -1.0 _ 90_ 110_ 8 hours, Johnstown Castle

dacogawa · 31-03-2017 11:48pm

Dacogawa_________ 8.9 _ 23.8_ -1.1 _ 111_ 91_ 5.8hours, Valencia

Water John · 31-03-2017 11:50pm

First time entry

waterjohn 8.6 22.1 -2 95 105 10.1 Johnstown Castle

mrskinner · 01-04-2017 12:05am

Skinner...........9.1........22.1.......-2.1........91........111...........7.1h..Cork

Joe Public · 01-04-2017 10:25am

Joe Public _____ 9.9 __ 24.9 __ -1.9 __ 085 __ 120 ___ 10.2h Belmullet

Jpmarn · 01-04-2017 4:04pm

Jpmarn_____ 9.8__ 21.5 __ -1.5__ 085___120___ 5.5h Shannon
I am an April fool!

M.T. Cranium · 02-04-2017 1:02am

Table of Forecasts for April 2017

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Max sun 16th

Joe Public ___ (-3) _______ 9.9 _ 24.9 _ -1.9 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 10.2h Belmullet
Jpmarn _____ (-5) _______ 9.8 _ 21.5 _ -1.5 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 5.5h Shannon
M.T. Cranium ___________ 9.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 7.5h Cork
mickger844posts_________ 9.4 _ 20.6 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas
Tae laidir ______________ 9.3 _ 19.5 _ -1.3 _ 088 _ 113 ____ 5.9h Malin
sunflower3 _____________ 9.2 _ 21.7 _ -1.3 _ 105 _ 115 ____ 6.5h Johns Cas
Kindred Spirit ___________ 9.2 _ 21.5 _ -1.0 _ 102 _ 116 ____ 7.0h Johns Cas
200motels ______________9.1 _ 22.2 _ -1.0 _ 092 _ 111 ____ 9.0h Dublin A
MrSkinner ______________ 9.1 _ 22.1 _ -2.1 _ 091 _ 111 ____ 7.1h Cork
sryanbruen _____________ 9.1 _ 21.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.0h Dublin A
Rikand _________________9.0 _ 22.5 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas

Con Sensus _____________ 9.0 _ 21.7 _ -1.3 _ 092 _ 111 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas

sdanseo ________________8.9 _ 21.4 _ -2.1 _ 104 _ 108 ____ 9.6h Johns Cas
Pauldry ________________ 9.0 _ 22.8 _ -1.1 _ 088 _ 111 ____ 7.8h Dublin A
Dasa29 ________________ 9.0 _ 20.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 7.0h Valentia
Dacogawa ______________ 8.9 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 111 _ 091 ____ 5.8h Valentia
DOCARCH ______________ 8.8 _ 20.7 _ -2.1 _ 094 _ 112 ____ 9.2h Johns Cas
John mac _______________8.7 _ 22.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 102 ____ 8.9h Shannon
Bsal ___________________8.7 _ 20.3 _ -0.8 _ 105 _ 112 ____ 8.7h Casement
waterjohn ______________ 8.6 _ 22.1 _ -2.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 10.1 Johns Cas
Rameire _______________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -2.0 _ 103 _ 105 ____ 9.8h Valentia
JXC BXC________________8.4 _ 22.5 _ -0.5 _ 115 _ 089 ____ 6.0h Johns Cas

NormaL ________________ 8.4 _ 21.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 6.9h (see note)
____________________________________________________________

First of all, welcome to Danseo and Water John, hope you enjoy the contest.

Con Sensus is currently 11th ranked (median) value of 21 forecasts. I can see two regulars not on board yet, so this could change.

For the normal value of maximum sunshine, I took the overall average of all stations (about 4.6 hours) and added 50% for random distribution. As to how NormaL might score for location, I will give them 3 points if it's Belmullet or Johnstown Castle, 2 if any station in Munster or Casement, and 1 elsewhere. For you, the points are determined by the three stations that finish 1-2-3 on the day.

The reputation of the sunny southeast has influenced the picks, I think. Johnstown Castle got 8 votes. Valentia and Dublin A had 3 votes, Cork and Shannon 2 each, Belmullet, Casement and Malin 1 apiece. There was no love for Gurteen or Knock.

In general, our crew looks for a warmer than average April with somewhat less rain and more sun than average. Nobody went below the 1981-2010 average of 8.4 C, one placed their bet on the tie.

Well, good luck to everyone.

pauldry · 02-04-2017 11:44am

Has MT played an April Fool on us all. His forecast says 18c today but no more than 17c and the "heatwave" looks a bit dodgy too.

Still hes right 9999 times outta 10000.

Anyways -0.7c in Mullingar this morning

M.T. Cranium · 02-04-2017 5:41pm

Well the joke may be on me, but I just posted over on that "heat wave" thread about my thinking for next week, really hard for me to see how temps will be held down in all of Ireland under the sort of thickness values presented on the models, and I've suggested having a mini-contest regarding the highest temperature during the period Tuesday to Friday -- my punt being 20.

I will be really surprised if during those four days nobody breaks 18. However from the met E forecast I read most recently, I think the implication is a maximum lower than that, maybe 16 reading between the lines. But they may be talking exclusively about Tuesday-Wednesday. I can see some reason for caution too, the high has drifted into the Atlantic from Labrador so it will have a rather muted thermal profile, however, thickness parameters look borderline "heat wave" material and I tend to place more faith in thickness than 850 mb temps when the sun comes out. The April sun is strong enough to break down inversions fairly early in the day so morning frost won't linger past 0700h. I think it will turn into one of those glorious stretches of clear weather for the south at least with big temperature ranges and feeling very warm in places like inland west Munster possibly right out to the Atlantic coast with just weak sea breezes.

Could be wrong though, pauldry is way too generous with his accuracy rating there.

waterways · 04-04-2017 10:10am

oh I forgot to take part, hope I will not get minus points for late late late entry
waterways __________ 8.8_ 22.0_ -1.5 _ 110_ 103_ 4 hours, Valentia

M.T. Cranium · 04-04-2017 6:55pm

Okay, I was looking at the penalty points and I made some kind of minor error there in saying that "at this point it is 15 points" after 39 hours 0300h 1st to 1800h on 2nd, that should say 13 points or else I was thinking the 3 hour intervals should run to end of 2nd when it would indeed be 15 (and not 19 as per the formula).

Either way you're looking at a deduction of 49 to 53 points. A small compensation would be that you might have better guidance for the bonus question as well as everything else and perhaps have a 10 point advantage that way.

There is also the 10 point minimum score rule to prevent any negative outcomes.

I will put you in at minus 50 and hope you score more than that, but obviously this will be one of your two dropped months, still might as well have a go, if you're 100% accurate with that forecast, I can't see too many people scoring much more than 50 off their numbers.

Will try to edit the table or repost as this will change Con Sensus slightly too.

M.T. Cranium · 04-04-2017 7:05pm

Updated table of forecasts for April 2017

No edit function available so here we go with an updated table.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Max sun 16th

Joe Public ___ (-3) _______ 9.9 _ 24.9 _ -1.9 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 10.2h Belmullet
Jpmarn _____ (-5) _______ 9.8 _ 21.5 _ -1.5 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 5.5h Shannon
M.T. Cranium ___________ 9.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 7.5h Cork
mickger844posts_________ 9.4 _ 20.6 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas
Tae laidir _______________9.3 _ 19.5 _ -1.3 _ 088 _ 113 ____ 5.9h Malin
sunflower3 _____________ 9.2 _ 21.7 _ -1.3 _ 105 _ 115 ____ 6.5h Johns Cas
Kindred Spirit ___________ 9.2 _ 21.5 _ -1.0 _ 102 _ 116 ____ 7.0h Johns Cas
200motels ______________9.1 _ 22.2 _ -1.0 _ 092 _ 111 ____ 9.0h Dublin A
MrSkinner ______________ 9.1 _ 22.1 _ -2.1 _ 091 _ 111 ____ 7.1h Cork
sryanbruen _____________ 9.1 _ 21.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.0h Dublin A
Rikand _________________9.0 _ 22.5 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas

Con Sensus _____________ 9.0 _ 21.6 _ -1.3 _ 093 _ 111 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas

Pauldry ________________ 9.0 _ 22.8 _ -1.1 _ 088 _ 111 ____ 7.8h Dublin A
Dasa29 ________________ 9.0 _ 20.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 7.0h Valentia
Dacogawa ______________ 8.9 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 111 _ 091 ____ 5.8h Valentia
sdanseo ________________8.9 _ 21.4 _ -2.1 _ 104 _ 108 ____ 9.6h Johns Cas
waterways ____ (-50) _____8.8 _ 22.0 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 103 ____ 4.0h Valentia
DOCARCH ______________ 8.8 _ 20.7 _ -2.1 _ 094 _ 112 ____ 9.2h Johns Cas
John mac _______________8.7 _ 22.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 102 ____ 8.9h Shannon
Bsal ___________________8.7 _ 20.3 _ -0.8 _ 105 _ 112 ____ 8.7h Casement
waterjohn ______________ 8.6 _ 22.1 _ -2.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 10.1 Johns Cas
Rameire _______________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -2.0 _ 103 _ 105 ____ 9.8h Valentia
JXC BXC________________8.4 _ 22.5 _ -0.5 _ 115 _ 089 ____ 6.0h Johns Cas

NormaL ________________ 8.4 _ 21.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 6.9h (see note)
____________________________________________________________

First of all, welcome to sdanseo and Water John, hope you enjoy the contest.
I have now included the (considerably) late entry from Waterways. See discussion above this post.

Con Sensus is adjusted to mean of 11th and 12th ranked (median) value of 22 forecasts.

For the normal value of maximum sunshine, I took the overall average of all stations (about 4.6 hours) and added 50% for random distribution. As to how NormaL might score for location, I will give them 3 points if it's Belmullet or Johnstown Castle, 2 if any station in Munster or Casement, and 1 elsewhere. For you, the points are determined by the three stations that finish 1-2-3 on the day.

The reputation of the sunny southeast has influenced the picks, I think. Johnstown Castle got 8 votes. Valentia now has 4 and Dublin A 3 votes, Cork and Shannon 2 each, Belmullet, Casement and Malin 1 apiece. There was no love for Gurteen or Knock.

In general, our crew looks for a warmer than average April with somewhat less rain and more sun than average. Nobody went below the 1981-2010 average of 8.4 C, one placed their bet on the tie.

Well, good luck to everyone.

waterways · 05-04-2017 2:45pm

Sorry for causing trouble and work.

That was not my intention. I had no time to have a look at models so even the bonus question is just a guess.

M.T. Cranium · 06-04-2017 7:44am

No worries, the amount of work was perhaps five minutes. I am pretty fast at editing tables now after ten years of contest organizing.

I am really sorry about the huge time penalty but you know how it is, rules are rules and if I bend them for one, then I might as well not have any.

It's best ten of twelve anyway so it won't be a fatal blow by any means.

M.T. Cranium · 08-04-2017 10:19pm

After one week ...

IMT at 9.0, which runs 1.0 above the average for the period.

PRC at 34% of normal, only Valentia came anywhere close to a normal amount.

SUN only 72% of normal, not bad considering 5th and 6th were almost totally overcast.

Min and max probably set on 8th, will be updating those tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 09-04-2017 8:37pm

MAX 18.7 and MIN --1.2 after the 8th (two locations for each)

MIN is not done yet, I would say, MAX probably not either (but could take a while).

Tae laidir · 12-04-2017 6:00pm

Models indicating that South & South-East have best chance of (not very) sunny Easter Sunday.

pauldry · 12-04-2017 7:30pm

Yup anywhere in the North and West looks screwed for sun hours... maybe Belmullet which has its own climate independent to the rest of Ireland.

Also looks like IMT is going down for the rest of April.

We are stuck in a Northwest flow more or less.

This has happened before in recent Summers and its hard to get rid of once its locked in.

Id say well be lucky if any of us finish right on the money with IMT.

Looking like a 8.0c month at best now possibly 7.5c

I went for 22.8c max too:rolleyes:. What country was I thinking of?

sryanbruen · 12-04-2017 8:45pm

pauldry wrote: »

Yup anywhere in the North and West looks screwed for sun hours... maybe Belmullet which has its own climate independent to the rest of Ireland.

Also looks like IMT is going down for the rest of April.

We are stuck in a Northwest flow more or less.

This has happened before in recent Summers and its hard to get rid of once its locked in.

Id say well be lucky if any of us finish right on the money with IMT.

Looking like a 8.0c month at best now possibly 7.5c

I went for 22.8c max too:rolleyes:. What country was I thinking of?

Meanwhile, the rainfall looks like being significantly below average.

Rikand · 13-04-2017 10:13am

Tae laidir wrote: »

Models indicating that South & South-East have best chance of (not very) sunny Easter Sunday.

Come on Johnstown Castle

pauldry · 14-04-2017 11:18am

A this rate 1hr will win on Sunday

Another wet one

Thats 7/9 wet Sundays for Sligo
1/9 wet Saturdays ....interesting

M.T. Cranium · 15-04-2017 3:34pm

Week two update ...

IMT once again averaged 9.0, this time it was 0.6 above normal, so the month to date is at 9.0 C.

PRC also very similar at 29%, Malin Head being the only station to reach normal, and that leaves the month at 32%.

SUN followed the trend of similar values at 70%, which makes it 71% for the month.

M.T. Cranium · 17-04-2017 9:55am

Bonus question results --

Only 3.1 hrs of sun at Malin Head for the highest amount. (3 pts to only Tae laidir)

Belmullet and Johnstown Castle had 2.5 hours each. (2 pts to about half the crew)

Next in line were Casement (1.9) and Dublin (1.5). (1 pt for a few more)

So those locations will earn 3, 2 and 1 point.

As to the other seven points available, these groups of forecasts will get the following scores:

waterways with low forecast of 4.0h, JPmarn (5.5), Dacogawa (5.8), Tae laidir (5.9) will score 7 (and 2 extra for Tae laidir, superbonus)

JXC BXC (6.0h), sunflower3 (6.5h), (NormaL at 6.9h), Kindred Spirit 7.0h and dasa29 also at 7.0h, will get 6.

MrSkinner (7.1h) and M.T. Cranium (7.5h) score 5.

Pauldry (7.8h), Rikand and mickger844posts (both 8.0h, also Con Sensus) are at 4.

Bsal (8.7h), John mac (8.9h) and 200motels (9.0h), share 3 points.

Then it's DOCARCH (9.2h), sdanseo (9.6h) and Rameire (9.8h) at 2 points.

Low scores for higher than 10h (1 pt) for sryanbruen, Water John and Joe Public.

Tae laidir · 17-04-2017 8:58pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Only 3.1 hrs of sun at Malin Head for the highest amount.

Interesting (to me anyway) Malin Head was also the wettest, almost twice as much as Knock in second.

M.T. Cranium · 22-04-2017 1:09pm

After three weeks ...

IMT now on 9.2, after a week that averaged 9.3 (0.4 above normal). This will probably fall to about 8.4 with the cold weather expected, before perhaps recovering slightly to finish near 8.5 C.

PRC continues very low, now only 30% of normal after the week finished at 28%. Although the rest of the month could be close to normal, that will still see an outcome around 50% of normal.

SUN is down to 64% as the week managed only 49% of normal. It would take an average of almost twice normal values from today to 30th to bring this back to 100% and the outlook is not that sunny, perhaps 110% which would boost the average to about 75% of normal at the end of the month.

No changes to max or min yet.

Water John · 22-04-2017 4:41pm

Yesterday must have been close to max value in places. Car was reading 19, which I accept isn't wholly accurate, near Macroom, Co. Cork.

John mac · 22-04-2017 8:34pm

Water John wrote: »

Yesterday must have been close to max value in places. Car was reading 19, which I accept isn't wholly accurate, near Macroom, Co. Cork.

my car got to 22 in macroom yesterday ..

and 20 in Killarney

Water John · 23-04-2017 12:05pm

mac, you must have been parked up.
Looks like we'll hit the lowest of the month next week.

pauldry · 23-04-2017 4:01pm

No yesterday only got 16c

Next week wont be as cold as previously thought.

8 to 11c and zero at night

Still cold but scotland only snow place

John mac · 23-04-2017 6:18pm

Water John wrote: »

mac, you must have been parked up.
Looks like we'll hit the lowest of the month next week.

yea it was ,:D:D
it was 17 when driving in Killarney though.

Joe Public · 25-04-2017 1:59pm

About -2 C in Casement this morning

Tae laidir · 26-04-2017 9:27am

Joe Public wrote: »

About -2 C in Casement this morning

-2.0 confirmed for Casement for yesterday.
Ogimet indicating Casement -2.3 last night.

Tae laidir · 27-04-2017 11:36am

New Min. Casement -2.2 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 28-04-2017 7:55am

I worked out that the IMT on the 26th was only 5.0 C, below normal even in the heart of winter. There seems little chance that the established max will be changed before end of the month. Update for week four will follow on Saturday and the monthly values should be all but nailed down by then too.

M.T. Cranium · 29-04-2017 9:09pm

There was a lot of missing data for 28th which meant that the fourth week updates need some estimated values ...

IMT is now around 8.7, the fourth week was rather cold at 7.0 to 7.5 C. This should finish around 8.7 now.

PRC continues very low at around 30% with this past week not much different from that overall average. However, a lot of rain is expected tonight and 30th, the month may finish closer to 50% but will still likely necessitate the always popular minimum progression (mercy rule) scoring.

SUN has improved to about 70% with a week in the 90 to 100 per cent range, and cloudy weather on 29th and 30th will keep this at least that low.

I guess we'll have the actual figures by the 3rd as Monday is a holiday.

April 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

Comments