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April 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value for April is 8.4 C. (max 25 points)

2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during April. (max 20 points)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

4. Predict the PRC in April (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) for April as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

6. For a BONUS question (10 points), we will utilize the fact that there are now ten regular reports of sunshine hours in the daily data. These come from six that we use in the contest (Belmullet, Cork, Valentia, Shannon, Dublin, Casement) as well as Malin Head, Knock, Gurteen and Johnstown Castle. So for Easter Sunday which is the 16th, predict the maximum amount of sunshine (for seven points) and which of these ten locations will either record it or share it (for three points, two available for second place and one for third in the sunshine sweepstakes). A superbonus of one point for anyone who can finish top three in both categories (must score max of three for location). Forecast should be in hours and tenths of hours (e.g., 4.2 hrs) and the maximum possible is about 13 in the south to 14 in the north.

Enter by the deadline of 0300h Saturday 1st of April, after which penalties run at 1 point every 3h or portion late to 1800h 2nd (at this point the penalty stands at 15 points) then 1 point per hour after that.

Good luck!

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sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 9.1 _ 21.0_ -1.0 _ 90_ 110_ 10 hours, Dublin Airport

Bsal

Bsal __________ 8.7 _ 20.3_ -0.8 _ 105_ 112_ 8.7 hours, Casement

Rikand

Rikand.... 9.0..... 22.5..... -1.0.... 90.... 120.... 8.0 Johnstown Castle

200motels

9.1 _ 22.2_ -1.0 _ 92_ 111_ 9 hours, Dublin Airport

JCX BXC

JXC BXC______________8.4c__22.5c__-0.5c__115__89__6 Johnstown Castle

sdanseo

First time entry to this, I think. Sure why not!

sdanseo________8.9__21.4__-2.1__104__108__9.6, Johnstown Castle

M.T. Cranium

MTC _____ 9.4 __ 23.0 __ -1.8 __ 090 __ 115 ___ 7.5h Cork

pauldry

Pauldry _____ 9.0 __ 22.8 __ -1.1 __ 088 __ 111 ___ 7.8h Dublin

dasa29

Dasa29 _____ 9.0__ 20.0 __ -1.5 __ 100 __ 110 ___ 7h Valentia

John mac

john mac _____ 8.7 __ 22.0 __ -2.0 __ 110 __ 102 ___ 8.9h shannon

DOCARCH

DOCARCH __________ 8.8 _ 20.7_ -2.1 _ 94_ 112_ 9.2 hours, Johnstown Castle

sunflower3

Sunflower3 __________ 9.2 _ 21.7_ -1.3 _ 105_ 115_ 6.5 hours, Johnstown Castle

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit _____ 9.2 ___ 21.5 ___ -1.0° ___102 ___ 116 ___ 7.0. Johnstown Castle

Tae laidir

Tae laidir __________ 9.3 _ 19.5 _ -1.3 _ 88 _ 113 _ 5.9 hours, Costa Malin.

rameire

Rameire _____ 8.6 __ 21.0 __ -2.0 __ 103 __ 105 ___ 9.8h Valencia

mickger844posts

mickger844posts_________ 9.4 _ 20.6_ -1.0 _ 90_ 110_ 8 hours, Johnstown Castle

dacogawa

Dacogawa_________ 8.9 _ 23.8_ -1.1 _ 111_ 91_ 5.8hours, Valencia

Water John

First time entry

waterjohn 8.6 22.1 -2 95 105 10.1 Johnstown Castle

mrskinner

Skinner...........9.1........22.1.......-2.1........91........111...........7.1h..Cork

Joe Public

Joe Public _____ 9.9 __ 24.9 __ -1.9 __ 085 __ 120 ___ 10.2h Belmullet

Jpmarn

Jpmarn_____ 9.8__ 21.5 __ -1.5__ 085___120___ 5.5h Shannon
I am an April fool!

M.T. Cranium

Table of Forecasts for April 2017

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Max sun 16th

Joe Public ___ (-3) _______ 9.9 _ 24.9 _ -1.9 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 10.2h Belmullet
Jpmarn _____ (-5) _______ 9.8 _ 21.5 _ -1.5 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 5.5h Shannon
M.T. Cranium ___________ 9.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 7.5h Cork
mickger844posts_________ 9.4 _ 20.6 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas
Tae laidir ______________ 9.3 _ 19.5 _ -1.3 _ 088 _ 113 ____ 5.9h Malin
sunflower3 _____________ 9.2 _ 21.7 _ -1.3 _ 105 _ 115 ____ 6.5h Johns Cas
Kindred Spirit ___________ 9.2 _ 21.5 _ -1.0 _ 102 _ 116 ____ 7.0h Johns Cas
200motels ______________9.1 _ 22.2 _ -1.0 _ 092 _ 111 ____ 9.0h Dublin A
MrSkinner ______________ 9.1 _ 22.1 _ -2.1 _ 091 _ 111 ____ 7.1h Cork
sryanbruen _____________ 9.1 _ 21.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.0h Dublin A
Rikand _________________9.0 _ 22.5 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas

Con Sensus _____________ 9.0 _ 21.7 _ -1.3 _ 092 _ 111 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas

sdanseo ________________8.9 _ 21.4 _ -2.1 _ 104 _ 108 ____ 9.6h Johns Cas
Pauldry ________________ 9.0 _ 22.8 _ -1.1 _ 088 _ 111 ____ 7.8h Dublin A
Dasa29 ________________ 9.0 _ 20.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 7.0h Valentia
Dacogawa ______________ 8.9 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 111 _ 091 ____ 5.8h Valentia
DOCARCH ______________ 8.8 _ 20.7 _ -2.1 _ 094 _ 112 ____ 9.2h Johns Cas
John mac _______________8.7 _ 22.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 102 ____ 8.9h Shannon
Bsal ___________________8.7 _ 20.3 _ -0.8 _ 105 _ 112 ____ 8.7h Casement
waterjohn ______________ 8.6 _ 22.1 _ -2.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 10.1 Johns Cas
Rameire _______________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -2.0 _ 103 _ 105 ____ 9.8h Valentia
JXC BXC________________8.4 _ 22.5 _ -0.5 _ 115 _ 089 ____ 6.0h Johns Cas

NormaL ________________ 8.4 _ 21.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 6.9h (see note)
____________________________________________________________

First of all, welcome to Danseo and Water John, hope you enjoy the contest.

Con Sensus is currently 11th ranked (median) value of 21 forecasts. I can see two regulars not on board yet, so this could change.

For the normal value of maximum sunshine, I took the overall average of all stations (about 4.6 hours) and added 50% for random distribution. As to how NormaL might score for location, I will give them 3 points if it's Belmullet or Johnstown Castle, 2 if any station in Munster or Casement, and 1 elsewhere. For you, the points are determined by the three stations that finish 1-2-3 on the day.

The reputation of the sunny southeast has influenced the picks, I think. Johnstown Castle got 8 votes. Valentia and Dublin A had 3 votes, Cork and Shannon 2 each, Belmullet, Casement and Malin 1 apiece. There was no love for Gurteen or Knock.

In general, our crew looks for a warmer than average April with somewhat less rain and more sun than average. Nobody went below the 1981-2010 average of 8.4 C, one placed their bet on the tie.

Well, good luck to everyone.

pauldry

Has MT played an April Fool on us all. His forecast says 18c today but no more than 17c and the "heatwave" looks a bit dodgy too.

Still hes right 9999 times outta 10000.

Anyways -0.7c in Mullingar this morning

M.T. Cranium

Well the joke may be on me, but I just posted over on that "heat wave" thread about my thinking for next week, really hard for me to see how temps will be held down in all of Ireland under the sort of thickness values presented on the models, and I've suggested having a mini-contest regarding the highest temperature during the period Tuesday to Friday -- my punt being 20.

I will be really surprised if during those four days nobody breaks 18. However from the met E forecast I read most recently, I think the implication is a maximum lower than that, maybe 16 reading between the lines. But they may be talking exclusively about Tuesday-Wednesday. I can see some reason for caution too, the high has drifted into the Atlantic from Labrador so it will have a rather muted thermal profile, however, thickness parameters look borderline "heat wave" material and I tend to place more faith in thickness than 850 mb temps when the sun comes out. The April sun is strong enough to break down inversions fairly early in the day so morning frost won't linger past 0700h. I think it will turn into one of those glorious stretches of clear weather for the south at least with big temperature ranges and feeling very warm in places like inland west Munster possibly right out to the Atlantic coast with just weak sea breezes.

Could be wrong though, pauldry is way too generous with his accuracy rating there.

waterways

oh I forgot to take part, hope I will not get minus points for late late late entry
waterways __________ 8.8_ 22.0_ -1.5 _ 110_ 103_ 4 hours, Valentia

M.T. Cranium

Okay, I was looking at the penalty points and I made some kind of minor error there in saying that "at this point it is 15 points" after 39 hours 0300h 1st to 1800h on 2nd, that should say 13 points or else I was thinking the 3 hour intervals should run to end of 2nd when it would indeed be 15 (and not 19 as per the formula).

Either way you're looking at a deduction of 49 to 53 points. A small compensation would be that you might have better guidance for the bonus question as well as everything else and perhaps have a 10 point advantage that way.

There is also the 10 point minimum score rule to prevent any negative outcomes.

I will put you in at minus 50 and hope you score more than that, but obviously this will be one of your two dropped months, still might as well have a go, if you're 100% accurate with that forecast, I can't see too many people scoring much more than 50 off their numbers.

Will try to edit the table or repost as this will change Con Sensus slightly too.

M.T. Cranium

Updated table of forecasts for April 2017

No edit function available so here we go with an updated table.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Max sun 16th

Joe Public ___ (-3) _______ 9.9 _ 24.9 _ -1.9 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 10.2h Belmullet
Jpmarn _____ (-5) _______ 9.8 _ 21.5 _ -1.5 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 5.5h Shannon
M.T. Cranium ___________ 9.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 7.5h Cork
mickger844posts_________ 9.4 _ 20.6 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas
Tae laidir _______________9.3 _ 19.5 _ -1.3 _ 088 _ 113 ____ 5.9h Malin
sunflower3 _____________ 9.2 _ 21.7 _ -1.3 _ 105 _ 115 ____ 6.5h Johns Cas
Kindred Spirit ___________ 9.2 _ 21.5 _ -1.0 _ 102 _ 116 ____ 7.0h Johns Cas
200motels ______________9.1 _ 22.2 _ -1.0 _ 092 _ 111 ____ 9.0h Dublin A
MrSkinner ______________ 9.1 _ 22.1 _ -2.1 _ 091 _ 111 ____ 7.1h Cork
sryanbruen _____________ 9.1 _ 21.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.0h Dublin A
Rikand _________________9.0 _ 22.5 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas

Con Sensus _____________ 9.0 _ 21.6 _ -1.3 _ 093 _ 111 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas

Pauldry ________________ 9.0 _ 22.8 _ -1.1 _ 088 _ 111 ____ 7.8h Dublin A
Dasa29 ________________ 9.0 _ 20.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 7.0h Valentia
Dacogawa ______________ 8.9 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 111 _ 091 ____ 5.8h Valentia
sdanseo ________________8.9 _ 21.4 _ -2.1 _ 104 _ 108 ____ 9.6h Johns Cas
waterways ____ (-50) _____8.8 _ 22.0 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 103 ____ 4.0h Valentia
DOCARCH ______________ 8.8 _ 20.7 _ -2.1 _ 094 _ 112 ____ 9.2h Johns Cas
John mac _______________8.7 _ 22.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 102 ____ 8.9h Shannon
Bsal ___________________8.7 _ 20.3 _ -0.8 _ 105 _ 112 ____ 8.7h Casement
waterjohn ______________ 8.6 _ 22.1 _ -2.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 10.1 Johns Cas
Rameire _______________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -2.0 _ 103 _ 105 ____ 9.8h Valentia
JXC BXC________________8.4 _ 22.5 _ -0.5 _ 115 _ 089 ____ 6.0h Johns Cas

NormaL ________________ 8.4 _ 21.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 6.9h (see note)
____________________________________________________________

First of all, welcome to sdanseo and Water John, hope you enjoy the contest.
I have now included the (considerably) late entry from Waterways. See discussion above this post.

Con Sensus is adjusted to mean of 11th and 12th ranked (median) value of 22 forecasts.

For the normal value of maximum sunshine, I took the overall average of all stations (about 4.6 hours) and added 50% for random distribution. As to how NormaL might score for location, I will give them 3 points if it's Belmullet or Johnstown Castle, 2 if any station in Munster or Casement, and 1 elsewhere. For you, the points are determined by the three stations that finish 1-2-3 on the day.

The reputation of the sunny southeast has influenced the picks, I think. Johnstown Castle got 8 votes. Valentia now has 4 and Dublin A 3 votes, Cork and Shannon 2 each, Belmullet, Casement and Malin 1 apiece. There was no love for Gurteen or Knock.

In general, our crew looks for a warmer than average April with somewhat less rain and more sun than average. Nobody went below the 1981-2010 average of 8.4 C, one placed their bet on the tie.

Well, good luck to everyone.

waterways

Sorry for causing trouble and work.

That was not my intention. I had no time to have a look at models so even the bonus question is just a guess.

M.T. Cranium

No worries, the amount of work was perhaps five minutes. I am pretty fast at editing tables now after ten years of contest organizing.

I am really sorry about the huge time penalty but you know how it is, rules are rules and if I bend them for one, then I might as well not have any.

It's best ten of twelve anyway so it won't be a fatal blow by any means.

M.T. Cranium

After one week ...

IMT at 9.0, which runs 1.0 above the average for the period.

PRC at 34% of normal, only Valentia came anywhere close to a normal amount.

SUN only 72% of normal, not bad considering 5th and 6th were almost totally overcast.

Min and max probably set on 8th, will be updating those tomorrow.