Arlene Foster and the RHI scandal

A Little Pony · 08-03-2017 12:10AM

listermint wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

So what is it then? Its misinformation at best to anyone looking in. Unionism is not a fringe view in Northern Ireland. Its the most widely held view regarding the constitutional question on the state.

It's not but continue on.

Why? Because you haven't asked the people .

But I'm sure you know everyone on the island as you've asserted . Many many people so many people.

Call a border poll then. But as see from nearly every poll conducted on it it remains majority Union support. But I have no issue with a border poll.

listermint · 08-03-2017 12:17AM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Call a border poll then. But as see from nearly every poll conducted on it it remains majority Union support. But I have no issue with a border poll.

Neither do i.

Get it going but that's for another thread. So not for here.

FrancieBrady · 08-03-2017 12:25AM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Call a border poll then. But as see from nearly every poll conducted on it it remains majority Union support. But I have no issue with a border poll.

Will that be fought by unionism on a sectarian 'Nationalists against Protestant' basis?

Jamiekelly · 08-03-2017 06:19AM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Im 27. I can't change my views on the Union. It is just part of me.

Doesn't seem to be the part that does the thinking.

johnnyskeleton · 08-03-2017 09:45AM

A Little Pony wrote: »

The majority support the Union. So it isn't some fringe view at all. Please don't try and spread fake news.

Mod Note:

If you disagree with another poster such that you view their comment as "fake news", please demonstrate why they are incorrect. It is not sufficient to simply label someone else's view as "fake news" in a glib manner.

FrancieBrady · 08-03-2017 09:55AM

It is a pretty momentous change in the order of things. And one of those incremental changes that cannot be reversed.
Will unionism forgive Arlene and stop the men in grey suits? That too will be significant.

It is not so many years since the DUP was asserting that it would never go into power with Sinn Féin/IRA. But even before the votes were counted last Friday, Arlene was calling for a return to civility and for her party and Sinn Féin to re-establish the institutions.

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/denis-bradley-arlene-foster-s-sneer-is-what-did-the-damage-1.3001190

blanch152 · 08-03-2017 11:27AM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Call a border poll then. But as see from nearly every poll conducted on it it remains majority Union support. But I have no issue with a border poll.

http://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2015/1104/739633-prime-time-cross-border-poll-test-page/

This is the most comprehensive poll in recent years, albeit it took place before Brexit.

Only 13% in Northern Ireland favoured a United Ireland in the short/medium term. While this will have increased following Brexit, it is clear that not even all SF supporters favour a united Ireland. The 24% that favour Direct Rule can be taken as supporting the Union. However, what isn't known is what proportion of those who favour devolution, favour Northern Irish independence rather than the Union.

From a Southern perspective, the most interesting conclusion was that support for a united Ireland was low in the short/medium term - 36%, and even though there was 66% support for it in one's lifetime, this dropped dramatically to 31% if it meant more tax (much closer to the short-term view).

Later this spring (May) might be a good time for a similar in-depth survey to see have attitudes changed since Brexit.

RicePat · 08-03-2017 11:29AM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Maybe you have been living in a bubble but go read the history of Ulster. That is what this place is like, it is about the land, territory, progressiveness vs Conservationism. A progressive liberal way of life vs a rural traditional way of life, Republican vs Unionist, Protestant vs Catholic. And I say all that with Catholic family members.

And I make no apologies as an Ulster conservative over which side I am. I love the Union, I can make no apology for that either. It is in my interests to defend it and cherish it until the day I die.

Did i mention I have black friends?? :rolleyes:

"The place" is not like that, a place is just a place. People are like that, people like you. Thankfully that tide is turning and people, slowly but surely, are beginning to vote based on policy and politics not tribalism.

This election had nothing to do with the union. A landslide victory either way would not have changed the constitutional position one jot.

Your cherished conservatives were running and across all 18 constituencies amassed a grand total of 2399 votes, an average of about 130 per constituency

RicePat · 08-03-2017 11:30AM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Im 27. I can't change my views on the Union. It is just part of me.

Well isnt that beyond depressing. Never mind logic or reason or circumstance or context or debate or discussion or an open mind or concern for what's best for the country; just head in the sand, beat the drum, no surrender.

RicePat · 08-03-2017 11:32AM

A Little Pony wrote: »

So what is it then? Its misinformation at best to anyone looking in. Unionism is not a fringe view in Northern Ireland. Its the most widely held view regarding the constitutional question on the state.

You have zero basis for saying that. The only legitimate constitutional poll ever held here was for Brexit and it was rejected.

RicePat · 08-03-2017 11:36AM

blanch152 wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2015/1104/739633-prime-time-cross-border-poll-test-page/

This is the most comprehensive poll in recent years, albeit it took place before Brexit.

Only 13% in Northern Ireland favoured a United Ireland in the short/medium term. While this will have increased following Brexit, it is clear that not even all SF supporters favour a united Ireland. The 24% that favour Direct Rule can be taken as supporting the Union. However, what isn't known is what proportion of those who favour devolution, favour Northern Irish independence rather than the Union.

From a Southern perspective, the most interesting conclusion was that support for a united Ireland was low in the short/medium term - 36%, and even though there was 66% support for it in one's lifetime, this dropped dramatically to 31% if it meant more tax (much closer to the short-term view).

Later this spring (May) might be a good time for a similar in-depth survey to see have attitudes changed since Brexit.

Pre-brexit, daft questions, tiny sample audience, no debate; utterly meaningless.

blanch152 · 08-03-2017 12:44PM

RicePat wrote: »

Pre-brexit,

Clearly acknowledged in my post as a caveat.

RicePat wrote: »

daft questions,

Do you want a United Ireland if it means increased taxes is a daft question to who?

Splitting lifetime from short/medium-term is a daft question?

Please explain with some substance.

RicePat wrote: »

tiny sample audience,

Poll conducted by reputable polling company Behaviour and Attitudes with standard sample sizes. Are you suggesting that their opinion polls which have SF on 19% are inaccurate?

RicePat wrote: »

no debate;

It's an opinion poll, not a debate.

RicePat wrote: »

utterly meaningless.

Facetious comment

FrancieBrady · 08-03-2017 12:48PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Clearly acknowledged in my post as a caveat.

Do you want a United Ireland if it means increased taxes is a daft question to who?

Splitting lifetime from short/medium-term is a daft question?

Please explain with some substance.

Poll conducted by reputable polling company Behaviour and Attitudes with standard sample sizes. Are you suggesting that their opinion polls which have SF on 19% are inaccurate?

It's an opinion poll, not a debate.

Facetious comment

You cannot gauge opinion properly when you haven't had a proper debate.
The polls that will count for anything will be those conducted after a proper debate of proposals.

Jayop · 08-03-2017 12:48PM

Rte in loaded questions creating a bias shocker.

RicePat · 08-03-2017 01:24PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Clearly acknowledged in my post as a caveat.

And then breezed over as if it didnt change the very fundamentals of the question at hand

Do you want a United Ireland if it means increased taxes is a daft question to who?

Splitting lifetime from short/medium-term is a daft question?

Please explain with some substance.

The questions were daft for numerous reasons. The main point is, as I alluded to in the following point, that they were asked with no debate or context. Scotland spent a year and a half debating what independence actually meant and that exchange of ideas and knowledge say support swing from the mid/low 20s to 45% These questions were asked dry, without even an allusion as to what is meant by a united Ireland. A 32 county free state? A new socialist republic? A federal Ireland with links to Britain. Nothing. Each person was answering based on what their idea of it was, each person was effectively answering a different question.

The tax thing is a perfect example of idiocy dressed up as intelligence. Setting aside the fact that the most recent major study on reunification showed that the country stood to benefit financially from it, what does this question even mean? Before you even get an answer you've already made an assumption that it means higher taxes. But higher taxes for what? better services? An all Ireland Universal healthcare system? What sort of taxes? Income based or some sort of new unity tax?

They asked 1000 strangers these huge, broad questions with no background information and then presented the findings as if they were some sort of representative result when what they were was a false endorsement of the angle the programme was trying to push. Not even subtly, for anyone with two brain cells to rub together it was very transparent.

Poll conducted by reputable polling company Behaviour and Attitudes with standard sample sizes. Are you suggesting that their opinion polls which have SF on 19% are inaccurate?

Yes, I am. Polls had the DUP winning far more votes and seats than Sinn Féin, polls had Brexit being reject, Trump losing and scottish independence winning. Polls are bull****! Especially polls with weighted questions, doubly especially polls with weighted questions with no explanation or context and triply especially polls with weighted questions with no explanation or context taken before an event that fundamentally changed the question itself.

It's an opinion poll, not a debate.

As i explained, it was more to do with the context of the questions. There was, however, plenty of debate on the show and all of it equally weighted. Anyone of a pro-reunification persuasion who was in any way articulate was quickly cut off and the interviews with Nolan, well, they were just typical of interviews with Nolan, who is awful, just awful, just the absolute worst.

Facetious comment

I dont think you know what facetious means

A Little Pony · 08-03-2017 02:17PM

RicePat wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

So what is it then? Its misinformation at best to anyone looking in. Unionism is not a fringe view in Northern Ireland. Its the most widely held view regarding the constitutional question on the state.

You have zero basis for saying that. The only legitimate constitutional poll ever held here was for Brexit and it was rejected.

One was held in the 70s and you lost. And Brexit won, a referendum based on a UK wide vote. That is just the facts.

blanch152 wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Call a border poll then. But as see from nearly every poll conducted on it it remains majority Union support. But I have no issue with a border poll.

http://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2015/1104/739633-prime-time-cross-border-poll-test-page/

This is the most comprehensive poll in recent years, albeit it took place before Brexit.

Only 13% in Northern Ireland favoured a United Ireland in the short/medium term. While this will have increased following Brexit, it is clear that not even all SF supporters favour a united Ireland. The 24% that favour Direct Rule can be taken as supporting the Union. However, what isn't known is what proportion of those who favour devolution, favour Northern Irish independence rather than the Union.

From a Southern perspective, the most interesting conclusion was that support for a united Ireland was low in the short/medium term - 36%, and even though there was 66% support for it in one's lifetime, this dropped dramatically to 31% if it meant more tax (much closer to the short-term view).

Later this spring (May) might be a good time for a similar in-depth survey to see have attitudes changed since Brexit.

I don't think it is any ambition for an indepdent Northern Ireland for multiple reasons. One being that it simply would not work economically. We would be absolutely ruined and could not afford to do that. But also I think people are happy to generally to live in Northern Ireland and it is a distinct place from the ROI, even if you are Nationalist, you can't deny that it is just different.

Many Unionists would call themselves Northern Irish with no shame and neither should they. Its the name of the state.

A Little Pony · 08-03-2017 02:19PM

One was held in the 70s and you lost. And Brexit won, a referendum based on a UK wide vote. That is just the facts.

I don't think it is any ambition for an independent Northern Ireland for multiple reasons. One being that it simply would not work economically. We would be absolutely ruined and could not afford to do that. But also I think people are happy to generally to live in Northern Ireland and it is a distinct place from the ROI, even if you are Nationalist, you can't deny that it is just different.

Many Unionists would call themselves Northern Irish with no shame and neither should they. Its the name of the state.

A Little Pony · 08-03-2017 02:20PM

RicePat wrote: »

blanch152 wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2015/1104/739633-prime-time-cross-border-poll-test-page/

This is the most comprehensive poll in recent years, albeit it took place before Brexit.

Only 13% in Northern Ireland favoured a United Ireland in the short/medium term. While this will have increased following Brexit, it is clear that not even all SF supporters favour a united Ireland. The 24% that favour Direct Rule can be taken as supporting the Union. However, what isn't known is what proportion of those who favour devolution, favour Northern Irish independence rather than the Union.

From a Southern perspective, the most interesting conclusion was that support for a united Ireland was low in the short/medium term - 36%, and even though there was 66% support for it in one's lifetime, this dropped dramatically to 31% if it meant more tax (much closer to the short-term view).

Later this spring (May) might be a good time for a similar in-depth survey to see have attitudes changed since Brexit.

Pre-brexit, daft questions, tiny sample audience, no debate; utterly meaningless.

It wouldn't change that much post Brexit. Any polls released on this since Brexit?

givyjoe · 08-03-2017 02:22PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Nationalists should enjoy the little victory over Protestants right now but it won't last. The amount of people I have spoken to who didn't vote saying to me they will vote next time is incredible.

I can only assume you have spoken to thousands of people.. or at least 1000 for this point to have any weight.. ?

Consonata · 08-03-2017 02:25PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

One was held in the 70s and you lost. And Brexit won, a referendum based on a UK wide vote. That is just the facts.

Northern Ireland border poll 1973

On 23 January 1973, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) called on its members[ B]"to ignore completely the referendum and reject this extremely irresponsible decision by the British Government"[/B]. Gerry Fitt, leader of the SDLP, said he had organised a boycott to stop an escalation in violence.[2]

Anybody who has done any Irish history, knows that this poll was unrepresentative. To even use it as an example is lunacy.

A Little Pony wrote: »

I don't think it is any ambition for an independent Northern Ireland for multiple reasons. One being that it simply would not work economically. We would be absolutely ruined and could not afford to do that. But also I think people are happy to generally to live in Northern Ireland and it is a distinct place from the ROI, even if you are Nationalist, you can't deny that it is just different.

I don't think we ever said it was distinct, I doubt a unification would stop you from being "distinct" as you more likely than not have the use of Stormont

A Little Pony wrote: »

Many Unionists would call themselves Northern Irish with no shame and neither should they. Its the name of the state.

I really don't see how this is relevant to the conversation.

A Little Pony · 08-03-2017 03:07PM

Consonata wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

One was held in the 70s and you lost. And Brexit won, a referendum based on a UK wide vote. That is just the facts.

Northern Ireland border poll 1973

On 23 January 1973, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) called on its members[ B]"to ignore completely the referendum and reject this extremely irresponsible decision by the British Government"[/B]. Gerry Fitt, leader of the SDLP, said he had organised a boycott to stop an escalation in violence.[2]

Anybody who has done any Irish history, knows that this poll was unrepresentative. To even use it as an example is lunacy.

A Little Pony wrote: »

I don't think it is any ambition for an independent Northern Ireland for multiple reasons. One being that it simply would not work economically. We would be absolutely ruined and could not afford to do that. But also I think people are happy to generally to live in Northern Ireland and it is a distinct place from the ROI, even if you are Nationalist, you can't deny that it is just different.

I don't think we ever said it was distinct, I doubt a unification would stop you from being "distinct" as you more likely than not have the use of Stormont

A Little Pony wrote: »

Many Unionists would call themselves Northern Irish with no shame and neither should they. Its the name of the state.

I really don't see how this is relevant to the conversation.

People on here have said Stormont wouldn't be used. Economically the ROI could not afford the burden on the backs of the Irish people, never mind the other social issues.

RicePat · 08-03-2017 03:14PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

People on here have said Stormont wouldn't be used. Economically the ROI could not afford the burden on the backs of the Irish people, never mind the other social issues.

Oh well if people on here said it then that must be the official position.

It has already been pointed out numerous times that the only reliable independent studies ever carried out on reunification all concluded it would benefit the country economically. Even setting aside the transparent attempts to dismiss these reports, they, at the very least, nullify the automatic assumption that it would cost the country money.

What other social issues. This is pretty important, I'd like to mind them, regardless of your desire to ignore them

blanch152 · 08-03-2017 03:31PM

RicePat wrote: »

Oh well if people on here said it then that must be the official position.

It has already been pointed out numerous times that the only reliable independent studies ever carried out on reunification all concluded it would benefit the country economically. Even setting aside the transparent attempts to dismiss these reports, they, at the very least, nullify the automatic assumption that it would cost the country money.

What other social issues. This is pretty important, I'd like to mind them, regardless of your desire to ignore them

Except as pointed out, they were neither reliable nor independent.

blanch152 · 08-03-2017 03:34PM

RicePat wrote: »

And then breezed over as if it didnt change the very fundamentals of the question at hand

On the one hand, we have the opinion poll carried out by a reputable polling company that showed support for a united Ireland in the short-term at a historic high of 13%.

On the other hand, we have internet posters on here claiming that Brexit and the recent election mean a united Ireland could be happening within the next decade.

As significant as Brexit is, it won't have that kind of effect. If it is to change opinion that seismically in even a small part of the UK such as Northern Ireland, then it is more likely that there will be a public push for a referendum on the terms of Brexit which may see the UK stay in.

RicePat · 08-03-2017 03:35PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Except as pointed out, they were neither reliable nor independent.

It was not pointed out, an allegation was made about one group that commissioned one study and the allegation was that this group had committed the heinous crime of being, as described in your own link, "a nonprofit social welfare organization that promotes social welfare and conflict resolution through education."

Beyond this absolutely nothing was offered to question the people who actually carried out the study or the results of the study itself.

RicePat · 08-03-2017 03:38PM

blanch152 wrote: »

On the one hand, we have the opinion poll carried out by a reputable polling company that showed support for a united Ireland in the short-term at a historic high of 13%.

On the other hand, we have internet posters on here claiming that Brexit and the recent election mean a united Ireland could be happening within the next decade.

As significant as Brexit is, it won't have that kind of effect. If it is to change opinion that seismically in even a small part of the UK such as Northern Ireland, then it is more likely that there will be a public push for a referendum on the terms of Brexit which may see the UK stay in.

I dont know who you are trying to convince here; others or yourself. You discredit all your future arguments when you try to defend the point that a half arse, weighted, pre-brexit poll from two years ago has more significance than the results of an actual referendum

A Little Pony · 08-03-2017 03:51PM

Some pals of Gerry Adams is NOT independent, that is just ridiculous.

RicePat · 08-03-2017 03:59PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Some pals of Gerry Adams is NOT independent, that is just ridiculous.

No, that statement is ridiculous. Present your evidence that the

Knights of the Red Branch (San Francisco Bay area–based nonprofit social welfare organization that promotes social welfare and conflict resolution through education)

Dr. Kurt Hubner (professor at the Political Science Department of University of British Columbia and holder of the Jean Monnet Chair for European Integration and Global Political Economy, specialising in European integration in the context of the global political economy)

and Dr. Renger Van Nieuwkoop (Lecturer and researcher at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, Director and Founder Modelworks, Thun, specialising in advanced applied computational equilibrium)

are "pals of Gerry Adams"

blanch152 · 08-03-2017 04:35PM

RicePat wrote: »

No, that statement is ridiculous. Present your evidence that the

Knights of the Red Branch (San Francisco Bay area–based nonprofit social welfare organization that promotes social welfare and conflict resolution through education)

Dr. Kurt Hubner (professor at the Political Science Department of University of British Columbia and holder of the Jean Monnet Chair for European Integration and Global Political Economy, specialising in European integration in the context of the global political economy)

and Dr. Renger Van Nieuwkoop (Lecturer and researcher at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, Director and Founder Modelworks, Thun, specialising in advanced applied computational equilibrium)

are "pals of Gerry Adams"

A little google search just for you. The Knights count Sean Crowe and Des Mackin among their friends.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2015/11/21/when-is-an-independent-study-on-irish-unification-not-independent/

This hilarious economic analysis of the report - it only works if you impose Tory Austerity - is good too.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2016/03/26/the-reports-canadian-authors-made-their-numbers-add-up-by-using-a-tory-island-model-of-small-government-low-taxes-free-markets-and-no-debt/

A Little Pony · 08-03-2017 04:43PM

blanch152 wrote: »

RicePat wrote: »

No, that statement is ridiculous. Present your evidence that the

Knights of the Red Branch (San Francisco Bay area–based nonprofit social welfare organization that promotes social welfare and conflict resolution through education)

Dr. Kurt Hubner (professor at the Political Science Department of University of British Columbia and holder of the Jean Monnet Chair for European Integration and Global Political Economy, specialising in European integration in the context of the global political economy)

and Dr. Renger Van Nieuwkoop (Lecturer and researcher at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, Director and Founder Modelworks, Thun, specialising in advanced applied computational equilibrium)

are "pals of Gerry Adams"

A little google search just for you. The Knights count Sean Crowe and Des Mackin among their friends.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2015/11/21/when-is-an-independent-study-on-irish-unification-not-independent/

This hilarious economic analysis of the report - it only works if you impose Tory Austerity - is good too.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2016/03/26/the-reports-canadian-authors-made-their-numbers-add-up-by-using-a-tory-island-model-of-small-government-low-taxes-free-markets-and-no-debt/

Yeah, I mean debunking that garbage is like shooting fish in a barrel. Felt sorry for that poster.

Anyway, no closer to a deal at Stormont. Going to Direct rule. Election was kind of irrelevant.

Arlene Foster and the RHI scandal

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