Arlene Foster and the RHI scandal

FrancieBrady · 06-03-2017 01:32PM

Anita Blow wrote: »

Are you sure about that? The next election will be in a post-brexit NI. While none of us know how that will eventually turn out, it's likely that NI specifically will not fare well from brexit. The DUP will not be able to argue their way out of that one should the economy turn sour, considering it's themselves which pushed for Brexit knowing the damage it would do to their people.

A period of direct rule would be a further blow to unionism. The Conservatives will no doubt push through cuts to NI's budget in the coming years, and the likes of SF can use this as a bat to beat unionism with.

Newton Emerson makes that point in an article in today's Irish Times.
SF playing a long game here and some would say it is running rings around the DUP's inability to change.

Interesting times.

blanch152 · 06-03-2017 01:43PM

Anita Blow wrote: »

Are you sure about that? The next election will be in a post-brexit NI. While none of us know how that will eventually turn out, it's likely that NI specifically will not fare well from brexit. The DUP will not be able to argue their way out of that one should the economy turn sour, considering it's themselves which pushed for Brexit knowing the damage it would do to their people.

A period of direct rule would be a further blow to unionism. The Conservatives will no doubt push through cuts to NI's budget in the coming years, and the likes of SF can use this as a bat to beat unionism with.

If Brexit is going to be that bad, then the South is going to suffer badly too, and won't be interested in adding another millstone to the economy.

RicePat · 06-03-2017 02:40PM

blanch152 wrote: »

If Brexit is going to be that bad, then the South is going to suffer badly too, and won't be interested in adding another millstone to the economy.

Good job it wont be then. Numerous studies have shown reunification would benefit the economy of the entire island.

Consonata · 06-03-2017 02:59PM

blanch152 wrote: »

If Brexit is going to be that bad, then the South is going to suffer badly too, and won't be interested in adding another millstone to the economy.

Not if there is a United Ireland

Frankly though, if a UI were to come to pass, not only would it beneficial for the economy's on both sides of the border, but we would likely see a good chunk of EU support as a result to smooth out the change with investment into our economy and our infrastructure.

This all coming along with the news that Enda Kenny might be taking over from Tusk as President of the European Council. Who knew a Free Stater might help bring a United Ireland :pac:

FrancieBrady · 06-03-2017 03:11PM

The Irish government is clearly making it's case too.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/enda-kenny-calls-for-brexit-deal-to-include-united-ireland-provision-1.2986650

There is no doubt about a border poll if the UK pull the trigger on Art 50.

With possibly a year of Brexit effects to help make up minds.

FrancieBrady · 06-03-2017 03:36PM

I'd imagine a 'third' are prepared to say they want her gone. I would imagine it is more in reality.
Has to be the most spectacular election failure in Unionism ever.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/arlene-foster-faces-revolt-as-third-of-dup-mlas-want-her-to-step-aside-and-save-institutions-35504549.html

blanch152 · 06-03-2017 04:14PM

RicePat wrote: »

Good job it wont be then. Numerous studies have shown reunification would benefit the economy of the entire island.

Very interesting that the word "independent" was missing between "numerous" and "studies".

Secondly, I prefer to use the term "unification" rather than "reunification" as the island has only ever been united under British rule.

Finally, taking on the basket-case economy of Northern Ireland in a post-Brexit situation where the UK could no longer subsidise it would break the economy of the South. The austerity post-2008 would be a cakewalk in comparison.

FrancieBrady · 06-03-2017 04:25PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Very interesting that the word "independent" was missing between "numerous" and "studies".

Secondly, I prefer to use the term "unification" rather than "reunification" as the island has only ever been united under British rule.

Finally, taking on the basket-case economy of Northern Ireland in a post-Brexit situation where the UK could no longer subsidise it would break the economy of the South. The austerity post-2008 would be a cakewalk in comparison.

The last part is just as much an assumption as any other projection.
The reality is, nobody knows what the cost would be until it is properly assessed with all factors known.

Consonata · 06-03-2017 04:28PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Very interesting that the word "independent" was missing between "numerous" and "studies".

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unification-of-ireland-could-bring-in-36-5bn-in-eight-years-1.2435505

Political and economic unification of Ireland could potentially deliver a €35.6 billion boost in GDP for the island in the first eight years, according to a US study of reunification by two prominent academics.

The economic research, launched in New York, suggests economic unification could possibly deliver a more sizeable boost in economic output and incomes in the North, with a predicted 4-7.5 per cent long-term improvement in GDP.

The study, which involved a number of researchers led by Dr Kurt Hübner, director of the Institute for European Studies at the University of British Columbia, also highlighted that the Republic would see a more modest boost of between 0.7 to 1.2 per cent in GDP per capita.

hmmm.....

RicePat · 06-03-2017 04:45PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Very interesting that the word "independent" was missing between "numerous" and "studies".

Secondly, I prefer to use the term "unification" rather than "reunification" as the island has only ever been united under British rule.

Finally, taking on the basket-case economy of Northern Ireland in a post-Brexit situation where the UK could no longer subsidise it would break the economy of the South. The austerity post-2008 would be a cakewalk in comparison.

Fine. INDEPENDENT studies. At least two I can think of, and a pretty interesting book on the topic written by a former Labour special advisor to the north ( https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/a-united-ireland ) , all say youre wrong.

The main reason the north is a basket case is because of partition, a situation that would be remedied with reunification. This is marked out clearly in both INDEPENDENT studies.

Have a gander yourself

http://politicaleconomy.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/MB-unity.pdf The Economic Case for Irish Unity by Michael Burke ( Economic consultant and former senior international economist at Citibank in London) presented to the European parliament in December.

http://prcg.com/modeling-irish-unification/report.pdf Modelling Irish Unification (lack of "re" in the title should please you) by Dr. Kurt Hubner (professor at the Political Science Department of University of
British Columbia and holder of the Jean Monnet Chair for European Integration and Global Political Economy, specialising in European integration in the context of the global political economy) and his research team, modelling system devised by Dr. Renger Van Nieuwkoop (Lecturer and researcher at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, Director and Founder Modelworks, Thun, specialising in advanced applied computational equilibrium
modeling.)

Just in case you were worried about their independence

A Little Pony · 06-03-2017 05:08PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Anita Blow wrote: »

Are you sure about that? The next election will be in a post-brexit NI. While none of us know how that will eventually turn out, it's likely that NI specifically will not fare well from brexit. The DUP will not be able to argue their way out of that one should the economy turn sour, considering it's themselves which pushed for Brexit knowing the damage it would do to their people.

A period of direct rule would be a further blow to unionism. The Conservatives will no doubt push through cuts to NI's budget in the coming years, and the likes of SF can use this as a bat to beat unionism with.

If Brexit is going to be that bad, then the South is going to suffer badly too, and won't be interested in adding another millstone to the economy.

The Southern establishment don't want anything to do with the two states merging.

RicePat · 06-03-2017 05:30PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

The Southern establishment don't want anything to do with the two states merging.

Course not, they have cosy power pendulum to protect but the fact is they signed up to it in the GFA and as a poll becomes an ever increasing likelihood in the north they will simply have to deal with the issue and begin making plans.

Jayop · 06-03-2017 05:31PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

The Southern establishment don't want anything to do with the two states merging.

FG might not. FF would though.

FrancieBrady · 06-03-2017 05:46PM

If FG or FF for that matter can be seen as the leaders on this or even co-leaders, they will go for it bald headed, make no mistake.

I always fancied a FF-SF coalition to be the one actually.

Jayop · 06-03-2017 05:56PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If FG or FF for that matter can be seen as the leaders on this or even co-leaders, they will go for it bald headed, make no mistake.

I always fancied a FF-SF coalition to be the one actually.

It's certainly the strongest possibility. I can see SF make more ground up at the next election in the south if that happens and FF are the biggest party then you really could see that coalition happening.

Consonata · 06-03-2017 06:47PM

Jayop wrote: »

It's certainly the strongest possibility. I can see SF make more ground up at the next election in the south if that happens and FF are the biggest party then you really could see that coalition happening.

If the SF result in the north has any sway in the south, a FF/SF coalition seems unavoidable.

Jayop · 06-03-2017 06:53PM

Consonata wrote: »

If the SF result in the north has any sway in the south, a FF/SF coalition seems unavoidable.

All depends on how bullish the parties are prior to an election. I think this current arrangement is a disaster but should the media force Martin's hand into saying if he will or will not go into coalition with SF post election it could cause problems.

Havockk · 06-03-2017 07:04PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Unionism wasn't prepared for this election. We will be better prepared for the next one. But in truth we can all talk about POC and the executive and so on but it isn't going to get off the ground anyway in my opinion. Unless Sinn Fein was just lying to Nationalists about Arlene Foster being a red line for entering into the executive.

A period of direct rule is coming and the Assembly won't be up and running again for years. So in reality all we elected was the Tories ruling the place which for a conservative like me is fine but to others they won't like it.

Ironically enough, Foster actually does pose a problem for SF now. That problem being that I would imagine that currently no one in SF actually want her to step down or resign as it would be much more beneficial for them to have an inept leader at the helm of the DUP.

Jayop · 06-03-2017 07:16PM

Havockk wrote: »

Ironically enough, Foster actually does pose a problem for SF now. That problem being that I would imagine that currently no one in SF actually want her to step down or resign as it would be much more beneficial for them to have an inept leader at the helm of the DUP.

I dunno. They've backed themselves into a bit of a corner on it. While the end goal could be benefited by direct rule, it's a huge gamble as if people blame them for it and it causes massive austerity then they could be punished.

FrancieBrady · 06-03-2017 07:59PM

Jayop wrote: »

I dunno. They've backed themselves into a bit of a corner on it. While the end goal could be benefited by direct rule, it's a huge gamble as if people blame them for it and it causes massive austerity then they could be punished.

The DUP's attempt to blame SF for collapsing the executive didn't go too well.

The fact is Arlene through a succession of events revealed her spots from the get go. Nobody seems able to work with her. She hasnt made any attempt to deal with her past and fell back on sectarian bitter rethoric too often. That might appeal to a certain kind of unionist but nobody else is gonna listen to that. And the DUP don't seem to have much alternative in leadership material in fairness. Paisley jun is just getting his own back on them by criticising.

blanch152 · 06-03-2017 08:22PM

Jayop wrote: »

It's certainly the strongest possibility. I can see SF make more ground up at the next election in the south if that happens and FF are the biggest party then you really could see that coalition happening.

It is the most likely outcome at the moment.

If FG lose even one seat in the election, the new leader can say to all the others that they have lost in two successive elections and it is time for others to step up.

A Little Pony · 06-03-2017 08:44PM

It doesn't happen for Sinn Fein in Southern elections. They never get close to government. Proper government, not some bitch ass attempt to seem relevant.

FrancieBrady · 06-03-2017 08:55PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

It doesn't happen for Sinn Fein in Southern elections. They never get close to government. Proper government, not some bitch ass attempt to seem relevant.

That really is classic head in the sand stuff. If unionism in general adopts that delusion and ignores the upward trajectory in both jurisdictions then it is doomed.

When the chips were down we saw who's vote came out. That IMO will happen again around the votes for unification.

Jayop · 06-03-2017 09:10PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

It doesn't happen for Sinn Fein in Southern elections. They never get close to government. Proper government, not some bitch ass attempt to seem relevant.

lol, aye ok.

2016
23/158 seats 14.56%

2011
14/166 seats 8.43%

2007
4/166 seats 2.41%

2002
5/166 seats 3.01%

1997
1/166 seats = 0.60%

See that percentage increase. The same thing was happening in the north and you blindly said that it would never translate to them getting close to a majority. We'll guess what, that day has come in NI where the nationalists have a majority and by the looks of the election results in the South, it's only so long before FFG will be unable to avoid going into power with them too.

SF are now polling at around 23% and that number fits in nicely with the numbers above and the steady increase.

/ <that's a line graph showing you what I mean.

Tiocfaidh ár lá

Irishweather · 07-03-2017 09:40AM

Nationalists don't have a majority at 44%.

Irishweather · 07-03-2017 09:42AM

Anita Blow wrote: »

Are you sure about that? The next election will be in a post-brexit NI. While none of us know how that will eventually turn out, it's likely that NI specifically will not fare well from brexit. The DUP will not be able to argue their way out of that one should the economy turn sour, considering it's themselves which pushed for Brexit knowing the damage it would do to their people.

A period of direct rule would be a further blow to unionism. The Conservatives will no doubt push through cuts to NI's budget in the coming years, and the likes of SF can use this as a bat to beat unionism with.

The poorer Republic of Ireland can offer nothing that would be superior to the economic benefit that comes out of being an integral part of the United Kingdom.

Irishweather · 07-03-2017 09:43AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Newton Emerson makes that point in an article in today's Irish Times.
SF playing a long game here and some would say it is running rings around the DUP's inability to change.

Interesting times.

Might not get what you want though.

FrancieBrady · 07-03-2017 09:52AM

Irishweather wrote: »

Might not get what you want though.

Could you elaborate?
I'm not sure if a series of one liners constitutes discussion.

Jayop · 07-03-2017 10:03AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Could you elaborate?
I'm not sure if a series of one liners constitutes discussion.

I was going to reply to the first one when I seen the next few I knew it was just another Pony poster with absolutely no substance beyond rubbish posts like those few.

L1011 · 07-03-2017 10:06AM

Irishweather wrote: »

The poorer Republic of Ireland can offer nothing that would be superior to the economic benefit that comes out of being an integral part of the United Kingdom.

The "integral"ness of NIs status in the UK is extremely doubtful - and further hampered by them electing parties who never enter government even if they turn up at all.

As goes being a member of an isolationist UK with a likely single party government for some time to come vs being in the EU via any means - I think I know which one is more likely to be viable. No interest in funding it, though.

Arlene Foster and the RHI scandal

Comments