Anita Blow wrote: » Are you sure about that? The next election will be in a post-brexit NI. While none of us know how that will eventually turn out, it's likely that NI specifically will not fare well from brexit. The DUP will not be able to argue their way out of that one should the economy turn sour, considering it's themselves which pushed for Brexit knowing the damage it would do to their people. A period of direct rule would be a further blow to unionism. The Conservatives will no doubt push through cuts to NI's budget in the coming years, and the likes of SF can use this as a bat to beat unionism with.
blanch152 wrote: » If Brexit is going to be that bad, then the South is going to suffer badly too, and won't be interested in adding another millstone to the economy.
RicePat wrote: » Good job it wont be then. Numerous studies have shown reunification would benefit the economy of the entire island.
blanch152 wrote: » Very interesting that the word "independent" was missing between "numerous" and "studies". Secondly, I prefer to use the term "unification" rather than "reunification" as the island has only ever been united under British rule. Finally, taking on the basket-case economy of Northern Ireland in a post-Brexit situation where the UK could no longer subsidise it would break the economy of the South. The austerity post-2008 would be a cakewalk in comparison.
blanch152 wrote: » Very interesting that the word "independent" was missing between "numerous" and "studies".
Political and economic unification of Ireland could potentially deliver a €35.6 billion boost in GDP for the island in the first eight years, according to a US study of reunification by two prominent academics. The economic research, launched in New York, suggests economic unification could possibly deliver a more sizeable boost in economic output and incomes in the North, with a predicted 4-7.5 per cent long-term improvement in GDP.The study, which involved a number of researchers led by Dr Kurt Hübner, director of the Institute for European Studies at the University of British Columbia, also highlighted that the Republic would see a more modest boost of between 0.7 to 1.2 per cent in GDP per capita.
blanch152 wrote: » Anita Blow wrote: » Are you sure about that? The next election will be in a post-brexit NI. While none of us know how that will eventually turn out, it's likely that NI specifically will not fare well from brexit. The DUP will not be able to argue their way out of that one should the economy turn sour, considering it's themselves which pushed for Brexit knowing the damage it would do to their people. A period of direct rule would be a further blow to unionism. The Conservatives will no doubt push through cuts to NI's budget in the coming years, and the likes of SF can use this as a bat to beat unionism with. If Brexit is going to be that bad, then the South is going to suffer badly too, and won't be interested in adding another millstone to the economy.
A Little Pony wrote: » The Southern establishment don't want anything to do with the two states merging.
FrancieBrady wrote: » If FG or FF for that matter can be seen as the leaders on this or even co-leaders, they will go for it bald headed, make no mistake. I always fancied a FF-SF coalition to be the one actually.
Jayop wrote: » It's certainly the strongest possibility. I can see SF make more ground up at the next election in the south if that happens and FF are the biggest party then you really could see that coalition happening.
Consonata wrote: » If the SF result in the north has any sway in the south, a FF/SF coalition seems unavoidable.
A Little Pony wrote: » Unionism wasn't prepared for this election. We will be better prepared for the next one. But in truth we can all talk about POC and the executive and so on but it isn't going to get off the ground anyway in my opinion. Unless Sinn Fein was just lying to Nationalists about Arlene Foster being a red line for entering into the executive. A period of direct rule is coming and the Assembly won't be up and running again for years. So in reality all we elected was the Tories ruling the place which for a conservative like me is fine but to others they won't like it.
Havockk wrote: » Ironically enough, Foster actually does pose a problem for SF now. That problem being that I would imagine that currently no one in SF actually want her to step down or resign as it would be much more beneficial for them to have an inept leader at the helm of the DUP.
Jayop wrote: » I dunno. They've backed themselves into a bit of a corner on it. While the end goal could be benefited by direct rule, it's a huge gamble as if people blame them for it and it causes massive austerity then they could be punished.
A Little Pony wrote: » It doesn't happen for Sinn Fein in Southern elections. They never get close to government. Proper government, not some bitch ass attempt to seem relevant.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Newton Emerson makes that point in an article in today's Irish Times. SF playing a long game here and some would say it is running rings around the DUP's inability to change. Interesting times.
Irishweather wrote: » Might not get what you want though.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Could you elaborate? I'm not sure if a series of one liners constitutes discussion.
Irishweather wrote: » The poorer Republic of Ireland can offer nothing that would be superior to the economic benefit that comes out of being an integral part of the United Kingdom.
