Localized strong wind threats on Wednesday (1st) and overnight (1st-2nd March)

The forecast situation is complex this morning and I rarely see such a wide range of solutions from various models within the first 24 hours.

There are two threats for locally strong winds that may develop, and confidence on both of these is moderate at best.

The first phase involves a rather slow-moving low and frontal wave approaching Kerry from the west. This may gain some energy during the late morning and begin to push inland and through the midlands to the east coast. If it does this, and if it also deepens as shown on one or two models, some gusty winds will develop south of its track. Potential here is less dramatic than the second phase and if this were the only item on the agenda no alert would be needed.

A second phase involves a small low that is embedded in a broad trough of low pressure that will slide in behind the southwest coast low, whatever its actual track, and some models are developing locally strong winds with this second low near the Mayo-Galway border as it approaches the west coast and moves inland some time between 2100h and 0300h (different models, different timing). I should add that some models do not resolve this feature at all and have no circulation or wind gradients of any note. But the Arpege which is running ahead of other guidance in recent weeks shows quite a strong gradient that may reach gusts ot 55 knots or 110 km/hr during the night (of 1-2 March). These stronger winds, if they develop, would likely track through roughly the same areas that saw peak winds from Doris last week. The system is much smaller and therefore weaker than Doris but could pack a punch in a narrow band from about Westport to Meath, overnight. Because it's a small system it may have little impact on the south but then again it could take a different track given this uncertainty.

I will post an update when the European model shows up around 0620h. This model was showing strong winds in the same time frame on the earlier (12z) run. The WRF model also shows windy conditions; the two leading North American models have failed to find this low and make little out of the earlier one.

What seems a bit more likely is outbreaks of heavy rain in some places during the period 0900h (southwest) to 1500h (east-central) and possibly again overnight in the north-central counties.