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Localized strong wind threats on Wednesday (1st) and overnight (1st-2nd March)

  • 01-03-2017 6:14am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    The forecast situation is complex this morning and I rarely see such a wide range of solutions from various models within the first 24 hours.

    There are two threats for locally strong winds that may develop, and confidence on both of these is moderate at best.

    The first phase involves a rather slow-moving low and frontal wave approaching Kerry from the west. This may gain some energy during the late morning and begin to push inland and through the midlands to the east coast. If it does this, and if it also deepens as shown on one or two models, some gusty winds will develop south of its track. Potential here is less dramatic than the second phase and if this were the only item on the agenda no alert would be needed.

    A second phase involves a small low that is embedded in a broad trough of low pressure that will slide in behind the southwest coast low, whatever its actual track, and some models are developing locally strong winds with this second low near the Mayo-Galway border as it approaches the west coast and moves inland some time between 2100h and 0300h (different models, different timing). I should add that some models do not resolve this feature at all and have no circulation or wind gradients of any note. But the Arpege which is running ahead of other guidance in recent weeks shows quite a strong gradient that may reach gusts ot 55 knots or 110 km/hr during the night (of 1-2 March). These stronger winds, if they develop, would likely track through roughly the same areas that saw peak winds from Doris last week. The system is much smaller and therefore weaker than Doris but could pack a punch in a narrow band from about Westport to Meath, overnight. Because it's a small system it may have little impact on the south but then again it could take a different track given this uncertainty.

    I will post an update when the European model shows up around 0620h. This model was showing strong winds in the same time frame on the earlier (12z) run. The WRF model also shows windy conditions; the two leading North American models have failed to find this low and make little out of the earlier one.

    What seems a bit more likely is outbreaks of heavy rain in some places during the period 0900h (southwest) to 1500h (east-central) and possibly again overnight in the north-central counties.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Thanks MT.

    My life up here revolves around the weather and i can just sort things before the next one hits.

    March coming in like a lion.

    Does your last para apply TODAY please?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Euro not quite as windy on this run as the 12z earlier but similar track, a bit north of the Arpege track. So far it's really just the one model with any hints of level one wind gusts, but be aware anyway that we are tracking and monitoring.

    Terrible outbreak of severe storms in the American midwest overnight, likely to continue all day moving east into New England and New York state eventually.

    So if you're wondering where things stand, let's say

    20% chance of severe wind gusts
    40% chance of moderately strong wind gusts

    about 10 to 20 per cent of the country could be affected; this will not be a widespread or long-lived event.

    I will update around 1030h after seeing some new guidance that comes out 09-10h.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Graces7 wrote: »
    Thanks MT.

    My life up here revolves around the weather and i can just sort things before the next one hits.

    March coming in like a lion.

    Does your last para apply TODAY please?

    More like a confused puppy than a lion, perhaps. Not quite a lamb though.

    But you are in one of the few places that the Arpege model is flagging for strong wind gusts, around midnight to 0300h at this point. Not as severe as Doris, it would appear.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Great analysis MT of the complex weather unfolding today. Will be interesting to see which model handels it best.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Going by the ARPEGE looks like strong winds moving into Kerry and Clare by the mid afternoon. Very windy for a time.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    New Weather warning in place:
    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wicklow, Offaly, Mayo and Roscommon

    Westerly winds will reach mean speeds of 55 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h this evening and at times tonight.
    Issued:
    Wednesday 01 March 2017 12:00
    Valid:
    Wednesday 01 March 2017 18:00 to Thursday 02 March 2017 09:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 199 ✭✭ IMBACKLATER


    update on previous warning...

    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Munster, Wexford and Galway
    Update on previous warning
    Extremely windy conditions expected from mid afternoon through tonight.
    West to northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 60 to 65km/h with gusts of 100 to 110km/h, with potentially more severe gusts locally in coastal fringes for short periods.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    update on previous warning...

    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Munster, Wexford and Galway
    Update on previous warning
    Extremely windy conditions expected from mid afternoon through tonight.
    West to northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 60 to 65km/h with gusts of 100 to 110km/h, with potentially more severe gusts locally in coastal fringes for short periods.

    Sounds like they are avoiding Orange warning to avoid naming it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 199 ✭✭ IMBACKLATER


    Villain wrote: »
    Sounds like they are avoiding Orange warning to avoid naming it.

    especially after the non event Ewan was.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    Villain wrote: »
    update on previous warning...

    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Munster, Wexford and Galway
    Update on previous warning
    Extremely windy conditions expected from mid afternoon through tonight.
    West to northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 60 to 65km/h with gusts of 100 to 110km/h, with potentially more severe gusts locally in coastal fringes for short periods.

    Sounds like they are avoiding Orange warning to avoid naming it.

    Yep must not be fans of Fleur.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Heavy rain has arrived in Tralee with the wind picking up. Feeling a lot cooler too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,101 ✭✭✭ weisses


    Heavy rain has arrived in Tralee with the wind picking up. Feeling a lot cooler too.

    Won't last long .... Blue skies in Dingle, cold though


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,101 ✭✭✭ weisses


    What I noticed during the heavy rain. that it was ded calm .. and now not even an hour later the wind really picked up ... Checking the wind short range on ME I noticed why

    Something I didn't see often


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Met Éireann wind warnings for the main airports up to tomorrow morning.

    Casement EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 020300/020600 SFC WIND W 20-25KT MAX 40-45 FCST NC=

    Dublin EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 020300/020700 SFC WIND W 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST NC=

    Knock EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 020100/020400 SFC WIND W 20-25KT MAX 40-45 FCST NC=

    Cork EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 011700/012300 SFC WIND W 20-25KT MAX 40-45 FCST NC=

    Shannon EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 011700/012300 SFC WIND W 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST NC=


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,174 ✭✭✭ sunbabe08


    Wet snow/hail down here in cork city. Wasn't expecting that today


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,298 ✭✭✭ Hooter23


    Heavy rain with some sleet mixed in Galway


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for updating this thread, seems that the first portion of this complex evolution is about to target parts of west Munster and Galway Bay.

    The second part timed for tonight was somewhat downgraded on the 06z Arpege which is further north (more of a Mayo to Donegal track now) and a few hours later (06-09h for peak winds). However confidence remains moderate at best on this one, could see further chopping and changing of this part of the forecast. I see some development on satellite imagery but even on the 06z GFS no sign of this system at all. Puzzling but I guess all will be revealed tonight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    sunbabe08 wrote: »
    Wet snow/hail down here in cork city. Wasn't expecting that today

    Cork airport went from 7c at 2pm to 1c at 2:30!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,862 ✭✭✭✭ leahyl


    There was an almighty hail shower about a half hour ago - never seen the likes of it!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,005 ✭✭✭ pilly


    weisses wrote: »
    Won't last long .... Blue skies in Dingle, cold though

    Did I see a photo of snow in Dingle in the paper yesterday?


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,005 ✭✭✭ pilly


    Could feel the temperature drop here about half an hour ago, really sudden drop.


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    With this sudden drop does this mean snow for lower levels


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    With this sudden drop does this mean snow for lower levels

    Oh god.

    You mean this forecast sudden drop? Sleet on most lower levels, wet snow if your lucky, it might stick if you're on a mountain, basically what everyone's been saying all day.

    It's march now, anything now is very marginal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Knock airport reporting sleet at 4pm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    More like a confused puppy than a lion, perhaps. Not quite a lamb though.

    But you are in one of the few places that the Arpege model is flagging for strong wind gusts, around midnight to 0300h at this point. Not as severe as Doris, it would appear.

    Thanks. Just back from the day away and beat the first gusts up the mountain by a neck....

    I was in Mayo when the deluges started, around 1.30 pm and the roads were getting awash already ...

    Getting wild out there up here already, but all is in and safe.

    It was a glorious morning; a strange white sunrise with horizontal grey and white cloud banks. Monochrome


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    Rain has arrived here in Waterford and we got that sudden drop in temps. Went from 7.8c to 4.0c in just 10mins.

    Live Stream @ www.waterfordcityweather.com


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Okay, the 12z Arpege says game on for tonight with the low back onto the earlier track and looking stronger, even though the 12z GFS failed to find even a trace of this small but powerful low. It should be approaching the Mayo-Galway coast by about 8-9 p.m. and moving inland just before midnight, then accelerating through Roscommon, Longford, Westmeath overnight. Strong winds are indicated for counties between Galway and Dublin, and north although not including north coast of Ulster at this point. Peak gusts 55 knots or close to 110 km/hr. Still some potential for further development on this.

    The first round is now moving through central counties and pushing heavy rainfalls through Leinster towards Dublin.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,446 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Okay, the 12z Arpege says game on for tonight with the low back onto the earlier track and looking stronger, even though the 12z GFS failed to find even a trace of this small but powerful low. It should be approaching the Mayo-Galway coast by about 8-9 p.m. and moving inland just before midnight, then accelerating through Roscommon, Longford, Westmeath overnight. Strong winds are indicated for counties between Galway and Dublin, and north although not including north coast of Ulster at this point. Peak gusts 55 knots or close to 110 km/hr. Still some potential for further development on this.

    The first round is now moving through central counties and pushing heavy rainfalls through Leinster towards Dublin.


    Crap it's like Doris all over again!


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Okay, the 12z Arpege says game on for tonight with the low back onto the earlier track and looking stronger, even though the 12z GFS failed to find even a trace of this small but powerful low. It should be approaching the Mayo-Galway coast by about 8-9 p.m. and moving inland just before midnight, then accelerating through Roscommon, Longford, Westmeath overnight. Strong winds are indicated for counties between Galway and Dublin, and north although not including north coast of Ulster at this point. Peak gusts 55 knots or close to 110 km/hr. Still some potential for further development on this.

    The first round is now moving through central counties and pushing heavy rainfalls through Leinster towards Dublin.

    Well, we have HAIL and wet snow up here now... West Connemara, 400 ft asl. And strong gusts.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,101 ✭✭✭ weisses


    pilly wrote: »
    Did I see a photo of snow in Dingle in the paper yesterday?

    Maybe on the Mountains ? or some hail that didn't thaw straight away

    Didn't see any myself


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