FPL Chips / Wildcard Strategy 2016/17

iroced · 23-01-2017 4:37pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

I agree they're distracting, ignore them and they'll leave you alone

Well no, we live in democracies (though here these chips have been totalitarianistically imposed to us :pac:), I can disagree with the rule but respect and follow it.

These chips are now a full part of the game, I have to adapt even if I don't like them. Something I'd have liked is FPL asking the players what they think of it. Maybe even after a few years of using them. Good idea for most? Keep 'em. Bad idea? Remove 'em.

Anyway, that's a complete different point than the one I'm making in my previous post.

Iused2likebusts · 23-01-2017 4:44pm

iroced wrote: »

Let's use this GW22 Matchday Thread question to develop further my perception of it in here.

For me the BB (and to a lesser extent AOA) is not a 1 GW chip. Since most plan their team ahead for using the chips. So to be perfectly fair, you'd have to take into account the GWs around the use of the chip to assess its efficiency. I mean without the chips, you'd have certainly played very differently.

Personally, I got 11 pts from my bench. Heaton, Defoe, Holebas, Baines.

11 pts look crap when GW1&2 respectively got me 25 & 24 pts on the bench.
But, I WCed last GW and got a massive 101 pts. It's a part of my BB since I selected most of my team accordingly.

Examples of how wrong and deceptive it can be to look at your BB over the sole GW you're playing it.
Holebas 0 pointer. Defoe & Giroud 2 pointers.
During my WC, I debated B'mouth def instead of Holebas. The best one of them is Smith. Got 6 pts at the week-end. But he returned 0 last GW. Holebas did the opposite and I precisely had kept him for his good fixture last GW hoping he'd provide attacking pts this GW. So "deuce" here .

Defoe & Giroud. £15.4m. 6+2 & 5+2. Obviously Kane returned much better. 17+5. But he was worth £11.0m. And there's no option upfront at £4.4m. If I had kept Costa whom I got in very late I'd have only increased this amount to £4.7m IIRC. Don't think there are any options I'd have been happy with for that price. And anyway Costa did not outscore any of these 2 significantly. So, the only alternative was to save money from my midfield (Sanchez, Alli, Phillips, Pedro, Coutinho). I wanted 'Pool attacking cover and did not fancy any of their forwards so got a midfielder instead. Pb is I got Coutinho which makes this attacking 3-way plan fail. Stanislas would have been much better of course over the 2 GWs. He's the only one I debated so no point looking elsewhere.

[*]Now 2 other "opposite" examples...

McAuley & Alli. Kept them both (actually got Alli for Eriksen) with a long-term view in mind. Brunt was doubtful during my WC week so could not make the sideway move. McAuley stayed on my bench last GW and returned above expectations this GW. Alli exactly matched Eriksen over the 2 GWs. And the only player with a favourbale BB fixture who outscore him is Firmino whom I did not consider at all for some reason I don't understand myself :pac:.

Pedro & Coutinho whom I precisely got in for BB purpose. Plan was to bench Coutinho last GW and hope for a masterclass this week-end. Pedro was there because of the Costa situation and plan was to reassess now before Chelsea tougher run of 2/3 fixtures. Pedro returned great over the 2 games so despite his 3 pointer yesterday I count him as a great success. Coutinho was the disaster.

[*]I could go on like that. Phillips in the first category. Disappointing. Giroud & Defoe in the second. Decent.

I'm now left with a strong defense, Alonso Baines with McAuley Chambers Holebas to rotate. I could add Phillips to the rotation depending on fixtures.
Pedro, Giroud & Defoe situations to be assessed as planned. Coutinho is the spanner in the works.

So far, my BB is successful but my BB is not my 11 extra points of GW22. It's part of a mid-term plan. It includes my gigantic score last GW and will include my next 2/3 GWs scores. And I believe this applies to everyone. Or, you'd have to play your BB either without any planning or inconsciously on a random GW. If someone had done it for me for either GW1 or 2, I could have said I gained 25/24 pts thanks to BB. For GW 10 & 11 I'd have added the grand total of 0 point to my scores. But the way I played it, summarising it on the 11 pts I added to my GW22 score is only the visible part of the iceberg.

And I'd say this also applies to the AOA that most of us play when we think we have a strong enough front 8. I played mine in a week where I did not want to use a transfer or -4 for a def I wanted to keep long-term but was either suspended or injured for that very GW. I got no benefit from it since one of my doubtful def did eventually play and got the same return than my 5th mid. C'est la vie.

TC is different since it doesn't require any large planning. In general, you go for a premium candidate over a DGW. In general too you do not go for Lukaku :pac:.

Overall though, I don't like what these chips bring to the game. They're just a bunch of distracting gadgets.

Agree with what you are saying and its why I dispute the conventional wildcard before a dgw and then BB being the only strategy. I've been banging this drum a long time and its why I'd in no way hesitate to play an early wildcard or bb in a sgw. I think deep down a lot of people like to have the so called boost in your rankings at the end when in reality it makes no difference when you get the boost. In particular if your not happy with your team your crazy to wait till the end.

iroced · 23-01-2017 4:58pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Agree with what you are saying and its why I dispute the conventional wildcard before a dgw and then BB being the only strategy. I've been banging this drum a long time and its why I'd in no way hesitate to play an early wildcard or bb in a sgw. I think deep down a lot of people like to have the so called boost in your rankings at the end when in reality it makes no difference when you get the boost. In particular if your not happy with your team your crazy to wait till the end.

True but the game has changed though. The conventional WC strategy you're refering to is almost an utopia now. We're seeing far more rotation from last year and the huge PL deal than in the past. Probably a combination of the big money of the PL that allow 20 big and more talented PL sides that make every game a tougher challenge than in the past, and the arrival of rotation-prone managers (Klopp, Guardiola, etc...). e.g. Klopp rotated Mignolet for the DGW last year :eek:. That was probably a premiere in the (FPL) game.
But, in the past, if you never needed more than an 8 pts hit to suit your team, a late WC could bring huge dividends over the late DGWs. I used it successfully 2 years in a row. I also used successfully an early WC twice. There's no unique way of playing anyway. But I feel now the late WC for BB purposes is too dependent on luck to be a great strategy. And for example, this season, I'd rather use my WC (if I still had it) to absorb the blanks better than the others than keep it for the late DGW.

Iused2likebusts · 23-01-2017 5:04pm

I wouldn't class klopp as a rotational manager based on his time at Liverpool. The last 8-10 games of last season it was clear that the Europa lge was the main goal and teams were picked with that in mind. The league position became fairly irrelevant and I think he just targeted certain lge games in the run in and used others to have a look at squad players. He pretty much picks the same team every week this season when players are fit.

iroced · 23-01-2017 7:57pm

Yeah that's true regarding the Europa League last year. But I thought he was rotating a bit his attacking players while in Dortmund. Must check that...
I feel he's also a manager who's not afraid of an early change if needs be.
Which is essentially a pretty good thing. Just not quite FPL-compatible.

Benimar · 23-01-2017 8:44pm

iroced wrote: »

Yeah that's true regarding the Europa League last year. But I thought he was rotating a bit his attacking players while in Dortmund. Must check that...
I feel he's also a manager who's not afraid of an early change if needs be.
Which is essentially a pretty good thing. Just not quite FPL-compatible.

I think you will find that one of the criticisms of Klopp is that he is slow to make subs at times. A lot of his 'early' subs seem planned in advance and involve players coming back from injury coming on/going off. In match tactical subs tend to be made quite late i.e. After the 75th minute.

If everyone is available his starting XI is clear and with no Europe I don't foresee much (if any) rotation.

iroced · 24-01-2017 1:53am

@Benimar. All right... I guess I must have a biased perception cause Klopp stung me so many times FPL-wise :pac:.

skippy15 · 26-01-2017 8:03pm

Am I mad to consider bb this get, 15 playing players once rose and Kane passed fit
Foster
Alonso rose baines
Sanchez Ali coutinho Stanislaus Pedro
Kane iba

Jakup_ mun
Friend_ west Bromwich
Crouch_eve
Holg_stoke

sashafierce · 30-01-2017 3:27pm

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Scorpion Sting · 30-01-2017 3:31pm

sashafierce wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Wildcards are split into two parts since last season so you can use the first up until GW19 and the second from GW20 until GW38.

sashafierce · 30-01-2017 3:44pm

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beaver111 · 30-01-2017 6:39pm

i done my wild card what do uses think

beaver111 · 30-01-2017 6:44pm

foster , grant . apcilicueta . walker coleman. nyom. pieters. sterling. alli . walcott . antonio . schneiderlin . kane. caroll . ibrah.

Scorpion Sting · 30-01-2017 7:23pm

sashafierce wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Not anymore. It's one wildcard for the first half of the season and one wildcard for the second half.

Shanotheslayer · 30-01-2017 7:40pm

beaver111 wrote: »

foster , grant . apcilicueta . walker coleman. nyom. pieters. sterling. alli . walcott . antonio . schneiderlin . kane. caroll . ibrah.

Why Schneiderlin if you don't mind me asking?

Dempsey · 07-02-2017 10:01pm

Still have all my chips, must look into using my WC at least.

This GW or wait until the internationals?

ElTel · 07-02-2017 11:47pm

Dempsey wrote: »

Still have all my chips, must look into using my WC at least.

This GW or wait until the internationals?

I'm waiting for the GW29 at the earliest but mat still leave it later.

iroced · 08-02-2017 12:13am

Dempsey wrote: »

Still have all my chips, must look into using my WC at least.

This GW or wait until the internationals?

If I still had mine I'd either
1. Try and get as many players for GW28 huge blank (without taking too many hits if possible) and WC right after to readjust my team ;
2. Play it for the late DGW (maybe even waiting for THE DGW itself - the WC 1 GW before the BB GW was a russian roulette last year so even 1 GW is too much an aniticpation I'd say

).

- edit -
But if you feel you need to WC before that, then WC. Waiting and planning for the perfect late WC is a kinda deceptive illusion. 'Cause if your team isn't in great shape you'll need an absolute perfect WC to recover from all you'd have lost before it.

ArmaniJeanss · 08-02-2017 12:46am

Many of the 'wrong' teams, Liverpool in particular, had DGWs last year. And the teams we needed to have a DGW like Leicester and Spurs didn't.
At this stage it looks likely to be a more favourable set of teams, so should be much less of a 'Russian Roulette'. Last season could ultimately become the exception.

iroced · 08-02-2017 1:29am

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Many of the 'wrong' teams, Liverpool in particular, had DGWs last year. And the teams we needed to have a DGW like Leicester and Spurs didn't.
At this stage it looks likely to be a more favourable set of teams, so should be much less of a 'Russian Roulette'. Last season could ultimately become the exception.

That's right.

But, at this rhythm, Chelsea may well have the title secured by then. On the contrary, Liverpool may be out of the game for CL spot. Who knows, the positions might be more sealed than we'd like them to be.

For what I can remember my best late DGWs were mainly made of secondary teams players, e.g. I remember Dempsey at Fulham being a super hero for me (particularly considering his fairly low ownership).

Now, let's hope for City, Spurs, Arsenal & MU fighting for a CL spot over a DGW. Then it'll be game on

!

My main point though regarding this second WC and I realise I did not express it well enough is not to be overly focused on plannig (too much) ahead. If you need to WC before the blanks and DGWs, just do it. And you'll worry about them when the time'll come.

pimpmyhat · 08-02-2017 8:04pm

So is the first dgw in GW 34 or do we know yet?

Iused2likebusts · 08-02-2017 8:44pm

pimpmyhat wrote: »

So is the first dgw in GW 34 or do we know yet?

More than likely although if city arsenal or utd make the fa cup semi final and go out of Europe there could be a dgw involving them before that date.

ElTel · 10-02-2017 2:47pm

BB a serious consideration for me this GW.
I've a FT and 2.2 itb. I'm rolling it all things been egual.

Grant (Mannone)
Alonso Brunt Chambers (Pieters, Funes Mori)
Sanchez Hazard Siggy Phillips (Fraser)
Ibra Kane Gray

The big negative of course is the extra info we get before GW26 starts re. DGWs.
The advantage (as I see it) is the "simplification" it gives me in the planning process for the final third of the season with a less constrained WC.

CSF · 10-02-2017 8:54pm

ElTel wrote: »

BB a serious consideration for me this GW.
I've a FT and 2.2 itb. I'm rolling it all things been egual.

Grant (Mannone)
Alonso Brunt Chambers (Pieters, Funes Mori)
Sanchez Hazard Siggy Phillips (Fraser)
Ibra Kane Gray

The big negative of course is the extra info we get before GW26 starts re. DGWs.
The advantage (as I see it) is the "simplification" it gives me in the planning process for the final third of the season with a less constrained WC.

Just looking at that team, I'd do it. Upgrade Gray with that money and you're ready to take on the world this week with that team.

FHFC · 08-05-2017 11:45pm

Before the transfers thread goes any more off topic....

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

It all depends on the fixtures. If they are decent I'm going for it. Its the only chance you have to BB and then wildcard to sort your team. Most won't entertain it due to the psychological boost at the end .

I don't think it's necessarily the boost at the end that people are hooked on. From what I see here and on Twitter it's more that people can't separate the 4 bench players from the 11 you'd be playing anyway. Few see it that 20 for your bench boost in a SGW where you scored 65 in total is worth the exact same as 20 for your bench boost in a DGW where you scored 150.

This mirage was compounded by DGW34 last season where people associated the massive 150+ scores with playing BB, regardless of the fact that they'd probably have scored most of their total without a BB.

So the idea of playing BB in a DGW with 14 or 15 DGWers is stuck in the FPL psyche, with logic and maths falling by the wayside.

You were possibly the first person I saw question this. And I certainly saw merit in your argument, but I'd incorrectly over valued team value issue I mentioned already. I also thought, and there is still merit in this, that 4 extra players x2 has good odds of scoring more than 4x1.

That point is not completely out of the window. And just as the early BB plan depends on the fixtures the DGW BB plan totally depends on the DGW fixtures and (crucially) what teams have to play for. There are somewhat unusual circumstances for the big DGW this year just as there were last year.

Last year, unusually, the title challengers and their big hitters had no DGWs. This year they do (although it could now be over halfway thru the double) but it's the cheap assets that are the problem. Most of the teams with good cheap attackers and defs either have no double (Hull, Swans, Palace) or those that do mostly have nothing to play for due to being safe or already relegated (Watford, Sunderland, Leicester, Southampton). This was predictable mind you with the big DGW being so late.

That may not be the case next year. If for example Sunderland weren't already gone Pickford, Kone, Defoe and even Anichibe could've been gold. Even Watford if they were fighting could offer good options. As it stands the cheaper bench players with doubles who make up a BB for DGW37 are either rubbish, on the beach or both. In many cases SGW players with good fixtures are more appealing.

In theory the 4 DGWers BB should have a higher baseline than a SGW bench. The circumstances make the DGWers look unappealing this year, but it remains to be seen whether benches full of muck FPL players like Kone, Britos, Capoue, Anichibe or Leicester lads with 2 atrocious fixtures still manage to rack up 20+ points from their doubles.

So it's far from open and shut, and as ever flexibility is key. That is the main doubt I have over using the BB so early. Unless those early fixtures were really really good I'd probably be tempted to hold the BB and play it in a SGW in the second half of the season if the DGW landscape was looking dodgy - very late, or with lots of top teams out of the cups early.

ElTel · 09-05-2017 12:04am

FHFC wrote: »

Before the transfers thread goes any more off topic....

I don't think it's necessarily the boost at the end that people are hooked on. From what I see here and on Twitter it's more that people can't separate the 4 bench players from the 11 you'd be playing anyway. Few see it that 20 for your bench boost in a SGW where you scored 65 in total is worth the exact same as 20 for your bench boost in a DGW where you scored 150.

This mirage was compounded by DGW34 last season where people associated the massive 150+ scores with playing BB, regardless of the fact that they'd probably have scored most of their total without a BB.

So the idea of playing BB in a DGW with 14 or 15 DGWers is stuck in the FPL psyche, with logic and maths falling by the wayside.

You were possibly the first person I saw question this. And I certainly saw merit in your argument, but I'd incorrectly over valued team value issue I mentioned already. I also thought, and there is still merit in this, that 4 extra players x2 has good odds of scoring more than 4x1.

That point is not completely out of the window. And just as the early BB plan depends on the fixtures the DGW BB plan totally depends on the DGW fixtures and (crucially) what teams have to play for. There are somewhat unusual circumstances for the big DGW this year just as there were last year.

Last year, unusually, the title challengers and their big hitters had no DGWs. This year they do (although it could now be over halfway thru the double) but it's the cheap assets that are the problem. Most of the teams with good cheap attackers and defs either have no double (Hull, Swans, Palace) or those that do mostly have nothing to play for due to being safe or already relegated (Watford, Sunderland, Leicester, Southampton). This was predictable mind you with the big DGW being so late.

That may not be the case next year. If for example Sunderland weren't already gone Pickford, Kone, Defoe and even Anichibe could've been gold. Even Watford if they were fighting could offer good options. As it stands the cheaper bench players with doubles who make up a BB for DGW37 are either rubbish, on the beach or both. In many cases SGW players with good fixtures are more appealing.

In theory the 4 DGWers BB should have a higher baseline than a SGW bench. The circumstances make the DGWers look unappealing this year, but it remains to be seen whether benches full of muck FPL players like Kone, Britos, Capoue, Anichibe or Leicester lads with 2 atrocious fixtures still manage to rack up 20+ points from their doubles.

So it's far from open and shut, and as ever flexibility is key. That is the main doubt I have over using the BB so early. Unless those early fixtures were really really good I'd probably be tempted to hold the BB and play it in a SGW in the second half of the season if the DGW landscape was looking dodgy - very late, or with lots of top teams out of the cups early.

You packed a lot in there.
Notwithstanding fixtures, for me it's the advantage of the simplification of the second (probably earlier) WC planning and perhaps a squad of 12-13 versus 4 extra games for the BB chip used in tandem with a later WC

FHFC · 09-05-2017 12:09am

ElTel wrote: »

You packed a lot in there.
Notwithstanding fixtures, for me it's the advantage of the simplification of the second (probably earlier) WC planning and perhaps a squad of 12-13 versus 4 extra games for the BB chip used in tandem with a later WC

Spot on. And shorter.

I do think there's still a big bonus in having the second WC for the DGW planning even without BB. IF you don't need it earlier then thats the ideal for me. With no BB you can then put cheap enabler on bench (Ake for example) and make use of your team value for a great DGW 11.

Another option for the BB would be to get in 3 or 4 cheaper doublers for the bench in a smaller DGW and have WC to sort it out for the main one.

If DGW34 hadn't been sooo awful that coulda worked. Probably woulda worked well for DGW27 if we hadn't have written off Stoke.

iroced · 09-05-2017 12:20am

I think the major flaw in people's mind with the BB chip is it is not in reality a 1 GW chip. People keep saying they got x amount of points from their BB on the GW they used it but most if not all of them planned for it. They got players in specifically for that BB GW. Many took hits for it. Maybe with a post BB WC in mind. Or they WCed and built their team in order to suit the BB. In the end, contrary to what most people look at (how much added pts I got on the BB GW), their BB influenced 4/5/6 GWs if not more of their season.

Using it in GW1 will reduce its effect since many players go with an early WC (that would also correct the BB team if necessary) but it could be a lottery since we may not know who are the best players to have then. Pre-season games can be deceptive with players' form (it wasn't this year though).

FHFC · 09-05-2017 12:53am

Yeh there lots of ways to skin this cat. And a bit like the TC the variance between good (20-30pts maybe?) and bad (10-15pts maybe) is small compared to regular Captaincy or general FPL management.

I think in some ways the issue of top sides not having DGWs (like last year) is less relevant. It's not having cheaper DGWers that is the problem.

If the DGW could possibly be GW34 next year and the equivalent of say Hull (decent form, good home defence, 4m keeper and several defs under 4.5, cheap attacking mids) had 2 good fixtures then a bench of 2 or 3 from them alone, even in a small DGW, could push the ceiling towards the 30pt mark.

iroced · 09-05-2017 1:32am

FHFC wrote: »

Yeh there lots of ways to skin this cat. And a bit like the TC the variance between good (20-30pts maybe?) and bad (10-15pts maybe) is small compared to regular Captaincy or general FPL management.

This is the part where I seem to be the only one seeing it differently.

I BBed in GW22. Got 11 added pts from my bench. 1 player injured. So sounds pretty bad.
But I had WCed the week just before where I had a monster 101 pointer boosting me up to 127k from 301k! This WC team had a couple of players I got or kept because I isolated GW22 as a good one for BB. My injured BB player in GW22 got a CS in GW21. So what I did not gain in GW22, I gained it in GW21.

And when I say that BB can have a much longer influence on your team than what people would generally think, I'm carrying Randolph since this WC (thought he was great for GW22 but he wasn't) and he's been impeding me few moves because of the extra £0.5m he's eating with regards to Jakupovic for example (now it was a very unlucky timing since Jaku came back playing the very week I WCed). Now I could have gotten rid of him but never found a justfiable enough GW to take this -4.

Dicky2016 · 15-05-2017 2:25pm

Wildcard GW36 and BB GW37 has been a disaster so far!
Might have to re-think this strategy for next season.
Teams having nothing to play for is a killer

Iused2likebusts · 15-05-2017 6:17pm

Dicky2016 wrote: »

Wildcard GW36 and BB GW37 has been a disaster so far!
Might have to re-think this strategy for next season.
Teams having nothing to play for is a killer

I see ffs are finally having a discussion on the fact that maybe there is more than one way to play your BB.

Western Pomise · 15-05-2017 8:42pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

I see ffs are finally having a discussion on the fact that maybe there is more than one way to play your BB.

What in essence are they suggesting?

Iused2likebusts · 17-05-2017 10:47am

Western Pomise wrote: »

What in essence are they suggesting?

Just exploring other options and being open to BB in a sgw whereas previous discussion was always there is only one way to approach it. I remain convinced that TC is the chip to value most . The TC does not impact on your team in the weeks before and after the gw you play it. The BB does so even if it works out well for you in the gw you play it. There are knock on effects either side of that gw. I really hope to BB in gw 1 next year.

Shedite27 · 17-05-2017 12:24pm

While I feel by TC was wasted (on Aguero's DGW for 8 points), bench boost this week has been decent...
Pickford - 6
Zaha - 8
Stephens - 0 (hopefully something tonight
Mawson - 6

PVA · 17-05-2017 9:53pm

With so many 100+ scores it's easy to attribute this to the Double Gameweek effect, however of the seven players of mine that were due a DGW, six of them were dropped for one of those games. Thankfully, the one player that has actually played two games this week was triple captain Sanchez.

Double Gameweek my arse, this is Alexis week.

Bleating Lamb · 18-05-2017 11:41am

A lad in one of my leagues who has an overall rank of around 12k only used the WC this week,seems strange unless he planned it .

Benimar · 18-05-2017 11:49am

Bleating Lamb wrote: »

A lad in one of my leagues who has an overall rank of around 12k only used the WC this week,seems strange unless he planned it .

A guy in mine was ranked 15k and only used the WC this week. He is now 45k..fair to say it didn't work out for him :eek:

Iused2likebusts · 18-05-2017 12:07pm

Bleating Lamb wrote: »

A lad in one of my leagues who has an overall rank of around 12k only used the WC this week,seems strange unless he planned it .

If you have used the TC chip I think there is merit in waiting till gw37 as you have all the data and can get 4 cheapies and 11 really strong dgw players.

Metalpanic · 18-05-2017 12:35pm

Through indecision and generally being happy with my team, I still have my WC to play. 15 points behind the leader in my league (hopefully less after tonight). We both BB'd this week, he had Sanchez as captain and went from third to first. I have some big choices to make!

FPL Chips / Wildcard Strategy 2016/17

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