Buying bitcoins

zulutango · 06-12-2016 2:01pm

Alb, can you explain more about transaction fees? Am I right in that a transaction can be set up in such a way so as to minimise the fees, but that it's slower. I tried transferring a very small amount of btc from one wallet to another, but the suggested fee was a fair chunk of the overall amount (which was small in any case). When I tried to reduce the fee I got a notification that the transaction might never be verified. Do the btc get lost in that situation? Or do they just not send?

howamidifferent · 06-12-2016 4:15pm

zulutango wrote: »

Alb, can you explain more about transaction fees? Am I right in that a transaction can be set up in such a way so as to minimise the fees, but that it's slower. I tried transferring a very small amount of btc from one wallet to another, but the suggested fee was a fair chunk of the overall amount (which was small in any case). When I tried to reduce the fee I got a notification that the transaction might never be verified. Do the btc get lost in that situation? Or do they just not send?

HI Zulu,
I sold 1.5BTC last week and set the trasnaction fee to 0. I got the same message as you quote above, but the bitcoin arrived in the correct wallet in under an hour regardless.

alb · 06-12-2016 4:52pm

Here's how transaction fees work, I need to explain a bit about mining first: when you make a transaction your wallet broadcasts it to the network, it should eventually reach all miners and nodes. Miners gather pending transactions and include them in a block, which confirms them.
- One of the miners will solve a block on average every ten minutes
- Each block can contain up to 1MB of data
- The miner that solves a block gets to keep the fees of all the transactions included in that block.
- transactions vary in data size, depending on how many different addresses the coins being used came from and are going to.

Which transactions get included in a block (and therefore confirmed) is at the total discretion of the miners. Historically miners have generally included transactions with no fee when the pending transactions they have are under the 1MB limit anyway. When they have more transactions pending than will fit in the next block they prioritise those with the highest fees.

Lately bitcoin has been getting busier and there are many times where there is a large (enough to fill many blocks) set of pending transactions. During these times you could be waiting a long time for a zero fee transaction to confirm. This is why there is now a huge scaling debate, bitcoin is hitting its transaction limit more frequently.

zulutango wrote: »

When I tried to reduce the fee I got a notification that the transaction might never be verified. Do the btc get lost in that situation? Or do they just not send?

Bitcoins cannot get lost like this. Either the transaction gets confirmed and they move, or it doesn't and they stay where they were. What can happen though is wallets may be in limbo as they don't know if the transaction will confirm or not, so it may not let you resend those same coins in another transaction until the original one has been 'forgotten'. Some wallets now also support a new feature that lets a transaction be re-broadcast with a higher fee to replace one that isn't getting confirmed, I've never used this feature personally though.

zulutango · 06-12-2016 5:18pm

Cheers!

So, when all the bitcoins are mined, the miners will still be required to verify transactions?

alb · 06-12-2016 6:00pm

Yes miners are essential to the system. All bitcoins being mined is 100 years away, but the same concern applies for when the amount of new bitcoins per block drops low enough that there may not be sufficient incentive for sufficient mining power. Personally I think we're at least 8 years away from that being an issue, but if it becomes an issue bitcoin will either need transaction fees to be high enough (in total, not necessarily meaning each user transaction will be expensive) or another solution.

seklly · 06-12-2016 6:03pm

zulutango wrote: »

So, when all the bitcoins are mined, the miners will still be required to verify transactions?

Miners will still be required to verify transactions on the network so that begs the question of how they remain profitable.

I think one possibility is that as the block reward decreases (by half every 4 years), the network will hopefully be getting more popular as time goes by and transaction fees will increase to offset the absence of the block reward for miners.
Another would be that Bitcoin becomes so widespread and mining chips so cheap that they are in virtually all network connected devices (phones, TVs, modems etc.) so the mining process becomes much more decentralised than it currently is.

But that's all speculative as nobody can see into the future!

Also I see that you were asking about sending small amounts of bitcoin from one wallet to another, if you're just testing to get a feel for it you could also use the Bitcoin test network (called the Testnet) to try it out. Coins on the Testnet have no monetory value and are just used for test purposes. if on Android you could download the Mycelium Testnet Wallet.

Capt'n Midnight · 10-12-2016 5:39pm

seklly wrote: »

[*]Another would be that Bitcoin becomes so widespread and mining chips so cheap that they are in virtually all network connected devices (phones, TVs, modems etc.) so the mining process becomes much more decentralised than it currently is.

WTF?

Bitcoin mining is using several hundred MW of electricity at present, and your plan is to use less efficient devices ? The energy costs would be enormous.

A smartphone uses less than a third of a Watt on average. You'd need a billion phones to equal the energy consumption of bitmining. Same is true of a TV on standby. And beside using anything that isn't optimised for bitmining is just a complete waste of electricity.

PrzemoF · 10-12-2016 10:29pm

It's definitely waste of energy and not a sustainable way to keep bitcoins alive, but it has been done.

"Here’s something we haven’t seen before: security camera recorders hacked and used to mine bitcoin.

The issue was first reported by Johannes Ullrich, an instructor at the SANS Technology Institute — a computer security training organization. Last Friday, he discovered malicious software infecting the Hikvision DVRs used to record video from security cameras. The malware jumps from device to device, trying to infect any other machines it can find on the network. But it also tries to earn a little scratch for its creators by mining bitcoins, a processor-intensive activity that would probably slow down any infected DVR."

https://www.wired.com/2014/04/hikvision/

zulutango · 12-12-2016 4:06pm

What are your thoughts on the scaling issue?

From what I read there's somewhat of a stalemate in further development of the software underpinning bitcoin, but I don't understand it really.

Whatever about the technical details, what are the possible consequences? Could the stalemate lead to the side-lining of bitcoin and give an impetus to an alternative cryptocurrency?

G.Gershwin · 21-12-2016 4:08pm

What is driving the price up the last few days? Trading at $830 now

alb · 21-12-2016 6:39pm

G.Gershwin wrote: »

What is driving the price up the last few days? Trading at $830 now

Nothing new. Some mix of demand outpacing supply and speculation. Anyone's guess how much of each.

makeorbrake · 23-12-2016 1:25am

India has taken certain bank notes out of circulation to combat corruption/tax evasion. Funds continue to pour into btc from China. Otherwise, there is some degree of an uptick in confidence that issues surrounding btc's ability to deal with large scale payments may not be an issue going forward.

{^Syntax^} · 23-12-2016 7:58am

Just ordered in some mining equipment from China. Bought a few Bitcoins when they were €500 a pop, now they are about €870 on coinbase.com - I think Crypto Currencies is the start of a financial revolution, now is the time to get in, if not already a little late

makeorbrake · 23-12-2016 9:21am

{^Syntax^} wrote: »

now is the time to get in, if not already a little late

I'm thinking its a bit late. I was going to go all in and put the rest of my savings in btc 6 months back. I procrastinated and feel it would be much more risky now. That said, I can't complain - I've a nice few quid in btc since a couple of years back.

{^Syntax^} · 23-12-2016 10:16am

makeorbrake wrote: »

I'm thinking its a bit late. I was going to go all in and put the rest of my savings in btc 6 months back. I procrastinated and feel it would be much more risky now. That said, I can't complain - I've a nice few quid in btc since a couple of years back.

Bought a few myself but only this year - There are still several million BTC left to be mined so going to give it a shot. Could turn into something great or may not but worth a try.

alb · 23-12-2016 5:05pm

{^Syntax^} wrote: »

Bought a few myself but only this year - There are still several million BTC left to be mined so going to give it a shot. Could turn into something great or may not but worth a try.

If you still can, do yourself a favour and cancel the order. You're not going to be able to mine profitably in Ireland. It's cheaper to buy coins than mine them.

Bitcoin made a new EUR all-time high on kraken today. It has also recently made AUD and GBP all-time highs this week and is really moving faster now. Bit of a retrace today after it broke $900 for a while.

Bloomberg is reporting: "Bitcoin is extending a rally that’s beaten every major currency, stock index and commodity contract in 2016."

{^Syntax^} · 27-12-2016 8:23am

alb wrote: »

If you still can, do yourself a favour and cancel the order. You're not going to be able to mine profitably in Ireland. It's cheaper to buy coins than mine them.

Bitcoin made a new EUR all-time high on kraken today. It has also recently made AUD and GBP all-time highs this week and is really moving faster now. Bit of a retrace today after it broke $900 for a while.

Bloomberg is reporting: "Bitcoin is extending a rally that’s beaten every major currency, stock index and commodity contract in 2016."

Already own a few and yes, they're over €870 this morning.

I disagree on not being able to mine profitably - I already have a completely solar powered room

The Duke of Moral Hazard · 28-12-2016 1:52pm

Hi,

Just wondering if someone can suggest an exchange where I can buy instantaneously? (There's likely may suggestions already however it's a long way back to trawl through all the pages)

I have tried Coinbase but there seems to be a 5 day waiting time for SEPA payments to clear.

Any suggestions on a wallet recommendation would also be welcome. I hear Electrum is good along with other hardware solutions.

Cheers!

pH · 29-12-2016 9:42am

The Duke of Moral Hazard wrote: »

Hi,

Just wondering if someone can suggest an exchange where I can buy instantaneously? (There's likely may suggestions already however it's a long way back to trawl through all the pages)

I have tried Coinbase but there seems to be a 5 day waiting time for SEPA payments to clear.

Any suggestions on a wallet recommendation would also be welcome. I hear Electrum is good along with other hardware solutions.

Cheers!

Localbitcoins.com facilitate face to face purchases, and have a reasonable security feature that "proves" to you that the seller has actually transferred the bitcoins. However as you'd expect most sellers add a large premium to the price to cover their time.

Another option for credit card purchases is coinmama, not 100% sure if Ireland is covered, and again there's a considerable premium.

seklly · 29-12-2016 9:57am

I've only used Coinbase myself, I think they added a feature where you can buy instantly via card, might need to be verified with them though. Some alternatives I've seen are Paxful, Bitquick & Libertyx (I haven't used any of these myself though), you can also use LocalBitcoins to buy in person depending on your location.

Make sure to withdraw to your own wallet after purchase. Copay or Electrum are good options for desktop. Mycelium is quite popular on Android. Hardware wallets like Trezor, Ledger Nano S and KeepKey are recommended.

Dr.Winston O'Boogie · 29-12-2016 8:56pm

Lads complete noob question here, bought two bitcoin few years back off a mate. My recollection of how we did the transaction is vague to say the least, he was the expert and helped me along. Presumably we used a wallet. Changed laptops several times since, and all I have is the .dat file. Is it just a case of downloading a new wallet to new laptop and uploading the dat file to this? I recall him saying I could do this, for reasons to long to go into I can't ask him about it so not sure who to ask!

Tornando9 · 29-12-2016 9:28pm

You can create an account on https://blockchain.info/ and upload your .dat file.
The bitcoin blockchain is now over 100gb in size so downloading and synching a new wallet will take a day or two depending on your network speed.

Dr.Winston O'Boogie wrote: »

Lads complete noob question here, bought two bitcoin few years back off a mate. My recollection of how we did the transaction is vague to say the least, he was the expert and helped me along. Presumably we used a wallet. Changed laptops several times since, and all I have is the .dat file. Is it just a case of downloading a new wallet to new laptop and uploading the dat file to this? I recall him saying I could do this, for reasons to long to go into I can't ask him about it so not sure who to ask!

Tornando9 · 29-12-2016 9:33pm

I had a few bitcoin from when it dropped to $180 and i trade forex and stocks. I found a website that allows you to trade some selected forex pairs and commodities and you use bitcoin instead of cash. I use my forex trading rules and trade with risk management in place and stoploss.
The site is https://1broker.com/?c=en/action/r&i=2705 and signing up is free.
I have increased my btc holdings with ease. The site is a few years old and i never had any issues with their platform.
Any questions hit me up..

zulutango · 30-12-2016 2:13pm

Lads, I've a question regarding paper wallets.

If you have a cloud based wallet and you have a paper back up, are you protected from a hack of the cloud based wallet? Or is the paper wallet really only useful if you forget your log on, or your pc gets robbed?

pH · 30-12-2016 3:50pm

zulutango wrote: »

Lads, I've a question regarding paper wallets.

If you have a cloud based wallet and you have a paper back up, are you protected from a hack of the cloud based wallet? Or is the paper wallet really only useful if you forget your log on, or your pc gets robbed?

A standard bitcoin "wallet" is really just a public/private key pair, yes there are multi-sig wallets out there, but if you're not talking about multi-sig then if someone gets hold of the private key then they have access to the bitcoins. So if the cloud based wallet has access to the bitcoins then having a backup of it will not protect the bitcoins in any way.

That said, you can generate paper based wallet and transfer your bitcoins to it. This is simply just a printout of the key pair, but can be more sophisticated by incorporating QR codes or even another layer of encryption.

This is only really suitable for medium term storage, as to actually use the coins you'll have to "sweep" them back into an online wallet. Also the physical copies of these paper wallets are the only way to access the coins, if you lose the paper wallet somehow then the coins are irrevocably lost forever.

makeorbrake · 03-01-2017 5:04pm

I'd be curious to hear peoples views on where BTC is headed given the 125% increase in 2016. I've read a number of articles in the past week that suggest that BTC may reach $1500-$3000 equivalency over the coming year. Is that nonsense or is there logic behind it?

In the one sense, I've been very pleased with having (what is to me) a substantial sum invested in BTC since post-Mt.Gox devalutation. That said, back in early summer, I had intended on taking a punt - going all-in and converting my remaining savings (which are on account and earning absolutely nothing at the moment between the low ECB rate and criminal DIRT tax) to bitcoin. I got preoccupied and let it slide - and of course, BTC lifted considerably during that part of the year.

There are some potential pitfalls on the horizon. For one, it's still up in the air as to whether a forking may be necessary for BTC. Secondly, this solution from Intel is being punted to solve the scale issue => https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/the-teechan-solution-scaling-bitcoin-with-trusted-hardware-1482956340

Both of these are potential pitfalls for BTC. In the case of the second one, it could also be a pitfall if ignored by BTC but some other crypto currency takes it up. i.e. if people see the upside in it.

The main issue with that solution is that it rails completely against the essence of BTC - i.e. it's not implausible that there will be a back door - meaning the compromising of the currency. Otherwise, it may also be a threat if BTC decide against using it as a feature - and a competitor does (and it turns out to be a hit....the majority may not care about the backdoor element ).

patnor1011 · 04-01-2017 2:39pm

Is there any place in Ireland where I can walk in and sell bitcoin for cash? I know about ATM where you can buy bitcoin for cash but is there something similar where I can sell them and get cash?

makeorbrake · 04-01-2017 3:34pm

patnor1011 wrote: »

Is there any place in Ireland where I can walk in and sell bitcoin for cash? I know about ATM where you can buy bitcoin for cash but is there something similar where I can sell them and get cash?

I doubt that there is - or if there is, I doubt you'd get a reasonable rate. Why not use one of the exchanges. There's an irish based exchange - bitcove - or you have a plethora of european exchanges to choose from. However, you'd be receiving FIAT currency back into your account.

You could try localbitcoins.com - you *might* find someone that's prepared to meetup and exchange btc for cash.

Dohnjoe · 06-01-2017 12:26pm

makeorbrake wrote: »

I've read a number of articles in the past week that suggest that BTC may reach $1500-$3000 equivalency over the coming year. Is that nonsense or is there logic behind it?

No one has any clue. It might or it might not. I've must've read hundreds of predictions over the last 4 years and the vast majority have been wrong

makeorbrake · 06-01-2017 1:11pm

Dohnjoe wrote: »

No one has any clue. It might or it might not. I've must've read hundreds of predictions over the last 4 years and the vast majority have been wrong

Some of them have been wrong, some of them have been right. BTC is supposed to have died around 89 times by now....yet it still endures...

Dohnjoe · 09-01-2017 1:59pm

makeorbrake wrote: »

Some of them have been wrong, some of them have been right.

That's because they've been guesses

I've learnt in the past 4 years of BTC is that no one really has a clue. It's not like other commodities/bonds where information can be correlated, calculations made and price movements anticipated

It's survived a bubble and appears to have a baseline price, but if someone is coming here seeking validation for investment - the answer is still the same as it was 4 years ago - invest what you can only afford to lose

makeorbrake · 09-01-2017 4:05pm

Dohnjoe wrote: »

That's because they've been guesses

Yes, they are guesses. We have to bear in mind that in the grand scheme of things, bitcoin is a very young currency(? - question mark as some class it as a currency, some as a commodity just as gold has been utilised - and of course, there are other uses which remain undeveloped as such...for the most part....i.e. smart contracts, etc.).

The last major plummet happened in the aftermath of the Mt. Gox collapse (when Mt. Gox as an exchange dealt with some 70% of all transactions at the time - I'm open to correction on that figure but I think it was something like that). That's not got the same level of vulnerability now - exchanges can still be hacked (and there has been a very recent example) but BTC investors should be savvy enough to know not to leave their funds lying in an exchange at this point.

Bitcoin continues to come up against major problems but has continued to evolve and overcome those issues. Whether it can continue to overcome the roadblocks that stymie it remains to be seen. However, I'd really like to see it succeed. Theres a whole industry (and a highly profitable industry) that need to see it fail (or else it will simply destroy them).

I have been trying to seek validation as regards whether its still appropriate to buy in - but it seems like an impossible task. Ergo....I agree with Dohnjoe - can only justify investing what you can afford although part of me wonders if you really take a long term view (IF you have the confidence in the BTC project - that it will endure), then is there an argument to be made that any volatility you can ride out?.

That's just my mutterings - form your own opinion! I don't want anyone coming back to me having lost their life savings should BTC collapse completely and be superceeded by a different cryptocurrency!

DeSelby83 · 19-02-2017 4:40pm

BTC seems to be on the up and up. I had thought about investing in some last year but forgot about it, which I am starting to regret now but hey ho such is life. Anyway I am now going to dip my toe in the water and put away a small bit of expendable cash that I have at the end of the month. My next question is where to buy from. I have tried doing some research but there are so many good and bad stories about every exchange site out there. I am also a bit concerned about uploading my ID to these places for verification, how safe is it? So who would you recommend to use from experience?

makeorbrake · 20-02-2017 5:03pm

DeSelby83 wrote: »

BTC seems to be on the up and up. I had thought about investing in some last year but forgot about it, which I am starting to regret now but hey ho such is life. Anyway I am now going to dip my toe in the water and put away a small bit of expendable cash that I have at the end of the month. My next question is where to buy from. I have tried doing some research but there are so many good and bad stories about every exchange site out there. I am also a bit concerned about uploading my ID to these places for verification, how safe is it? So who would you recommend to use from experience?

I wouldn't be concerned too much about verification - all of these exchanges are licensed and have an obligation to put customers through the verification process - Know Your Customer & Anti-Money Laundering regulations.

As regards the exchanges themselves, do NOT hold any BTC in the wallet that comes with the account - use your own secure wallet.

As regards which exchange, for me it's whichever you can secure the best deal with - so perhaps register with a few - if the amounts are going to be significant. If not that significant, then I guess it doesn't matter all too much.

I have mixed feelings about the uplift in price over the past 12 months or so. Have a (relative to my personal finances) not inconsiderable sum in BTC - so for that have benefitted big time. However, 12 months ago I was contemplating buying a lot more - and procrastinated to a point where there was a major uplift in price - and I felt I'd missed the opportunity.

Still - it's a very volatile investment - so it could just as easily go the other way!

alb · 21-02-2017 9:51pm

alb wrote: »

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

Or if you look at Nov 2013 it's down from $1100.

I look forward to the day this unimportant argument no longer applies, hopefully within the next 3-6 months

Well, we're above $1100 now, right on schedule

makeorbrake wrote: »

I have mixed feelings about the uplift in price over the past 12 months or so. Have a (relative to my personal finances) not inconsiderable sum in BTC - so for that have benefitted big time.

Yeah me too, I had thought an extended rally after the halving was the most likely scenario and indeed I think it's most likely that we break through the ATH soon and continue up. Wouldn't be surprised if this bull market ends with a sharp violent upward spike as all the others have done (probably requires ETF approval, see below).
On the other hand it *feels* expensive and we've been on the up for a long time, so I can't help taking just a little profit, keeping some dry powder for any panic crashes.

In any case, the big event looming is the US SEC's decision on whether the amendments required for the Winklevoss COIN ETF to proceed are approved or not. The deadline for a rejection is apparently March 11th otherwise it's approved implicitly. It wouldn't be surprising for bitcoin to continue to rally until a decision on that, and then violently go one way or the other depending on the outcome. The bitmex.com exchange has a binary market on whether the ETF will be approached, currently trading at a 37% chance of success - seems a little high to me, I'm not so optimistic.

I'm disappointed I've little to talk about other than the price or ETF hype, the scaling debate continues and neither the latest software release by Core (with the segwit feature) nor the alternative Bitcoin Unlimited software have achieved anything close to a majority of miners yet. Circle are no longer providing buying/selling bitcoin as a service which is disappointing as it was great.

DeSelby83 · 26-02-2017 12:27am

Some good advice on here. Thanks for that. I think I'm going to invest a little more this week ahead of the march 11th decision. If it climbs then happy days,if not I'm sure it will rebound in time. I just feel that waiting for a time to buy is impossible to predict so averaging out over the year may be the way I approach this.

makeorbrake · 26-02-2017 3:23pm

DeSelby83 wrote: »

Some good advice on here. Thanks for that. I think I'm going to invest a little more this week ahead of the march 11th decision. If it climbs then happy days,if not I'm sure it will rebound in time. I just feel that waiting for a time to buy is impossible to predict so averaging out over the year may be the way I approach this.

Even in the last few days, there's been an uplift - currently trading at $1170 level - as speculation mounts ahead of the ETF decision...

pro_gnostic_8 · 28-02-2017 11:41pm

DeSelby83 wrote: »

I think I'm going to invest a little more this week ahead of the march 11th decision.

Have been a long-term holder of BTC, but last night I put up an offer price of €1,120 on Bitstamp which was taken and I have sold all of my coins.
I just don't feel comfortable holding any BTC in the run-up to the ETF. I honestly think the Winklevii will not succeed in getting approval from the SEC for their fund ...... even though the betting on the Bitmex market gives it a 48% chance. (This, of course, could be bettors/players hedging).
https://www.bitmex.com/app/trade/COIN_BH17

Whatever the outcome, I prefer to be divested until the SEC gives its verdict and wait until the dust settles. If, as I think is probable, that approval is denied there is no doubt that BTC's price will plunge. I don't want to appear brash but I'll call it as follows for the helluvit:
Approved:- BTC to climb to $1,600 with a floor of $1,400
Not Approved:- BTC to fall to $600.

BrokenArrows · 01-03-2017 10:41am

Is bitcoin spreading in having an actual use rather then purely a speculative currency?

I buy pretty much everything online (apart from groceries) but i dont recall ever seeing bitcoin as a payment option.

pro_gnostic_8 · 01-03-2017 11:36am

BrokenArrows wrote: »

I buy pretty much everything online (apart from groceries) but i dont recall ever seeing bitcoin as a payment option.

You can't buy anything online from the DarkWeb except WITH bicoin, BrokenArrows ! :P
But, yes, you are correct; the uptake of bitcoin acceptance has been somewhat disappointingly slow in the mainstream mercantile world. Even though Satoshi foresaw bitcoin as a payment mechanism and remittance system, I truly now think that it is largely used as a store of wealth and as a speculation.
I like to use bitcoin whenever I can because of its fast transfer and transactional ease, but I cannot use bitcoin to pay my utility bills, car insurance and tax, etc etc, for example. Until that changes, it will be of limited attraction to the mass populace. There is another drawback in that bitcoin payments are irreversible as against Paypal or CC's. Always use escrow.

At present, it is estimated that there are approx 100,000 merchants globally who accept bitcoin; but there is a long way to go.

alb · 01-03-2017 1:07pm

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Is bitcoin spreading in having an actual use rather then purely a speculative currency?

I buy pretty much everything online (apart from groceries) but i dont recall ever seeing bitcoin as a payment option.

I think why a lot of people have underestimated bitcoin so far is that they are too concerned with merchant adoption, and phrase it as you did as "actual use", which is to say that speculative investment and trading are not actual uses.

As pro_gnostic_8 says, merchant adoption (at least for legal merchants) has been disappointing and is probably decreasing rather than increasing, but this isn't necessarily a problem for bitcoin right now. Transaction levels are higher than ever and are frequently close to capacity, so any kind of wide scale merchant adoption right now would have been a disaster anyway.

Bitcoin will need a 'level 2' on top of it to support merchant transactions at any kind of mainstream level. It will be a number of years, if it happens.

Having said that, I think that Bitcoin can continue to grow by remaining what it is right now - a new competitor to gold as decentralised money.

(EDIT: for the record we're at $1225 now)

pro_gnostic_8 · 01-03-2017 3:46pm

alb wrote: »

(EDIT: for the record we're at $1225 now)

And it IS a record, I believe ............ a new All-Time High if memory serves me right. (I reckon, tho', this price level is just too high -- that bitcoin is overpriced. If we accept that the pro-traders have factored in a roughly $200 premium on the price on the strength of an approval for the ETF, then, this makes a bad time and a bad price at which to buy. My opinion only, of course).

That kind of wide scale merchant adoption right now would have been a disaster anyway.
Bitcoin will need a 'level 2' on top of it to support merchant transactions at any kind of mainstream level.

.
This is so very true. Scalability is currently a big issue with btc, and will only become moreso until Segwit or Lightening or something is agreed upon and integrated. Last week the mempool hit a figure of ~80,000 ( tx's waiting to be confirmed). Unless you pay a high fee nowadays, you could be waiting for anything up to two days. It needs sorting and quick -- and as alb says so correctly, a widespread adoption of global mercantile acceptance at present could well likely crash the network.

alb · 01-03-2017 4:17pm

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

And it IS a record, I believe ............ a new All-Time High if memory serves me right. (I reckon, tho', this price level is just too high -- that bitcoin is overpriced. If we accept that the pro-traders have factored in a roughly $200 premium on the price on the strength of an approval for the ETF, then, this makes a bad time and a bad price at which to buy. My opinion only, of course).

Yeah new all-time highs on many exchanges today. If you think the ETF approval is already priced in it is a bad time, if you think ETF approval will send it much higher... as in 1000s higher then it's a good time, but better to just wait until it's concrete one way or the other probably. I've no idea how to tell so I've taken some profit and I'm ready to go short in the short term if there's a rejection, but my long term holdings will remain, as the ETF isn't strictly required for bitcoin to continue what it's been doing the last couple of years.

zulutango · 01-03-2017 5:54pm

Whatever way you cut it, so long as the protocol is secure, so long as bitcoins are transferable and so long as there is a fixed supply, then the price will trend upwards at least until there is widescale adoption.

pro_gnostic_8 · 01-03-2017 6:20pm

I'm inclined to agree, Zulu, even allowing for the scaling problems and the increase in tx fees and transaction times.
I've been a longtime believer in the cryptocurrency and have ridden the spike since back in 2013 for substantial personal gain. So, trust me, it was very hard for me to sell them all two nights ago. They were like babies to me; it's a wrench to sell one's babies.

But the underlying logic of selling was indisputable -- to me at least. I am of the view that the ETF will not get approval and that consequently the bitcoin price will drop. I then intend to buy back at the subsequent lower rate.
Doesn't mean, tho', that I don't have faith in the future of bitcoin or its longterm prospects for again eventually graphing upwards.

Capt'n Midnight · 01-03-2017 7:09pm

Interesting that this in mainstream news now.

Also be interesting to see how this affects Bitcoin. If the Chinese govt is worried about wealth transfer out of China using bitcoins things could get interesting.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/pboc-is-going-digital-as-mobile-payments-boom-transforms-economy

After assembling a research team in 2014, the People’s Bank of China has done trial runs of its prototype cryptocurrency.

pro_gnostic_8 · 01-03-2017 7:30pm

Interesting, but a terrible, terrible innovation if the PBOC puts the idea into fullscale operation. I hope that the people will see it for what it really is, and that it is a complete failure.
Okay, it will use blockchain but that is about as far as the comparison with a true cryptocurrency like Bitcoin goes. There is no decentralisation, no miners, no Proof of Work, no block rewards, no independent network nodes. no anonymity.
"The PBOC creates cryptocurrency and transfers it to commercial banks when more liquidity is needed". Yeah just like fiat issued by a centralised authority but in a digitized form. It is that (governmental control) which we are trying to get away from. Disaster.

Thargor · 01-03-2017 8:09pm

alb wrote: »

Yeah new all-time highs on many exchanges today. If you think the ETF approval is already priced in it is a bad time, if you think ETF approval will send it much higher... as in 1000s higher then it's a good time, but better to just wait until it's concrete one way or the other probably. I've no idea how to tell so I've taken some profit and I'm ready to go short in the short term if there's a rejection, but my long term holdings will remain, as the ETF isn't strictly required for bitcoin to continue what it's been doing the last couple of years.

Can you short it?

alb · 01-03-2017 8:23pm

Thargor wrote: »

Can you short it?

Yes, there is leveraged shorting up to 5x on kraken.com which is a reasonably reputable US based exchange, which operates in Europe above board.

If you want to go full YOLO you can do up to 100x leveraged margin trading on bitmex.com, if you already have bitcoins (they only accept deposits and withdrawals in bitcoin). They are based in Hong Kong and I would consider the counterparty risk of depositing funds there much higher than kraken.

bitmex also have a binary market on whether the ETF will be approved or not.

makeorbrake · 01-03-2017 9:08pm

alb wrote: »

Yeah new all-time highs on many exchanges today. If you think the ETF approval is already priced in it is a bad time, if you think ETF approval will send it much higher... as in 1000s higher then it's a good time, but better to just wait until it's concrete one way or the other probably. I've no idea how to tell so I've taken some profit and I'm ready to go short in the short term if there's a rejection, but my long term holdings will remain, as the ETF isn't strictly required for bitcoin to continue what it's been doing the last couple of years.

The commentary online in the lead up to this has been to expect the ETF license to be turned down. Perhaps that view is changing and people have access to better information on the subject in the last couple of weeks.....or is it just unfocused speculation?

Either way, I'm quite happy to ride out the highs and lows. It's swings and roundabouts. If it bombs, I can justify buying in further (as I simply can't bring myself to that point right now). If it climbs on the back of a positive outcome, I'll be quids up as is.

Buying bitcoins

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