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Property Market 2016

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1…5657585961

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    #1802
    jay0109
    Registered Users Posts: 2,670 ✭✭✭jay0109


    Graham wrote: »
    I can't see the central bank going for that to be honest.

    Isn't there a vacant site levy due to start collection in 2019?

    I vaguely recall there are other tax breaks that discourage development until they expire in 2017/2018 but I can't for the life of me remember what they are.

    Yes, a whopping 3%. That'll teach 'em
    Meanwhile hose price inflation is running well ahead of this- as the Yanks would say "you do the math"!


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    #1803
    ThisRegard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27,834 ✭✭✭✭ThisRegard


    The developers also need to get money from the banks, it's not like they're all cash rich and just waiting for the prices to be right.


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    #1804
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    jay0109 wrote: »
    Yes, a whopping 3%. That'll teach 'em
    Meanwhile hose price inflation is running well ahead of this- as the Yanks would say "you do the math"!

    I think 3% is a sensible starting place, it could/should be enough to make any land-bank owners reconsider the economics of undeveloped sites which up until now have had almost zero ongoing costs.


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    #1805
    Gandalph
    Registered Users Posts: 1,792 ✭✭✭Gandalph


    Yourself isit wrote: »
    Housing always trends towards historic prices

    Source?


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    #1806
    Yourself isit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,257 ✭✭✭Yourself isit


    Gandalph wrote: »
    Source?

    Every single economics article on housing ever.


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    #1807
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    jay0109 wrote: »
    Yes, a whopping 3%. That'll teach 'em
    Meanwhile hose price inflation is running well ahead of this- as the Yanks would say "you do the math"!

    Do we know 3% of what? (estimated value of the site? If yes who will estimate the value?)


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    #1808
    jay0109
    Registered Users Posts: 2,670 ✭✭✭jay0109


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Do we know 3% of what? (estimated value of the site? If yes who will estimate the value?)

    Market value of the land. I presume EA's/Valuers will do the 'work' and collect the fees...always win/win for those guys


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    #1809
    q85dw7osi4lebg
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭q85dw7osi4lebg


    jay0109 wrote: »
    Market value of the land. I presume EA's/Valuers will do the 'work' and collect the fees...always win/win for those guys

    If it's "always win/win" we should all have a go at that career :)

    It's probably best to have them value the sites than the owners!


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    #1810
    Earleybird
    Registered Users Posts: 271 ✭✭Earleybird


    jay0109 wrote: »
    Market value of the land. I presume EA's/Valuers will do the 'work' and collect the fees...always win/win for those guys

    Well who would you like to do the work!? You're full of negativity but very few ideas or credible arguments. Let's hear some bright ideas off you Jay...


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    #1811
    jay0109
    Registered Users Posts: 2,670 ✭✭✭jay0109


    Of course they're going to do the work, I was just being sarcastic.
    A lot of folk on here very defensive of VI's in the property industry or moves by Govt/CB to relax rules/increase the price of housing.

    Personally, I'd bring in that vacant site tax next year. I'd levy it at 10%. They either start to build or sell off their land banks to someone who will.
    I'd cut out half the red tape involved in housing- as DJT says, 1 new regulation means 2 old ones have to go.
    I'd stop commissioning reports. Fig leafs for Govt Ministers to make it look like they're doing something.
    I'd raise the height in Dub CC for apartment complexes, especially down the docklands.
    I'd do my best to get big European building firms into the Irish market. Why are we stuck with the same few developers before and after the bust?
    That'd be a nice start, in my humble opinion of course


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    #1812
    q85dw7osi4lebg
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭q85dw7osi4lebg


    The problem is even if they have land banks and do want to build, zoning and planning issues prevent it.

    Until these issues are sorted, lobbing a 3% tax on holds will be seen as a threat, and even less development will take place.


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    #1813
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    3% seems like a joke alright. I mean all the landowners have to do is continue not developing or selling. Central bank will continue to loosen rules. Guess what happens? 5% minimum it should have been ...


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    #1814
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Hard to see why this is controversial. The construction industry lobbyists clearly said they needed higher house prices to build more supply, which is a bit like throwing gasoline on a fire to encourage the fire department. It was the reason for the FTB tax rebate, which is why it is for new builds only.
    there are lots of reasons they can't or won't build at the moment. I had a different solution, allow cheaper to build apartments. More can afford to buy and margins increase for builder. No more debt!!! David Ehrlich the head of Irish reit has said it and I have said it till I'm blue in the face!!! Many want to live alone, but can't justify it for cost of current regulations. Give many of us what we want and it sorts out the affordability issue and the margin issue for builders!!! I am in the uk a lot. They allow less strict standards. From a far better run country, I don't need our gob****es on 100k+ who are making decisions (and have probably never lived in an apartment) to dictate to me that I need an over the top property and hang myself in debt for at least 300k for a 1 bed for the privilege ...


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    #1815
    Yourself isit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,257 ✭✭✭Yourself isit


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    there are lots of reasons they can't or won't build at the moment. I had a different solution, allow cheaper to build apartments. More can afford to buy and margins increase for builder. No more debt!!! David Ehrlich the head of Irish reit has said it and I have said it till I'm blue in the face!!! Many want to live alone, but can't justify it for cost of current regulations. Give many of us what we want and it sorts out the affordability issue and the margin issue for builders!!! I am in the uk a lot. They allow less strict standards. From a far better run country, I don't need our gob****es on 100k+ who are making decisions (and have probably never lived in an apartment) to dictate to me that I need an over the top property and hang myself in debt for at least 300k for a 1 bed for the privilege ...

    Some of that is true. In particular dual aspect is ridiculous as are the existing size requirements. But what will probably happen if we make builds cheaper is price rises and margin increases. Like the boom.


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    #1816
    Gandalph
    Registered Users Posts: 1,792 ✭✭✭Gandalph


    Yourself isit wrote: »
    Every single economics article on housing ever.

    Yep ok, just show me one that shows historical prices correlating with even older historical prices, I'd like to know this 'trend' you speak of.


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    #1817
    Yourself isit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,257 ✭✭✭Yourself isit


    Gandalph wrote: »
    Yep ok, just show me one that shows historical prices correlating with even older historical prices, I'd like to know this 'trend' you speak of.

    At the moment I can't link. However I wouldn't anyway. You're asking the equivalent of proof that the Earth is not flat. That the sun is at the centre of the solar system.

    It's not that hard to Google historical house prices and don't please make the mistake of not correcting to inflation (or income). There are hundreds of years of data for the US — which has had a longer mass house ownership than anywhere. The trend always falls back after a bubble in price increase.

    And why do I feel like it's 2007 again?


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    #1818
    ligerdub
    Registered Users Posts: 2,584 ✭✭✭ligerdub


    To be fair if you wait long enough you'll eventually always be right :-)


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    #1819
    MintyMagnum
    Registered Users Posts: 474 ✭✭MintyMagnum


    You know with new builds. I've been told the asking is the asking price. Are they ever haggled down? Say cash buyer?


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    #1820
    Michael D Not Higgins
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 7,223 Mod ✭✭✭✭Michael D Not Higgins


    MintyMagnum wrote: »
    You know with new builds. I've been told the asking is the asking price. Are they ever haggled down? Say cash buyer?

    Very unlikely in this market, there's waiting lists of people registered with the developers who want the place if you don't want to pay full price.


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    #1821
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,906 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Yourself isit wrote: »
    At the moment I can't link. However I wouldn't anyway. You're asking the equivalent of proof that the Earth is not flat. That the sun is at the centre of the solar system.

    It's not that hard to Google historical house prices and don't please make the mistake of not correcting to inflation (or income). There are hundreds of years of data for the US — which has had a longer mass house ownership than anywhere. The trend always falls back after a bubble in price increase.

    And why do I feel like it's 2007 again?

    However, you can be born, get an education, get a partner, have kids, become a grandparent and then die before you see that bubble burst.


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    #1822
    Yourself isit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,257 ✭✭✭Yourself isit


    cnocbui wrote: »
    However, you can be born, get an education, get a partner, have kids, become a grandparent and then die before you see that bubble burst.

    No they generally last a few years at most. A decade would be extreme. Although London is changing that logic (but remember we are in a strange era of extremely low interest rates).

    As I said this is the logic of 2006.


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    #1823
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Yourself isit wrote: »
    No they generally last a few years at most. A decade would be extreme. Although London is changing that logic (but remember we are in a strange era of extremely low interest rates).

    As I said this is the logic of 2006.

    You're correct that it is cyclical- however, a decade would not be extreme- 12 to 15 years is the historical norm (the Economist and other publications look at this not infrequently).


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    #1824
    REFLINE1
    Registered Users Posts: 380 ✭✭REFLINE1


    still clickbait? not 98fm this time


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    #1825
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,906 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Yourself isit wrote: »
    No they generally last a few years at most. A decade would be extreme. Although London is changing that logic (but remember we are in a strange era of extremely low interest rates).

    As I said this is the logic of 2006.

    How many houses/properties do you have direct experience with buying and selling?

    My tally is 5. I have never sold a property for less than it's purchase price + inflation + appreciation.

    Ireland has been a special case which is slowly correcting. I'm still eagerly waiting for those bubbles to burst in Australia and New Zealand, but they are just not cooperating.


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    #1826
    ligerdub
    Registered Users Posts: 2,584 ✭✭✭ligerdub


    When interest rates start going up.....watch out.


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    #1827
    Yourself isit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,257 ✭✭✭Yourself isit


    cnocbui wrote: »
    How many houses/properties do you have direct experience with buying and selling?

    My tally is 5. I have never sold a property for less than it's purchase price + inflation + appreciation.

    Ireland has been a special case which is slowly correcting. I'm still eagerly waiting for those bubbles to burst in Australia and New Zealand, but they are just not cooperating.

    Two. And one certainly didn't appreciate. Not that it matters because your or my story about house buying would be anecdotes not statistics. if housing always appreciated above (wage) inflation it would have gotten to be unaffordable for most people long long ago. I did say there is more than 100 years of data in the US on this. I'll post links here when I get the rights.

    Also house prices did collapse across the board in 2008, in particular in the US. Almost sunk the world economy. You might have missed that.

    At the moment we have historically low interest rates, so the bubbles are longer lasting than normal. However fall they will because a mass housing market clearly is dependent on the wages of the people buying the housing and the credit available to them.


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    #1828
    ThisRegard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27,834 ✭✭✭✭ThisRegard


    ligerdub wrote: »
    When interest rates start going up.....watch out.

    Banks are factoring in an up to 2% interest rate rise in their stress tests on mortgage applications


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    #1829
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    ThisRegard wrote: »
    Banks are factoring in an up to 2% interest rate rise in their stress tests on mortgage applications

    2%?
    Really?
    Is that it?
    Rates are going up in the US in December- and while the EU and Japan still have effective negative rates- its accepted that this has not worked, and rates are going to increase- its simply a matter of when.

    Its also the case that 'normalisation' of interest rates implies rates of between 4 and 4.5%......... It could be a protracted period before we get there- but thats what we're looking at- ECB overnight rates of 4-4.5%- i.e. its foreseeable that we will eventually have a 4% increase on current levels- not the 2% that is being factored into calculations. It might take us 10-12-15 or even 20 years to get back here- but that is what we're eventually looking at............


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    #1830
    ThisRegard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27,834 ✭✭✭✭ThisRegard


    I don't know if that's it, but I know it's what was factored on one application for less than an 80% mortgage. I think 2% is actually on the lower end of the spectrum.

    If you're worried about rates getting that high in 20 years time a lot of mortgages will be closed by then, or coming to the end of their life anyway.


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    #1831
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,526 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The_Conductor wrote:
    2%? Really? Is that it? Rates are going up in the US in December- and while the EU and Japan still have effective negative rates- its accepted that this has not worked, and rates are going to increase- its simply a matter of when.


    Imagine what would happen rates in Ireland if the eu collapsed coupled with our massive private and public debt.

    You thought 2008 was bad. You'll see the true meaning of austerity if that happens

    Interesting election in France next year and Germany soon after.


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