Property Market 2016

Earleybird

jay0109 wrote: »

House prices keep going higher.
Desperate people resort to underhand measures to get the mortgages they need.
Banks go to war with each other to get new business.
Interest rates inevitably go higher.
Govt influences the CB to change it's rules, the banks to relax their rules...especially coming up to election time.
Wallop

And I'm not even bringing the impact of Brexit into this or what effect Trump will have on US multi-nationals here.

You're clearly detached from reality my friend. You should get someone to review your posts going forward.

"Desperate people resort to underhand measures"... I won't even bother to address this.

The banks have already started to get each others business. Do you think they offer 2% and lower mortgage rates from the goodness of their hearts.

In what world would this drive up rates though!?!
Perhaps you mean ECB rates will go up. Yes correct, well done, they will at some stage. I'm not sure if you've seen how Europe is performing at present and while ECB continues to struggle to hit EU inflationary targets it could be a while yet.

The CBI are independent of the government (I feel I need to highlight this) and have not been so prone to government lobbying recently. Why would this change!?

I am interested to hear what you think Brexit and Trump impacts will do though, please enlighten...

I hope the Wallop wasn't the sound of a mike drop from you, but if it was perhaps leave it where it is.

jay0109

Earleybird wrote: »

You're clearly detached from reality my friend. You should get someone to review your posts going forward.

"Desperate people resort to underhand measures"... I won't even bother to address this.

The banks have already started to get each others business. Do you think they offer 2% and lower mortgage rates from the goodness of their hearts.

In what world would this drive up rates though!?!
Perhaps you mean ECB rates will go up. Yes correct, well done, they will at some stage. I'm not sure if you've seen how Europe is performing at present and while ECB continues to struggle to hit EU inflationary targets it could be a while yet.

The CBI are independent of the government (I feel I need to highlight this) and have not been so prone to government lobbying recently. Why would this change!?

I am interested to hear what you think Brexit and Trump impacts will do though, please enlighten...

I hope the Wallop wasn't the sound of a mike drop from you, but if it was perhaps leave it where it is.

I'm detached from reality.

The CBI are independent of Govt!!!
Brexit and Trump will have no impact!!!
ECB rates are'nt going up any time soon so nothing to see here. Move on!
And did we not have a lot of shenanigans with people having overtime counted as salary, passing parents loans off as their own savings etc in the Tiger days

I just hope that a lot of the cheerleaders here stick around after the crash happens...don't go disappearing, changing user names etc.
It will be interesting to get all your takes on it then

Michael D Not Higgins

jay0109 wrote: »

The fact that we may hit 2007 prices less than 15 later and you think people shouldn't make a connection with the 2!!!!

Of course we'll eventually hit them again, but so soon???
And in a time frame where we supposedly have had practically no official inflation, where wages have stood still/fallen...

But... they're not connected. The reason for the price is completely different in both instances.

People in 2007 were getting 5x LTI mortgages. They can't get the same credit now and can't push prices that high. The higher earners are pushing the prices higher and the lower earners can't compete on bidding.

Earleybird

jay0109 wrote: »

I'm detached from reality.

The CBI are independent of Govt!!!
Brexit and Trump will have no impact!!!
ECB rates are'nt going up any time soon so nothing to see here. Move on!
And did we not have a lot of shenanigans with people having overtime counted as salary, passing parents loans off as their own savings etc in the Tiger days

I just hope that a lot of the cheerleaders here stick around after the crash happens...don't go disappearing, changing user names etc.
It will be interesting to get all your takes on it then

I will end my argument now. <mod snip>
You have not put forward any credible points as to why we could be heading for a downturn nor do you seem to grasp basic concepts of past versus present.
In short you are the sort of person that gets Trump elected, and UK out of Europe. You have a few soundbites rocking around in your head and without being able to think for yourself or educate yourself you shout foul. Do some homework and perhaps we'll talk again. Goodbye

Michael D Not Higgins

I know this is an emotional issue for people. But the next person to bait or attack a poster will get a ban

goz83

I do hope I am wrong about my views, but some people seem to think that the market will balance out and we won't see another recession in the foreseeable future. It wouldn't take much to tip the scales. Increasing the LTI would be a big one, as would interest rate hikes. Even a 1% increase would would have a negative impact, forcing more people into difficulty and/or default. Unless the CB is willing to wait about 10 years to raise the interest rates, I reckon the pain will be seen all over again.

jay0109

Lol - if you disagree with the 'fundamentals are sound' side of the house, your a Brexitier or Trump supporter!
Good argument!

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
If some people here believe the Banks have changed their ways and are now good concerned citizens, who am I to try and change your mind.
If you cannot see yesterday's announcement by the CBI or the Govt's introduction of a 'help to buy' scheme last Oct...while last week the CSO release stats showing prices rising at their fastest in years...and Davys predicting 5 to 7% growth for the next 3 years, as part of something which is going to snowball over the coming years, then so be it. Already today I have heard a few commentators (David Hall :mad:) on the radio pushing the agenda for some rule changes for 2nd time buyers.
IMO, it's the start of something. But thats just my opinion. No need to attack someone for having an opinion on something as non life threatening as house prices.

And I come at this from a vested interest point of view as someone who bought a family home this year and who is also a landlord. High house prices are bad for everyone except Developers.

Anyways, thats my lot. Adieu

Graham

jay0109 wrote: »

If you cannot see yesterday's announcement by the CBI or the Govt's introduction of a 'help to buy' scheme last Oct

As long as the LTI ratios don't change significantly neither of these schemes should significantly drive up prices. They are perhaps bringing forward demand that wouldn't have appeared for another year or two

jay0109 wrote: »

and Davys predicting 5 to 7% growth for the next 3 years, as part of something which is going to snowball over the coming years, then so be it.

5-7% growth in what?

jay0109 wrote: »

someone who bought a family this year

Interesting approach, were they a cash purchase or are they eligible for some new kind of asset financing?

jay0109

Graham wrote: »

As long as the LTI ratios don't change significantly neither of these schemes should significantly drive up prices. They are perhaps bringing forward demand that wouldn't have appeared for another year or two



5-7% growth in what?


Interesting approach, were they a cash purchase or are they eligible for some new kind of asset financing?

5-7% growth per annum in house prices over the next 3 years. It was part of their economic analysis issued about 2 weeks ago.

And lets see how long LTI ratios hold- here's hoping they don't change but this is Ireland.

My family is entirely a cash purchase. With very little return other than grief and grey hair :P

Graham

jay0109 wrote: »

5-7% growth per annum in house prices over the next 3 years. It was part of their economic analysis issued about 2 weeks ago.

Sounds fairly reasonable while supply/demand are so mismatched, I wouldn't say it's indicative of a bubble which as another poster pointed out is usually around an abundance of fairly easy credit.

jay0109 wrote: »

And lets see how long LTI ratios hold- here's hoping they don't change but this is Ireland.

Here's hoping.

jay0109 wrote: »

My family is entirely a cash purchase. With very little return other than grief and grey hair :P

Take comfort in the thought that the value of property is likely to increase at a slower rate than ongoing costs of that particular class of assets. :pac:

Muff Richardson

jay0109 wrote: »

The CBI are independent of Govt!!!

they most certainly are not.

Villa05

Michael D Not Higgins wrote:

Prices are high because of lack of supply not because of a bubble. There's no bubble to burst just pent up demand.

There are more factors that create bubbles other than availability of credit. Lack of supply is one of the major ones.

It seems that many of the posters here do not understand this

Ayuntamiento

I was recently bidding on a property that eventually went 100k over asking price...100k! I was actually starting to question my own sanity at the end of the bidding process. Initially I was so upset on losing out but now I look back and realize that the other bidder has just ended up with a 2 bed apt that's cost them almost 400k.
The particular area/market i'm in has a really overheated feel to it. And that's before the new CB rules in January.. Even as a FTB I feel this is a mistake. Any sanity that remained in the market is now out the window.

jay0109

Muff Richardson wrote: »

they most certainly are not.

Thats what I've been saying. Other on here think they are 'independent'

Earleybird

jay0109 wrote: »

Thats what I've been saying. Other on here think they are 'independent'

They are independent. Fact. Can't make that any clearer.

athtrasna

Ayuntamiento wrote: »

I was recently bidding on a property that eventually went 100k over asking price...100k! I was actually starting to question my own sanity at the end of the bidding process. Initially I was so upset on losing out but now I look back and realize that the other bidder has just ended up with a 2 bed apt that's cost them almost 400k.
The particular area/market i'm in has a really overheated feel to it. And that's before the new CB rules in January.. Even as a FTB I feel this is a mistake. Any sanity that remained in the market is now out the window.

In the last boom we pulled out on bidding on a property that went for 180K over asking price!

Alkers

athtrasna wrote:

In the last boom we pulled out on bidding on a property that went for 180K over asking price!

It can be a tactic to set the asking price low to attract interest and create a bidding war. Recent example of a property in kimmage put on the market at 310 I think when other houses nearby had sold for 350. It ended up going in excess of 450! The %age over asking price is more relevant and everything we've seen in Dublin has been getting into the +10% - +25% range

dubrov

Earleybird wrote:

They are independent. Fact. Can't make that any clearer.

Maybe you should take a look at how the cbi governor is appointed

Earleybird

dubrov wrote: »

Maybe you should take a look at how the cbi governor is appointed

Wow well done you googled them did you. What else did you find out?

Yourself isit

Graham wrote: »

Sounds fairly reasonable while supply/demand are so mismatched, I wouldn't say it's indicative of a bubble which as another poster pointed out is usually around an abundance of fairly easy credit.



Here's hoping.



Take comfort in the thought that the value of property is likely to increase at a slower rate than ongoing costs of that particular class of assets. :pac:

Bubbles don't have to depend on credit. In any case at a time when housing is too expensive for most why is it deliberate policy to reinflate?

Yourself isit

Gandalph wrote: »

This is something I hear all too regularly.

What do historical prices have to do with future prices?

When (not if) we hit 2007 price levels I wouldn't be surprised if there was a little burp in the market because of the people most susceptible to fear-mongering.

Housing always trends towards historic prices i.e. Multiple of incomes. Of course there's been one step change — more dual income families — nevertheless property does fall when over priced.

Because the construction industry threw a fit and went on strike we are now back in the property appreciation game. Let's hope the next bailout isn't as expensive.

Graham

Yourself isit wrote: »

Because the construction industry threw a fit and went on strike we are now back in the property appreciation game.

You think the construction industry is refusing to undertake profitable activity to make a point instead of jumping at the opportunity to make money?

Yourself isit

Graham wrote: »

You think the construction industry is refusing to undertake profitable activity to make a point instead of jumping at the opportunity to make money?

Yes. There's empty zoned land right across from me that emphasises the point.

Graham

Yourself isit wrote: »

Yes. There's empty zoned land right across from me that emphasises the point.

do you not think there maybe other reasons it's not a construction site?

Yourself isit

Graham wrote: »

do you not think there maybe other reasons it's not a construction site?

The developer has had planning permission for years. Then the bust. It's shovel ready. The plans are for 40 apartments. Makes sense to sell at 300-400k rather than the 250k he would have got a few years ago.

Hard to see why this is controversial. The construction industry lobbyists clearly said they needed higher house prices to build more supply, which is a bit like throwing gasoline on a fire to encourage the fire department. It was the reason for the FTB tax rebate, which is why it is for new builds only.

I can't link but even today the AIB CEO welcomed the latest CB rules which he said would increase prices and encourage more supply.

Using demand side economic tools to encourage supply is insane of course but this country is mad.

Yourself isit

From the indo.

The Central Bank's revised mortgage deposit rules will help to remove blockages in the market and are likely to lead to some necessary short-term price rises for first-time buyers, AIB's chief executive said today

Chomping at the bit they are. 100%, 40 year mortgages and 5x LTI can only be a year away. To encourage supply.

Graham

Yourself isit wrote: »

Chomping at the bit they are. 100%, 40 year mortgages and 5x LTI can only be a year away. To encourage supply.

I can't see the central bank going for that to be honest.

Isn't there a vacant site levy due to start collection in 2019?

I vaguely recall there are other tax breaks that discourage development until they expire in 2017/2018 but I can't for the life of me remember what they are.

Yourself isit

Graham wrote: »

I can't see the central bank going for that to be honest.

Isn't there a vacant site levy due to start collection in 2019?

I vaguely recall there are other tax breaks that discourage development until they expire in 2017/2018 but I can't for the life of me remember what they are.

I know. Slightly tongue in cheek there.

However note how the bank managers are really interested in increasing house prices. How do increased house prices benefit the FTB? They don't of course. And increasing supply will only benefit buyers if it reduces prices eventually but clearly there's a floor where supply dries up again at a price level higher than now, a price level most buyers can't afford. Now.

Graham

What would you propose, what levers can be pulled to satisfy some really conflicting goals?

How do you:
Encourage development
Reduce finance/mortgage costs
Help first time buyers
Reduce prices for buyers
Increase values for those in negative equity
Repossess houses without making people homeless
Finance developments without been seen to assist the big bad developers
Reduce construction costs
Reduce development levies without canibalising financing for new local infrastructure
Stimulate use of undeveloped land
Increase supply of rental properties without being seen to assist landlords
Do all of the above without driving demand further

athtrasna

A reminder that this is a property market thread, not politics nor to do with governance of the central bank or any other institution.

Thanks