Property Market 2016

riclad

The problem is people bought starter homes in the boom, cos they believed
the media ,prices will increase forever, everyone in ireland is some type of financial genius/investor .
So they bought a 1bed apartment for 200k plus, its a starter,
in 5 years time i can buy a small house .
No one told them prices might fall apart from david mcwilliams .
no one expected free money ,they thought in 10 years time i,ll buy a house,settle down etc sure
Theres no way my apartment could fall in value .
They were naive or stupid, or believed the mediocre advice they recieved .
maybe they wanted to live in area x, they could not buy a 300k house in area x.
So they just bought the first apartment they could get loan on.
Now they are stuck in negative equity ,
they can rent it out or stay they until the mortgage is reduced
below negative equity levels .
if you want to accuse someone of being greedy accuse the civil servants
and greedy bankers who screwed the economy in the boom,looking for a bonus ,
And are now retired on large pensions .

Monife

riclad wrote: »

The problem is people bought starter homes in the boom, cos they believed
the media ,prices will increase forever, everyone in ireland is some type of financial genius/investor .
So they bought a 1bed apartment for 200k plus, its a starter,
in 5 years time i can buy a small house .
No one told them prices might fall apart from david mcwilliams .
no one expected free money ,they thought in 10 years time i,ll buy a house,settle down etc sure
Theres no way my apartment could fall in value .
They were naive or stupid, or believed the mediocre advice they recieved .
maybe they wanted to live in area x, they could not buy a 300k house in area x.
So they just bought the first apartment they could get loan on.
Now they are stuck in negative equity ,
they can rent it out or stay they until the mortgage is reduced
below negative equity levels .
if you want to accuse someone of being greedy accuse the civil servants
and greedy bankers who screwed the economy in the boom,looking for a bonus ,
And are now retired on large pensions .

Slightly OT but so are you - Civil Servants don't get and have never got bonuses. And they were subjected to massive cuts in pay and decreases in conditions during the recession to which only €1,000 is being given back in September 2017!

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Monife

draiochtanois wrote: »

Wrong.

Senior civil servants were paid bonuses

"The payments, worth an average 10pc of wages, were terminated five years ago due to the economic crisis.

They were made to assistant secretaries and deputy secretaries in the civil service and related grades in the wider public service."

Not entirely wrong, senior civil servants are in the minority. I had no idea about that either. The poster used a sweeping generalisation so felt the need to respond.

The_Conductor

Back on topic folks- if you want to discuss public sector salaries etc- take it elsewhere please.

allibastor

Back to the actual market.

I have noticed houses in South Kildare and Laois that are 200K and below are flying off the shelves.
Generally doing a drive about there is a huge amount of sale agreed signs up

AsianDub

Any predictions on how the next few months will go? Brexit, Trump, supply etc..

whiskeyman

AsianDub wrote: »

Any predictions on how the next few months will go? Brexit, Trump, supply etc..

Supply isn't going to change within the next few months, so I don't see much of a change.

Brexit / Trump will only impact in the medium to long run I reckon.

Villa05

whiskeyman wrote:

Brexit / Trump will only impact in the medium to long run I reckon.

Should impact sentiment. Scary times for the irish economy. 6 eu elections next year including France.

Definitely time to keep your head and don't be swayed by the usual cheerleaders

willbeuptuesday

The review of the CB rules are just out, it's back to 10% deposit for all first time buyers. In the short term this will have a huge effect as it brings a lot more bidders to the market who were being held back by the rules to date but given time it will level itself out. I can see a double digit rise in house prices for next 2 to 3 years I'm not so sure that this is a good thing because history has taught us that this is unsustainable. Am
I way off the mark here?

Bob24

willbeuptuesday wrote: »

The review of the CB rules are just out, it's back to 10% deposit for all first time buyers. In the short term this will have a huge effect as it brings a lot more bidders to the market who were being held back by the rules to date but given time it will level itself out. I can see a double digit rise in house prices for next 2 to 3 years I'm not so sure that this is a good thing because history has taught us that this is unsustainable. Am
I way off the mark here?

So yes ... if anyone was still wondering, Ireland never learns.

jay0109

And the banks exception ceiling gone to 20% from 15%.

Madness. In a house market already rising by 7% nationally, this is just more fuel on the fire (following on from the Govt's 'help to buy' budget measures).
This will speed up the next crash which is surely on the way

SarahMollie

jay0109 wrote: »

And the banks exception ceiling gone to 20% from 15%.

Madness. In a house market already rising by 7% nationally, this is just more fuel on the fire (following on from the Govt's 'help to buy' budget measures).
This will speed up the next crash which is surely on the way

Not quite.

The exceptions are now 5% for FTB loanbook (ie to breach the 90%) requirement and then 20% of the loanbook for everyone else.

jay0109

And was it not a straight 15% of the loanbook before today?

Wesser

Am worried now that house prices will go up and I will never be able to buy a house. Feeling overwhelmed and anxious and hopeless. ;(

Oh well. Get up and dust self off and keep going.

6541

This is absolute rubbish. I feel sorry for people who have to buy now as I see profiteering coming back into an already overheating market. If there is any way that you can hold out and not buy then do. This is going to end in tears again.

cnocbui

I have to say I am very happy to see the prices in the midlands have supposedly increased 15%. A sellers point of view, of course.

Kai123

Wesser wrote: »

Am worried now that house prices will go up and I will never be able to buy a house. Feeling overwhelmed and anxious and hopeless. ;(

Oh well. Get up and dust self off and keep going.

If it carries on I will end up moving aboard with a massive deposit to hand. Its insane to save like mad to try and get an affordable mortgage to escape the massive rent.

Alkers

I can't see it having THAT much an impact. E.g. we are mortgage approved based on the old deposit amounts. If we were to reduce to a 10% deposit as will only be required next year, as out LTI ratio is still fixed, we can actually afford less of a purchase price unless we use our extra savings.
This may bring 1st time buyers into the market quicker but they'll have less money than if the old rules stayed.

ligerdub

Wesser wrote: »

Am worried now that house prices will go up and I will never be able to buy a house. Feeling overwhelmed and anxious and hopeless. ;(

Oh well. Get up and dust self off and keep going.

Likewise. It's tough going.

draiochtanois

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draiochtanois

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Indeed.

There's more pro than con here IMO.

SarahMollie

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

We hope.

I'm still very wary of seeking to address a supply side issue with demand side measures.

Idbatterim

Ok. So what happens when prices increase another good chunk. But wage inflation is very low, do they then start messing with the X salary you can borrow... My opinion is, they needed to allow construction of cheaper units. Of course they have gone the old comfortable way. Beneficial lot everyone except those looking to buy. EA, developers, government, the press etc all benefit ...

Bob24

Idbatterim wrote: »

Ok. So what happens when prices increase another good chunk. But wage inflation is very low, do they then start messing with the X salary you can borrow... My opinion is, they needed to allow construction of cheaper units. Of course they have gone the old comfortable way. Beneficial lot everyone except those looking to buy. EA, developers, government, the press etc all benefit ...

One aspect of the answer was actually pre-empted by McWilliams a few days ago: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/11/21/the-public-sector-strikes-are-really-about-housing

goz83

Wesser wrote: »

Am worried now that house prices will go up and I will never be able to buy a house. Feeling overwhelmed and anxious and hopeless. ;(

Oh well. Get up and dust self off and keep going.

I had the same worry back in 2007/8. I had the additional pressure of living with my inlaws and I had 2 kids. I knew there was a crash coming, but I thought it would be another couple of years before it happened. I needed a home for my family and we bought at the peak. I have no regrets about doing it, but I inevitably felt a bit burnt when the property value halved in 2 years.

I personally think that there will be another crash in 2017. If I was a FTB, I would be saving as much as possible to get myself into a position to buy after the crash, but you're talking 2-3 years before the banks will give a mortgage while they are again being bailed out.

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Rent will continue to be crazy for some time and these CB changed will have almost zero effect on the rental market, which is oversubscribed. All these changes are going to do is inflate prices, while allowing a few people to buy in the short term. More new houses will be built, meaning more construction jobs, which will take another hit in the next recession.

q85dw7osi4lebg

goz83 wrote: »

I personally think that there will be another crash in 2017. If I was a FTB, I would be saving as much as possible to get myself into a position to buy after the crash, but you're talking 2-3 years before the banks will give a mortgage while they are again being bailed out.

What do you think will cause the crash this time, since it won't be caused by the same thing which caused the last one?

Idbatterim

The fact that middle-ranking public sector workers can’t, or at least don’t feel that they can, afford to live in this country is at the root of the latest industrial unrest

That's from the McWilliams article. That statement is a bit of a generalisation. Maybe it's time to start basing pay, on where you live. The property prices outside of Dublin are laughable compared to inside Dublin. And many public servants own their own homes or would have tiny mortgages..

Michael D Not Higgins

SarahMollie wrote: »

We hope.

I'm still very wary of seeking to address a supply side issue with demand side measures.

Agreed, although the help to buy is a supply measure dressed up as a demand one. It was designed to make it more palatable. It's very difficult for the government to encourage building without looking like an FF clone giving the builders backhanders.

Idbatterim

Khari Panicky Skunk wrote: »

What do you think will cause the crash this time, since it won't be caused by the same thing which caused the last one?

are you entirely dismissing the notion of another crash? From next year The ecb is to stop buying bonds for a pittance to the best if my knowledge. Think we are back to the markets then , 200,000,000,000 in debt this time. All it takes us for the sheeple to be spooked again, reign in spending domestically, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. not even factoring in potential outside factors and we could be up ****s creek again!