2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Sofa Spud · 08-11-2016 08:46PM

gosplan wrote: »

I think the fact that they pretty much ALL need to be wrong for Trump to get in is huge.

If not all, then maybe 6/8.

Something seriously wrong with the model if 3/4 of those states flip at this stage.

Agreed, but it really is way too early - you could have a situation where even at 90% observed it could still swing the opposite way, depending on the precincts, especially as a lot of the swing states have sizeable variances between rural and urban voters.

It's fun to keep us occupied until after midnight, but it really is coated in a lot of salt. You would hope that PA and NH are safe, but for Ohio to come into play is significant - it went for Obama both times but has been trending Trump for quite a while.

K-9 · 08-11-2016 08:51PM

Ohio has been consistently Trump though. Pennsylvania could be key, he takes that and he's in with a real chance.

TheDoctor · 08-11-2016 09:03PM

All about Florida, lose that and it's done

InTheTrees · 08-11-2016 09:09PM

Everyone's been talking about the "secret" trump voters. I think there's going to be a sizable turnout of "secret" Hillary voters.

Sofa Spud · 08-11-2016 09:22PM

K-9 wrote: »

Ohio has been consistently Trump though. Pennsylvania could be key, he takes that and he's in with a real chance.

They've just updated again - the maps and the percentage of voters has been removed, showing just the vote totals now, but she's leading in every state, and significantly so in Florida. Really surprised about Ohio - it's a slender lead - but if she won that and held everything else, then it's a very clear margin of victory.

But, again, it's too early yada yada blah blah blah....

PopePalpatine · 08-11-2016 09:27PM

InTheTrees wrote: »

Everyone's been talking about the "secret" trump voters. I think there's going to be a sizable turnout of "secret" Hillary voters.

I've been wondering that myself for the past couple of days. Perhaps there's legions of silent Clinton voters married to anything-but-silent Trump voters out there, who are unwilling to come out about supporting her?

Rjd2 · 08-11-2016 09:28PM

InTheTrees wrote: »

Everyone's been talking about the "secret" trump voters. I think there's going to be a sizable turnout of "secret" Hillary voters.

Well Trump has done wonders for the Hispanic turnout this year to be fair on him.:)

He definitely will have first time voters, but it will be somewhat offset by those who may have decided to stay at home if the republicans had fielded a generic candidate coming out to vote for Clinton.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I've been wondering that myself for the past couple of days. Perhaps there's legions of silent Clinton voters married to anything-but-silent Trump voters out there, who are unwilling to come out about supporting her?

You could be right, you recall Sanders v Clinton? You look at the rallies and how vocal and passionate the Sanders fans were compared to supposedly Clinton?

Well when it was all said and done Bern got trashed, it will be similar for Donald.

I don't like HC, but people underestimate how popular she is.

Sofa Spud · 08-11-2016 09:36PM

Sky just reported that Trump called into Fox, complaining of widespread voter fraud across the country - guy has no shame...

PopePalpatine · 08-11-2016 09:38PM

I recall Sanders winning Michigan too despite all the polls projecting a Hillary win, I still have a doubt in the back of my mind that Trump could pull off a win there.

Timberrrrrrrr · 08-11-2016 09:38PM

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Sky just reported that Trump called into Fox, complaining of widespread voter fraud across the country - guy has no shame...

He was always going to say this, he knows he can't win but being the egomaniac that he is he will only accept "fraud" as his reason for losing.

Stheno · 08-11-2016 09:40PM

Apparently his lawyer is already in court in nevada trying to have votes from one polling station thrown out

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-08/trump-seeks-court-order-against-county-registrar-in-nevada

Itssoeasy · 08-11-2016 09:43PM

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Sky just reported that Trump called into Fox, complaining of widespread voter fraud across the country - guy has no shame...

Well fox seem to be having Donald and his family on for a few hours.

Nody · 08-11-2016 09:44PM

Stheno wrote: »

Apparently his lawyer is already in court in nevada trying to have votes from one polling station thrown out

Already thrown out; basically he complained that one voting station was open for 2h after the announced closing time. However the Nevada voting law requires any station to remain open after closing time to allow everyone who was in the queue at the time of planned closure to cast their vote which was what happened. Article here.

Itssoeasy · 08-11-2016 09:45PM

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I recall Sanders winning Michigan too despite all the polls projecting a Hillary win, I still have a doubt in the back of my mind that Trump could pull off a win there.

yeah I'm the same. I mean a few weeks ago no I felt that Clinton would win easily but like you I have this doubt for whatever reason that I can't shake.

Sofa Spud · 08-11-2016 09:51PM

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I recall Sanders winning Michigan too despite all the polls projecting a Hillary win, I still have a doubt in the back of my mind that Trump could pull off a win there.

The one thing to consider with that result - the polls were so pro-Hillary in the run-up, with Saint Nate giving her 99% chance to win the day before, so a lot of Clinton voters decided not to go out in nasty weather to vote and Bernie's highly motivated voters did. Now we're seeing a lot of voters, especially the Latino vote, energised to vote against Trump, and that could be the deciding factor...

cnocbui · 08-11-2016 10:35PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

yeah I'm the same. I mean a few weeks ago no I felt that Clinton would win easily but like you I have this doubt for whatever reason that I can't shake.

They voted for Bush twice!, so Trump isn't a stretch at all, unfortunately.

Overheal · 08-11-2016 10:46PM

Stheno wrote: »

Apparently his lawyer is already in court in nevada trying to have votes from one polling station thrown out

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-08/trump-seeks-court-order-against-county-registrar-in-nevada

Judge smacked him down

aloyisious · 08-11-2016 10:51PM

Nody wrote: »

Already thrown out; basically he complained that one voting station was open for 2h after the announced closing time. However the Nevada voting law requires any station to remain open after closing time to allow everyone who was in the queue at the time of planned closure to cast their vote which was what happened. Article here.

That might be the same hearing where the judge threw out an application by the Trump campaign for details of the polling station staff. She denied it as well, saying she wasn't going to allow people to troll the staff by twitter.

gitzy16v · 08-11-2016 10:53PM

https://twitter.com/lordaedonis/status/79601607423...

im sure its an innocent explantion,surely it be easier to change the vote after.

its from another forum...not sure if link works

Ronin247 · 08-11-2016 11:04PM

Paddy Power has Trump 4/1 with Hillary 1/6 . I usually find when there is that much difference in bookmakers odds that they are fairly sure on the issue.

I will be so glad to see the back of Trump.

paulie21 · 08-11-2016 11:09PM

Sky seem to be tipping Trump taking Florida, Ohio & N Carolina

price690 · 08-11-2016 11:11PM

Ronin247 wrote: »

Paddy Power has Trump 4/1 with Hillary 1/6 . I usually find when there is that much difference in bookmakers odds that they are fairly sure on the issue.

I will be so glad to see the back of Trump.

Wasn't the stay campaign for Brexit similarly odds on aswell when polls closed?

RobertKK · 08-11-2016 11:13PM

So change is the biggest factor for choosing their candidate at 38%

Another poll had a majority who want a strong leader.

blackcard · 08-11-2016 11:23PM

paulie21 wrote: »

Sky seem to be tipping Trump taking Florida, Ohio & N Carolina

In the RealClear Politics Poll of Polls, he is ahead in all three states, albeit narrowly in Florida. He really only needs to turn a 0.6% deficit in New Hampshire and he could be president. He has other options in Pennsylvenia, Michigan and Colorado. Clinton is still favourite but it is not over yet.

Itssoeasy · 08-11-2016 11:26PM

Cuyahoga County in Ohio has been mentioned in on CNN. That's the same county in Ohio that Karl rove lost it on Fox News in 2012.

captbarnacles · 08-11-2016 11:29PM

Trump out a point and half in betting since this morning

captbarnacles · 08-11-2016 11:30PM

nm nearly 2 points nows

RobertKK · 08-11-2016 11:33PM

CNN exit poll says racial turnout is similar to 4 years ago.

Latino vote up 1%

captbarnacles · 08-11-2016 11:37PM

woah what just happened? trump went from 7 to 8's in 30 secs

BorneTobyWilde · 08-11-2016 11:40PM

He really can't .
Even if he could they would not allow it.

2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

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