November 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium __________ 5.8 __ 16.3 __ --6.5 ___ 080 __ 115 ___ 0.2

Table of forecasts for November 2016


FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Low max

Rameire ______________ 8.2 _ 16.6 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 096 ___ 1.5
200motels ____________ 7.8 _ 16.1 _ -2.1 _ 074 _ 085 ___ 3.5
Tae laidir _____________ 7.6 _ 14.5 _ -4.8 _ 084 _ 108 ___ 3.8
Bsal _________________ 7.4 _ 14.0 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 098 ___ 5.0
Kindred Spirit __________7.3 _ 16.6 _ -4.1 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 8.0
Lumi _________________7.3 _ 14.7 _ -5.3 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 5.7
waterways ____________ 7.2 _ 15.5 _ -4.2 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 2.0

Norma L ______________ 7.2 _ 17.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 2.5

john mac _____________ 7.1 _ 14.9 _ -5.1 _ 096 _ 106 ___ 6.6 (mt dillon 29th )
JD_____ (-5) __________ 7.0 _ 16.1 _ -5.7 _ 089 _ 109 ___ 2.4
Rikand _______________ 7.0 _ 16.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 5.0 (Mt Dillon 29th )
Dasa29 _______________7.0 _ 14.0 _ -3.5 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 7.0

Con Sensus ___________ 7.0 _ 15.2 _ -4.8 _ 090 _ 106 ___ 4.4

DOCARCH _____________6.9 _ 16.8 _ -4.9 _ 092 _ 102 ___ 5.2 (Ballyhaise 23rd)
Joe Public _____________6.9 _ 14.9 _ -5.5 _ 089 _ 106 ___ 1.1
Sunflower3 ____________6.8 _ 14.8 _ -5.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 4.5
sryanbruen ____________6.7 _ 15.0 _ -3.2 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 5.0
pauldry _______________6.6 _ 15.2 _ -6.1 _ 092 _ 108 ___ 3.6
mickger844posts _______ 6.5 _ 14.8 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 4.3
Jpmarn ____ (-2) _______6.5 _ 14.5 _ -3.5 _ 075 _ 120 ___ 4.5 (Knock)
Carnacalla _____________6.2 _ 18.8 _ -4.8 _ 078 _ 125 ___ 6.5
Dacogawa _____________6.2 _ 16.3 _ -5.8 _ 071 _ 119 ___ 2.2
MrSkinner _____________6.2 _ 15.2 _ -4.2 _ 082 _ 122 ___ 3.2
M.T. Cranium __________ 5.8 _ 16.3 _ -6.5 _ 080 _ 115 ___ 0.2 (Mullingar 25th)
__________________________________________________________

Our consensus is for a somewhat cold month although it appears that there are two camps, one for a rather mild month and the other for a quite cold November. The group also leans towards a rather dry and sunny November although with the average being about 2 hours of sun a day, 6% more equates to 7.2 minutes, so enjoy those.

I have listed whatever guesses were noted (and added my own) for location and date of the low max. For the normal value there, I just approximated from past recollections, usually towards the end of the month there's some snow in the air in the north at least and it's not that unusual for Knock or Ballyhaise to stay below 3 degrees. But that's just my subjective recall, pretty certain that Nov 2010 produced some near or subzero maxima in November after heavy snow fell in Leinster. Evidently that's what I'm expecting in my guess.

The October scoring is all up to date and the scoring race is very very close, I think the total range from top to bottom is probably a lot smaller than usual this year.

There was a reading of 14.0 at Valentia on Friday 11th but I expect that to be shoved aside later today. Contenders for low max perhaps on Thursday or Friday.

New low max of 5.0 at Knock on 17th (5.2 Mullingar).

May not be the lowest, we shall see.

For the record, 3.7 at Moorepark on Saturday 19th, but looks like today will shatter that mark. A new MIN is also going to be reported from this morning, at least -4 at several locations. That was starting to show at midnight lows for yesterday but nothing then below the current -3.0 from earlier in the month.

The IMT has fallen to 6.6 after 19th and probably to 6.0 by next update through Monday.

In June 2013 John mac scored 94 without any benefit of minimum progression scoring adjustments.

Looking back, I found several cases of 90 and one where Con scored 92.

That was going back as far as the 2012 contest.

I would be surprised to do much better than 80 in this month, maybe mid 80s if lucky on the MIN.

-5 at Markree for several hours overnight.

Expect a lower max at Oak Park for Sunday when all data in.

Okay, the good news about that is that I was about dead last in the scoring table after October so no real threat to anyone above the halfway point no matter what happens. The new MIN appears to be --5.8 at Markree. As low as that is, it appears that we don't need to use the "mercy rule" for scores as I see a 20, a 19, and two at 17. My score would be 13 on that. If it goes colder, there's one (Pauldry) at -6.1 and my guess was -6.5. The mercy rule would probably kick in if we have a reading a bit lower than my guess (otherwise maybe needed to boost a few lower half scores by a couple of points).

We had a rather modified version of this mercy rule in Dec 2010, what I did that year was to guarantee 20, 15 and 10 points. As it happened, the winner that month had only 55 points (Danno who also won the yearly contest), he scored well on everything but the IMT which was -0.4, there again the boosted scores dropped off fairly fast (the three closest were something like 2.0, 2.4 and 2.7). It was after that month that I inflated the minimum progression to its more robust nature that we have all come to admire. There will be the odd time when just one person or maybe two or three get a bit of a shaft from that, let's say the MIN is -7.0 for sake of argument, then the five highest raw scores would be 15, 11, 9, 8 and 7; the minimum progression scores would be 18, 17, 16, 15 and 14; the gains for those five would be 3, 6, 7, 7 and 7. I suspect that lower down the table the gains would start approaching 10 points. But that's a hypothetical for now. It all evens out over the course of a year, and produces the desired result that each month will be fairly close in terms of average scoring (so it won't matter as much which months you miss or do badly in).

So, on to the week three reporting ...

IMT is now 6.06 (or 6.1) after a very cold week at 4.2 (3.0 below normal for the period 15th-21st). If this averages 5.0 now to end of month, the outcome will be 5.7 and if it averages 4.0, 5.4. Looking at the model runs, I think it will be in that range somewhere but it could stay close to 6 if some of the nights are not bitterly cold.

PRC is now at 75% of normal, with the week at 92%, dry in the southeast to rather wet far north. This looks to be anchoring a finish that may not get past where it is now, or fall off to where some mercy scoring would kick in (not much, we have several forecasts in the 70s).

SUN is at 124% of normal with this past week 112% (Shannon was below average otherwise the rest of the stations were well above normal). This could finish even a bit higher, it would only take two rather sunny days and bits of sunshine most other days to keep the values in this range. The value that would kick off the mercy rule (and a modest one point inflation of most scores) would be 130%, so these scores are probably more or less determined now.

MAX of 16.9 and MIN of --5.8 so far.

As to the bonus, scoring there is settled. The low max of 0.4 at Oak Park as reported can only drop further so the three lowest guesses (MTC at 0.2, Joe Public at 1.1, Rameire at 1.5) will gain the ten points, then it will be waterways, JD and dacogawa with 9. From there to one point, I will go in pairs for the rest of the scores. MrSkinner and 200motels will get 8 points along with NormaL.

So as to this rumored very high score, that can be no higher than 94 but that would need more rain and less sun than I'm expecting, and a direct hit on the IMT. The more likely total would be something like 85. And there would then be several other scores in that same vicinity. Dacogawa can still finish with 93 and looks set to score at least as high as me or maybe higher (his IMT is offset by other things being closer).

IMT currently on 5.84 C after 23 days and probably about 5.7 after today. IMT minimum progression requires scores to run 23,22,21 etc with doubles only as needed by number of entries. We have just the right number of entries (22) not to double up but the second adjusted score is a three-way tie. This is going to create an odd result that would actually turn out better if the IMT rose now instead of falling further. But I will just go with the rules as the only person to face any harm from the outcome is me, and I am so far out of the contest that it doesn't matter even philosophically, probably wouldn't be any different if like last year it was a scoring issue near the end for me. So, can pretty much say that the three forecasts at 6.2 will get 22 points whatever unless that's worth more than 22 (an IMT of 6.0 would give them 23). At this point, if we are at 5.6 now and 5.5 after Friday, which seems conservative, then it would take an average of 8.5 from Saturday to Wednesday 30th to get back to 6.0 and I can't see that happening although it may try to get that warm by Tuesday.

The Battle of MIN will determine the outcome, everything else could probably be scored right now.

It has been -6 every hour since midnight at Markree, up to and including 0700h, and -4 at Ballyhaise and Mountdillon for several hours.