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November 2016 Boards forecast contest

  • 27-10-2016 5:09am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,208 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 7.2 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

    6. For a BONUS question, predict the lowest maximum temperature at any station that normally reports daily on the met.ie site. Points will all be based on the temperature this time, but you can also mention date and location if you wish.


    Deadline for entries will be 0300h Tuesday 1st of November, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Wednesday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).

    Good luck.


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 6.7 _ 15.0_ -3.2 _ 101_ 105_ 5.0c

    I hope I'm wrong, all hopes for a freezing cold November!

    EDIT: Feck it, I'm going for a cold November.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry __________ 8.1 _ 17.2_ -6.1 _ 100_ 100_ 3.6c


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,715 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal __________ 7.4 _ 14.0_ -3.0 _ 95_ 98_ 5.0c


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Carnacalla __________ 6.2 _ 18.8_ -4.8 _ 78_ 125_ 6.5c


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels
    7.8 _ 16.1_ -2.1 _ 74_ 85_ 3.5c


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  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 __________ 7.0 _ 14.0_ -3.5 _ 90_ 95_ 7.0c


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH__________ 6.9 _ 16.8_ -4.9 _ 92_ 102_ 5.2c (Ballyhaise - 23rd)


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 7.3º ___ 16.6 ___ -4.1 ___ 80 ___ 105 ___ 8.0º


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    [QUOTE=pauldry __________ 6.6 _ 15.2_ -6.1 _ 92_ 108_ 3.6c

    Changn my guess to this.

    Cold possible


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 __________ 6.8 _ 14.8_ -5.1 _ 110_ 95_ 4.5c


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,564 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand _____ 7.0 ____ 16.0 _____ -5.0 _____ 90 _____ 120 _____ 5.0 (Mt Dillon 29th )


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner.................6.2.......15.2°.......-4.2°.......82.......122.........3.2°


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways __________ 7.2 _ 15.5_ -4.2 _ 100_ 100_ 2.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac __________ 7.1 _ 14.9_ -5.1 _ 96_ 106_ 6.6c (mt dillon 29th )


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi __________ 7.3 _ 14.7_ -5.3 _ 100_ 95_ 5.7


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts 6.5 _ 14.8_ -2.8 _ 110_ 100_ 4.3c


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir __________ 7.6 _ 14.5 _ -4.8 _ 84 _ 108 _ 3.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,208 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium __________ 5.8 __ 16.3 __ --6.5 ___ 080 __ 115 ___ 0.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,764 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire __________ 8.2 __ 16.6 __ -5.5 ___ 110 __ 096 ___ 1.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public __________ 6.9 __ 14.9 __ --5.5 ___ 089 __ 106___ 1.1


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn __________ 6.5_ 14.5_ -3.5 _ 75_ 120_ 4.5 Knock.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa __________ 6.2 _ 16.3_ -5.8 _ 71_ 119_ 2.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,581 ✭✭✭ jd


    JD__________7 _ 16.1_ -5.7 _ 89_ 109_ 2.4


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,208 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for November 2016


    FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Low max

    Rameire ______________ 8.2 _ 16.6 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 096 ___ 1.5
    200motels ____________ 7.8 _ 16.1 _ -2.1 _ 074 _ 085 ___ 3.5
    Tae laidir _____________ 7.6 _ 14.5 _ -4.8 _ 084 _ 108 ___ 3.8
    Bsal _________________ 7.4 _ 14.0 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 098 ___ 5.0
    Kindred Spirit __________7.3 _ 16.6 _ -4.1 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 8.0
    Lumi _________________7.3 _ 14.7 _ -5.3 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 5.7
    waterways ____________ 7.2 _ 15.5 _ -4.2 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 2.0

    Norma L ______________ 7.2 _ 17.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 2.5

    john mac _____________ 7.1 _ 14.9 _ -5.1 _ 096 _ 106 ___ 6.6 (mt dillon 29th )
    JD_____ (-5) __________ 7.0 _ 16.1 _ -5.7 _ 089 _ 109 ___ 2.4
    Rikand _______________ 7.0 _ 16.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 5.0 (Mt Dillon 29th )
    Dasa29 _______________7.0 _ 14.0 _ -3.5 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 7.0

    Con Sensus ___________ 7.0 _ 15.2 _ -4.8 _ 090 _ 106 ___ 4.4

    DOCARCH _____________6.9 _ 16.8 _ -4.9 _ 092 _ 102 ___ 5.2 (Ballyhaise 23rd)
    Joe Public _____________6.9 _ 14.9 _ -5.5 _ 089 _ 106 ___ 1.1
    Sunflower3 ____________6.8 _ 14.8 _ -5.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 4.5
    sryanbruen ____________6.7 _ 15.0 _ -3.2 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 5.0
    pauldry _______________6.6 _ 15.2 _ -6.1 _ 092 _ 108 ___ 3.6
    mickger844posts _______ 6.5 _ 14.8 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 4.3
    Jpmarn ____ (-2) _______6.5 _ 14.5 _ -3.5 _ 075 _ 120 ___ 4.5 (Knock)
    Carnacalla _____________6.2 _ 18.8 _ -4.8 _ 078 _ 125 ___ 6.5
    Dacogawa _____________6.2 _ 16.3 _ -5.8 _ 071 _ 119 ___ 2.2
    MrSkinner _____________6.2 _ 15.2 _ -4.2 _ 082 _ 122 ___ 3.2
    M.T. Cranium __________ 5.8 _ 16.3 _ -6.5 _ 080 _ 115 ___ 0.2 (Mullingar 25th)
    __________________________________________________________

    Our consensus is for a somewhat cold month although it appears that there are two camps, one for a rather mild month and the other for a quite cold November. The group also leans towards a rather dry and sunny November although with the average being about 2 hours of sun a day, 6% more equates to 7.2 minutes, so enjoy those.

    I have listed whatever guesses were noted (and added my own) for location and date of the low max. For the normal value there, I just approximated from past recollections, usually towards the end of the month there's some snow in the air in the north at least and it's not that unusual for Knock or Ballyhaise to stay below 3 degrees. But that's just my subjective recall, pretty certain that Nov 2010 produced some near or subzero maxima in November after heavy snow fell in Leinster. Evidently that's what I'm expecting in my guess.

    The October scoring is all up to date and the scoring race is very very close, I think the total range from top to bottom is probably a lot smaller than usual this year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,208 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT 6.2 (2.4 below normal for the period).

    (MAX not in play, MIN -3.0 on 7th at Casement and Gurteen)

    PRC a mere 22% of normal but after today probably closer to 50%.

    SUN 195% of normal.

    Low max so far appears to be 7.9 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,208 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    There was a reading of 14.0 at Valentia on Friday 11th but I expect that to be shoved aside later today. Contenders for low max perhaps on Thursday or Friday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yes likely 16 or 17c today

    Fierce mild altogether

    Currently 16.9c in Finner at 1700hr


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Finner Camp 16.9 max yesterday.
    GUBU.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,208 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT at 7.0 with the second week at 8.3, about 0.3 deg above normal (yesterday pushed this up above normal actually).

    PRC now at 67% with this past week a little moist (111% of normal).

    SUN is now at 131% after a rather dull week (67% lowest in Munster where close to half).

    MAX as noted above 16.9 C, MIN --3.0).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,208 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    New low max of 5.0 at Knock on 17th (5.2 Mullingar).

    May not be the lowest, we shall see.


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