Why will the Govt not hold an "Irexit" referendum?

ligerdub · 07-11-2016 03:55PM

The only reason the UK held a referendum was due to the rising influence of UKIP, which forced their hand.
They got 4.5 million votes in a general election off of a single issue policy, and were becoming a threat to the Tory party, the traditional conservative party in the UK. If people were flocking to UKIP then they could be moving away from the Conservatives.

Given the first past the post system over there the Conservatives had a very easy solution to learn from this at practically zero cost. Up until that point the damage of the 4.5 million votes was merely a threat, it mattered little to the structure of the government, as they only managed to get 1 seat in parliament, even with all those votes. By calling a referendum it stemmed the influence of UKIP (to practically zero) and reinforced the Conservatives as the party to vote for for centre-right and anything slightly more to the right. They weren't prepared to spout any anti-immigration policies, as the modern view is that it's harmful for votes, so by leaving it to the people they were killing two birds with one stone.

There is no way their government would have called for the referendum were it not for UKIP. It's not what they wanted but their hand was forced, and it seems with good cause given how the UK vote went.

None of this is in play here in Ireland, and even if a staunchly anti-Europe vote began to materialise here, the PR system would effectively remove the possibility of a large government party, such as FG, from holding a referendum to knock out the influence of a Eurosceptic party. The Eurosceptic party would already have achieved a degree of power due to the winning of a lot of seats in a general election.

As a final, and probably most crucial point, there is much less evidence that Ireland views leaving the EU as something we wish to do. The structure of the economy, the lack of immigration dangers (relative to that seen in the UK), and the scale of the economy compared to the UK are significantly different. Also, the UK is a foreign country, I don't see why we have to mimic their actions just because they've held a referendum.

Edups · 07-11-2016 03:58PM

pumpkin4life wrote: »

Who said I didn't like Ireland?

I'm open to correction but I interpret this as contempt.

pumpkin4life wrote: »

If it's not the British telling us what to do, its the Catholic church, and if its not the Catholic church then its the E.U/a large government telling us what to do. Just another vacumn for another large, powerful entity.

We're not the rebels we like to think we are.

pumpkin4life · 07-11-2016 04:14PM

Edups wrote: »

I'm open to correction but I interpret this as contempt.

Not at all. The Irish are a great bunch of lads. It's just a characteristic, which is relevant to the thread. I'd say the Scots and the Welsh (not so much the English) are similar in that regard as well.

We like and have always liked big organizations which tell us what to do and how to live, and probably always will. Because of that, we're going to be part of/highly supportive of the E.U for a very long time yet. I think this is important in terms of what we're going to do as the situation in Europe changes.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 07-11-2016 04:28PM

Call yourself a Political Analyst? Jeez!

endacl · 07-11-2016 05:35PM

Brooklyn Sparse Truck wrote: »

Call yourself a Political Analyst? Jeez!

I'd actually just skipped to the end if the thread to post that exact post.

ellejay · 07-11-2016 06:06PM

ligerdub wrote: »

As a final, and probably most crucial point, there is much less evidence that Ireland views leaving the EU as something we wish to do. The structure of the economy, the lack of immigration dangers (relative to that seen in the UK), and the scale of the economy compared to the UK are significantly different. Also, the UK is a foreign country, I don't see why we have to mimic their actions just because they've held a referendum.

I'd love to know why so many posters think this.

I live in North Wicklow and pretty much everyone I've spoken to about Brexit would vote to leave the eu.
It's not an "official" pole but I've also friends / relations in Kerry, Donegal, Dublin and they'd all vote in heartbeat to leave the eu.

So to answer the Op's question, in my humble opinion, the Irish gov won't hold a referendum because Ireland will vote to leave.
En Masse.

jackwigan · 07-11-2016 06:28PM

Harika wrote: »

Look at the Aftermath of the Brexit and how quickly it became clear that the promises of the Leave-Camp were illusional at best, also how the whole process is a disaster from the beginning to the end. So if you still think Ireland should vote for that, great, I have some magic beans to sell.

You had my curiosity....

Now you have my attention!

Birneybau · 07-11-2016 06:38PM

endacl wrote: »

I'd actually just skipped to the end if the thread to post that exact post.

Birneybau wrote: »

Are you really a political analyst? Doesn't seem it.

A few hours ago.

Snickers Man · 07-11-2016 06:41PM

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

For the same reason they won't hold a referendum on reintroducing the death penalty or joining Nato: There's little or no public demand for it.

Er, we held a referendum on the death penalty just a few years ago. We decided, overwhelmingly, to get rid of it. Why would there be any need even to consider it?

Maximus Alexander · 07-11-2016 06:49PM

pumpkin4life wrote: »

I'm not sure if I agree with this. If that is the will of the Irish people, then so be it. Not some random lad from Brussels or Enda Kenny who "knows what's good for us" being far superior beings to the rest of us lads.

But sure this is exactly why we elect a government; because we don't all 'know what's good for us'. The majority of us don't know our arse from our elbow when it comes to economics, law and politics, even if we like to speak about it like experts until the cows come home. We've other things to be worrying about, like doing our own jobs where our expertise actually lies, so we elect people to look after the running of the country for us.

And in anticipation of the inevitable "sure the people in government don't know their arse from their elbow either" response; well we elected them. If we couldn't even get that right then I don't know why anyone would want complex issues like EU membership put into the hands of direct democracy.

the evasion_kid · 07-11-2016 07:58PM

political analyst wrote: »

The EU isn't communist. After all, it's very big on freedom of choice for consumers.

It's regulates the bejaysus out of everything...usually to the advantage of big business

ligerdub · 07-11-2016 08:00PM

ellejay wrote: »

I'd love to know why so many posters think this.

I live in North Wicklow and pretty much everyone I've spoken to about Brexit would vote to leave the eu.
It's not an "official" pole but I've also friends / relations in Kerry, Donegal, Dublin and they'd all vote in heartbeat to leave the eu.

So to answer the Op's question, in my humble opinion, the Irish gov won't hold a referendum because Ireland will vote to leave.
En Masse.

Yes, they might well do, but there is no incentive for the government to bring one forward, as it is really not in the interests of the political class to do so. Without the influence of UKIP, the UK government wouldn't have called one either.

Whether or not the Irish would choose to elect to leave the EU if there were to be a referendum today is irrelevant. My previous post suggests why I believe this to be so, and why there hasn't and probably won't be one in Ireland for the foreseeable.

I'd also suggest that you can't base the opinion of the nation on a straw poll of your friends.

Alun · 07-11-2016 08:02PM

ligerdub wrote: »

I'd also suggest that you can't base the opinion of the nation on a straw poll of your friends.

People tend to associate and socialize with people who broadly agree with their general world view, so it's hardly surprising. Nobody I know would vote for Irexit, but then neither would I.

ligerdub · 07-11-2016 08:58PM

Huh?

Grayson · 07-11-2016 09:38PM

RobertKK wrote: »

I love my Irish AND European Union citizenship.

A break up of the EU would not be a good thing for our continent.

You and I argue about some stuff so much it's strange to agree with you

35cent · 07-11-2016 09:45PM

Because there's little interest in that in Ireland. Besides, people may be put off by what's happening in the UK at the moment.

diograis · 07-11-2016 10:59PM

Alun wrote: »

People tend to associate and socialize with people who broadly agree with their general world view, so it's hardly surprising. Nobody I know would vote for Irexit, but then neither would I.

Because given the open nature of our economy and the presence of so many multinational enterprises it would be retarded.

Zaph · 07-11-2016 11:53PM

political analyst wrote: »

gandalf wrote: »

There is no public appetite for it and there are far more important issues that need to be put to a referendum.

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-quinn/fine-gael-treats-prolife-voters-with-contempt-to-fianna-fils-gain-34649626.html

Why not hold a referendum on Irish membership of the EU while we're at it? Of course, there is no media demand for that, but again let's not confuse media demand and public demand.

Hang on a minute - you're using a quote from an opinion piece by David Quinn, of all people, as evidence that there's public demand for an EU exit referendum? Seriously? Do you want a free name change, because you're not really living up to the current one.

Edups · 08-11-2016 12:01AM

op is a brit trying to drag us down with them. Well nice try mr anylist I've caught you now... now go cut me a swatch

For Forks Sake · 08-11-2016 12:14AM

Edups wrote: »

op is a brit trying to drag us down with them. Well nice try mr anylist I've caught you now... now go cut me a swatch

Probably found out his employer is moving to Dublin from London in the aftermath of Brexit

ChikiChiki · 08-11-2016 12:46AM

Our corporation tax is a huge draw for multinationals. The EU are making moves towards tax harmonisation and we could lose our tax rate. Not sure how our economy would fare then. Honestly think we'll struggle to hold that 12.5% for another decade.

*On a side note was sat beside Commissioner Hogan the other day when out for dinner. Detestable individual.

daithijjj · 08-11-2016 01:44AM

political analyst wrote: »

In the aftermath of the vote by the majority of the UK electorate in favour of their country leaving the EU, why won't our government give us the opportunity to decide whether or not our country should remain in the EU?

Surely, "Irexit" would be beneficial to us because it would save us a lot of money in terms of our financial contribution to the EU apparatus and maybe even get the Irish national debt reduced because we might only then have to pay money back to the IMF instead of to the Troika. Furthermore, Ireland could have a new economic relationship with the UK when the UK eventually leaves the EU.

Ireland will remain in the EU until it is told otherwise. The EU will continue on its merry way, demanding cash off whoever happens to be doing well despite not getting a clean bill of health off The European Court of Auditors for around 20 years.

Jayop · 08-11-2016 04:52PM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Our corporation tax is a huge draw for multinationals. The EU are making moves towards tax harmonisation and we could lose our tax rate. Not sure how our economy would fare then. Honestly think we'll struggle to hold that 12.5% for another decade.

*On a side note was sat beside Commissioner Hogan the other day when out for dinner. Detestable individual.

Despite repeated assurances that the UE will not get involved in our corporation tax this is still repeated over and over. It's like Ireland's answer to the bendy banana.

markpb · 08-11-2016 05:10PM

Jayop wrote: »

Despite repeated assurances that the UE will not get involved in our corporation tax this is still repeated over and over. It's like Ireland's answer to the bendy banana.

Would it would be more correct to say that CCCTB will leave the Irish tax rate alone but reduce the percentage of that tax that we receive? Either way, it looks likely that we'll have to find another source of income in the future.

Jayop · 08-11-2016 05:28PM

markpb wrote: »

Would it would be more correct to say that CCCTB will leave the Irish tax rate alone but reduce the percentage of that tax that we receive? Either way, it looks likely that we'll have to find another source of income in the future.

I'm not sure why. The multi nationals that re based in Ireland use us for tax avoidance anyway and pay nothing close to the rate that out corporation tax is set to anyway as was seen by the recent Apple ruling from Europe where they had to/have to pay us a huge sum of money that they should have already been paying. If the CCCTB does go through then Ireland will be getting their percentage of the money gathered through it and if it does manage to cut down tax avoidance then we could end up in a better position.

JupiterKid · 08-11-2016 05:32PM

No. The result would be strongly remain - and it would be a complete disaster for Ireland if we left. Being in the EU has modernised Ireland economically and socially.

Jayop · 08-11-2016 05:34PM

JupiterKid wrote: »

No. The result would be strongly remain - and it would be a complete disaster for Ireland if we left. Being in the EU has modernised Ireland economically and socially.

Leaving the single currency would make leaving Europe all but impossible for Ireland from a technical point of view now anyway.

CelticRambler · 08-11-2016 05:42PM

ellejay wrote: »

I live in North Wicklow and pretty much everyone I've spoken to about Brexit would vote to leave the eu.
It's not an "official" pole but I've also friends / relations in Kerry, Donegal, Dublin and they'd all vote in heartbeat to leave the eu.

OK, tell us why they'd vote to leave.

My name is URL · 08-11-2016 05:45PM

political analyst wrote: »

it would save us a lot of money in terms of our financial contribution to the EU apparatus and maybe even get the Irish national debt reduced because we might only then have to pay money back to the IMF instead of to the Troika

I don't know what planet it is you live on, but if you close your bank account it doesn't mean you no longer need to pay back your mortgage.

What makes you think that our debt would be lessened if we left the EU?

maryishere · 08-11-2016 10:17PM

wes wrote: »

The only big idea is economic union with the UK,

wes wrote: »

. Why join another economic union that is far smaller than the one we just left? Your idea doesn't add up at all.

Because we have more in common with Liverpool than Leipzig. We would have a 5 or 6 % or thereabouts say in the running of these islands, compared to only a 1% speak in the running of the EU.

For example during the economic boom / the credit boom, which ruined this country, interest rates in Ireland were set to favour the german economy, not ours. Had we been part of a smaller union, we would have been better off.

Perhaps the new economic union could include in some way the UK, Ireland, Canada, New Zealand and Australia ....all countries not unfamiliar to many Irish people.

Why will the Govt not hold an "Irexit" referendum?

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