Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Help Keep Boards Alive. Support us by going ad free today. See here: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/.
If we do not hit our goal we will be forced to close the site.

Current status: https://keepboardsalive.com/

Annual subs are best for most impact. If you are still undecided on going Ad Free - you can also donate using the Paypal Donate option. All contribution helps. Thank you.

2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

1…145146148150151…314

Comments

  • #4412
    B_Wayne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,039 ✭✭✭B_Wayne


    Sofa Spud wrote: »
    Anyone notice that he's not mentioning the wall as much lately?

    It seems to be more that he's a flailing wreck and anything close to a script exited the window.


  • #4413
    Black Swan
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,769 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    ebbsy wrote: »
    No wonder she was sitting down all the time in the 2nd debate.
    There were chairs provided for each of the candidates for this Community forum debate so that each candidate could have the option to relax during discussions, unlike the paired podium debate to be hosted in Nevada tonight. Part of the reason for chairs was to create a relaxed atmosphere. Are you claiming that if Hillary Clinton sits down on occasion in the seats provided, that something must be wrong with her? Trump also sat down. Do you have any quantitative evidence that would suggest that the number of times each candidate sat down, and for how long they sat down might suggest that they were physically unfit to be president? What threshold (or anecdotal line in the sand) did you use to come up with this conclusion about Hillary Clinton, and not Donald Trump, who also sat down?


  • #4414
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Some of the (3rd Presidential Debate Futures) markets on offer, for tonight include:

    - Donald Trump to walk out during the live broadcast 8.50 (15/2)
    - Hillary Clinton to take a drug test before the debate 15.00 (14/1)
    - Donald Trump to not attend the 3rd Debate 15.00 (14/1)

    - Will Hillary Clinton say the following words in the 3rd live debate: Trumped-Up 2/1

    Will Donald Trump say the following words in the 20/10/2016 live debate:
    - Worst Secretary of State 2/1
    - You’re Fired 8/1

    A couple of these (in bold) may have some likely-hood, the rest, not so much.


  • #4415
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,245 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Mentioned that wall in rallies all this week. It's funny how DNC gets people to cause violence at Trump rallies yet no one things it's a big deal. It's funny how they use voter fraud to get ahead. These are things said directly from the mouths of people that work their campaign, yet it's not rigged eh .
    Voter fraud '' we have people that can make things happen that you don't need to know about '' She's so crooked it's laughable .


  • #4416
    InTheTrees
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »
    Wouldn't over rely on Poll data, as it didn't fair too well for some folks during the Brexit recently, nor the UK general elections before that.

    The american polling companies know what they're doing. They've always been accurate in the past.

    That polling companies wete off in some other countries is hardly very relevant is it?


  • Advertisement
  • #4417
    realitykeeper
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    Stopping US companies moving to other countries seems to be much higher on Trumps priority list than Clintons. That being the case, how does Donald Trump really view Ireland? More to the point, should he be elected President, what will he have to say to Enda Kenny next St Patrick`s day? Kenny has been critical of Trump and that is not something Trump is likely to forget. I believe Trump will be the next US President despite or rather because of mass media support for his opponent.


  • #4418
    CMOTDibbler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,830 ✭✭✭CMOTDibbler


    BorneTobyWilde wrote: »
    Mentioned that wall in rallies all this week. It's funny how DNC gets people to cause violence at Trump rallies yet no one things it's a big deal. It's funny how they use voter fraud to get ahead. These are things said directly from the mouths of people that work their campaign, yet it's not rigged eh .
    Voter fraud '' we have people that can make things happen that you don't need to know about '' She's so crooked it's laughable .
    You posted this crap before and were asked questions on it. You disappeared without answering them and here you are back again as if for the first time.

    So good luck with that.


  • #4419
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    InTheTrees wrote: »
    Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »
    Wouldn't over rely on Poll data, as it didn't fair too well for some folks during the Brexit recently, nor the UK general elections before that.

    The american polling companies know what they're doing. They've always been accurate in the past.

    That polling companies wete off in some other countries is hardly very relevant is it?


    The last brexit polls before the vote were a statistical tie, stay by 3% with a margin of error of about +\- 3% . So all this rhetoric about how the polls got it wrong are themselves in fact wrong.

    The leave vote was also rising the last few weeks and had the momentum, Trump is heading the other way.


  • #4420
    Sofa Spud
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    BorneTobyWilde wrote: »
    Mentioned that wall in rallies all this week. It's funny how DNC gets people to cause violence at Trump rallies yet no one things it's a big deal. It's funny how they use voter fraud to get ahead. These are things said directly from the mouths of people that work their campaign, yet it's not rigged eh .
    Voter fraud '' we have people that can make things happen that you don't need to know about '' She's so crooked it's laughable .


    Any evidence for this? Actual factual evidence, not just someone saying it or tweeting it?

    Actual research - a News21 analysis and recent court rulings - shows voter fraud is a statistical non-event. Previous posts show that most states, especially 'battleground' states have Republican administrations, and they are the folks responsible for running the elections in their states.

    Remember Katherine Harris? She was the Republican Secretary of State in Florida that certified the election result that handed the presidency to W.
    She was also responsible for the purge of the voters register in the years before that election that managed to eliminate eligible as well as ineligible voters that just happened to be predominantly black.

    Oh, and she was also co-chair of G W Bush's 2000 election committee in Florida....


  • #4421
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,245 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    He got fired.

    A friendly fire

    '' we will fire you to make it look like you were not under our orders, then we will take care of you as you know our secrets''

    '' yea good idea, I love you Hilary xx ''


  • Advertisement
  • #4422
    Billy86
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    CMOTDibbler wrote: »
    You posted this crap before and were asked questions on it. You disappeared without answering them and here you are back again as if for the first time.

    So good luck with that.

    It's become standard with this one - 'the polls are wrong' is coming up within their next 3-4 posts I reckon. I don't mean for that to sound like attacking the poster rather than the post - but I've pointed out the error in that maybe 8, 10, 12 times to them by now (e.g. Trump was winning 159 of 160 polls for the six months leading into the end of the primaries, and Brexit was if anything more towards 'leave' before the terrorist attack) and yet just as you say... no response, followed by the exact same falsehood 1-2 days later. Sometimes within the same day.


  • #4423
    Black Swan
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,769 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »
    Wouldn't over rely on Poll data, as it didn't fair too well for some folks during the Brexit recently, nor the UK general elections before that.

    It should also be noted that FiveThirtyEight uses 2 models when forecasting, a simple poll-driven model, and also a fundamentals-driven model, the latter incorporating a multiplicity of factors in addition to polls that are run 10's of thousands of times thanks to the convenience of computer statistical programming and analysis. FiveThirtyEight has had rather rigourous and confident forecasts during past presidential elections, but they too suggest that caution should be used in this 2016 presidential election when reading their results. They also suggest that the closer they get to 8 November 2016, the closer their forecast gets (but I think this last point is an elaboration of the obvious).


  • #4424
    aloyisious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,351 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    ebbsy wrote: »
    It's hard to believe there are actually people out there who think he is going to build a wall.

    Anything further on the wall he want's built on his Doonbeg golf course and resort in Co Clare?


  • #4425
    Sofa Spud
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    aloyisious wrote: »
    Anything further on the wall he want's built on his Doonbeg golf course and resort in Co Clare?

    The initial planning permission was turned down and he had to reply to about 50 specific points that Clare CoCo had made - hilariously, he seems to believe in the climatic impact of global warming when it impacts his property...


  • #4426
    glued
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,446 ✭✭✭glued


    Neither candidate is up to the job. I don't really know how anybody can honestly justify a vote for either candidate. Both have proven their incompetence time and time again. Trump says he's the guy to 'make America great again' yet he won't recognise his own workers rights and pay them their deserved minimum wage. Clinton has proven herself to be incompetent while in public office.


  • #4427
    gosplan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,828 ✭✭✭gosplan


    Trumps problem now is that the polls could be out a bit and he could win some of the states he looks like losing such as Arizona, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada Florida etc. but he has to win ALL of those and then take somewhere like Pennsylvania where he's trailing HRC more than he is nationally.


  • #4428
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,245 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    glued wrote: »
    Neither candidate is up to the job. I don't really know how anybody can honestly justify a vote for either candidate. Both have proven their incompetence time and time again. Trump says he's the guy to 'make America great again' yet he won't recognise his own workers rights and pay them their deserved minimum wage. Clinton has proven herself to be incompetent while in public office.

    I agree and one is worse than the other. The one with a track record of being corrupt politically.


  • #4429
    Sofa Spud
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    gosplan wrote: »
    Trumps problem now is that the polls could be out a bit and he could win some of the states he looks like losing such as Arizona, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada Florida etc. but he has to win ALL of those and then take somewhere like Pennsylvania where he's trailing HRC more than he is nationally.

    Steve Schmidt, McCain's campaign manager (the guy played by Woody Harrelson in Game Changer) was on tv this morning saying the panic has begun in relation to the polls and he believes that Hillary is now heading to exceed 400 in the electoral college. Agree that the polls can be wrong, but the momentum is clearly building for her, and barring something cataclysmic, she could be heading for a finish that not even Trump at his Trump-iest could spin as being fraud. Still curious to see what the turn-out will be....


  • #4430
    Overheal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Sofa Spud wrote: »
    Steve Schmidt, McCain's campaign manager (the guy played by Woody Harrelson in Game Changer) was on tv this morning saying the panic has begun in relation to the polls and he believes that Hillary is now heading to exceed 400 in the electoral college. Agree that the polls can be wrong, but the momentum is clearly building for her, and barring something cataclysmic, she could be heading for a finish that not even Trump at his Trump-iest could spin as being fraud. Still curious to see what the turn-out will be....

    97% is the popular landslide win for dictators..


  • #4431
    K-9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,313 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Brian? wrote: »
    That's absolute nonsense. There is zero evidence that she's "on something".

    The reason she sat down so much was there were chairs provided. Trump looked like a mad man, pacing around while Hillary talked.

    As Farage put it "he was like a silver backed gorilla".

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Advertisement
  • #4432
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,154 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Holy crap what happened to the polls in the last day?

    The BBC averages had it at 49% Clinton 40% Trump (yesterday I believe)

    Today it's 47% to 43%...

    Yes polls are not an exact science, yadda yadda.. but if Trump does well tonight, he could turn this into a close one


  • #4433
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,154 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    glued wrote: »
    Neither candidate is up to the job. I don't really know how anybody can honestly justify a vote for either candidate. Both have proven their incompetence time and time again. Trump says he's the guy to 'make America great again' yet he won't recognise his own workers rights and pay them their deserved minimum wage. Clinton has proven herself to be incompetent while in public office.

    It's subjective, there are those who think Obama has been incompetent.

    Generally, when asked (polled), a majority of Americans seem to view Hillary as being more fit for the job than Trump, despite her history in office.


  • #4434
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Dohnjoe wrote: »
    Today it's 47% to 43%...

    And usually with a margin error of 5%. Unless the polls have consulted each and every voting adult anonymously, then wouldn't take them too seriously.


  • #4435
    K-9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,313 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Dohnjoe wrote: »
    Holy crap what happened to the polls in the last day?

    The BBC averages had it at 49% Clinton 40% Trump (yesterday I believe)

    Today it's 47% to 43%...

    Yes polls are not an exact science, yadda yadda.. but if Trump does well tonight, he could turn this into a close one

    Can't trust the polls!

    Trump has got that close a couple of times in the campaign, that is his peak before yet another crash.

    13% chance of winning sounds about right.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • #4436
    CMOTDibbler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,830 ✭✭✭CMOTDibbler


    Dohnjoe wrote: »
    Holy crap what happened to the polls in the last day?

    The BBC averages had it at 49% Clinton 40% Trump (yesterday I believe)

    Today it's 47% to 43%...

    Yes polls are not an exact science, yadda yadda.. but if Trump does well tonight, he could turn this into a close one
    There are lots of polls. Lots and lots of them.

    The latest has Clinton 7 points ahead. Others have it tied. RCP average the polls and that has it 48.6 to 42.1.

    The thing to remember with US presidential elections is that it's electoral college votes that get you elected. The current projections have it strongly going Clinton's way with a better than 80% chance of her winning.


  • #4437
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,154 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    K-9 wrote: »
    Can't trust the polls!

    Trump has got that close a couple of times in the campaign, that is his peak before yet another crash.

    13% chance of winning sounds about right.

    Indeed, but Brexit was at what 9%?

    A good performance tonight could create a Trump rally


  • #4438
    Sofa Spud
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    Dohnjoe wrote: »
    Indeed, but Brexit was at what 9%?

    A good performance tonight could create a Trump rally

    Will people attending the Trump rally have to wear brown shirts?


  • #4439
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Dohnjoe wrote: »
    A good performance tonight could create a Trump rally

    Trump could turn out to be a wonderful president, and maybe the Moon really is made of green cheese.


  • #4440
    InTheTrees
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    You cant distrust polls just because you see two that are different.

    There's companies taking them daily, hourly even. They change all the time.


  • Advertisement
  • #4441
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Dohnjoe wrote: »
    Indeed, but Brexit was at what 9%?

    A good performance tonight could create a Trump rally

    No as I mentioned already tonight, Brexit polls were a statistical tie the week of the vote with the leave side having all the momentum.


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement