UK Votes to leave EU

catbear · 12-10-2016 08:08PM

daithijjj wrote: »

I simply used India as an example of size. Maybe i should have just said 80% of the world is outside the EU and most of it is growing faster than the EU.

China's demographics are going into reverse, SE asia is stalling. The only serious growth is in sub Sahara and west africa and a lot of those places are already pegged to the EURO via the west african franc.

daithijjj · 12-10-2016 08:20PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Do you mean that UK exports to non-EU countries are worth more pounds than UK imports from the rest of the EU?

Let's see:

Non-EU Exports for August 2016 were £12.3 billion. Non-EU Imports for for August 2016 were £22.6 billion. EU Exports for for August 2016 were £11.1 billion. EU Imports for August 2016 were £18.8 billion.

So, you are wrong and it isn't even close, EU imports are worth 50% more than non-EU exports.

No, what i meant to say was trade is obviously still important with the EU, just much less so than it used to be.

Since 2007/8 exports to the EU has declined and exports to the rest of the world (as a % of the UK's total exports) has over taken it.

Capt'n Midnight · 12-10-2016 09:01PM

maryishere wrote: »

Access is a two way thing. The British should not have to pay billions to Merkel to sell UK goods there, unless the Merkel pays billions to the UK so she can sell her bmw's in the UK.

The big problem is that the UK want's Beemers Mercs and Audis more than Germany wants generic cars that could just as easily be made in Eastern Europe.

Yes the UK has Jet Engines that the EU wants, but that is offset by an equal amount of Computer imports.

Capt'n Midnight · 12-10-2016 09:04PM

maryishere wrote: »

And there are plenty of other countries in the world to trade and do business with, many of whom are more go-ahead than those ruled from Brussels, who have been spoilt by Germany and the UK and Holland etc for too long.
See how successful a small place like Singapore has become?

Singapore might be a model for London going independent. But can you imagine how much Singapore would offer to be able provide services within Europe ?

First Up · 12-10-2016 09:07PM

daithijjj wrote:

Since 2007/8 exports to the EU has declined and exports to the rest of the world (as a % of the UK's total exports) has over taken it.

You need to go into those numbers in more detail. As with Ireland, smaller companies tend to service markets closer to home. In our case, while only 15% of total exports go to the UK, SMEs depend on the UK market for over 40% of theirs.

I haven't seen a similar analysis of UK export data but I would guess that the growth in sales to Asia, Africa etc is being driven by larger companies.

Far flung markets are a lot tougher for smaller companies than nearby markets like Netherlands, Denmark - or indeed Ireland.
It is a big ask of a small UK company to try to break into distant markets and adapt products for their different needs. Some will succeed but many will struggle.

maryishere · 12-10-2016 09:11PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Singapore might be a model for London going independent. But can you imagine how much Singapore would offer to be able provide services within Europe ?

If Singapore was clogged by the burden of Brussels, and had to contribute as much as a tenth of the net contributions the UK has made to EEC / EC / EU, then it would not be as successful as it was. Growth in mainland Europe is and has been much less than the rest of the world. Talking about Singapore , growth in it and other Commonwealth type countries like Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand etc puts growth in the EU in the shade.

Capt'n Midnight · 12-10-2016 09:13PM

CETA is the closest predictor for Brexit and we are all familiar with the hubris of "wheels falling off the chariot" in relation to English sports.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37603878

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) requires the unanimous support of all 28 EU member nations.

Belgium's French-speaking government in the southern region of Wallonia looks likely to block it due to fears that it could lead to a flood of cheap imports.

And this bit should strike terror into the hearts of those leaving.

"If the EU cannot do a deal with Canada, I think it is legitimate to say: Who the heck can it do a deal with?" Canadian International Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland said in June.

First Up · 12-10-2016 09:16PM

maryishere wrote:

If Singapore was clogged by the burden of Brussels, and had to contribute as much as a tenth of the net contributions the UK has made to EEC / EC / EU, then it would not be as successful as it was. Growth in mainland Europe is and has been much less than the rest of the world.

I'm still waiting for you to explain how if the UK has been propping up the EU, you accept that leaving it will have a negative economic impact?

maryishere · 12-10-2016 09:26PM

First Up wrote: »

I'm still waiting for you to explain how if the UK has been propping up the EU, you accept that leaving it will have a negative economic impact?

Since the seventies the UK and Germany have been the 2 biggest net contributors to EC funds. Where do you think all the money for our roads, motorways, farmers, students etc came from?

As regards Brexit, you are twisting words. I did not say " that leaving it will have a negative economic impact" for the UK. It will have some negative consequences along with some positive consequences : I said nobody knows yet for sure how it will pan out. I said I bet in 5 or 10 years time UK unemployment will still be less than half of EU unemployment, as it is now. The EU is failed and unsustainable. The UK will, in time I am sure, be glad it left.

FrancieBrady · 12-10-2016 09:40PM

maryishere wrote: »

Since the seventies the UK and Germany have been the 2 biggest net contributors to EC funds. Where do you think all the money for our roads, motorways, farmers, students etc came from?

As regards Brexit, you are twisting words. I did not say " that leaving it will have a negative economic impact" for the UK. It will have some negative consequences along with some positive consequences : I said nobody knows yet for sure how it will pan out. I said I bet in 5 or 10 years time UK unemployment will still be less than half of EU unemployment, as it is now. The EU is failed and unsustainable. The UK will, in time I am sure, be glad it left.

And I bet you unemployment will be worse in ten years in the UK blackspots. Notably in NI which has alarming destabilizing potential.

maryishere · 12-10-2016 09:44PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And I bet you unemployment will be worse in ten years in the UK blackspots. Notably in NI which has alarming destabilizing potential.

Quite possibly. That may be the case anyway. In the USA parts are wasteland e.g. Detroit. The way of the world. In a Unitied Ireland I believe the economic situation and political situation would be even worse though.

First Up · 12-10-2016 09:48PM

maryishere wrote:

As regards Brexit, you are twisting words. I did not say " that leaving it will have a negative economic impact" for the UK. It will have some negative consequences along with some positive consequences : I said nobody knows yet for sure how it will pan out. I said I bet in 5 or 10 years time UK unemployment will still be less than half of EU unemployment, as it is now. The EU is failed and unsustainable. The UK will, in time I am sure, be glad it left.

The only positive consequences you have articulated are about how Brexit will solve overcrowding and you ill-informed and inaccurate conclusion that the UK will be better off by not paying to "prop up" the EU.

A bit more Economist and a bit less Daily Mail would stand to you.

12-10-2016 09:55PM

maryishere wrote: »

Look at many countries in the failed EU...

Reality check: No country in world history has lost as much power in the past 100 years as your beloved Britain has, which explains the siege mentality of you and your fellow Brexiters.

Britain has been on the run since at least 1918. By the 1960s it was so desperate for relevancy it swallowed its pride, ditched EFTA and made several applications for EU membership. By 1976 the IMF had to bail the bankrupt British state out with massive loans (just as the US had to bail them out in the late 1940s) - but this is not something people like you would learn about.

When it comes to "failed states", therefore, it's no wonder you want to deflect attention by projecting the astounding British failure on to the EU.

Iwasfrozen · 12-10-2016 10:03PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Reality check: No country in world history has lost as much power in the past 100 years as your beloved Britain has, which explains the siege mentality of you and your fellow Brexiters.

Britain has been on the run since at least 1918. By the 1960s it was so desperate for relevancy it swallowed its pride, ditched EFTA and made several applications for EU membership. By 1976 the IMF had to bail the bankrupt British state out with massive loans (just as the US had to bail them out in the late 1940s) - but this is not something people like you would learn about.

When it comes to "failed states", therefore, it's no wonder you want to deflect attention by projecting the astounding British failure on to the EU.

Oh OH! Russia, France, Turkey and.... Portugal.

maryishere · 12-10-2016 10:06PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Reality check: No country in world history has lost as much power in the past 100 years as your beloved Britain has,.

Nobody was talking about what "country in world history has lost as much power in the past 100 years". And its not my beloved Britain, I am Irish and have an Irish passport. However the Britain you despise and were brought up to hate is still a G7 member and the 5th or 6th biggest economy in the world, and in the past 100 years have helped shelter us in 2 world wars and the cold war. The side you supported lost the referendum; get over it.

maryishere · 12-10-2016 10:13PM

Deleted User wrote: »

No country in world history has lost as much power in the past 100 years as your beloved Britain has,

Argentina? See the article "A century of decline One hundred years ago Argentina was the future. What went wrong?" in the Economist.

Quote:" The country(Argentina) ranked among the ten richest in the world, after the likes of Australia, Britain and the United States, but ahead of France, Germany and Italy. Its income per head was 92% of the average of 16 rich economies. From this vantage point, it looked down its nose at its neighbours: Brazil’s population was less than a quarter as well-off.

It never got better than this. Although Argentina has had periods of robust growth in the past century—not least during the commodity boom of the past ten years—and its people remain wealthier than most Latin Americans, its standing as one of the world’s most vibrant economies is a distant memory (see chart 1). Its income per head is now 43% of those same 16 rich economies; it trails Chile and Uruguay in its own back yard.

The political symptoms of decline are also clear. If Argentina appeared to enjoy stability in the pre-war era, its history since then has been marked by a succession of military coups. The first came in 1930; others followed in 1943, 1955, 1962, 1966 and 1976. The election of 1989 marked the first time in more than 60 years that a civilian president had handed power to an elected successor."

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21596582-one-hundred-years-ago-argentina-was-future-what-went-wrong-century-decline

12-10-2016 10:14PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Oh OH! Russia, France, Turkey and.... Portugal.

Time to go up to your bedroom and look at all those red bits on your map of the British Empire (no doubt next to your portrait of Mrs Thatcher).

It's entertaining that you're contending the Turks, French, Portuguese and Russians lost as much as the British Empire has done (you do know Russia is not near as big as it looks, and India, Australia etc are much bigger in reality?)

maryishere · 12-10-2016 10:21PM

Its ability to establish infrastructure, legal systems etc in such successful countries as Australia, US, Canada, New Zealand, Singapore etc has been one of their strengths. Shure where else would we Irish have been able or wanted to emigrate to? Mongolia?

First Up · 12-10-2016 10:21PM

maryishere wrote:

Nobody was talking about what "country in world history has lost as much power in the past 100 years". And its not my beloved Britain, I am Irish and have an Irish passport. However the Britain you despise and were brought up to hate is still a G7 member and the 5th or 6th biggest economy in the world, and in the past 100 years have helped shelter us in 2 world wars and the cold war. The side you supported lost the referendum; get over it.

I can't speak for others but I am as much an admirer of what Britain has contributed to the world as anyone. And I have a grandfather buried in his British army uniform from one of those wars.

That is why I am sad to see how far that country has fallen. I am also sad to see the fantasy land predictions about Brexit that has turned the country that twice saved Europe into a bitter and fearful backwater.

Britain has never quite gotten over the fact that a country it twice defeated is now a far superior power. That is at the root of this, be in no doubt.

Alas they are going to learn that the world has changed, and not in their favour.

12-10-2016 10:24PM

maryishere wrote: »

Argentina? See the article "A century of decline One hundred years ago Argentina was the future. What went wrong?" in the Economist.

Quote:" The country(Argentina) ranked among the ten richest in the world, after the likes of Australia, Britain and the United States, but ahead of France, Germany and Italy. Its income per head was 92% of the average of 16 rich economies. From this vantage point, it looked down its nose at its neighbours: Brazil’s population was less than a quarter as well-off.

It never got better than this. Although Argentina has had periods of robust growth in the past century—not least during the commodity boom of the past ten years—and its people remain wealthier than most Latin Americans, its standing as one of the world’s most vibrant economies is a distant memory (see chart 1). Its income per head is now 43% of those same 16 rich economies; it trails Chile and Uruguay in its own back yard.

The political symptoms of decline are also clear. If Argentina appeared to enjoy stability in the pre-war era, its history since then has been marked by a succession of military coups. The first came in 1930; others followed in 1943, 1955, 1962, 1966 and 1976. The election of 1989 marked the first time in more than 60 years that a civilian president had handed power to an elected successor."

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21596582-one-hundred-years-ago-argentina-was-future-what-went-wrong-century-decline

Nah, Argentina has not lost as much of its power in the past 100 years as Britain has. Unless there was some top-secret Argentine Empire covering 25% of planet earth, it's a bit silly to compare Argentina's loss with Britain's loss.

Capt'n Midnight · 12-10-2016 10:27PM

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37627308 Just wow on the little englander delusions.

They are expecting Poland to abandon the right of it's citizens to work in the UK for a small slice of up to £5Bn they might pay into the EU.

Yesterday http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37622842 Poland cancelled a $3.5bn helicopter deal.

"To fall back immediately on WTO (World Trade Organisation) rules would risk an economic shock and certainly an economic downturn given the high degree of trade integration at the moment between Britain and the EU."

No Shít, Sherlock.

Maybe they'll realise that all the EU needs to do is draw out the negotiations until the UK has to yield.

12-10-2016 10:33PM

maryishere wrote: »

Nobody was talking about what "country in world history has lost as much power in the past 100 years".

Of course you weren't because that answer is clearly Britain, and you wouldn't like to hear it. Next time you decide to throw stones at the supposedly "failed" EU state, just bear in mind that we are all aware that the very British state you're glorifying here as a "success" in contrast to the EU is the state which has lost more of its power in the past 100 years than any other state in world history.

catbear · 12-10-2016 10:36PM

First Up wrote: »

I can't speak for others but I am as much an admirer of what Britain has contributed to the world as anyone. And I have a grandfather buried in his British army uniform from one of those wars.

So my grandfather might have sent to his grave if it was our war of independence he died in.

The colonizer divides and conquers, Ireland was their test ground for empire and we're still paying a price for that on a divided island.

Nothing to admire in that. At least the Germans face their Nazi past.

maryishere · 12-10-2016 11:17PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Nah, Argentina has not lost as much of its power in the past 100 years as Britain has. Unless there was some top-secret Argentine Empire covering 25% of planet earth, .

You are confusing power with empire. What the average British person cares most about is the standard of living / quality of life that they and their families have i.e. the economy, NHS, immigration etc. Not how much power their empire has ffs! Being a G7 power and being able to disengage successfully from Australia, New Zealand, Canada, India,New Zealand, Singapore etc and grant those countries Independence and seeing them succeed on the world stage (having had a grounding in British law, British infrastructure etc ) is a sign of success, not of failure.

How many Irish people do you know who have emigrated to Argentina in the past 100 years?

FrancieBrady · 12-10-2016 11:33PM

maryishere wrote: »

You are confusing power with empire. What the average British person cares most about is the standard of living / quality of life that they and their families have i.e. the economy, NHS, immigration etc. Not how much power their empire has ffs! Being a G7 power and being able to disengage successfully from Australia, New Zealand, Canada, India,New Zealand, Singapore etc and grant those countries Independence and seeing them succeed on the world stage (having had a grounding in British law, British infrastructure etc ) is a sign of success, not of failure.

How many Irish people do you know who have emigrated to Argentina in the past 100 years?

The average British person who voted for Brexit was not voting for economic stability, that is just totally in the face of all the reasons we know they voted for it.
Anybody voting Remain was voting for economic prosperity.

catbear · 12-10-2016 11:38PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The average British person who voted for Brexit was not voting for economic stability, that is just totally in the face of all the reasons we know they voted for it.
Anybody voting Remain was voting for economic prosperity.

The average leave voter appeared to confuse sovereignty with power.

Junkyard Tom · 12-10-2016 11:54PM

maryishere wrote: »

Being a G7 power and being able to disengage successfully from Australia, New Zealand, Canada, India,New Zealand, Singapore etc and grant those countries Independence and seeing them succeed on the world stage (having had a grounding in British law, British infrastructure etc ) is a sign of success, not of failure.

What about Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Brunei, Burma, Sierra Leone and Ireland?

Why didn't you include Ireland? Because they were booted out by brave men who stood up to their bullshit and inspired others across the globe to do likewise?

"If we lose Ireland we have lost the Empire," Chief of the Imperial General Staff and Field-Marshal Sir Henry Wilson on 30 March 1921.

"If you tell your Empire in India, in Egypt, and all over the world that you have not got the men, the money, the pluck, the inclination and the backing to restore order in a country within twenty miles of your own shore, you may as well begin to abandon the attempt to make British rule prevail throughout the Empire at all."

Edward Carson

maryishere · 12-10-2016 11:57PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The average British person who voted for Brexit was not voting for economic stability, that is just totally in the face of all the reasons we know they voted for it.
Anybody voting Remain was voting for economic prosperity.

Most of those who voted to remain in the dreaded EU also thought the UK should have surrendered the pound and adopted the euro 12 or 14 years ago. Those who wanted to retain the £ were proved right, and they will be proved right in time again. May be a turbulent few years, mind, if the EU makes life difficult for all.

Who want to be member of a club where you are punished for leaving, having been its second biggest net contributor? F*** the EU. Its bankers F***ed us.
As the Eagles would sing "You can check out any time you want, but you can never leave"

maryishere · 13-10-2016 12:04AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Why didn't you include Ireland?

Because it was not meant as a complete list. We invited the British along with the IMF and EU to bail us out only a few years ago, when nobody else would lend us any more money.
Emigration has been very high over the past century from Ireland to other countries which were red on the map 100 years ago.

I also did not include Ireland as Gay Byrne said we should hand the country back to the British, with a note of apology.

Junkyard Tom · 13-10-2016 12:04AM

maryishere wrote: »

Its bankers F***ed us.

Including the British banks who stood to lose much more than they 'loaned' us if we'd have not had such spineless goons running the show. Even the IMF supported Ireland forcing concessions from bondholders.

UK Votes to leave EU

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