UK Votes to leave EU

youreadthat · 09-10-2016 02:48PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Every council area in Scotland voted to stay in the EU

People didn't vote on behalf of Scotland, they voted for themselves, and nearly as many voted out the EU as voted for independence.

maryishere · 09-10-2016 04:07PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

As an Irish man living in Britain I have met a total of zero people with views like Mary's. In other words I don't buy it.

lol. You need to get out more and widen your circle. I have met people both from UK and Ireland from all backgrounds and views. I feel sorry for you.

steddyeddy · 09-10-2016 04:41PM

maryishere wrote: »

lol. You need to get out more and widen your circle. I have met people both from UK and Ireland from all backgrounds and views. I feel sorry for you.

Lived all over the world mate. Your reply is ironic considering Brexiters have cut off their access to a lot of the world.

maryishere · 09-10-2016 04:47PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Lived all over the world mate.

You still need to get out more and widen your circle than the pubs of Cricklewood, mate. Time you met someone with views different to your own. Or maybe you project such a hard man image that nobody will tell you their views to your face. Poor you.

steddyeddy wrote: »

Your reply is ironic considering Brexiters have cut off their access to a lot of the world.

Actually they have access to a lot of the world that you can only dream about.

tomwaterford · 09-10-2016 05:02PM

maryishere wrote: »

Actually they have access to a lot of the world that you can only dream about.

Such as where???

Where in the post brexit world can a British person go that an Irish person cant

>>awaits more comedy gold <<

steddyeddy · 09-10-2016 05:03PM

maryishere wrote: »

You still need to get out more and widen your circle than the pubs of Cricklewood, mate. Time you met someone with views different to your own. Or maybe you project such a hard man image that nobody will tell you their views to your face. Poor you.

Actually they have access to a lot of the world that you can only dream about.

Well great. Where would I find people with your views? I lived in Britain for a bit now.

The last sentence is true. They seem to have access to dreamland alright.

Capt'n Midnight · 09-10-2016 05:22PM

maryishere wrote: »

Actually they have access to a lot of the world that you can only dream about.

https://www.passportindex.org/byRank.php

UK passport will only get you into 3 more countries without a visa than an Irish one would. IIRC Apart from the USA where we overstay , the differences are mostly in Southern East Africa and in those cases you can just buy the VISA when you arrive.

GreenFolder2 · 09-10-2016 05:39PM

Actually there are US visas like aspects of the J1 program that are open to Irish people but not British, largely because of the Irish American sway over politics in the USA.

Both counties have the same visa waiver access and Ireland has local pre-clearance and land more or less as domestic flight.

The only extra countries are a few small African nations and that would largely be down to Ireland never having negotiated visa free reciprocal programmes. Usually it's a case of access is granted if you allow similar access.

Given the UK's new drawbridge-up approach, it's likely to lose visa free access to some countries if it cuts agreements.

Ireland will also retain full, unhindered access to travel,live and work in the EU's 26 other member states. The UK is walking away from that. So, in future you can look forward to applying for residency permits and work permits as you'll likely only get 90 days visa waiver access similar to the USA.

That loss of ability to just decide to live and work elsewhere in the EU is a huge downside of Brexit for anyone who does want to travel. It will also mean only the wealthy will be able to retire to Spain as they'll impose standard means tests. You'll need private health insurance, be able to prove independent means and so on.

Enzokk · 09-10-2016 07:23PM

maryishere wrote: »

No it is not as the UK spends so much on German cars, French wine, Spanish and continental holidays etc. Spain for example has 26% unemployment - that would be a lot worse but for the fact the UK are the biggest group (by passport / nationality) of foreign tourists to Spain. The economy in Spain is bad enough as it is, it would be dire without the UK, or if the UK was made "to suffer economically."
The UK will be free to do their own trade deals with the rest of the world ; because of that they will succeed, not unlike how Singapore has.

Ah yes, the thinking that the world depends on the UK so the world should bow down to their demands. Where would the UK holiday goers go to for their pub in the sun if not somewhere in the EU?

What cars will those that buy BMWs and Mercs buy if they are "too expensive"? I guess people will buy products from the new world that will replace French wine and cheese, because we know that its better from there, apparently.

maryishere wrote: »

It is finished anyway. Too much unsustainable debt.

I guess this is futile, but you are saying they should give the UK a deal because without the UK the EU is doomed, yet the EU is doomed anyway because of the debt in the EU. So why would a doomed institution give the UK a free ride?

greendom wrote: »

For the preservation of the organisation, the EU has no choice but to make a hard Brexit tough on the UK.

I don't think the EU will be out to squeeze the UK, but I doubt there will be any favours given. The deal will be fair for both sides, which is not what the UK want. They want to be special but the reality is that they just aren't that special in the grand scheme of things.

catbear · 09-10-2016 07:42PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Ah yes, the thinking that the world depends on the UK so the world should bow down to their demands. Where would the UK holiday goers go to for their pub in the sun if not somewhere in the EU?

What cars will those that buy BMWs and Mercs buy if they are "too expensive"? I guess people will buy products from the new world that will replace French wine and cheese, because we know that its better from there, apparently

The UK can go the secondhand jap car route that New Zealand followed.

And the three pubs in Spain that all the brits go to can be moved to Gibraltar and the British bases in Cyprus, holidays could be rationed out on a lottery system. See, getting the sun without ever having to set foot in silly foreigner land.

SeanW · 10-10-2016 10:01AM

They don't need "second hand jap(anese) cars", they have a Toyota manufacturing plant in Derbyshire and a Toyota engine construction plant in Deeside.

Toyota cars are better than most German cars anyway, and certainly better than French cars. The EU would be doing the UK a favour by forcing them to go to "WTO rules" on car imports.

LordSutch · 10-10-2016 10:07AM

Teesside?

Zubeneschamali · 10-10-2016 10:08AM

the evasion_kid wrote: »

Bit of an oul hotel California this EU...

No-one is saying that the UK can never leave. Article 50 was added by the Lisbon treaty expressly to codify how a country can leave. But no-one has to hold the door open for them or fetch their coat.

Anita Blow · 10-10-2016 10:11AM

You may want to read the letter Toyota UK issued to their employees in Deeside so

Toyota and Unite have said that from the business perspective, we firmly believe that continued British membership of the EU is best for our operations and our long term competitiveness. We believe we will face significant business challenges as a result of a decision to withdraw from the EU
[font=PT Sans, sans-serif]Why do we believe this? [/font]
Put simply our Burnaston and Deeside plants were built in the UK to make cars and engines for Europe.

Therefore, open and free access to the European Market is of critical importance for our UK manufacturing business. Nearly 90% of all our vehicles are exported and 75% of all our vehicle production is made for our customers in the EU.

If the UK leaves the EU, we think it unlikely that the UK can keep the current trading arrangements where there are no tariffs or duties ; and this would mean we would have to pay duties on parts and cars. This could be as much as 10% for cars, leading to either huge cost reduction challenges for us or more expensive cars for our customers, with a negative impact on our sales.

New trade agreements may be negotiated but these take many years to agree and the outcome is also uncertain, however we do know that they cannot be better than what we have now, 0% for our main European markets.

Zubeneschamali · 10-10-2016 10:11AM

SeanW wrote: »

The EU would be doing the UK a favour by forcing them to go to "WTO rules" on car imports.

Great, everyone is happy!

catbear · 10-10-2016 10:46AM

SeanW wrote: »

They don't need "second hand jap(anese) cars", they have a Toyota manufacturing plant in Derbyshire and a Toyota engine construction plant in Deeside.

That production is for the UK and EU market. At best they could end up like Thailand that get older model Toyota assembly lines just for the domestic market.

kunst nugget · 10-10-2016 10:50AM

Out of curiosity, what's going to happen to cars for the Irish Market? Is there any chance that we are going to lose out because we drive on the left like the UK and end up being hit with higher prices for cars because of Brexit?

catbear · 10-10-2016 11:03AM

kunst nugget wrote: »

Out of curiosity, what's going to happen to cars for the Irish Market? Is there any chance that we are going to lose out because we drive on the left like the UK and end up being hit with higher prices for cars because of Brexit?

Yeah, that's a concern. Cyprus and Malta would also be affected. As collectively we're such a small part of the EU market there may be a case that Jap imports of new models would avoid EU tariffs.

It's probably too late to switch sides of the road like Sweden did in the 50s when there were a lot less cars.

seamus · 10-10-2016 11:06AM

SeanW wrote: »

They don't need "second hand jap(anese) cars", they have a Toyota manufacturing plant in Derbyshire and a Toyota engine construction plant in Deeside.

The problem here is that you can't bolster your domestic economy selling stuff to yourself.

The vast majority of raw materials for those Toyota plants comes from outside of the UK.

A weakened pound means the cost of those raw materials goes up, which means the base price of a vehicle has to increase.

This leads to inflation internally - Sterling will continue to weaken and the cost of goods in the UK will increase.

Then you throw trade tariffs on top of an already more expensive product and the result is something that becomes uneconomical to export.

So the likes of Toyota pull out and move their manufacturing to a country that makes sense, like Germany.

Toyota's just the example here - because the UK has an import imbalance, this will become an issue across most industries in the UK.

10-10-2016 11:16AM

I'm just getting around to reading this reality check article from The Irish Times last Monday:

Why Brexit will be Margaret Thatcher’s revenge

'But the irony is that, contrary to the hopes of many Brexiteers, leaving the EU will expose Britain to more globalisation, not less; and in a more competitive and harsher world it will be the “left behind”, those most likely to have voted for Brexit, who will suffer the most...'

CMOTDibbler · 10-10-2016 11:29AM

kunst nugget wrote: »

Out of curiosity, what's going to happen to cars for the Irish Market? Is there any chance that we are going to lose out because we drive on the left like the UK and end up being hit with higher prices for cars because of Brexit?

There may be less right hand drive cars produced because of decreased demand due to higher prices in the UK. But that reduction would be marginal as cars would still be required for the UK market and the higher ticket items like BMW and Merc would still have a demand. Approximately two million cars are registered each year in the UK. That could drop to half and it's still a lot of cars.

The price increases would hit the UK only. We don't have sterling as our currency, so there's no price impact from the loss of value of sterling and consequent increase in cost of imports. The only impact would be on the cost of cars produced in the UK and sold here. That's the factor that could put an end to UK car production since it would be cheaper to source cars from mainland Europe and that would make it uneconomic to keep producing cars there.

Edit: Just read that Toyota letter to staff and they put it very well. Between the lines it reads like a horror story. Higher import costs, resulting in higher prices and so lower wages to maintain competitevness.

steddyeddy · 10-10-2016 11:34AM

This gets better. The "take back control" idea is really starting to show it's weaknesses.

The Independent, Guardian and Daily Mail are saying the the UK's immigration controls may shift to Ireland after withdrawal. Charles Flanagan is open to the idea but states that it will have to be agreed on by the other 26 EU member states.

So taking back control looks like handing your immigration controls to Ireland and those controls being agreed upon by the EU.

The UK is seeking to shift frontline immigration controls to Ireland's ports and airports to avoid having to introduce a "hard border" between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as part of post-Brexit immigration controls.

James Brokenshire, the Northern Ireland secretary, reportedly said there was a “high level of collaboration on a joint programme of work” between London and Dublin to control immigration, with a main focus on strengthening the common travel area (CTA) - the unique arrangement that allows full freedom of movement between people from Ireland and the UK. The news appears to contradict a Leave campaign claim that EU withdrawal would help the UK "take back our borders" as the move will give greater control of British borders to the Irish government.

Northern Ireland shares the UK’s largest land border with another EU country – the Republic of Ireland, and there have been fears that measures would have to be imposed on the 300-mile border in order to control immigration after leaving the EU, which could undermine the 1998 Good Friday Agreement peace deal.

“We have put in place a range of measures to further combat illegal migration working closely with the Irish government. Our focus is to strengthen the external border of the common travel area [CTA], building on the strong collaboration with our Irish partners," he said.

“We are already working closely with the Irish government and other members of the common travel area to prevent people from seeking to evade UK immigration controls from entering via another part of the CTA. There is a high level of collaboration on a joint programme of work."

This is a modal window.

But Mr Brokenshire claimed Brexit would not destabalise the peace settlement set out in the Belfast agreement, saying: “Political stability and prosperity in Northern Ireland has been hard fought over many decades, and we will not do anything to undermine it.

“There is no reason to think that the outcome of the referendum will do anything to undermine the rock-solid commitment of the UK government and the people of Northern Ireland to the settlement set out in the Belfast agreement and its successors.”

Ireland's foreign minister, Charles Flanagan, is said to have welcomed Mr Brokenshire's plans, agreeing that the sharing of information was "vital" in ensuring that "any adverse impact is minimised".

But he also urged that upgrading immigration controls between the UK and Northern Ireland would have to be negotiated alongside the other EU countries, stressing that the peace process in Northern Ireland must not be undermined as a result.

According to The Guardian, Mr Flanagan said: "I caution that this will be a decision not just by the UK or Irish governments but ultimately also by the 27 EU states.

steddyeddy · 10-10-2016 11:48AM

The "they buy are cars argument is next to fall I think.

The cars are manufactured in the UK in part because of the UK's access to the single market. Most car parts are imported from outside the UK. The drop in the pound as well as the possibility of tariffs means that the cost of import will go up significantly.

If the UK leaves the single market, which is likely after May's announcement, then tariffs will also be applied to products entering the single market, including cars.

So if the cost of manufacturing the cars in the UK and the cost of exporting them to the EU rises significantly do we really think that we can say the UK has a strong bargaining chip because the EU buy their cars? Only if the cars continue to be made there.

It makes as much sense as say Sunderland, an area that is held aloft by Japanese car manufacturers voting to reduce immigrants.

tomwaterford · 10-10-2016 12:16PM

kunst nugget wrote: »

Out of curiosity, what's going to happen to cars for the Irish Market? Is there any chance that we are going to lose out because we drive on the left like the UK and end up being hit with higher prices for cars because of Brexit?

I'd say that is a reasonable conclusion

Though perhaps their will be specialised garages converting right to left hand drive cars.....like Polish used do when they came here first buying cars converting them back across
.

From. Talking to Polish mechanics in work at the time....remember them telling me it wasn't as big job as you'd imagine

Chips Lovell · 10-10-2016 12:19PM

Could we not just bite the bullet and start driving on the right side of the road like normal people?

Kotek Besar · 10-10-2016 12:25PM

I read this on a UK forum the other day. Wish I could have liked the post a thousand times:

We are riding on the coattails of being a global empire and colonising the weaker people in the world. It's ironic that the less educated and elderly in this county have voted to leave the group that rescued us from being what we are - a tiny island in the world with poorly educated people with nothing to offer the world.

If you believe otherwise, you've not traveled enough.

(I'm English, btw).

CMOTDibbler · 10-10-2016 12:32PM

tomwaterford wrote: »

I'd say that is a reasonable conclusion

Though perhaps their will be specialised garages converting right to left hand drive cars.....like Polish used do when they came here first buying cars converting them back across

As I said above, I don't think it's a reasonable conclusion at all. The UK would have to stop buying cars completely and they're not the only jurisdiction that drives on the left.

But the UK stopping buying new cars completely is not feasible. The lowest figure in any year in the last 12 was just under two million. Last year they bought over two and a half million. Price increases may depress the market and it may cause people to buy lower value cars, but it won't come to a crashing halt either.

Most of our new cars come directly from the European manufacturers. The models we get, generally differ in specification from the same models sold in the UK. Anyone who has imported a car from the UK will tell you this.

First Up · 10-10-2016 12:34PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

As I said above, I don't think it's a reasonable conclusion at all. The UK would have to stop buying cars completely and they're not the only jurisdiction that drives on the left.

But the UK stopping buying new cars completely is not feasible. The lowest figure in any year in the last 12 was just under two million. Last year they bought over two and a half million. Price increases may depress the market and it may cause people to buy lower value cars, but it won't come to a crashing halt either.

Most of our new cars come directly from the European manufacturers. The models we get, generally differ in specification from the same models sold in the UK. Anyone who has imported a car from the UK will tell you this.

Japan drives on the left.

VinLieger · 10-10-2016 12:40PM

First Up wrote: »

Japan drives on the left.

As do Australia, New Zealand, India, Pakistan, South Africa, Malaysia and Thailand to name but a small few

Kotek Besar · 10-10-2016 12:41PM

VinLieger wrote: »

As do Australia, New Zealand, India, Pakistan, South Africa, Malaysia and Thailand to name but a small few

Singapore, Hong Kong, Cyprus, Malta..

UK Votes to leave EU

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