2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

RobertKK wrote: »

Unemployment rate in Ireland fell as some of it was down to people who gave up and emigrated.
Does that mean when one looks at the Irish unemployment rate we should should why some of it is down?
In the US,the real figure is higher than the figure given as explained in the link in my previous post.

And as I've just explained, it's still lower under the Obama administration even allowing for that. Are you suggesting that the U.S. is experiencing mass emigration?

RobertKK wrote: »

I suggested nothing, I implied Irish figures are not even as clear as they seem - did not say US had emigration.

It is a poor return given the sheer amount of Quantitative Easing by the Fed and with the national debt of the US doubling under Obama to $20,000,000,000,000.
Job participation still lower than before the recession and this is probably one reason the industrial/manufacturing states in the US are showing signs of swinging to Trump.
It was also shown in recent polls that in states that have a higher manufacturing job base, that Obama's popularity is lower than the national average.

But you did suggest that the percentage unemployed was at a low. Which it cannot be, even if you opt to buy into your man's figures. And why bring up emigration if it has no influence on the U.S. figures? It's as if you've been caught out on an ill-considered bit of spin. Job participation is higher under Obama than when he took office. Those are the stark facts.

Trump has no swing, he's losing this election by a landslide. We all know this to be the case.

Rightwing wrote: »

Rubbish.

There are a few issues here, underemployment and people don't even look for work, hence they are not included.

Why on Earth would you include people that don't want a job in unemployment figures? Why would you include people that have jobs in unemployment figures? There is a separate measure that does include those that are underemployed and it has fallen dramatically and continues to fall under Obama.

RobertKK wrote: »

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/19/unemployment-rate-wrong_n_3619152.html

Job participation rate is better indicator says the person who use to calculate the unemployment rate.
It is easier to have lower unemployment if a lower percentage of the population is looking for work where some have simply given up trying to find employment.

Labour force participation is a terrible way to measure unemployment, unless you think people shouldn't go to college or retire. That he has to work for a fringe think tank like the Mercatus Center says a lot about how valued his opinion is these days.

RobertKK wrote: »

It can be when the population is increasing.

Polls show Trump is leading in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, with Michigan tightening and North Carolina moving to Trump. New Hampshire is tight.
The New York Times says the election could be down to one state - Pennsylvania.

The unemployed percentage remains the same value irrespective of population growth. It has fallen alongside population growth under Obama. A lower percentage is still a lower percentage regardless of population growth.

Trump is ahead in states that vote Republican. He's not showing any sign of taking the swing states he needs to stop a Hillary landslide. And she's not even a popular candidate. He has simply no momentum.

RobertKK wrote: »

Unemployment figure has fallen as the job participation percentage remains higher than before the recession - due to population growth and less of the population working.

Once again - using your man's calculation, we are still in a scenario where more of the population are working than under Bush. Even assuming there was a 0% difference between the two models under Bush (which would be a rather silly position to take). Your argument has no validity.

RobertKK wrote: »

Maybe they pay him well and he doesn't have to depend on food stamps...

It says a lower percentage of the workforce are in employment.
Take that into account with near record poverty levels and near record levels on food stamps, it suggests the unemployment % does not tell the full story.

U.S. household income posted a record increase in 2015 after years of stagnation, suggesting the recovery from the Great Recession was finally lifting ordinary citizens who had been largely left behind.

The Census Bureau said on Tuesday that median household income surged 5.2 percent last year to $56,500, the highest since 2007, in large part due to solid employment gains. The jump was the biggest since record keeping began in 1968.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-poverty-idUSKCN11J1PP

Suryavarman wrote: »

So you think people shouldn't go to college or retire then?

The poverty rate hasn't been as low as it is now in 8 years. It is nowhere near record levels. You might want to read up on what you're talking about instead of wasting everyone's time making ignorant statements.

So people weren't going to college or retirng before the recession?

RobertKK wrote: »

He is showing signs of taking swings states.

Have you not been watching CNN and the polls?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/14/dont-look-now-donald-trump-has-all-the-momentum-in-the-2016-race/

I've been keeping a close eye on http://www.realclearpolitics.com. I'm also aware that the debates will be dreadful for Trump, and bump Hillary back up into her comfortable lead. He's going nowhere.

alastair wrote: »

I've been keeping a close eye on http://www.realclearpolitics.com. I'm also aware that the debates will be dreadful for Trump, and bump Hillary back up into her comfortable lead. He's going nowhere.

How can you say the debates will be terrible for Trump?
That is just guessing.

I never believed the UK would vote for Brexit, they did, some have the same mind think towards the US election, that Trump can't win.

alastair wrote: »

Which are up, even if we use your man's calculation.

The San Diego Union Tribune - September 14th 2016.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/sd-ed-california-capital-american-poverty-20160914-story.html

Really good U.S. economic news has been rare the past decade. While unemployment has dropped steadily from its Great Recession peak of 10 percent in 2009 to roughly 5 percent for the past year, a measure that evaluates how many people want to work full time but can’t find such jobs shows the rate to be about 10 percent for the past year. “Underemployment” seems the new normal. Fewer adults are working than at any time since the 1970s, when more married women stayed home.That’s why so many people were elated by the U.S. Census Bureau report Tuesday showing that 2015 was the best year for median-income wage gains for middle-income and lower-income households in decades. Even with the 5.2 percent increase in median wages, wages are still below what they were before the Great Recession hit, once adjusted for inflation. But the 2015 gain was bigger than expected, and the trends are strong. The American Dream looks more resilient than many feared.
Which brings us to California, where the good news on wage growth was tempered by a troubling reality. Census Bureau statistics released Tuesday showed that overall U.S. poverty was at its lowest level since 2008. But an alternative measure that includes the cost of living shows California has the highest poverty rate of any state. Nearly 8 million residents — 20.6 percent of the total population — are stuck in financial desperation. The biggest reason is the extreme cost of housing.

Cost of living raising poverty rates.

alastair wrote: »

Shall we count the ways?
Ignorance
Lack of articulation
No grasp of policy
Inconsistency
Record of lies

The guy is a bluffer, and the debates are designed to expose bluffers. He is going to embarrass himself, with nowhere to hide. Hillary doesn't even need to do well. She can simply watch as he shoots himself in the foot.

Remember when Trump called half of Hillary Clinton's voters as being in a 'basket of deplorables'?
Oh yeah, Trump was not that stupid to attack Clinton's voters. She was towards Trump voters.

Grasp of policy, Hillary in Libya?
Convinced Obama it was the right thing, then laughed at Gaddafi being murdered.
Her reset button that she gave Sergei Lavrov?
The Bush administration had better relations with Russia.

Arming groups who fought Gaddafi and Assad and those weapons ending up with terrorists?
Then both turning into ISIS havens and giving some middle Eastern countries and Europe a migrant crisis.

Supporting the terrorist Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt which the Egyptian military had a coup to remove as they were attacking the Christians and wanted strict Sharia law.

Friends with an accused war criminal - Paul Kagame.

She has more Wikileaks information to come.

She overheated, before having to admit she was going around with pneumonia.

Emails destroyed after a congress subpoena, and phones smashed up/missing.



Oh Yeah, Hillary is so much better than Trump.

food for thought,

In the last 10 years the US has seen a decreasing number of middle aged people who could work in the economy and an increasing number of people reaching retirement age

http://populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2008/

you can jump between years at your leisure.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/183995/us-college-enrollment-and-projections-in-public-and-private-institutions/

During all of this, there was a spike in higher level enrollment after the crash, which has unfortunately resulted in a student loan bubble the effects of which will be felt for a while. I don't know off hand if the white house directly changed drastically any policies that were in place that weren't business as usual in higher education/student loans.

The correlation *may* suggest, that there has been a decrease in the working age population and a decrease in those seeking employment who were instead accessing retirement and higher education. And several million of those who engaged in for-profit education, like ITT Tech, Trump University, and Corinthian Colleges, have found that they have been underemployed, sometimes for years, with nothing to show for it unfortunately.

By 2028, about the time trump is making these specific promises (translation: a team of GOP analysts are making this promise) the working age population will have increased in size due to birth rates seen in the 1990s and - one would have to assume, continued immigration (but not of those dastardly a-rabs). So they might be able to get part way to this number, but then again, so could anyone as a matter of just letting the economy run under its own forces.

The problem is these jobs will come from coal and fracking and oil - which aside from devastating the Appalachians in one hand, creating a nationwide seismological crisis in the other, and currently experiencing it's 3rd major industrial disaster THIS WEEK (not including the Dakota Access Pipeline issue and many smaller scale spills), these seem like incredibly unwise areas to expand into. Elsewhere innovators are working on solar roadways and the 'hippie' windmill experiments of the 90s and 00s have now become ubiquitous sources of energy, fusion research is actually making advancements, and with the amount of energy available in the desert there is no reason we couldn't tap vast amounts of available solar energy all of which creating jobs and most of which are already coming out of the private sector without nanny-state levels of government involvement.

Overheal wrote: »

Just stupid enough to suggest her assassination.

http://nypost.com/2016/09/16/trump-hillarys-secret-service-should-have-guns-taken-away/
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/trump-appears-encourage-gun-rights-advocates-shoot-hillary-article-1.2744550



http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/05/politics/donald-trump-libya/index.html
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/01/trump-on-libya-then-and-now.php


“Well, look, I don’t know him, and I know nothing about him, really. I just think if we got along with Russia, that’s not a bad thing,” Trump said. “The Democrats try to say I like him somehow. I don’t like him. I don’t dislike him. I don’t have any feelings one way or the other. And it’s not going to matter what he says about me. If he says good things or bad things about me, I’m going to make great deals for our country.” He added, “They make it like he’s my best friend, I don’t know him.”

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-putin-yes-it-s-really-a-thing
http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/29/news/donald-trump-russia-ties/index.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-trumps-financial-ties-to-russia-and-his-unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-putin/2016/06/17/dbdcaac8-31a6-11e6-8ff7-7b6c1998b7a0_story.html



“Somebody else over there — I mean, these are the beneficiaries more so than us. They’re gonna have to do the fighting,” Trump said. “We can help them with airstrikes and lots of other things, but we have to get people to do some fighting. But regardless, we have to take out ISIS.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/05/trump-mideast-allies-bad-fighters-222727#ixzz4KWjhIXBz
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Friends?? Source please.

Assange has made no secret of bias against her.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/27/us/politics/assange-timed-wikileaks-release-of-democratic-emails-to-harm-hillary-clinton.html

And? It isn't contagious or anything? I had Pneumonia in July, it was a bitch. Aside from the extreme pain when I found out there wasn't a hole being punctured out of my lung, I wasn't bedridden but neither was I out jogging running for president. Elevated fatigue for sure.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2016-06-13/trump-accused-of-destroying-e-mail-evidence-in-suit-usa-today


As demonstrated, they're a pot and a kettle.

Trump made a valid point about Hillary to show her hypocrisy towards guns. Trump said it would be dangerous if the guns were removed from Hillary's secret service.
Which points out, she wants gun control but she still wants guns to protect herself.
btw I think the gun situation in the US is crazy given one can buy military grade weapons.
I had a row with US gun advocates on twitter a month or so ago, they were obsessed with their guns and believe they have a right to bear arms and if the government became overbearing that they had a right to use them, what surprised me was the amount of support these people had.
I can see what Trump is doing with guns, and with Hillary.

On Libya, Hillary had the information, Trump didn't. Hillary is the one who went in with her European allies and made things so bad that it is unbelievable it could have gotten so bad.

Remember in the 2012 debates and Obama laughed at Romney when it came to Russia, obviously his secretary of state was asleep on the job.
Friends with a war criminal.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/20/opinion/war-crimes-and-rwandan-realities.html

Mr. Kagame and his men orchestrated revenge killings. During the second half of 1994, at least 40,000 Hutus were killed inside Rwanda. Between October 1996 and May 1997, another 200,000 perished as they fled across Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Many died of hunger or disease or at the hands of RPF fighters and their Congolese rebel allies, whom a U.N. investigation accuses of crimes against humanity and possibly “acts of genocide.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/19/us/politics/rwanda-bill-hillary-clinton-foundation.html

Mr. Clinton and Mr. Kagame have met on each of Mr. Clinton’s six postpresidential trips to Rwanda, and Mr. Kagame is a regular at the Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting. At the 2009 session, Mr. Clinton presented him with the foundation’s Clinton Global Citizen Award, calling him a “brilliant man” who “freed the heart and the mind of his people.”
But on a geopolitical level, the foundation’s intertwining with Rwanda has become increasingly awkward as the United Nations, the State Department and members of Congress have accused the Kagame government of disregarding human rights, aiding armed rebels in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo and suppressing political opponents and the media, at times violently.
The Clinton-Kagame relationship may experience deeper strains if, as many here anticipate, Mr. Kagame allows the amending of Rwanda’s Constitution so he can run for a third seven-year term. That would happen in 2017, potentially the first year of a Hillary Rodham Clinton presidency.
Human rights advocates and opposition leaders argue that Mr. Clinton’s continuing embrace helps validate Mr. Kagame and buffers him from international pressure.
“Either he’s completely uninformed about what we know about Kagame or he’s in total denial,” said Filip Reyntjens, a Belgian scholar considered an authority on post-genocide Rwanda.

Assange has made no secrets, but the information released was truth given the Debbie Wasserman Schultz resignation.

The problem was not the pneumonia, it was the fact she wanted to keep it hidden before being found out, this during a week where she said she would be more forthcoming and open with the media.

alastair wrote: »

It took a while, but you finally got there.

It seems you read my post the way you read momentum in poll numbers.
You ignore it.