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trump becomes president 1000 euro at 25/1 on betfair

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    #92
    Charity10k
    Registered Users Posts: 35 ✭Charity10k


    The novelty of Trump is starting to wear off and people are wondering what his actual policies are rather than just reacting to soundbites and he is coming up short. It is not helping that he is changing his mind dramatically each week on important topics and pandering to the masses.

    I like the change in strategy from Cruz where instead of complaining about Trump doing little more than insult the other candidates he is just telling Trump to breathe and compose himself and he is very successfully making Trump look to be a petulant child who should be quiet when the adults are talking.

    A lot of polls are showing Hillary having a clear advantage over Trump if they go head to head but her lead is smaller against Cruz so the Republicans have to start considering the end game.

    To win the republican nomination Paddy Power gave him an 83% chance of winning on 29th February and yesterday they had him at 50%.


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    #93
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Charity10k wrote: »
    To win the republican nomination Paddy Power gave him an 83% chance of winning on 29th February and yesterday they had him at 50%.

    Powers have already paid out (100k) on him as the nomination a week or two ago (see previous page).

    The polls change from one day to the next, prefer instead very very simple logic here, in that the voters are still waiting on the (old promise) of 'change', which still hasn't happened, so they may assume that DT may be the ticket, regardless of what he says or does.

    Have to agree it's been a very poor performance overall from the Don, imagine where he'd be if he had his head screwed on properly, even up against every middle-left media outlet on the planet.

    Zuckerberg for 2020, yes?


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    #94
    aphex™
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭aphex™


    I've put money on Ryan and Romney on Betfair. I don't believe the Republican old guard will hand Trump the nomination at the convention, and will attempt to wheel in somebody more presidential at the last minute.

    Either way the odds might shorten on the guys above.

    Explainer:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TZ5oCW0JFw


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    #95
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    aphex™ wrote: »
    I've put money on Ryan and Romney on Betfair

    The Trump & Clinton machines seem to steamrolling ahead, looking like a 2 way horse race now, all others generally out of the picture.

    If he somehow doesn't get the nomination, he'll just go fully independent and complicate things for everyone.

    He just gave his 1st speech on Foreign Policy, seemed generally a surprisingly fairly plausible effort.

    Screen_Shot_2016_04_27_at_20_57_53.png


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    #96
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,138 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    If he somehow doesn't get the nomination, he'll just go fully independent and complicate things for everyone.

    If he does that, it's handing the presidency to Hillary and the democrats.

    Nobody voting democrat will jump ship to Trump. A not significant % of republicans will however pick Trump over Cruz. Crippling the republicans


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    #97
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Mellor wrote: »
    ...Crippling the republicans

    Indeed so, which is why it would be an unlikely option for them not to nominate, a self-destruct option, as such.

    Wouldn't take too much notice of polls btw, a greater indicator would be simply the offer of (any) change to the masses, and if there is enough mass movement for this desire^ for a change.

    Especially relevant is the lack of pay rises and fund slashing of the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP), which may see up to 1m loose out on their food stamps. Also the realisation that China will overtake, to become the worlds largest economy in 2017, something DT is playing on very well.

    A similar but singular logic (ignoring the polls), was applied to the UK GE, the idea then was that the masses would be so repulsed by Ed Miliband, there was going to be a ConMaj at 13/1, which there was.

    Again with the Brexit referendum, many are very undecided and it may boil down to simply whether or not the average Joe & Jane can be bothered by any extra hassle when flying out for their summer hols vs inbound immigration levels. So 50/50, not as polls/books indicate as 75/25.


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    #98
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,138 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    Indeed so, which is why it would be an unlikely option for them not to nominate, a self-destruct option, as such.

    Trump could say he'll go independent if he doesn't get it, hoping that they'll pick up on the implications. But if he failed to get it I don't think he would go rogue like that. He's a republican himself, he knows he'd only be crippling them, and knows that he hasn't a hope of the presidency if he can't get the nomination.


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    #99
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    from 100/1 to 25/1 in to 7/4 (2.75) today!

    2_75.png

    As mentioned back on Jan 23rd, still see a 40% (real) chance of DT winning outright.
    Sometimes you got to ignore all the noise of the pollsters and apply very simple logic.

    It's now down to a long, entertaining and occasionally nasty media campaign from now into November between the 'two' contenders.


    Separately, think next month's Brexit is 50:50, it really can go either way. WH usually has the best price on this event.


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    #100
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,026 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    from 100/1 to 25/1 in to 7/4 (2.75) today!

    2_75.png

    .

    11/4 aka 3.75, bookies these days unless its the case of someone falling asleep very rarely go that far outside of betfair as your below image will prove. :o

    I still expect Clinton will win as she appeals to a wider range of people and I don't pay as much attention to the social media twitter warriors as if you did then Bernie would have wrapped up the democrat nomination ages ago.

    I will like yourself suggest from a purely betting viewpoint, anything around the prices for Trump in is a bet as it will be be very easy to lock in a relatively stress free profit.


    I'd be astounded if we don't see in the next 5 months get close 1/1 on Clinton even if it is just brief.


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    #101
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,138 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    As mentioned back on Jan 23rd, still see a 40% (real) chance of DT winning outright.
    Sometimes you got to ignore all the noise of the pollsters and apply very simple logic.
    should you not have increased that? This was the point I was making back in January. If you thought he was 40% then, before he had won the primary, then surely you should be rating him a higher chance now that he his RP opponents have withdrawn


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    #102
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Mellor wrote: »
    should you not have increased that?

    Nope, 40% from the start of the year, and as of now and up until results day.

    Being self financed, he wasn't really going to throw in any towels and be out of pocket if the RP-Rep didn't somehow come about, could always have gone independent if desired, just another few hundred million dollars.

    To win is still an enormous battle, nothing much because of HC, but instead with the media. Nearly every media outlet on the planet (or more so their parent/holding group) has been, and will be taking potshots.

    Has it worked so far? You can draw your own conclusions, as a couple of books are only offer 2.75.

    Whether it's the $1trillion worth of student loans, cutting of foodstamps to up to 1m people, pay freezes & reductions, who knows. But perhaps it's fair to say again the desire for systematic change has never been greater - even more so than the time when 'change' was promised with those colourful A3 posters.

    Anyway the market will settle down now, he'll average a 2.4 price threshold. Foresee most of the Sanders voters also moving across, even if somewhat reluctantly at first.

    Next on the Novelty accumulator focus list is Brexit, Europop etc etc.


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    #103
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,138 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    Nope, 40% from the start of the year, and as of now and up until results day.
    There's almost* no way that can be true though. If needed to win the primary to win the presidency, then then winning the primary improves his chances of the presidency. Mathematically it has to, C is the product of A*B, up until the point the nomination is 100%.


    *almost, as running independent had he lost could give him the chances of being elected, but it doesn't obviously.



    The RP nom was availible at 1.05 a few hours ago. Felt way too big, will be gone soon. Laddies still 1/33


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    #104
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Yes it's not 'mathematically/technically' correct.
    The '40% outright chance of becoming President' is just a subjective view held from start of year, generally irrespective of conditions or events from then and will be held right until the end of event.

    There is more 'risk' than 'value' present in something like 1.05.
    33/1 type odds doesn't exist, nor have a place on my radar, good luck anyway.


    Today's 2016 Londonistan Mayoral Elections for Goldsmith looks generous at 12,
    very unlikely all the same Sadiq Khan may well have it wrapped up.


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    #105
    laura360
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 25 ✭laura360


    Has the odds gone down since yesterday?


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    #106
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    laura360 wrote: »
    Has the odds gone down since yesterday?

    Any value is long gone in this market

    rp:
    2016_05_05_14_14_rp.png

    win:
    2016_05_05_14_14_win.png


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    #107
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,026 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    If you have a spare million lying about that's as safe as 1/33 you will get to be honest. Only way he goes wrong if Paul Ryan does something and not only has he ruled himself out a zillion times, he is only 46 so when you consider the ages of people of the likes of Trump, Bernie and Clinton he has plenty of time on his side.

    Mary Fallin at 33/1 might be worth a small wager for the vice president as well.I think having a female vice president would be a canny idea to counter Hilary, Martinez and Haley would be impressive choices, but both have endorsed Cruz and Rubio and have been pretty harsh on Trump. Obviously things can change, but it would need a lot of work behind the scenes and both girls are pretty young may fear they may alienate a lot of their supporters if they got behind Trump. I wouldn't be shocked if both of them like Ryan are thinking about running in the next election anyhow so may want no part this time round.

    Fallin would be much easier work to get on the Trump bandwagon than the Haley and Martinez and as a strong conservative would definitely help in shutting up those who think Trump does not represent the core values of the republican and conservative movement. Trump praised her recently as well in an interview and suggested she would be a wonderful running mate.

    Not suggesting that Fallin should be fav, but I have seen worse 33/1 shots than her. :P


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    #108
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,138 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    Yes it's not 'mathematically/technically' correct.
    The '40% outright chance of becoming President' is just a subjective view held from start of year, generally irrespective of conditions or events from then and will be held right until the end of event.
    That fair enough in that case. I figured you meant it in a separate way like that. As you your on top of the numbers side of things.
    There is more 'risk' than 'value' present in something like 1.05.
    33/1 type odds doesn't exist, nor have a place on my radar, good luck anyway.
    I placed a sizeable bet on the RP at 1.05
    I think the risk is <5%. Not a high ROI, but also low variance.
    Today's 2016 Londonistan Mayoral Elections for Goldsmith looks generous at 12,
    very unlikely all the same Sadiq Khan may well have it wrapped up.
    I'd be having a laugh if I pretended to have a clue about that one.


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    #109
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,026 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Mellor wrote: »

    I placed a sizeable bet on the RP at 1.05
    I think the risk is <5%. Not a high ROI, but also low variance.
    .

    I simply don't have the balls or the bank to make a 1/20 shot worth my while, but its very hard to see a scenario that he does not get the nomination.


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    #110
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Mary Fallin at 33/1 might be worth a small wager for the vice president as well.

    Like this, and these 33/1 are more likeable numbers (via Ladbrokes) than the before mentioned 1/33 (for RP re-confirmation).

    He'll need 'good cop' politically correct, softer spoken figure to counteract his more 'creative' personality, but would need more pondering, as it's a big field.

    The 1.03 for RP does contain some risk, as obviously (as seen on the tv-box), not everyone is an enthusiastic fan, in the land of the highly 'weaponized and prescribed'.


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    #111
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,138 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    The 1.03 for RP does contain some risk, as obviously (as seen on the tv-box), not everyone is an enthusiastic fan, in the land of the highly 'weaponized and prescribed'.

    I'm not suggesting completely free money. But when the entire market is 1.01, and I get on at 1.05, I'm happy that I'd achieve value.


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    #112
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Just saw this thread.. What an OP.


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    #113
    Polo_Mint
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,504 ✭✭✭Polo_Mint


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Just saw this thread.. What an OP.

    He didnt place 1000 bet


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    #114
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    I think this two horse race is all over now.
    Personally I have 2K on Clinton, and feel it's a dead cert.
    Short odds, but low liability. One just needs the patience to wait until November for it to deliver.
    I cannot see Trump winning.


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    #115
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,138 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    poa wrote: »
    I think this two horse race is all over now.
    Personally I have 2K on Clinton, and feel it's a dead cert.
    Short odds, but low liability. One just needs the patience to wait until November for it to deliver.
    I cannot see Trump winning.

    I've a large bet on trump nomination, I think it's about the only value I'll try to squeeze out of the race.


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    #116
    Blatter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,832 ✭✭✭✭Blatter


    These market seems like they can be extremely reactionary and often very wrong.

    For example early on in the Primary voting, Rubio was shortened into the odds on favorite for the Republican nomination after a perceived strong third place finish in Iowa, where he beat the polls in terms of how close he got to Trump and Cruz. This certainly proved to be a complete false dawn and the market seemed to 'read' the situation incorrectly to an astounding degree.

    Similarly a few weeks ago, the market reacted pretty strongly to the 'anyone but Trump' campaign (and Trump's controversial abortion comments) when he moved from a strong odds on position for the nomination (I think it was 1.25 or so) to odds against (I remember it going out to at least 2.2 at one stage). This again proved to be a huge overreaction as it took maybe a couple of weeks thereafter for Cruz and Kasich to pull out, making Trump the presumptive nominee.

    There seems to be tons of value available in this market if you know your US politics inside out.


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    #117
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    Mellor wrote: »
    I've a large bet on trump nomination, I think it's about the only value I'll try to squeeze out of the race.

    A sound bet. Its Trump v Clinton now. Clinton wins, but you can sit back and relax until November knowing your money is safe. I don't mind being patient on these long term bets when one knows they are a dead cert to deliver.
    I was going to lump on Clinton nomination myself, but saw more value in Clinton win so lumped 2K on. I can't see her odds drifting much and his shortening much from now until November. As unpopular as she is, he is less popular; so it's really a case of the her winning by default.


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    #118
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,138 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    poa wrote: »
    A sound bet. Its Trump v Clinton now. Clinton wins, but you can sit back and relax until November knowing your money is safe. I don't mind being patient on these long term bets when one knows they are a dead cert to deliver.
    I shouldn't have to wait until November. It should pay out as soon as he gets the nomination.
    was going to lump on Clinton nomination myself,.
    That maket is closed now.


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    #119
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    That maket is closed now.[/QUOTE]


    You don't say.
    In other news; water is wet.
    You do realise the difference between; I was going to lump on, and I am going to lump on?
    You know, like past and present.


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    #120
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Trump probably at the shortest price it's ever been @2.5.
    It's been a dead heat recently, poll-wise.

    Looks like around half of the intended voting population aka the so-called 'Basket of Deplorables'
    may be in with a good chance of their leader winning.

    There was some news today of a 'medical episode' which may be affecting odds.

    Bernie is back down @13, so some must think he still has a chance, interesting.


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    #121
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,026 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    Trump probably at the shortest price it's ever been @2.5.
    It's been a dead heat recently, poll-wise.

    Looks like around half of the intended voting population aka the so-called 'Basket of Deplorables'
    may be in with a good chance of their leader winning.

    There was some news today of a 'medical episode' which may be affecting odds.

    Bernie is back down @13, so some must think he still has a chance, interesting.



    Bernie price is silly in some places, if I was to have a few throw away tenner bets, it would be on Kaine or Biden, both guys would be business as usual for the dems which is what the people behind the scenes would probably prefer.:pac:

    Bernie isn't even in the democrat party anymore:D


This discussion has been closed.
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