Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Dawggone · 08-08-2016 12:02PM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

If you were young and starting out again would you go down the same road or focus on low volume high price or avoid farming altogether?

Avoid.

But then I'm a sucker for punishment.

Timmaay · 08-08-2016 12:09PM

6270red wrote: »

It's being a good few years of grass growth but buying in winter feed in this country is a risky game and eventually you'll get burnt.
It's being a bad period price wise. **** happens, I'll get through it like everyone else. I have no intention of going back to the job. You seem to have a lot of doubts about your profession, you mention on most posts about getting out.
How many years will you hang around because it'll come to a stage when going back to the job won't be an option.

I suppose I'm eternally on the fence and an optimist about my future prospects outside of farming ha. In terms of going back to "the job", I know for one I'll never take another 9 to 5 office job working for whatever souless company, but there are several other areas that I'll happily get my teeth stuck into. Then again I'm not tidy down with family etc which obviously makes a huge difference. On buying in fodder, I'd disagree, you build up loyalty over time with afew different fodder suppliers, I had a deal done for 21 acres 1st cut next year already, I always have the pit of silage carried forward also as insurance, if I'm going to get burnt it will be a small fraction of my winter supply. This obviously isn't for everyone, but it's certainly a very viable expansion option once you are some way off the 3.5cows/ha on the grazing block, and alot better than having to snap up land at 10k/acre.

Dawggone · 08-08-2016 12:18PM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

There is absolutely no future in producing most your output for the bottom end of the market, in Western Europe or costs have gotten too high. We are entering a new space where max output doesn't equal max income until tech balances the equation or everyone else's gets more expensive

Exactly.

Any commodity producer works on volume and a small margin.
Half the milk I produce goes for a fairly high end cheese that's consumed by the natives, the other half goes for baby formula to the Chinese market.

Only 61ha of commodity wheat this year (zero next year) the rest was milling. All maize is either for home use or is grown on contract for an end user...

Water John · 08-08-2016 12:19PM

I have a 'mental' ignore button which I have activated long ago for some on this thread.
A dairy farm unit of the farmer plus contracting in services must be a viable entity. That is not a 90 hour week.
That is the optimum size.
It needs an average milk price of at least 35 cent including solids to justify.

Back to the old song, getting larger is not equivalent to getting efficient.
One just needs a certain size to be viable.

Dawggone · 08-08-2016 12:28PM

Water John wrote: »

I have a 'mental' ignore button which I have activated long ago for some on this thread.
A dairy farm unit of the farmer plus contracting in services must be a viable entity. That is not a 90 hour week.
That is the optimum size.
It needs an average milk price of at least 35 cent including solids to justify.

Back to the old song, getting larger is not equivalent to getting efficient.
One just needs a certain size to be viable.

+1.

But if you're producing milk that's being processed into a bottom end commodity, you're going to need either 1. a very simple lifestyle or 2. an extremely low cost of production.

Water John · 08-08-2016 12:34PM

I accept the cheese angle in your case Dawgone but the infant formula is not a commodity product either.
For many in Ireland half their milk is going into infant formula but farmers are only getting base commodity price. Every one else in the chain is declaring high profits each subsequent year, no matter what the product price is.

6270red · 08-08-2016 12:35PM

Timmaay wrote: »

I suppose I'm eternally on the fence and an optimist about my future prospects outside of farming ha. In terms of going back to "the job", I know for one I'll never take another 9 to 5 office job working for whatever souless company, but there are several other areas that I'll happily get my teeth stuck into. Then again I'm not tidy down with family etc which obviously makes a huge difference. On buying in fodder, I'd disagree, you build up loyalty over time with afew different fodder suppliers, I had a deal done for 21 acres 1st cut next year already, I always have the pit of silage carried forward also as insurance, if I'm going to get burnt it will be a small fraction of my winter supply. This obviously isn't for everyone, but it's certainly a very viable expansion option once you are some way off the 3.5cows/ha on the grazing block, and alot better than having to snap up land at 10k/acre.

You might have that fodder now but I still have nightmares about the line of tractors outside the coop waiting for €100 bales of straw in 2012- 2013.
When **** hits the fan some ruthless lad will pay more then you for that silage.
Better looking at it then for it.

rangler1 · 08-08-2016 12:36PM

Timmaay wrote: »

I suppose I'm eternally on the fence and an optimist about my future prospects outside of farming ha. In terms of going back to "the job", I know for one I'll never take another 9 to 5 office job working for whatever souless company, but there are several other areas that I'll happily get my teeth stuck into. Then again I'm not tidy down with family etc which obviously makes a huge difference. On buying in fodder, I'd disagree, you build up loyalty over time with afew different fodder suppliers, I had a deal done for 21 acres 1st cut next year already, I always have the pit of silage carried forward also as insurance, if I'm going to get burnt it will be a small fraction of my winter supply. This obviously isn't for everyone, but it's certainly a very viable expansion option once you are some way off the 3.5cows/ha on the grazing block, and alot better than having to snap up land at 10k/acre.

Hard to see a margin for the silage supplier, wonder what does he reckon as to how much fertiliser is going out the gate in 21 acres grass,
Will he look back in five tears and say WTF happened my field

Dawggone · 08-08-2016 12:36PM

Water John wrote: »

I accept the cheese angle in your case Dawgone but the infant formula is not a commodity product either.
For many in Ireland half their milk is going into infant formula but farmers are only getting base commodity price. Every one else in the chain is declaring high profits each subsequent year, no matter what the product price is.

Very true.

We're suckers for punishment...

6270red · 08-08-2016 12:36PM

Dawggone wrote: »

Use the ignore button...

Maybe take the friendly advice.....

rangler1 · 08-08-2016 12:39PM

Timmaay wrote: »

I suppose I'm eternally on the fence and an optimist about my future prospects outside of farming ha. In terms of going back to "the job", I know for one I'll never take another 9 to 5 office job working for whatever souless company, but there are several other areas that I'll happily get my teeth stuck into. Then again I'm not tidy down with family etc which obviously makes a huge difference. On buying in fodder, I'd disagree, you build up loyalty over time with afew different fodder suppliers, I had a deal done for 21 acres 1st cut next year already, I always have the pit of silage carried forward also as insurance, if I'm going to get burnt it will be a small fraction of my winter supply. This obviously isn't for everyone, but it's certainly a very viable expansion option once you are some way off the 3.5cows/ha on the grazing block, and alot better than having to snap up land at 10k/acre.

Hard to see a margin for the silage supplier, wonder what does he reckon as to how much fertiliser is going out the gate in 21 acres grass,
Will he look back in five years and say WTF happened my field

Dawggone · 08-08-2016 12:40PM

6270red wrote: »

Maybe take the friendly advice.....

I'm way too old and grumpy to take life advice from an anonymous poster on a public forum.

Press the button....you know you want to.

whelan2 · 08-08-2016 12:43PM

right............ any ideas for July milk price?

kowtow · 08-08-2016 12:44PM

Farmer Ed wrote:

At what point does it become impossible for us to pay the guy fixing the baler? The trend is undeniable. The economics of it are simple.

The economics of it are that if there were less balers doing more bales whoever owned the baler would be able to afford to fix it.

Timmaay · 08-08-2016 01:11PM

rangler1 wrote: »

Hard to see a margin for the silage supplier, wonder what does he reckon as to how much fertiliser is going out the gate in 21 acres grass,
Will he look back in five years and say WTF happened my field

Agreed, which is why I'm always open to other potential silage suppliers ha. Looking at the tillage sector at the minute I'm fully open to more maize or whole crop also however, in general it comes down to a c/kgDM for me.

One reason why I'm changing my tune to expansion moving forward is a large part of the jigsaw is just slotting into place, that being the extra winter accommodation, going on the typical grand spec department costings I had assumed extra cubicles would be coming in at the likes of 1200+/cow (or say 800 after grand), however I'm just after pricing up a job, I should be able to get it for alot closer to 500/cow if I go non grant, or as low as 250/cow if I can get over the line with the 60% grant. It's only a 5year payback at that that sort of cost, which let's me remain nicely on the fence ha.

6270red · 08-08-2016 01:19PM

Dawggone wrote: »

I'm way too old and grumpy to take life advice from an anonymous poster on a public forum.

Press the button....you know you want to.

You've proved the point I was making in the first post. Thanks for that.

Brown Podzol · 08-08-2016 01:34PM

Timmaay wrote: »

I suppose I'm eternally on the fence and an optimist about my future prospects outside of farming ha. In terms of going back to "the job", I know for one I'll never take another 9 to 5 office job working for whatever souless company, but there are several other areas that I'll happily get my teeth stuck into. Then again I'm not tidy down with family etc which obviously makes a huge difference. On buying in fodder, I'd disagree, you build up loyalty over time with afew different fodder suppliers, I had a deal done for 21 acres 1st cut next year already, I always have the pit of silage carried forward also as insurance, if I'm going to get burnt it will be a small fraction of my winter supply. This obviously isn't for everyone, but it's certainly a very viable expansion option once you are some way off the 3.5cows/ha on the grazing block, and alot better than having to snap up land at 10k/acre.

3.9 cows/ha, projected 7,500 lts @ 7.8% solids delivered this year, 1.2 ton meal. Have 600 kg/dm per cow taken off as bales. 50% of grass silage bought in at 9/11 cent per kg dm, much cheaper than growing myself and at this stage have a choice of suppliers. Output up 50% and cow no's up 15% since quotas abolished. Thinking of going to 4.2 cows/ha next year as the grass grown figures over the last few years would support it. Extra land is just extra work. All crops are being sold at less than the cost of production. If supply dries up or gets too expensive I'll just have to take on an extra block of land which will increase cost and create extra work.

Ruxin · 08-08-2016 01:37PM

whelan2 wrote: »

right............ any ideas for July milk price?

Same as June way to soo to be thinking about price rise yet.

RightTurnClyde · 08-08-2016 01:52PM

Brown Podzol wrote: »

3.9 cows/ha, projected 7,500 lts @ 7.8% solids delivered this year, 1.2 ton meal. Have 600 kg/dm per cow taken off as bales. 50% of grass silage bought in at 9/11 cent per kg dm, much cheaper than growing myself and at this stage have a choice of suppliers. Output up 50% and cow no's up 15% since quotas abolished. Thinking of going to 4.2 cows/ha next year as the grass grown figures over the last few years would support it. Extra land is just extra work. All crops are being sold at less than the cost of production. If supply dries up or gets too expensive I'll just have to take on an extra block of land which will increase cost and create extra work.

That's the ticket.

Timmaay · 08-08-2016 02:01PM

Brown Podzol wrote: »

3.9 cows/ha, projected 7,500 lts @ 7.8% solids delivered this year, 1.2 ton meal. Have 600 kg/dm per cow taken off as bales. 50% of grass silage bought in at 9/11 cent per kg dm, much cheaper than growing myself and at this stage have a choice of suppliers. Output up 50% and cow no's up 15% since quotas abolished. Thinking of going to 4.2 cows/ha next year as the grass grown figures over the last few years would support it. Extra land is just extra work. All crops are being sold at less than the cost of production. If supply dries up or gets too expensive I'll just have to take on an extra block of land which will increase cost and create extra work.

10c/kgDM is the magic mark, as you said why would ya grow it yourself at that! The maize I buy is pricey at closer to 16c, however for how well it feeds I'd put it at 14c in comparion to grass silage. I've alot more grass to grow here per Ha to get to 3.9cows/ha and take off 600kgdm/cow in bales also!

Mooooo · 08-08-2016 02:21PM

Brown Podzol wrote: »

Timmaay wrote: »

I suppose I'm eternally on the fence and an optimist about my future prospects outside of farming ha. In terms of going back to "the job", I know for one I'll never take another 9 to 5 office job working for whatever souless company, but there are several other areas that I'll happily get my teeth stuck into. Then again I'm not tidy down with family etc which obviously makes a huge difference. On buying in fodder, I'd disagree, you build up loyalty over time with afew different fodder suppliers, I had a deal done for 21 acres 1st cut next year already, I always have the pit of silage carried forward also as insurance, if I'm going to get burnt it will be a small fraction of my winter supply. This obviously isn't for everyone, but it's certainly a very viable expansion option once you are some way off the 3.5cows/ha on the grazing block, and alot better than having to snap up land at 10k/acre.

3.9 cows/ha, projected 7,500 lts @ 7.8% solids delivered this year, 1.2 ton meal. Have 600 kg/dm per cow taken off as bales. 50% of grass silage bought in at 9/11 cent per kg dm, much cheaper than growing myself and at this stage have a choice of suppliers. Output up 50% and cow no's up 15% since quotas abolished. Thinking of going to 4.2 cows/ha next year as the grass grown figures over the last few years would support it. Extra land is just extra work. All crops are being sold at less than the cost of production. If supply dries up or gets too expensive I'll just have to take on an extra block of land which will increase cost and create extra work.

Nitrates could be the next thing the EU could come out with to hit that system, obviously one can only play by the rules in front of you but if N limits are cut back what way do u think you'll go?

Buford T. Justice XIX · 08-08-2016 02:23PM

whelan2 wrote: »

right............ any ideas for July milk price?

I'd say it will hold across everyone, noone will want to be the first to break ranks and rise price.

Plus the processors will have to get their margin back up again, those cushions will need filling again before the lad being strangled at the end of the chain gets a bit of oxygen again.

If we get a rise in GDT (2 GDTs before next cheque) again, they will have to rise prices though, I reckon

freedominacup · 08-08-2016 02:23PM

Mooooo wrote: »

Nitrates could be the next thing the EU could come out with to hit that system, obviously one can only play by the rules in front of you but if N limits are cut back what way do u think you'll go?

Muck out feed in. Simples if there is tillage in your area.

Waffletraktor · 08-08-2016 02:32PM

freedominacup wrote: »

Muck out feed in. Simples if there is tillage in your area.

You pay for baling and getting home, other guy pays for return haul and spreading, cutting string and crap out of spreader charged back to you.

kowtow · 08-08-2016 02:58PM

I'm making the most expensive bales in munster this year, on outside ground, should third cut this week but when all costs are included it would make your eyes water if you did it at scale.

Set me thinking about maximising quality from expensive silage rather than minimising costs....

From our perspective alternatives like whole crop wouldn't work (alfalfa might..) but I wonder where the limits lie in terms of price per kg dm... how much more per bale is the perfect bale worth over the average?

jaymla627 · 08-08-2016 03:51PM

kowtow wrote: »

I'm making the most expensive bales in munster this year, on outside ground, should third cut this week but when all costs are included it would make your eyes water if you did it at scale.

Set me thinking about maximising quality from expensive silage rather than minimising costs....

From our perspective alternatives like whole crop wouldn't work (alfalfa might..) but I wonder where the limits lie in terms of price per kg dm... how much more per bale is the perfect bale worth over the average?

Top quality baled silage with figures of plus 80dmd over 16%pr and over 30%dm are capable of supporting 20 litres of milk and a good fusion bale would feed in our around 20 fresh calvers plus 7kgs of meal averaging 30 litres and will hold cow condition....
A average bale of dry cow feed say valued at 20 euro, I'd reckon the above like silage is worth 35-40 euro easily even with milk at 20 cent a litre, having a stack of bales like above for milkers in a bad spring really are priceless

mf240 · 08-08-2016 04:00PM

freedominacup wrote: »

Muck out feed in. Simples if there is tillage in your area.

Or sell the single payment and work away.

jaymla627 · 08-08-2016 04:18PM

mf240 wrote: »

Or sell the single payment and work away.

Simplest option, have been over 300kgs/ha the past 4 years here and heading past 450kgs/ha this year and have never had so much as visit from the department, when they have no financial penaltys to hit you with they really don't bother going after you once you have storage and aren't been flagged for pollution

Farmer Ed · 08-08-2016 04:20PM

kowtow wrote: »

The economics of it are that if there were less balers doing more bales whoever owned the baler would be able to afford to fix it.

I get your point but no matter who owns the baler the cow still has to pay to fix it. If the cow is making less in real terms at what point do you reach a point where is just no longer viable?

Keepgrowing · 08-08-2016 06:11PM

Timmaay wrote: »

Agreed, which is why I'm always open to other potential silage suppliers ha. Looking at the tillage sector at the minute I'm fully open to more maize or whole crop also however, in general it comes down to a c/kgDM for me.

One reason why I'm changing my tune to expansion moving forward is a large part of the jigsaw is just slotting into place, that being the extra winter accommodation, going on the typical grand spec department costings I had assumed extra cubicles would be coming in at the likes of 1200+/cow (or say 800 after grand), however I'm just after pricing up a job, I should be able to get it for alot closer to 500/cow if I go non grant, or as low as 250/cow if I can get over the line with the 60% grant. It's only a 5year payback at that that sort of cost, which let's me remain nicely on the fence ha.

How are you managing 500 per space? Is this with slurry storage?
Doing a job here expected in at 585 per cubicle with slurry storage. The storage will be 30% larger than cubicle numbers.

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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