Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

OverRide · 07-08-2016 06:29PM

Well I had a repairman collecting his bill yesterday
He charged labour for two days because he was two days at it he said
Yeah I said 3hrs Thursday afternoon and 3hrs Friday and you did at least 2 other call outs both days aswell,did you charge them a full day's pay too I asked

Remind me again how much labour we charge our dairy processors for supplying them with milk?

Bass Reeves · 07-08-2016 07:08PM

OverRide wrote: »

Well I had a repairman collecting his bill yesterday
He charged labour for two days because he was two days at it he said
Yeah I said 3hrs Thursday afternoon and 3hrs Friday and you did at least 2 other call outs both days aswell,did you charge them a full day's pay too I asked

Remind me again how much labour we charge our dairy processors for supplying them with milk?

What did he charge and what did he do for you.

OverRide · 07-08-2016 07:55PM

€300 for work done on a baler,I got the parts myself
That's about €50 an hour...

Farmer Ed · 08-08-2016 07:39AM

OverRide wrote: »

€300 for work done on a baler,I got the parts myself
That's about €50 an hour...

Sorry for repeating myself but it all comes back to the fact that milk price has not kept in line with inflation. All our costs are rising but not milk price. If we were to get the same price now as 1989 when inflation is taken in to account, we would be getting 66cl in today's money.

Dawggone · 08-08-2016 07:48AM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Sorry for repeating myself but it all comes back to the fact that milk price has not kept in line with inflation. All our costs are rising but not milk price. If we were to get the same price now as 1989 when inflation is taken in to account, we would be getting 66cl in today's money.

Dream on.

In '89 quota vastly skewed the market.

This is 2016, and intervention is vastly skewing the market, again.

Spoiled rotten...

Just to add...I'm going to see a 350ha tillage farm that's for sale this afternoon. Three years of low prices and hit with a double whammy this year...supposedly over 500ton of pink (fusarium) wheat dumped in the dungstead.

visatorro · 08-08-2016 07:48AM

OverRide wrote: »

€300 for work done on a baler,I got the parts myself
That's about €50 an hour...

Tbh that's the going rate for the likes of that. And I wouldn't blame a fella asking 50/ hour for routing at machinery on site.
It wouldn't be worth his while working otherwise.

Bass Reeves · 08-08-2016 08:02AM

OverRide wrote: »

€300 for work done on a baler,I got the parts myself
That's about €50 an hour...

That would be around the go of it. If he is VAT registered there is 6 euro in vat included. Even if not allow for an hour travel time both days that is an 8 hour. Then allow for his cost associated with tools, workshop ( even though he did not use it in your case) and van.

Farmer Ed · 08-08-2016 08:09AM

visatorro wrote: »

Tbh that's the going rate for the likes of that. And I wouldn't blame a fella asking 50/ hour for routing at machinery on site.
It wouldn't be worth his while working otherwise.

As I said we have just not kept in line with inflation and not just with milk. As farmers our work is not valued as skilled. The policy of cheep food is one that expects us to produce at below cost and be greatful for what ever social welfare payments we get from the Eu. Unfortunately by and large as dairy farmers or social welfare payment is generally not as large as other sectors as traditionaly we didn't need it. The big elephant in the room for all sectors is unlike others in society who depend on public money for survival, bfb Is not indexed linked.

At what point does it become impossible for us to pay the guy fixing the baler? The trend is undeniable. The economics of it are simple.

yosemitesam1 · 08-08-2016 08:29AM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

As I said we have just not kept in line with inflation and not just with milk. As farmers our work is not valued as skilled. The policy of cheep food is one that expects us to produce at below cost and be greatful for what ever social welfare payments we get from the Eu. Unfortunately by and large as dairy farmers or social welfare payment is generally not as large as other sectors as traditionaly we didn't need it. The big elephant in the room for all sectors is unlike others in society who depend on public money for survival, bfb Is not indexed linked.

At what point does it become impossible for us to pay the guy fixing the baler? The trend is undeniable. The economics of it are simple.

The biggest problem for prices is there is too much land in the world for the amount of people to be fed, so unless you make a link to the end market it will always be a race to the bottom

Farmer Ed · 08-08-2016 08:39AM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

The biggest problem for prices is there is too much land in the world for the amount of people to be fed, so unless you make a link to the end market it will always be a race to the bottom

I think you could be right. So maybe we need to think of ways of boxing more clever. I actually think that a lot of farmers and especially a lot of our supposed reprentitves suffer from the following condition, to the detriment of all of us. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grandiose_delusions

We need to wake up fast and come up with a better plan. Otherwise this year will not be a once off.

leg wax · 08-08-2016 08:41AM

when the farmer cant pay for the baler to be fixed he will go out and buy another because he thinks scale is the way to go more balers.......simple:o

Farmer Ed · 08-08-2016 08:51AM

Dawggone wrote: »

Dream on.

In '89 quota vastly skewed the market.

This is 2016, and intervention is vastly skewing the market, again.

Spoiled rotten...

Just to add...I'm going to see a 350ha tillage farm that's for sale this afternoon. Three years of low prices and hit with a double whammy this year...supposedly over 500ton of pink (fusarium) wheat dumped in the dungstead.

OK so the guy who had the farm lost his shirt and your thinking of buying it? You must have got great money from the baler you sold up near the Swiss border two days ago? Or did you win the lottery?

Dawggone · 08-08-2016 08:57AM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

The biggest problem for prices is there is too much land in the world for the amount of people to be fed, so unless you make a link to the end market it will always be a race to the bottom

Exactly.

There was a lecturer from UCC on tv lately and he was saying that the planet is producing enough food for 9 billion (or was it 10?) people today.

If you're in the commodity game it's always a matter of scale, no matter what you're at...milk, oil, wheat, whatever.
So scale up or get out...or link up to the end user and produce something that they actually want.

Farmer Ed · 08-08-2016 09:08AM

Dawggone wrote: »

Exactly.

There was a lecturer from UCC on tv lately and he was saying that the planet is producing enough food for 9 billion (or was it 10?) people today.

If you're in the commodity game it's always a matter of scale, no matter what you're at...milk, oil, wheat, whatever.
So scale up or get out...or link up to the end user and produce something that they actually want.

So it would appear you are choosing the former. You better get a move on if your going to look at that farm. I suppose you could easily milk an extra 1000 cows if you buy it. No point in doing the same thing as the last man. That tillage seems to be a total loss maker when you exclude the Bfp

whelan2 · 08-08-2016 09:10AM

visatorro wrote: »

Tbh that's the going rate for the likes of that. And I wouldn't blame a fella asking 50/ hour for routing at machinery on site.
It wouldn't be worth his while working otherwise.

Fair enough if the job is done right, was charged 170 euro labour here by a main dealer a few years ago. I would say 2 minutes he was in the yard and assumed I wasnt here, he didnt even do the job. Got a local guy to do it for 40 euro. I didnt pay the 170 euro, dealership said that it was an internal invoice sent to me by error:D

6270red · 08-08-2016 09:27AM

Dawggone wrote: »

Exactly.

There was a lecturer from UCC on tv lately and he was saying that the planet is producing enough food for 9 billion (or was it 10?) people today.

If you're in the commodity game it's always a matter of scale, no matter what you're at...milk, oil, wheat, whatever.
So scale up or get out...or link up to the end user and produce something that they actually want.

Your constantly banging the scale up or get out drum. You do realise this is Ireland not France.
How do you scale up if you are surrounded by farmers thinking the same thing. Where is a guy milking 100 cows going to get the money to buy another 100-200 acres of land to scale up as you say. Wouldn't be long going bust then.
Then you come on blowing about how your going to buy a tillage farm. Last month you were being offered a dairy farm with a big calf rearing unit. You then post that other people are talking rubbish when they disagree with you.
You can take offence to this post if you want some of your posts are excellent but your constant poo pooing of everyone else's opinions is starting to become a pain. No one likes a know it all.

yosemitesam1 · 08-08-2016 09:38AM

Dawggone wrote: »

Exactly.

There was a lecturer from UCC on tv lately and he was saying that the planet is producing enough food for 9 billion (or was it 10?) people today.

If you're in the commodity game it's always a matter of scale, no matter what you're at...milk, oil, wheat, whatever.
So scale up or get out...or link up to the end user and produce something that they actually want.

If you were young and starting out again would you go down the same road or focus on low volume high price or avoid farming altogether?

Farmer Ed · 08-08-2016 09:51AM

6270red wrote: »

Your constantly banging the scale up or get out drum. You do realise this is Ireland not France.
How do you scale up if you are surrounded by farmers thinking the same thing. Where is a guy milking 100 cows going to get the money to buy another 100-200 acres of land to scale up as you say. Wouldn't be long going bust then.
Then you come on blowing about how your going to buy a tillage farm. Last month you were being offered a dairy farm with a big calf rearing unit. You then post that other people are talking rubbish when they disagree with you.
You can take offence to this post if you want some of your posts are excellent but your constant poo pooing of everyone else's opinions is starting to become a pain. No one likes a know it all.

This would be one way of scaling up.
http://www.bigfishgames.com/games/2466/virtual-farm-game/?pc

Waffletraktor · 08-08-2016 10:12AM

He says scale up or get out because there is no future for 75-90% of Irish farms.
In 20 years just like every other developed country you will have larger farms, part timer lifestyle blocks and abandonment of upland in productive areas unless some heavily subsidised enviro fund is in place.
Change is always a decade slower in Ireland, this is nothing new.

Farmer Ed · 08-08-2016 10:23AM

One things for sure if I didn't have my own farm no way would I work for another farmer.

Timmaay · 08-08-2016 10:53AM

6270red wrote: »

How do you scale up if you are surrounded by farmers thinking the same thing. Where is a guy milking 100 cows going to get the money to buy another 100-200 acres of land to scale up as you say. Wouldn't be long going bust then

Another 100/200 acres obv the extreme end, and will quickly make ya go bust, however how many farmers paid 10k+/ac for the likes of 30/40 acres over the last few years, if they are relying on agricultural return only to pay this back they are basically slowly going bust also!!

I've pushed on milk output the last few years here, up about 40% now. Stocked at 2.8lu/ha overall at the min, so simple as is more land is needed for any further expansion. Buying land at 10k/acre is the utterly last way that I will expand however, but there is plenty of tillage farmers around me who can grow maize/whole crop etc, alongside a reasonable amount of standing crops of silage. Expansion here will be achieved by stocking the milking block to the likes of 3.5cows/arce, and buy in all the winter fodder, alongside feeding in the shoulders when grazing is difficult and grass not up to scratch anyways. This, alongside increasing per cow yield to about 6500l will all allow me to increase milk output by another 80% on this year's figures. This will be a total increase of about 150% on our quota milk output, with no purchase of extra land. Do I want to go fully down this road I don't know ha (depends on the average milk price over the next few years, alongside labour etc), however I know by now that my two best options are either the likes of this, or just get out of dairying.

freedominacup · 08-08-2016 10:53AM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

He says scale up or get out because there is no future for 75-90% of Irish farms.
In 20 years just like every other developed country you will have larger farms, part timer lifestyle blocks and abandonment of upland in productive areas unless some heavily subsidised enviro fund is in place.
Change is always a decade slower in Ireland, this is nothing new.

I don't know if you're right waffle tbh. I thought the same thing twenty plus years ago and I've been proved wrong continuously since. We haven't got much beyond half the average UK herdsize in '96 at this stage. We're heading towards 70 now they were at 120 then. We did work exp back in the early nineties. Every second herd on the list was 300 cows. The small guy was milking 90 of the highest yielding cows in the UK at the time.

There's no doubt that at least 75% of farms have no viable future as commercial entities but that has been true for decades but nothing much has changed so far. Increases in farm size are going to take a while in areas like my own. The elder statesman dairy farmer is in his late fifties early sixties. Average herdsize is over 100. Farm size over 150acres owned and as many guys under forty running farms as over it. No one is going anywhere in terms of selling or retiring. But funnily enough it's hard to get much over 6k per acre for land when it comes up.

Waffletraktor · 08-08-2016 10:54AM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

One things for sure if I didn't have my own farm no way would I work for another farmer.

You should try working for someone who has no interest in farming their own farm then, if you have the required skill set. Or just play fs 2017... Or become bitter blame grandad for not buying you a bigger farm

Farmer Ed · 08-08-2016 11:05AM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

You should try working for someone who has no interest in farming their own farm then, if you have the required skill set. Or just play fs 2017... Or become bitter blame grandad for not buying you a bigger farm

No point being bitter. But no way would I work all hours for poor pay if it wasn't my own business. Easier ways to make a living. Large scare farming can only survive on cheap labour.

Waffletraktor · 08-08-2016 11:06AM

freedominacup wrote: »

I don't know if you're right waffle tbh. I thought the same thing twenty plus years ago and I've been proved wrong continuously since. We haven't got much beyond half the average UK herdsize in '96 at this stage. We're heading towards 70 now they were at 120 then. We did work exp back in the early nineties. Every second herd on the list was 300 cows. The small guy was milking 90 of the highest yielding cows in the UK at the time.

There's no doubt that at least 75% of farms have no viable future as commercial entities but that has been true for decades but nothing much has changed so far. Increases in farm size are going to take a while in areas like my own. The elder statesman dairy farmer is in his late fifties early sixties. Average herdsize is over 100. Farm size over 150acres and as many guys under forty running farms as over it. No one is going anywhere in terms of selling or retiring. But funnily enough it's hard to get much over 6k per acre for land when it comes up.

You will have pockets that are different but the tide is going one way only difference is the speed.
In the new reality for dairy, price will get back to a liveable amount but the peaks won't go so high or the dips as low when it settles down with variation being odd weather events etc.
There is absolutely no future in producing most your output for the bottom end of the market, in Western Europe or costs have gotten too high. We are entering a new space where max output doesn't equal max income until tech balances the equation or everyone else's gets more expensive

6270red · 08-08-2016 11:08AM

Timmaay wrote: »

Another 100/200 acres obv the extreme end, and will quickly make ya go bust, however how many farmers paid 10k+/ac for the likes of 30/40 acres over the last few years, if they are relying on agricultural return only to pay this back they are basically slowly going bust also!!

I've pushed on milk output the last few years here, up about 40% now. Stocked at 2.8lu/ha overall at the min, so simple as is more land is needed for any further expansion. Buying land at 10k/acre is the utterly last way that I will expand however, but there is plenty of tillage farmers around me who can grow maize/whole crop etc, alongside a reasonable amount of standing crops of silage. Expansion here will be achieved by stocking the milking block to the likes of 3.5cows/arce, and buy in all the winter fodder, alongside feeding in the shoulders when grazing is difficult and grass not up to scratch anyways. This, alongside increasing per cow yield to about 6500l will all allow me to increase milk output by another 80% on this year's figures. This will be a total increase of about 150% on our quota milk output, with no purchase of extra land. Do I want to go fully down this road I don't know ha (depends on the average milk price over the next few years, alongside labour etc), however I know by now that my two best options are either the likes of this, or just get out of dairying.

It's being a good few years of grass growth but buying in winter feed in this country is a risky game and eventually you'll get burnt.
It's being a bad period price wise. **** happens, I'll get through it like everyone else. I have no intention of going back to the job. You seem to have a lot of doubts about your profession, you mention on most posts about getting out.
How many years will you hang around because it'll come to a stage when going back to the job won't be an option.

farmerjj · 08-08-2016 11:11AM

Haven't read this thread in a long time, and it seems to me now that its no longer about milk price, it seems people just wanna ram there thoughts on what they predict the future to be down peoples throats, its a bit of a sham calling this thread milk price, should be moanie h**e corner, would suit it better at this stage

Waffletraktor · 08-08-2016 11:11AM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Waffletraktor wrote: »

You should try working for someone who has no interest in farming their own farm then, if you have the required skill set. Or just play fs 2017... Or become bitter blame grandad for not buying you a bigger farm

No point being bitter. But no way would I work all hours for poor pay if it wasn't my own business. Easier ways to make a living. Large scare farming can only survive on cheap labour.

Skilled labour will ALWAYS be in demand and well paid, it depends who it is that is setting the mark at what they think skilled is

Farmer Ed · 08-08-2016 11:43AM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

Skilled labour will ALWAYS be in demand and well paid, it depends who it is that is setting the mark at what they think skilled is

IMO food production should earn at least amount of respect as pharmaceutical production. Show me a farm worker who is better paid and have a shorter working week than a pharmaceutical worker? If farming can't pay the farmer a good wage then it's unlikely a farmer can pay employees a good wage for any sustainable period of time. Each to there own but I couldn't see a lucrative future in it. the only successful farm managers i know have all moved on to bigger and better things.

Dawggone · 08-08-2016 12:00PM

6270red wrote: »

Your constantly banging the scale up or get out drum. You do realise this is Ireland not France.
How do you scale up if you are surrounded by farmers thinking the same thing. Where is a guy milking 100 cows going to get the money to buy another 100-200 acres of land to scale up as you say. Wouldn't be long going bust then.
Then you come on blowing about how your going to buy a tillage farm. Last month you were being offered a dairy farm with a big calf rearing unit. You then post that other people are talking rubbish when they disagree with you.
You can take offence to this post if you want some of your posts are excellent but your constant poo pooing of everyone else's opinions is starting to become a pain. No one likes a know it all.

Use the ignore button...

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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