NI elections-looks like Trimble wipeout and South Belfast goes nationalist

Latest reports I'm hearing.
Trimble looks like he's gone, with his seat going to the DUP.
Looks like Alastair McDonnell of the SDLP is going to be South Belfasts new nationalist mp as Sprat and McGimpsey split the unionist vote.

Box car Willie McCrea is taking Roy Begs Seat and Conor Murphy of SF seems like a cert in Newry and Armagh.

Over in Foyle, in John Humes old seat, it looks like Tactical voting by some of the 10,000 or so unionist voters there is helping Durkans battle against Mitchel Mcglaughlin.

The headlines are as expected with the core votes of SF and the DUP up.

A Dub in Glasgo

Gerry Adams holds his seat with 70.5% of the vote

yeah, he also mentioned in his speech about a shredded register, what was that all about?

mike65

Me rushes to the telly....NOT! Sorry but I cant get remotly excited by the shifting sands up North. But I did hear someone from the SDLP suggesting strongly they'd hold 3 seats.

Mike.

Alastair Mcdonnell elected in S Belfast now for the SDLP

MT

So there we have it. Further proof, if it were needed by this point that the North is well on its way to becoming the new Balkans. With yet more polarisation, the two tribes have essentially elected the most repugnant of parties to represent them. In truth, each side doesn't give a fig about improving life in NI but instead how they can most damage and hold back the advancement of the 'enemy' across the sectarian divide. Such bitter, begrudging and bigotted people.

What are the chances now of stable, productive devolved government? What with the success of the IRA and Protestant Jihad at this election. Well, there's one thing that can be said, they've made their own beds...

If nothing else, Alasdair McDonnell's victory in South Belfast gives some reason for chear. If only because it'll annoy all the other parties intensely.

Unionists are furious that their vote was split giving the seat to Nationalism. There'll be recrimminations over this for weeks, if not years, between the DUP and UUP over who's to blame. But the greatest ire of all belongs to Sinn Fein. They positively hate the man - another of those many 'traitors' that Republicans rave on about.

McDonnell was by far and away the strongest supporter and most vociferous voice behind the McCartney sisters campaign for justice for their murdered brother. Needless to say Sinn Fein view the sisters and McDonnell as treacherous vermin. During the campaign, instead of standing aside and giving McDonnell a free run as the only nationalist with a chance, SF displayed once more their intolerance for nationalists with alternative opinions by forcefully pushing Alex Maskey to ensure the SDLP were kept out. It did seem at times that the Republican Movement desperately wanted the seat to go to a Unionist as opposed to a rival Nationalist.

Then to top it all, who did McDonnell receive an endorsement from on a visit north? Why, none other than SF's bete noir and most trenchant critic - Michael McDowell. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at party hq tonight if anyone mentions McDonnell, McDowell and the McCartney sisters all in the one sentence. There'd be kneecaps splintering in every direction.

Raskolnikov

Trimble set to lose his seat to DUP. Wonder were the voice of moderate Unionism will go from here.

MT

Now that McDonnell has seen off both the IRA and Protestant Jihad in the consituency he'll be able to use his higher profile to further advance the McCartney cause. But there can be no doubt that this result, in conjunction with the severe censure by the European Parliament of SF's conduct over the brutal McCartney murder, should give the sisters a real lift. Who knows, with the current run of events there might yet be justice for Robert.

To paraphrase SF supporters crude jeers at the Meath count, this was definately an 'up yours' from McDonnell.

just heard on BBC NI that Durkan in Foyle is running at up to 6000 votes ahead of Mitchel MCloughlin.

MT

Raskolnikov wrote:

Trimble set to lose his seat to DUP. Wonder were the voice of moderate Unionism will go from here.

In a deliquent tribalised society, that's riven by sectarian fear and loathing, there are precious few moderates of any hue. Hence, the rise of the all-island geographic absolutists and Protestant Jihad.

MT

Earthman wrote:

just heard on BBC NI that Durkan in Foyle is running at up to 6000 votes ahead of Mitchel MCloughlin.

Excellent news. This will be a real triumph over adversity and the best possible answer to the thuggish antics and intimidation of Republican hoods in the area.

A victory for democracy over brutality and tyranny.

A Dub in Glasgo

Oh dear... such hyperbole

Durkan has just been elected with a margin of about 4000 votes

I understand theres a recount in mid Ulster as a box with 3000 odd votes has been found and wasnt counted.

Conor Murphy is still waiting in Newry and Armagh but looks a cert there.

This means 7 "green" mps up North or is it 8, it would be the largest number ever iirc.

The UUP are down to one.


{moderator hat on] I sense something sparky in this thread, would those who are sparking please chillaxe or I may have to take action-ye know who ye are {moderator hat on}

Sand

If anything positive arises from this it may be cross community tactical voting to try and prevent terrrorists on one hand and extremists on the other gaining seats. Hopefully when theyre forced into a hardplace the UUP and the SDLP will engage in voting pacts in future elections to try and somehow keep the center ground together.

It is sad however to see how people are rejecting the peace proccess on both sides by punishing the parties that created it and supported it. It wasnt the DUP or SF/IRA that made the peace proccess - the collapse of the peace proccess and their increasing power isnt unconnected. Trimble was hung out to dry by Blair and Ahern - he staked his political career on a written guarantee from Tony that SF/IRA would have to decommission before entering power and he was sold out. SF/IRA gets invites to Chequers, the SDLP doesnt. At every turn the peace proccess has sought to humiliate and undermine the moderate parties that tried to make it work. I hope Tony and Bertie are enjoying the absolute mess theyve made of Northern Ireland.

A Dub in Glasgo

Murphy takes Newry & Armagh with a big swing

SF vote increased by 6.6% in Derry with the SDLP down 4%

jank

Eh this board shouldnt be used as a platform to lecture others on their political believes and what THEY beleive is right, especailly the stupid commments regards to the voters of Northern Ireland. IF you do that then your just as bad as them. The only difference is that your too stupid to know it

Excellent news. This will be a real triumph over adversity and the best possible answer to the thuggish antics and intimidation of Republican hoods in the area.

In a deliquent tribalised society, that's riven by sectarian fear and loathing

the rise of the all-island geographic absolutists and Protestant Jihad

repugnant of parties

COP YOURSELF ON!!!!!!

Sand

Eh this board shouldnt be used as a platform to lecture others on their political believes and what THEY beleive is right,

Oh - what is it for then? Its certainly not to resolve political disputes. Showing up peoples views as moronic is about as good as it gets here. And lets face it, people who vote SF/IRA and DUP arent going to get anything other than contempt - maybe pity if theyre lucky.

uberwolf

Jank - earthman has already addressed the language and tone being used. Could you leave it to the moderators please.

It is also within the remit of this thread to discuss interpretations of the results and likely consequences. If a divide appears here in topics I'll split.

edit: actually weeks ban for jank for personal abuse (on rereading the post)

A Dub in Glasgo

Sand wrote:

. And lets face it, people who vote SF/IRA and DUP arent going to get anything other than contempt - maybe pity if theyre lucky.

You don't believe in democracy then? Or is your version of democracy, only the people who vote the way you want will get accepted and not be slagged?

I have to say I did find the face on Peter Robinson amusing today when,I think it was Conor Murphy said that SF representatives from the 6 counties will sit in the proper parliament for Ireland , the Dáil when theres a united Ireland.

By the way steering through the meleé that is Northern Ireland politics and looking at the votes cast this time, theres no question but the "green" vote is growing.I've no doubt although others here will disagree with me, that within a decade or two, both camps there will be close to neck and neck.

I mean 8 "green" seats already out of 18 is kind of symtomatic of that trend.
There was a time when the "green" vote only held maybe a quarter of NI's westminister seats.

Thats a thought that as much as anything else that is driving moderate unionism towards the DUP.

oscarBravo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote:

You don't believe in democracy then? Or is your version of democracy, only the people who vote the way you want will get accepted and not be slagged?

Where in the definition of democracy does it say that if a majority [1] vote for something, it's not stupid and contemptible? Do you suppose opposition parties should fold their tents and disband their parties because more people voted for the other crowd?


[1] ...or whatever small percentage is required in FPTP voting.

Villain

Well the people of Northern Ireland have spoke and this is how the results look:

Seats   Votes         	%  	% Change from 2001 
UUP	1 	127,414 	17.8%  	-9.0%  
DUP 	9 	241,856 	33.7%  	+11.2%  
SF	5 	174,530 	24.3%  	+2.6%  
SDLP	3 	125,626 	17.5%  	-3.5%  
AP 	0 	28,291 		3.9%  	+0.3%  
Oth 	0 	19,885 		2.7% 	-1.9%

So the DUP have won over the Unionist vote in a big way with former First Minister David Trimble failing to get elected and the UUP now only have 1 seat.

Sinn Fein have increased their vote despite the large media coverage of the McCartney murder and the Northern Bank Robbery along with the bashing from McDowell etc. The SDLP have lost out to Sinn Fein but still have 3 seats.

So the rise of Sinn Fein continues in 1997 they got 2 seats then in 2001 they got 4 now they have 5. Over the same time scale their % share has gone from 16.1% to 21.7% and now to 24.3%. While the SDLP have gone from 24.1% in 1997 to 21.0% in 2001 and now to 17.5%.

These stats can't be ignored, Sinn Fein represent the majority of Nationalists and have been consistently growing their vote. So while posters come on here and bash Sinn Fein at every opportunity the majority of Nationalists who actually live in Northern Ireland support Sinn Fein.

Sinn Fein can and will deliver peace, it is now time that the DUP respected the wishes of the people of this Island and embraced the Good Friday Agreement.

This is a great day for Sinn Fein and a great day for Nationalists, it is time Bertie Ahern and Michael McDowell listened to the people of Northern Ireland and respected the Mandate they have given Sinn Fein.

oscarBravo

irish1 wrote:

This is a great day for Sinn Fein and a great day for Nationalists, it is time Bertie Ahern and Michael McDowell listened to the people of Northern Ireland and respected the Mandate they have given Sinn Fein.

I'll repeat a point I made in the other thread: I see no reason to respect a point of view just because a majority of a particular group of people express it.

If a BNP candidate gets elected in a particular constituency, does that automatically mean that all the darkies should go home?

Villain

oscarBravo wrote:

I'll repeat a point I made in the other thread: I see no reason to respect a point of view just because a majority of a particular group of people express it.

If a BNP candidate gets elected in a particular constituency, does that automatically mean that all the darkies should go home?

Well imo people should respect the choice of the electorate, they don't have to accept their choice but they should respect it. This works both ways btw the nationalists should respect the unionists choice as well.

mycroft

irish1 wrote:

So the DUP have won over the Unionist vote in a big way with former First Minister David Trimble failing to get elected and the UUP now only have 1 seat.

And this a good thing?

Sinn Fein have increased their vote despite the large media coverage of the McCartney murder and the Northern Bank Robbery along with the bashing from McDowell etc. The SDLP have lost out to Sinn Fein but still have 3 seats.

SF's increase was marginal to say the least I recal you saying the a similar dip in support during a recent opinion poll was within the margin of error. One could argue that SF failed to capitilise better on the SDLP's lack of real leadership coming into this, and it's gains are disappointing in this respect.

So the rise of Sinn Fein continues in 1997 they got 2 seats then in 2001 they got 4 now they have 5. Over the same time scale their % share has gone from 16.1% to 21.7% and now to 24.3%. While the SDLP have gone from 24.1% in 1997 to 21.0% in 2001 and now to 17.5%.

And the DUP have noticed a more significant rise........

These stats can't be ignored, Sinn Fein represent the majority of Nationalists and have been consistently growing their vote. So while posters come on here and bash Sinn Fein at every opportunity the majority of Nationalists who actually live in Northern Ireland support Sinn Fein.

So let me get this straight, we can't critise SF because they're more popular than the SDLP? By that rational, FF are above reproach, as are labour and george bush....

Sinn Fein can and will deliver peace, it is now time that the DUP respected the wishes of the people of this Island and embraced the Good Friday Agreement.

This is a great day for Sinn Fein and a great day for Nationalists, it is time Bertie Ahern and Michael McDowell listened to the people of Northern Ireland and respected the Mandate they have given Sinn Fein.

Um, how? You can proclaim this as a victory for SF, I look at this as a defeat for moderate unionism. But now the largest party in the north refuses to enter power sharing with SF, and their superior success means they're unlikely to change their pov because they'll see their success as a mandate to continue their policy.

On the ground this looks like a great day, but for the actual reality it means the peace process is worse off than ever before. Please explain how it is different.

mycroft

A Dub in Glasgo wrote:

You don't believe in democracy then? Or is your version of democracy, only the people who vote the way you want will get accepted and not be slagged?

I always do find a certain kind of Irony from people who support a party who have a paramilitary wing dedicated to bringing about politic change via physical force, now talking about a "lack of respect" for democracy.....

A Dub in Glasgo

oscarBravo wrote:

Where in the definition of democracy does it say that if a majority [1] vote for something, it's not stupid and contemptible? Do you suppose opposition parties should fold their tents and disband their parties because more people voted for the other crowd?

Well, it is up to each individual. If you think it is OK to describe the voters who elect an MP as somewhat contemptible or deservering of pity, that is entirely your choice. I see that attitude as someone who does not believe in the democratic will of the people.

There is a difference between the action of a political opposite who might not like the way the vote went and someone who does not believe that certain people deserve to exercise their rights without them being subjected to a slagging for having the audacity to vote for someone that the slagger does not agree with. I assume you know there is a difference and you are just playing devils advocate. Surely you cannot hold this type of disdain for the democratic process...?

[1] ...or whatever small percentage is required in FPTP voting.

Yep, agree with you there on the democratic credentials of FPTP. What about West Belfast with 70.5% of voters who some here view with contempt or pity? Do those people deserve this slagging?

A Dub in Glasgo

oscarBravo wrote:

I'll repeat a point I made in the other thread: I see no reason to respect a point of view just because a majority of a particular group of people express it.

And I will repeat my reply by linking to it

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=2713280&postcount=24

Maoltuile

Sand wrote:

If anything positive arises from this it may be cross community tactical voting to try and prevent terrrorists on one hand and extremists on the other gaining seats.

I'm wondering at the distinction you seem to be drawing. No-one should be under any illusions about the Provos, but the DUP are on the same hymn-sheet as the loyalist paramilitaries, the good Rev. McCrea wasn't averse to sharing a public platform with 'King Rat', not so long ago.

Hopefully when theyre forced into a hardplace the UUP and the SDLP will engage in voting pacts in future elections to try and somehow keep the center ground together.

Given Trimble's typically selfish and petulant attitude, I'd give no chance of that. Trimble has in the past called for votes to go to the DUP ahead of pro-Agreement parties like the SDLP(!)

(He famously responded to such a proposal by Alliance (in Assembly elections) by _demanding_ that the AP withdraw from all races, even ones they were more likely to win than the UUP)

is sad however to see how people are rejecting the peace proccess on both sides by punishing the parties that created it and supported it. It wasnt the DUP or SF/IRA that made the peace proccess - the collapse of the peace proccess and their increasing power isnt unconnected.

Oh, come on. Anyone who knows anything *knows* that it was Hume-Adams that started this. The UUP only came on because they were being leaned on by the Brits (who were in turn being leaned on by the Yanks).

Trimble was hung out to dry by Blair and Ahern - he staked his political career on a written guarantee from Tony that SF/IRA would have to decommission before entering power and he was sold out.

With Trimble as a "friend", the Agreement didn't need any enemies...

ishmael whale

About the best summing up of the result comes from Newton Emerson’s Portadown News last week.

http://www.portadownnews.com/02May05.htm
“One of Northern Ireland’s best-known institutions is set to disappear, it has emerged. ‘Sure It’s Only a Few Eejits Ruining it for the Rest of Us.’ has been a part of everyday life here for over 35 years, however from next week this much-loved staple will no longer be available.

irish1 wrote:

it is time Bertie Ahern and Michael McDowell listened to the people of Northern Ireland and respected the Mandate they have given Sinn Fein.

You seem to flip between respecting a mandate obtained in Northern Ireland, and respecting the all Ireland vote on the GFA with a little too much speed and too little reflection.

Certainly SF's mandate has to be acknowledged, but on these results it carries less weight that the DUP's mandate. So where does that leave you.