Expected success rate in STT's?

Hitman Actual

Guys, I haven't been able to play live for about a month, so I started to play a bit online to keep up some degree of sharpness (and to brush up on a few technical flaws!). I'm mostly playing STTs ($10-50$ level), 'cos the quick games suit me at the moment.

Anyway, just wondering what's a good return rate in these games, in terms of placings and 1st spots... I assume that, all players being equal, you should average 1 win in 9, but how should a good/excellent player fare out? (btw, not saying that I'm either good or excellent!)

While I'm on the subject, what about strategy? I tend to play a fairly tight/normal game early on, and open up my game as the levels increase and players get knocked out. Does this sound right, or should you get more involved earlier on?

NickyOD

As I was reading Doyle's section on internet poker - he made a thought I found interesting...I'm not sure if this is exactly what he said though

He said that in a typical SnG scenario - with 50/30/20 payout - your initial goal should be to make the money - not to win...he followed that up with the fact that he suggests playing very solid - straightforward poker to accomplish this goal...

I think both statements have merit...

1) Any ITM finish in an SnG is going to almost double you up (as opposed to MTTs - where you may need to finish high up to accomplish the same goal)...and - assuming you are playing a proper sized SnG for your bankroll - this can provide for a decent hourly rate...consistant ITM finishes can obviously make for a nice steady profit...

2) And since most players play SnGs too frenetically (and or are just plain bad) you can wait for them to make mistakes and pounce on them (in most setups)...

Certainly there are other thoughts - but this rather basic advice could be a good grounding for anyone looking for an edge in SnGs

I play a lot of SnGs and depending on the level I usually expect to average out at a ROI of 35% which is $15-20 for $50 SnGs. This would be a higher % at $20+2 and $30+3 SnGs. They can be very swingy. I have had up 7 1sts in a row and 16 games in a row OTM.

As Doyle says your aim should be to get to final 3 then see what happens. Don't push marginal edges too early, just play solid bookish poker and you will always come out a winner over time in SnGs.


____________________

Hectorjelly

I think you should play for 1st rather than just trying to get in the money, at the moment Im in on a bit of an stt quest; Im trying to play 2 thousand $25 stts this month. Ive been keeping track of both my ROI and ITM per 50 games.

Heres my results from the 1st 200 games of this month:

Games ROI ITM
1 - 50 32.55% 40.00%
51 - 100 29.27% 46.00%
101 - 150 1.45% 42.00%
151 - 200 45.64% 54.00%
201 - 250 3.25% 38.10%

The third batch despite having a similar ITM had a very low ROI, thats because I kept coming 2nd or 3rd. As you can see and Nicky mentioned they are very streaky, I once went on a 20 game out of the money sequence.

Those stats are from playing 6 $25 stts on VC at a time, so a higher ROI is definitely possible if you are just playing 1 or 2 at a time.

Rodge

Thats what I do and at the moment it is working very well.

I am playing $5 and $10 pot limit party poker SnG's and out of the last ~25 I have finished in the money in about 80% of them.

Very tight for the first few levels and then very aggressive when the blinds get tasty.

Get ITM first and then play like a lunatic seems to work well for me.

okidoki987

this crowd?
Go into www.ticketmaster.ie
search for "I keano" and check the banner on the LHS.

For those who can't get it, it's an add for
"Irisheyespoker.com, Ireland's no 1 poker room". Their words!
Playing now 1461 players on 136 tables.
All games in Euros and also has 5 card draw.

When I clicked on support,
the address comes up NET SUPPORT OU, TALLIN, ESTONIA!
Is that anywhere near Merrion Sq?

NickyOD

www.Irisheyespoker.com

ROFL! That site looks so bad, but they take neteller. I might move a small amount there just for a larf! :rolleyes:

Culchie

and some of you guys were laughing at me and dodgypoker.com !!

NickyOD

Culchie wrote:

and some of you guys were laughing at me and dodgypoker.com !!

This looks pretty bad. I can't find any info on their RNG certification. Do they have any?

BrendanB

I particularly like:

Support
NetSupport OÜ
Tallin
ESTONIA

Fax: +37 2 66 91 08 81
Email: support@irisheyespoker.com

footoes

Hectorjelly wrote:

...playing 6 $25 stts on VC at a time...

How long do you leave between starting one table and then starting the next?

Culchie

NickyOD wrote:

This looks pretty bad. I can't find any info on their RNG certification. Do they have any?

No, but don't worry about it, put in your money, on-line poker is not rigged, it's in nobody's interest

][cEMAN**

I've been playing a lot of STTs. I mostly stick to these rather than real money tables, as I know I can put people out in STT with a good hand, and not have them come back. It means you can put the better players out on a bad call, and mop up the weaker ones.

It seems to work pretty well when I stick to the one bracket (usually $3 tables for me), but I tend to get a $3 1st place, then go to the $10 table and have a go with my winnings. I might place 4th and not pull anything back. That's my fault for being impatient when I don't see people playing the $3.

The way I play though is to grind it out. Aim for 3rd position till you're down to the last 3, then make a run for 2nd, and then for 1st. I'll only really go for 1st early, if I make a big pull early in the game - like putting 2 people out on all in. It doesn't happen often, but it does happen enough.

To me online play is really just for practice. I know it's not the same as real life games, but i'm trying to work up to them. I've only withdrawn money to test the system so far, though I could have taken more out. The rest I have left, I tend to waste when i'm bored and just feel like playing for the hell of it. To me it's nothing to lose it (small amounts) so I don't respect it enough and it disappears.

I know most say don't play out of your pocket range, but I think playing for an amount that is close to that you can't afford to lose, gives you just enough of a push to drive to win. Maybe it's just me - i'm lazy anyway.

Hitman Actual

Iceman, thanks for getting my thread back on topic... and you other guys, what the hell are you doing here?

I'm curious about the marginal edge thing... even though I say I play tight early on, I'm still prepared to take any edge going... e.g. if I thought someone was moving with AK, I'd call with 22, etc.

NickyOD

lenny_leonard wrote:

Iceman, thanks for getting my thread back on topic... and you other guys, what the hell are you doing here?

I'm curious about the marginal edge thing... even though I say I play tight early on, I'm still prepared to take any edge going... e.g. if I thought someone was moving with AK, I'd call with 22, etc.

There is a time to take a coinflip and there's a time to fold them. Early on you certainly shouldn't be committing all your chips preflop with 22 same way you wouldn't do it early in a tournament. There's no shame in folding a large range of big hands preflop in certain situations. I have often folded JJ even QQ preflop when reraised all in because I was getting better EV by folding for the simple reason that I was still in much better shape than the shortstacks if I folded.

Dub13

I start playing $5 S&Gs and will not move up ontill I have 9 times the buy in at the next level so when I have 9 x $10 I move up and so on.I use this system even if I dont have to (say if I have a load of cash in an account) as its a good way to get used to building up a bankroll.It can be slow and sometimes you have to drop down a level but it works for me.

When I get to the $25/$30 level I will cash out when I have about 500 and leave $45/50 ( 9 x $5) and start again.

sonneti

I play tight in the first few rounds if I get a hand I can safely double on i'll take it. Generally wait about until the blinds get to the 50-100, play looser raising against the big stacks & tighter against the smaller stacks. The idea being the medium-bigger stacks will not want to get involved in any big hands & not doubling any small stacks, because the longer they are in.. the more I can rely on the medium/big stacks let me rob them

Out of the last 20 or so $50 STT's i've cashed about 80% of the time, 5 wins, 3 or 4 second places and 6 or 7 thirds.. my plan is to take a real stab at finishing first so I generally bust out or win more often. However this is a really short sample & obviously im on a bit of a streak but I'd hope to average out around 40% In the money.

NickyOD

Dub13 wrote:

When I get to the $25/$30 level I will cash out when I have about 500 and leave $45/50 ( 9 x $5) and start again.

I'd find that pretty frustrating dropping back down all the time. I'd prefer to be playing at the highest level I can in order to maximise my profits.

At the moment I've got 1K invested on Pokerstars and I'm playing 30+3 SnGs, The plan is to use the profit I make during the week to play some MTTs and if I'm up enough at the end of the week cash back down to 1K. I'm amazed so many people like to use their visa so often. There are so many extra charges you have to deal with when you do. I made 1 deposit at the beginning of the year and that's it atleast until Christmas.

okidoki987

Sorry my fault.
Came back from lunch with a couple of pints on board
and thought I had started a new thread.

Dub13

NickyOD wrote:

I'd find that pretty frustrating dropping back down all the time. .

It can be frustrating when I drop back down but its great practise getting back up.With a big mortgage and two kids both under 2 and another one on the way soon I cant justify big swings.But I am well up for the year.So it works for me.

][cEMAN**

Dub13 wrote:

I start playing $5 S&Gs and will not move up ontill I have 9 times the buy in at the next level so when I have 9 x $10 I move up and so on.I use this system even if I dont have to (say if I have a load of cash in an account) as its a good way to get used to building up a bankroll.It can be slow and sometimes you have to drop down a level but it works for me.

When I get to the $25/$30 level I will cash out when I have about 500 and leave $45/50 ( 9 x $5) and start again.

Good idea that. 9x is 2x1st in any STT (4.5x buy in). I must try it. I tend to jump up the stakes too quickly and lose what I have.

It'll take longer to grind out, but could pay off more in the end

Dub13

It is a grind....but it will improve your game,you just have to have patience and try to keep track of your results.And dont be tempted to jump up a level because you have a big win in a cash game....as this defies the whole point.Look at moving up levels like you were a football team moving up divisions,only in this system when you get to the top division you get relegated back down to the bottom

][cEMAN**

I think I made a mistake starting in the $1 STTs last night to work from $23 to $27 (9x $3) as I ran into players going all in with 67o and pulling the greatest luck against bullets

Strangely i've noticed that it's more on the lower buy-in STTs that pokers, straight flushes, and royal flushes happen. And with VC the weaker hand always seems to win in a straight heads up (unless it's something obvious like AA v AK and a pair of kings doesn't drop)

Up and down a bit anyway, and back on $23 . Going to give it another try on $2 tonight before I move up to $3.

Gratifying thing with the STTs is always the very last hand when you slow play an Ace high flush or a house and the other guy who's been playing tight the whole game, goes all in with a slightly weaker hand. I can't help but type gg before the cards come up (right after he's gone all in).

Dub13

You get alot of this in the lower limit games,I never play below $3 or over the last few weeks $5.But even playing against these "overzealous" players will inprove your allround game,as you do come across people like this the odd time in the bigger games.

Keep us up to date on how you get on.

ZZR1100

i used to play mainly the 20 / 30 entry stts . now mostly the 50 / 100 . i am ITM about 50% in the 50 but the in the 100 the game is much much tougher.there is simply no comparison to play a 100 and 20/30 but the experiance u gain there is worth it.even if u normally play only 20s u should invest a couple of hundred in a few of these games and u will find the lower limits a lot easier to beat after .. u might even win

Krusty_Clown

I stick to the $5 and $10 STTs, with occasional ventures into the $15s, and I stick to these as I can't stand losing.. I have good win rates at these levels..
But, you have to suffer a lot of poor play, and a lot of abuse too!

Was playing a $10 STT yesterday, and had AJs. I raised to about 400 (4 x BB). Mid position player doubles my raise, and I put him all-in (he had been playing poorly during the game).. I was big-stack and had a big lead on everone else. He reveals KTs. I flopped the flush to put him out of the game, and had to ignore his comments about being a lucky f***er for the next 10 minutes (although I did egg him on a little bit ). Re-raising KTs into the big stack and I'm lucky

][cEMAN**

OK how i'm getting on. BAD! TBH after this cash runs out i'm walking away from VC and trying somewhere else cause i'm seeing far too much BS tbh

I've won 1 STT in the last 2 days because i'm seeing AA beaten by 53, and just got put out by A6 v 86 all in pre flop cause I was low on cash. What comes up on the board but the rest of the straight

Yeah yeah, I know "that's poker", but statistically this amount of bad beats from those kinda ****ty hands shouldn't be possible

Anywhere else that people don't feel they're getting ****ed over?

*edit* I just saw another one of those pauses in VC

AX v JX both all in. First 3 come up blank, then it pauses...and turn and river BOTH come up J!

henbane

' wrote:

[cEMAN**']Yeah yeah, I know "that's poker", but statistically this amount of bad beats from those kinda ****ty hands shouldn't be possible

Prove it with a sample size large enough to justify your whinging.

roryc

I totally agree. Im always on PPP and its as if they make the hands more interesting. Im not complaining about it, because im on the good side of a bad beat just as often as im not, but it seems as if people always seem to hit their cards. The amount of times there will be 1 or 2 outs to hit and they come out on the river is unreal.
Also, your right in saying that the worse hand usually wins in a straight heads up. AK will lose to AQ or Ax will lose to QJ. Its not as if bullets will lose to 27o but it seems as if the marginally worse hand will usually win.
Finally as some examples of how online poker seems to deal much better hands; in my brief time as a regular poker player (2 years) I have been lucky enough to see only 2 straight flushes and less than 10 pokers in a live game. However within one month of playing online I myself have received two straight flushes and at least 3 pokers, and I have seen 1 royal flush and numerous straight flushes/pokers whilst playing.
Again, I'm not complaining about this as I'm making money, but surely this is a bit odd. Its as if the hands are made more 'interesting' so as to make people come back. Don't get me wrong I'm not accusing PPP of anything but its all just a bit strange isin't it?

DapperGent

' wrote:

[cEMAN**']Yeah yeah, I know "that's poker", but statistically this amount of bad beats from those kinda ****ty hands shouldn't be possible

lol

roryc wrote:

Also, your right in saying that the worse hand usually wins in a straight heads up. AK will lose to AQ or Ax will lose to QJ.

lol

Davey Devil

Can we make "online poker is rigged" posts a banable offence in the charter??

However offline poker is definatly rigged.

Last time I was in the Fitz I was knocked out with AQ vs A9, my Kings and Queens were beaten earlier in the night. I better tell Luke the next time I'm in, something is not right here. :rolleyes:

Hectorjelly

Violaters should be punished by death, or at the least extreme mockery.

][cEMAN**

Fair enough. I'm out of line. I'm just really fecked off at 2 straight days of this

The only way I seem to be winning atm is pot intimidation.

Hey, expect a bit of whining from me. I'm a n00b. I don't know what i'm talking about.

BrendanB

I don't want to dignify the 'that's [INSERT SITE HERE] for ya', so I won't.

Seriously, going on tilt on bad beats the easiest way to drop all your money very quickly. I've seen it time after time both working and playing where ordinary strong players suddenly become muppets after a bad beat. You have to be honest with yourself, if you find yourself on tilt get up and get out of the game. I still drop more money after a bad beat than in the hand itself.

And spare a thought for TJ Cloutier. Probably the strongest tournament player of his generation not to have won the big one, about to fulfill a life long ambition and be able to retire satisfied, his AQ vs Jesus' A9. River - 3 outs. 9. Our ones aren't so bad.

Lafortezza

BrendanB wrote:

And spare a thought for TJ Cloutier. Probably the strongest tournament player of his generation not to have won the big one, about to fulfill a life long ambition and be able to retire satisfied, his AQ vs Jesus' A9. River - 3 outs. 9. Our ones aren't so bad.

I remember reading about that in Positively 5th St.
Cloutier had Ferguson's number when they were headsup and was slowly winning it. After it was over TJ didn't have one complaint or gripe.

DapperGent

lafortezza wrote:

After it was over TJ didn't have one complaint or gripe.

This is because Coultier is a poker player.

Dub13

Iceman,
You have be able to take the bad beats,as one of the pros said (cant remember who) "its not how you played the bad beat hand its how you play the next hand thats what matters" great poker quote.At the moment you are only playing online and the bad beats are getting to you,Imagen what a bad beat feels like if you are after missing a big match on TV driving into the fitz played for a few hours hit a bad beat come out into the pissing rain at 2 in the morning when you should be in bed....drive home and only get 3/4 hours sleep.Add onto that the other half moaning into your ear about this been the 3 night this week you are off playing cards,and her insisting on getting up early in the morning and taken the baby's to the Zoo so we can all spend time together.Now this is a BAD BEAT.


{ rant over }

][cEMAN**

soz,ul,gg

No, you're right. I usually take it pretty decently, throw my hands in the air as if to say "that's life" and move onto the next table. I guess 2 days straight of this just got to me. Add to the fact that I am inexperienced, and I just haven't seen enough hands (only about 3000 so far in real money STTs) to be able to say that this shouldn't happen.

Though tbh I haven't really come on much about bad beats, more about asking about different situations and some advice. Some i've gotten answers to, some not. So once in a while, I think i'm allowed to call a bad beat or 2 I guess I just need to relax before posting, so I can do it with a cool head and not sound like a child crying for its dummy.

Culchie

Paul (Dub13)...

From what I can make out from what you were saying about 2 kids under 3 and a third on the way....... it's a good job you're away 3 nights a week playing poker !!! .... The Pope would approve of your family planning technique !!

Dub13

What can I say....Poker is the way I like to relax...it does not allways work out that way but I try.

Culchie wrote:

The Pope would approve of your family planning technique !!

I am sure he would....but he mite have a problem with some other things I get up to .