Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Autumn 2025

Meteorite58 · 17-10-2025 06:49PM

Well the settled spell coming to an end with a LP off the SW / W sending in its associated active weather fronts which are showing fairly high Theta E & W readings in the frontal airmass , very moisture rich mild air with lower and deeper shear available and Jet nearby all aiding vorticity and giving decent lapse rates, lifted index highest in the SW and moving across the country less so but could still carry storms inland. Wil see how much activity is off the SW early tomorrow evening as it approaches the coasts from the SW /W / S , should have enough instability to make it inland, will see charts tomorrow for finer details.

Models differing a bit showing some heavy falls along the S over towards Waterford, some big rainfall on the mountain's and areas with higher ground, could be heavy runoff later Sat into Sun especially from thunderstorms which may be a bit more active up over mountain's aided by topographical lift .

Temps increasing Sat evening getting up around 14 to 15C overnight with DP's just below that so humid.

ECM's various indices showing fairly active storms just off the SW moving inland. Could be most active in the SW and along Southern counties but all of Munster has some chance of a storm and also the W and maybe as far over as South Leinster. Night time storms too so maybe some pics.

JanuarySnowstor · 17-10-2025 09:28PM

Very interesting, a bit odd that Met Eireann not saying anything about thunderstorms

igCorcaigh · 18-10-2025 11:51AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123914492#Comment_123914492

They are now:

JanuarySnowstor · 18-10-2025 12:17PM

Latest harmonie is swinging back to last night's charts. Looks torrential across the South after midnight

ballyargus · 18-10-2025 01:51PM

What are the chances of a warning for Wicklow - even a yellow?

igCorcaigh · 18-10-2025 06:44PM

Will they visit us at all?

JanuarySnowstor · 18-10-2025 06:46PM

Very nasty day in Cork and really heavy now eventhough the radar isn't showing it. When you think the proper stuff is way out West you do really wonder could flooding be a real concern for the South Coast.

Oscar Bravo · 18-10-2025 07:20PM

A very wet night in the south. 8pm at Cork Airport. South Easterly gusting 23 knots ,2km vis, moderate rain,cloud broken at 200 ft.

EICK 181900Z 15023KT 2000 RA BKN002 13/13 Q1005 NOSIG

JanuarySnowstor · 18-10-2025 07:38PM

Lots of sparks off to our Southwest. If anything gaining intensity over the last 20mins. I've a gut that somewhere in the Southwest will get hammered between 11pm and 3am tonight

aisling86 · 18-10-2025 08:42PM

hopefully near me! Would love a good light show

Meteorite58 · 18-10-2025 10:37PM

The heavier rain arriving now into the SW but nothing firing up apart from the few sferics near the coast. 15.3C here near Tralee now. Just 4.8mm so far today, rain seems to have been lighter than forecast so far, will see what comes through overnight.