Looking ahead at the potential Irish team/bench/squad/backup for RWC27

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123696404#Comment_123696404

An obvious answer is, how do you expect them to become "proven"?

But my main point - the issue isn't that this is predominantly the 23 for any single game. The issue that there is generally very little deviation at all, outside of retirement / injury. Particularly during the last Autumn Internationals where I felt a lot more should have happened, given it seems the most opportune to time experiment vs Tier 1 oppositions in a RWC cycle.

I've mentioned it before but prior to 2023 RWC, all of 30-odd minutes was given to players outside the 4 back-row incumbents in 19 Tier 1 Tests. That's kinda nuts.

In the AI's just past, Doris played every minute. VdF started all 4 Tests. Craig Casey, now our de facto 2nd choice 9, got all of 22 minutes against Tier 1 opposition. Nash, in the squad, got 0 gametime. Cian Healy benched in each of the Tier 1 games.

Is it too much to suggest that some of Coombes, McCann, Prendergast, Nash, Boyle should've seen more - in some cases, any - gametime? And this is all just stuff off the top of my head.

Whatever way you want to slice it, the age profile of the squad isn't in a particularly good place. And this is from someone who defended Farrell with regards age profile of the squad in the 2023 6 Nations.

It's entirely possible to want to see a faster pace of change that also isn't an "all out clear out" if some changes are done game on game. The legitimate worry is that we missed one prime window in the Autumn Internationals.

Morgans

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123696724#Comment_123696724

Has Osbourne played in four different positions for Leinster with not only henshaw and ringrose but Barrett and ioane ahead of him. Given how these central contracts are given out and how minutes are managed, the incumbents are always likely to play the games that matter and Osborne will be forced to prove he is the best centre in Ireland playing beside harry byrne behind McGrath /gunne tector etc. All players of course keen to make a statement

You are explaining the problem. There is a growing number of promising careers being hindered by the policy. Let's see if 34 year old aki improves for next world cup. We are paying him after all.

If tadgh beirne had to wait in line at Leinster we wouldn't have the player we have now.

Morgans

"Having a look" isn't going to cut it unfortunately.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123696724#Comment_123696724

That's the problem though. We can't build depth by not playing other lads. Something has to give. Osborne for example, had to contend with Barrett coming in, which further impeded his ability to push for a starting centre shirt. We can see he's immensely talented, and that Henshaw and Aki have significantly declined, yet Farrell persists with the known quantity.

If a younger guy can deliver 80% of the best of the incumbent ahead of him, then I think we should be aggressive in backing them. Bealham has been in great form, and ought to be the starter, yet I would look to push Clarkson ahead of him for the bench spot. We're more likely to benefit from it going forward.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123696909#Comment_123696909

I posted this list last October before the AI's. You can presumably add 1 to everyone's age now (more of less), and I've added the games, starts and minutes they've played in since then during last season for Ireland. The top 3 have now retired, but this is a lot of minutes going to guys 30+:

Name	Age	Games	Starts	Mins
Cian Healy	37	6	0	65
Peter O'Mahony	35	7	3	262
Conor Murray	35	7	0	84
Finlay Bealham	34	9	8	475
Bundee Aki	34	8	6	430
Rob Herring	34	3	0	53
Tadhg Beirne	33	9	9	711
Stuart McCloskey	32	3	2	160
Tadhg Furlong	32	1	0	34
Iain Henderson	32	4	0	99
JGP	32	8	8	565
Jack Conan	32	5	2	220
James Lowe	32	7	7	560
Robbie Henshaw	31	8	7	520
Josh Van Der Flier	31	9	9	632
Garry Ringrose	30	7	5	389

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123696909#Comment_123696909

 Osborne for example, had to contend with Barrett coming in, which further impeded his ability to push for a starting centre shirt. 

"Further" is a key word there. Yes, he was behind Barrett, but also Ringrose and Henshaw. Farrell might be persisting with the known quantity, but so is Cullen - are they both wrong?

I like your idea of playing a younger guy if he's 80% of the level of the guy ahead of him, I just question how many players we have who would fit that bill. And I think what people are missing is that Farrell is not afraid to pick younger guys ahead of established older players, if they're good enough. He never has been.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123697171#Comment_123697171

I do think Cullen has also been guilty at times for persisting with lads, but the club game naturally lends itself to more opportunity to give lads a go. For Osborne specifically, I think he suffered for game time in the centre, due to the knock on effect of Barrett being there. Games that Henshaw would've started, Barrett did, which meant other lower level games that Henshaw might not normally have played in, were no longer available. Osborne should've been the starting 12 by the playoffs last year imo, his form and obvious talent ought to have been accommodated.

I like your idea of playing a younger guy if he's 80% of the level of the guy ahead of him, I just question how many players we have who would fit that bill.

I take your point here, and would agree that Farrell has given a lot of guys games, but has tended to revert to the conservative option in games that matter. Putting Aki or McCloskey on the bench ahead of a JOB or Osborne. Rarely, if ever subbing off JGP. The well discussed failures to play any other backrow options this past Nov ahead of POM. I think there needs to be an element of being willing to take a punch, to give one. Risk a potentially poorer performance now to deliver better ones when it matters later, rather than hope an aged star can go to the well one more time.

Trey13

I think with Leinster and Ireland there has been an issue with being too loyal to players. We tend to give players a real chance at personal milestones and big send offs. I feel like in other countries they're maybe just moved on a bit quicker. Oddly enough though, South Africa's squad is really getting on now - I'd be interested to see how they go in this years rugby championship.

ShineyShiney

Irish rugby is conservative both by nature and necessity. Anyone with a central contract will travel regardless of form, age or public opinion. Writing off international players because of age isn't really a norm in Irish rugby. I would be exceptionally surprised if we were all of a sudden to discover 7 props of sufficient quality to dispense with proven performers like Furlong or Bealham despite their age. Now I'm not saying they will be starting but one of them at least will fill the Cian Healy role in last years squad imo.

With regard to the wider squad, evolution not revolution and its an ongoing thing. Plenty of new caps this year.

Lost Ormond

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123697211#Comment_123697211

On the back row you could say the same about a few others not simply POM. Farrell has consistently picked the same few players even when he could have given others a shot,

I totally agree about Cullen and persisting with lads but thats nature as a coach. you will have favourites. and its natural you will favour others. I dont think you should look at choosing a player if theyre 80% but all depends on age of player ahead/potential of younger player

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123700466#Comment_123700466

Anyone with a central contract will travel regardless of form, age or public opinion.

For the umpteenth time, this is simply not true. It is just rare because the players on central contracts tend to be our best players and we don't generally have the depth for them to drop out of squads.

bilston

The whole evolution v revolution debate has been around for over 20 years.

The last time we used to make wholesale changes to the Ireland team was in the 90s and we were s***

I doubt any nation has punched above their weight as consistently as Ireland this century. Yes Wales had a great generation of players but our level has been middling to good to excellent over 3 generations of players now from the BOD, POC, ROG, Wallace to Kearney, Heaslip, Murray, O'Mahony, Best and Sexton to the current crop.

I don't think we're going to change our approach now. If there are better players available now than what we have then it will show at URC and European level and they'll get picked by Ireland on merit.

As far as bringing through younger guys quicker I'd suggest the provinces (and it's probably primarily Leinster we're talking about for now) loan half a dozen guys around the 20/21/22 age bracket each season.

Tommybojangles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123701973#Comment_123701973

This message should be pinned at the top of the rugby forum really. I've been reading this forum on and off since about 07/09 and this is constanly debated. From eddie to Kidney to Schmidt to Farrell. "It's harder to get off the team than on it" and in that time we've been more successful than ever before by some distance. The world cup QF issue will alwasy be rasied as a counter but looking at 2023 as the most recent I don't think you can really back up an argument that more rotation inthe 4 years leading up to the world cup would have helped us. We had a strong group who were seen as the best in the world at times in the lead up and everything was building to the World Cup, lost to NZ by a score. **** happens.

There will be a fari bit of turnover in the next 2 years with retirements and injury, as there always is. One or 2 palyers will push their way into the team ahead of the incumbents, we'll remain strong, but unfortunately it will be very hard to get back to the heights of Mid 2022 into 2023 which is probably a peak that will be very hard to emulate but that was down to having really unbelieveable and irreplaceable paleyrs at their peak

Jump_In_Jack

Just looking at the 6 Nations and Summer squads, and team selection, below is a basic pecking order, or close enough to consider at least. I think in the Autumn Internationals we should be reducing the minutes of the players in bold, and increasing the minutes of the players in Italics.

The 4 matches, basic plan might be: NZ in Chicago - full team, Japan - nobody that played a lot of minutes in Chicago, Aus - a close to full team rotating where there are a few tight calls or injuries, SA - full team barring injuries but taking into account performances in the preceding matches and rewarding form where appropriate.

LHP: Porter, Boyle, Milne, P McCarthy
HKR: Sheehan, Kelleher, G McCarthy, Stewart
THP: Furlong, Bealham, Clarkson, Aungier, O’Toole, Wilson
LHL: Beirne, Henderson, Izuchuwu, Ahern
THL: J McCarthy, Ryan, D Murray
BSF: Baird, Prendergast, Deegan
OSF: Van der Flier, Timoney, Kendellen
No8: Doris, Conan, Coombes, McNabney
SHF: Gibson-Park, Casey, B Murphy, Doak
OHF: S Prendergast, Crowley
LWG: Lowe, Stockdale, Bolton, Kilgallen
ICE: Aki, Henshaw, McCloskey, Frawley
OCE: Ringrose, Osborne, Gavin, Postlethwaite
RWG: Hansen, T O’Brien, Nash
FBK: Keenan, J O’Brien

Where this will become important is when we get to a world cup and realise that players can't play every minute, and we have to deal with less cohesion from match to match. The players slotting in might be unfamiliar with the guys lining out beside them but we need to get better at adapting to these changes, particularly with the way the next World Cup pools will be a bit weaker than before with more teams and more pools and an extra knockout round. There's no way to keep the same 15 and 23 playing every minute, and there could be a week or two break between matches so players will have to be ready for that.

Jump_In_Jack

Based on previous post, example plan for spreading minutes around more in the Autumn Internationals (and it won't be exact given some players may not be available through injury):

Team for NZ in Chicago:
(Plan for Aki to sub off at 50, Ringrose to shift in to 12, Osborne in at 13)
LHP: Porter, Boyle
HKR: Sheehan, Kelleher
THP: Furlong, Bealham
LHL: Beirne
THL: J McCarthy, Ryan
BSF: Baird
OSF: Van der Flier
No8: Doris (Capt.), Conan
SHF: Gibson-Park, Casey
OHF: S Prendergast, Crowley
LWG: Lowe
ICE: Aki
OCE: Ringrose, Osborne
RWG: Hansen
FBK: Keenan

Team for Japan: (6-2 bench)
(Plan for Frawley to move to 10 with 30 to go, with Osborne shifting in to 12 and Gavin in at 13.
Plan for Henderson to shift to THL with 30 to go, D Murray to empty the tank for 50 mins, Ahern in at LHL for last 30)
LHP: Boyle, Milne
HKR: Kelleher, G McCarthy
THP: Clarkson, Aungier
LHL: Henderson (Capt.), Ahern
THL: D Murray
BSF: Deegan, C Prendergast
OSF: Timoney, Kendellen
No8: Coombes
SHF: B Murphy, Casey
OHF: Crowley
LWG: Stockdale
ICE: Frawley
OCE: Osborne, Gavin
RWG: T O’Brien
FBK: J O’Brien

Team for Aus:
LHP: Boyle, Porter
HKR: Kelleher, Sheehan
THP: Bealham, Furlong
LHL: Izuchukwu
THL: J McCarthy
BSF: C Prendergast, Ahern
OSF: Timoney
No8: Conan, Doris
SHF: Casey (Capt.), Gibson-Park
OHF: S Prendergast, Frawley
LWG: Lowe
ICE: Henshaw
OCE: Osborne, Gavin
RWG: Hansen
FBK: Keenan

Team for SA:
LHP: Porter, Milne
HKR: Sheehan, G McCarthy
THP: Furlong, Clarkson
LHL: Beirne
THL: Ryan, J McCarthy
BSF: Baird
OSF: Van der Flier
No8: Doris (Capt.), Coombes
SHF: Gibson-Park, B Murphy
OHF: Crowley, S Prendergast
LWG: Stockdale
ICE: Aki, McCloskey
OCE: Ringrose
RWG: T O’Brien
FBK: J O’Brien

Edited here and there after considering the spread of minutes more carefully.

Cosmo Kramer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123696442#Comment_123696442

Two of our provinces finished in the bottom four of the URC this season. We don't need to be sending players anywhere outside Ireland, if they are good enough to play and ambitious enough to get out of their comfort zone and head north or west, they'll get plenty of game time here.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123704289#Comment_123704289

I don't think Aki or Henshaw should play in any of these games. We have a wealth of talent coming through in the centres. It would be criminal to waste minutes on guys who are clearly past their best.

Cosmo Kramer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123696766#Comment_123696766

To be honest, neither are good enough to be anything other than injury cover.

Nash, in particular, is 28 and nowhere near good enough to ever challenge for a first 15 place for Ireland. He was like a fish up a tree in the France game this year.

Realistically we'll likely have made two or three changes to our starting 15 by the World Cup. Four at an absolute push. Baird, Osborne, maybe Casey or an O'Brien and we might shuffle around the back row and end up playing Doris at 7. That's about it.

In terms of squad players Clarkson may have replaced Bealham, McCarthy may have replaced Kelleher and obviously a new back up loose head, which will probably be Boyle. Hugh Gavin could be in and around the squad as well and maybe Shayne Bolton or Kilgallon. Cian Prendergast won't be far away from our best 23. Ulster looks to be more or less a write off.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123704373#Comment_123704373

Fair to say Nash wasn't the only one that played poorly that day, in what was Ireland's worst performance in a number of years, imo.

But more broadly, I think it's a bit premature - particularly in Ahern's case - to be ruling them out as only injury cover. JGP, for example, was 28 before he got his first Ireland cap, a surprise in the main because Luke McGrath was still ahead of him provincially and he hadn't been in Andy Farrell's first squad.

Players can improve, even later into their career. Ahern was excellent at the end of last season. It's a big season for him but at 25, I still think he could force himself into the Ireland reckoning.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123703676#Comment_123703676

I don't know if you've omitted Henderson or just forgot him but I think his selection/non-selection will be interesting. He was 'rested' for the tour to Georgia and Portugal, let's see if anyone took the opportunity to get ahead of him.

FtD v2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123704439#Comment_123704439

Thomas Ahern is absolutely still in the Ireland reckoning. He’s a freak athlete who can be incredibly disruptive at his best.

Feel like he needs a settled season where he gets to focus on a position to some extent and hopefully stay injury free.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123704443#Comment_123704443

Henderson is done, I'm not sure he's even HC standard anymore. Hopefully Aherne will get some luck with health, he could be excellent. Is like to see Soroka push on this season, he has a level of physicality that we could do with.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123704439#Comment_123704439

Definitely wouldn't rule out Ahern but I think we know who and what Nash is at this point. He's an absolutely fine winger who wont let anyone down at international level but hes never going to be a mainstay in the team. I just cant picture him developing a playmaker ability off the wing at this point.

darkened_scrum

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123705511#Comment_123705511

He could absolutely let you down, he doesn't have anywhere near the necessary quality for international rugby.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123705681#Comment_123705681

Overstating it. He started every game, and played well, in the 2024 6 Nations win, for example.

Ultimately, with our new playing style where we kick earlier and more often, we have less of a need for play-making from our wingers. He's better in the air (and has more pace) than both Lowe and Hansen. The change to the escort laws really suit him.

He may never be a long-term starter, but he's far better than you're giving him credit for.

Former Former Former

Nash's main problem is the last three people to wear the 14 jersey do not include him, so it looks like his position as Hansen's back-up has slipped, but he's still a very decent winger.

This should be a big year for Ahern. With POM gone for both Munster and Ireland, and turning 26, this is as good an opportunity as he's going get to move up the rankings; it will be interesting to see which of him, Izuchukwu and Prendergast emerges in front come November and whether any can usurp Baird.

Openside is the most interesting. Van der Flier will be 33 at the end of the season and while he's still playing well, he'll be 34 come the RWC with no obvious replacement. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of blindsides shoehorned in there in November.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123705944#Comment_123705944

VdF has started 39 out of the last 43 Test prior to this Summer tour when he was with the Lions; the 4 times he didn't were:

• Doris vs Italy in 2023/24 6 Nations
• POM vs Romania in RWC
• Doris vs Italy in RWC Warm-ups
• Timoney vs Fiji in 2022/23 AI's

It speaks to VdF's robustness, but feel we should have seen some freshness there during the AI's. Still think Connors could be an option if he can stay injury free, and Hodnett had a better season 2 years ago than last but still think he deserved a cap within the last 2 seasons. Timoney also in the picture.

I wouldn't be against seeing a back-row of 6. Baird, 7. Doris and 8. Coombes tho, which imo would then allow you play McCarthy and Beirne in the 2nd row.

Jump_In_Jack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123704289#Comment_123704289

So, after taking a bit of time to consider how best to spread around the minutes, finalised a basic outline in the previous post.

As it became a bit too complicated to figure out just in my head, I put it all down in a spread sheet to total up the minutes, and came to the following rules naturally:
1) No player traveling and starting in Chicago should be involved against Japan.
2) No player should play 80 minutes in back to back matches
3) No player should be making more than 3 appearances over the 4 matches.
4) No player should exceed 2 starts.
5) No player should exceed 160 minutes.

Even after settling on the minutes per player, still left with doubts about giving minutes to Henderson, Aki, Henshaw and McCloskey. Perhaps could give more minutes to more players on the fringe of the squad.
I think the IRFU should have organised to give those players a 6-8 month sabbatical this season (Basically a break up to Christmas, and only club rugby after that to the end of the season, not be part of the 6 Nations nor the summer internationals), if they think they can push themselves to still be available for the 2027 RWC.

Downlinz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123700880#Comment_123700880

Central contracts are also used as an assurance to sponsors that players will be involved with the national setup for the duration. If a major sponsor such as Vodafone or Energia funded and produced a 6-month advertising campaign centered on Robbie Henshaw only for the player to be frozen out of squads they'd be unhappy with their investment to say the least and it'd become commercially damaging to the IRFU if they were seen as not upholding their assurance.

Ben Bailey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123706925#Comment_123706925

I don't follow this rationale. If, for example, Henshaw was injured and unavailable would the sponsors not suffer equally ?. The risks of tying your commercial image to any entity that may not be entirely reliable is a known risk, and arguably greater when that entity is a sportsperson or team.