Tesla Talk 2

...Ghost...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123690987#Comment_123690987

You're wrong. You're looking at this in a very negative way. Do you have a general dislike for the brand, or indeed the CEO?

In a steady market, with few exceptions, any car will lose half its value at the 3 year mark. You are not recognising that a base Model 3 RWD this time 3 years ago cost €55k. How do I know? I bought one in Aug (collected Sep) 2022 for a shade under €55k. Prices of cars were effin' insane if you could even get your hands on one!

I had ordered a new Leaf Tekna from Windsor in April 2022. Nissan went from a month to delivery, to 3 months, to more than a year. Plus, I was facing increased prices and loss of 0% finance to boot. Year old models were selling above the price of a new one!!! I couldn't even get my hands on a new MG5 with delivery estimates of 8+ months. I looked at several brands, VW, Mercedes, BMW and nobody had anything new, ready to go. The BMW i4 was also hitting stellar prices with customers who had ordered and agreed pricing with dealerships getting shafted with demands of thousands more euros or lose the order. It was insane and that's the time of the market we are now comparing with 3 year old EVs. I ordered and took delivery of the Model 3 within a month. Delighted, despite spending more than I wanted.

I sold my Model 3 RWD for €22.5k a month ago, with a solid €23.5k offer after I took a deposit a day or two after advertising it, before the buyer had even seen the car and who was fully aware it had a rear bumper repair. I had no less than 10 serious offers and a queue of people for the car had the sale fallen through. I'm confident it would have sold for €25k, but let's take the actual sale price of €22.5k. Mileage was 69k.

In your eyes, I lost €32.5k or 60%. I contend that I could have sold the car for €25k, but wanted no hassle, quick sale as always. The depreciation would have been 55%, much closer to the expected 50% in 3 years, but let's stick with the actual sales figure.

A new Model 3 RWD is €37.5k. That's only €15k to trade up from my 3 year old car. Half the value of €37.5k is €18.75k. So, considering we are talking about a pre-facelift model car here and it is still selling for way above half the price of a new Model 3 RWD today. I would call that a pretty good deal. The sums might change for better or worse if you want to change brand, which most people don't from car to car, especially those who don't sell privately. The fact is you can look at the problem of depreciation in several ways. The fact remains that it only matters if and when you sell the car and what is the actual cost to change. Almost nobody sells a car without buying another.

Personally I wouldn't have sold my car for several more years and so I wouldn't have realised any depreciation until then, by which point it wouldn't have mattered at all. However, circumstances forced my hand and I needed something bigger/taller. I stuck with Tesla and got a new Model Y. I expect it to be worth half of what it is worth now in 3 years time, or there abouts.

Saul Goodman 91

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123690106#Comment_123690106

This is coming from the guy who thought NVDA was risky. It is now double what it was a few months ago.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691669#Comment_123691669

You seem to lack basic understanding of investing. The riskier a share is, the higher the reward you can expect ;-)

Saul Goodman 91

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691709#Comment_123691709

Not really. Certainly was a far better bet than Xpeng, which is still below $20.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691530#Comment_123691530

(do you think anyone read all that? Esp when the first two words are “you’re wrong”. It’s the internet - we all have opinions on this stuff, get over yourself! 🙄)

God almighty lads, I was simply replying to the comment that Teslas were holding their value better than others, when we discuss this to death almost daily over on the bargains thread - there are two types of Tesla sellers- well priced cars that sell, and everything else that doesn’t.

Nothing more than that; no I’m not angry; yes I think a new base model M3H is the best value vehicle for sale in Ireland. I say it here all the time.

JOL1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691726#Comment_123691726

Hindsight makes everyone wise ….the point @unkel was raising was it was a risky stock, and with all risky stock the rewards can be high but the possibility of losses also high (huge volatility). The point you raise about the performance of this stock is testament to that.

Saul Goodman 91

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691831#Comment_123691831

It was a safe enough buy at 98 dollars. I am regretting I didn't make the leap now.

As you say, hindsight and all that.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691831#Comment_123691831

pretty much bang on.

TSLA entered this decade Jan 4th 2020 at $293. it’s $302 today, 5.5yrs later.

Thats the entire M3 & MY era, plus all the side projects, onwards.

If you think you were somehow able to actively trade the intervening volatility based on any form of fundamentals, you’re in the wrong game. Tesla trades solely on momentum, both up and down.

It traded up 20x in the 18months from mid 2019 to Jan 2020.

It the bigger picture of Tesla stock, if you didn’t buy (and hold) in that window, you haven’t even beaten the S&P500 performance holding this stock in the last 5+ years, which is +87% on the 5year chart.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691851#Comment_123691851

Everyone regrets buying stock tbat has risen at a lower price previously 😂

Saul Goodman 91

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691857#Comment_123691857

Except I never bought it since then.

...Ghost...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691810#Comment_123691810

The first two words were the headline and is really all most need to read. Your comment was wrong and rather than just saying so, I detailed why I thought so. That was the opener.

I prefer to substantiate my comments with personal experience and where possible, back it up with known facts. people read pages and pages of comments. If someone has difficulty reading an organised, thoughtfully composed comment with a few hundred words, that's not my problem. I'm at no loss whether they can concentrate for more than a few seconds.

If you have read the comment, you can then agree, or disagree in part, or in whole…preferably with a reason as to why you might disagree. If you haven't read the comment, then you really have no place responding to it at all. I suspect you did read it though and can see sense in what I wrote. I'm glad you agree that the M3H is great value. That was an off-shoot of my comment, which was more about the true depreciation and cost to change to a new model.

...Ghost...

You’re missing something there. Stock splits. So, the stock has risen quite a bit since then. No?

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691726#Comment_123691726

That is the second time today you are sharing private information publicly without my consent. Way to go!

If you keep doing that, you better get the facts right. I felt there was strong potential and bought XPEV late last year at $12.99 and sold a few weeks later (typically my impatient style of quick profit taking) for $14.06. Now it is $18.05. Those are my only 2 transactions ever in that share

prosaic

I have no reason to doubt optimum will be as good as or better than other general purpose humanoid robots.

Robotaxi looks very promising and they may have enough ironed out for wide deployment late this year.

The energy storage business is looking very solid in a growing field.

There's a lot of reason to see the company grow considerably larger.

I don't know that I'd buy at $300. Cathy Woods seems to think it's got value at this level.

Saul Goodman 91

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123692042#Comment_123692042

I never shared anything? I didn't disclose any of your private business except your opinion on a stock.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691709#Comment_123691709

That’s not investing… that’s gambling. The issue with investing in Tesla is the business fundamentals don’t add up. They have no pipeline of new cars, the current ones are highly competent, good value, but aging. Their other markets don’t actually exist and they don’t have a product developed to fit into it. The value of the company is so high it’s a meme stock.

At least nvidia make a product and hold ip that cannot easily be replicated, and if then i suspect the inevitable enshitification of ai will harm them.

JOL1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691855#Comment_123691855

Periods selected for price movements can always reveal many things, even more so for a volatile stock. However, the figures you quote in support of your point don't factor in the stock splits (5 for 1 Aug 31st 2020 followed by 3 for 1 - 25th August '22) . Todays price USD302 is accurate but the stock price for 1st January 2020 adjusted for stock splits was USD 28.68…the point being for the period you selected there was huge growth, well above the S&P performance.

What is clear and agreed is that you can't correlate Tesla share price with fundamentals (made more difficult because it is not a pure play, Automobile Manufacturer, AI Company or whatever else making comparables more challenging). However, the Teslas shareholder base (Institutional and Retail) continue to believe that there is embedded value in the company given the huge PE assocaited with the share.

Saul Goodman 91

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123692334#Comment_123692334

Exactly. I listened to certain people telling me how Tesla stock is the greatest thing since sliced bread and to get out of Nvidia.

I now realise more than ever that people aren't always right, no matter how authoritatively they speak.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123692579#Comment_123692579

For the record, I have never said that. I have never even thought it. If I did, I would have just bought and held.

And anyone who tells you with authority that a stock is guaranteed to go in a certain direction, is a fool. And more fool you to listen to them.

Please do not post anything again I have spoken to you about privately. It is illegal and it is poor manners.

MojoMaker

Several folks on here have made a heap of profit from Tesla stock movements over the last few years. I wouldn't worry about second guessing what strategies they employed or what tools were at their disposal.

Plenty of value left in this stock for several more years.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123692334#Comment_123692334

All investments are a gamble. And personally I prefer low risk stocks. Unless you reckon that there is a significant chance that Tesla will go bankrupt and will not be bailed out, you will agree TSLA is a low risk stock.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123692636#Comment_123692636

I think Tesla is a very high risk stock as I don’t think it will ever meet the expectations of the market and the share price will fall, dramatically. I don’t know when this will happen obviously

prosaic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123692699#Comment_123692699

You're equating share price with risk. Risk is associated with actual financial failure of a venture. Tesla is cash rich and very forward focused, deploying capital to new ventures.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123693054#Comment_123693054

of course I’m equating share price with risk. The company doesn’t need to go broke for one to loose a lot of one’s investment.

I think Tesla is burning cash tilting at windmills. Even if they can actually develop them, which they possibly can’t, there is no proven market for a “robotaxi” or an android thing. There is a market for motor cars, but they seem to be planning on pulling out of that one!

Buddy Bubs

I held TSLA stock for a while last year before Musk got involved with Trump and was actually interested in the company and got the feeling the value was heavily dependent on Musk and his product reveals.

There was one where he was hinting at big news and the stock started climbing which was great, his big announcement turned out to be underwhelming, they dropped, investors obviously got pissed so he did another announcement in a different way and they climbed again.

They are not the only ones working on the projects that keep the stock price artificially high and could be beaten to any or all of them.

Fundamentals of the valuation are not sound, a lot of speculators love TSLA and thats fine, but not for me.

Probably decent money to be made by trading in and out of them if you can get timing right but thats not easy either

...Ghost...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123693105#Comment_123693105

No market for a robotaxi? If there is demand for taxis, there is demand for robotaxi.

I wouldn't mind having an android bring me a whiskey and red while I chill in th evening. Clean the kitchen, wash the car etc. Would give the missus a break 😅

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123693105#Comment_123693105

Robotaxi is the very definition of a proven market, and that's why there is so much hope value in the shares. Personally I leave the share investing to zurich as an individual investor no matter what the stock is you trade on incomplete information.

MojoMaker

I think you have no idea what you're talking about @maidhc yet using your known anti-Tesla bias to throw out comments left, right, and centre.

Did the Model 3 touch you in the bad place? Was Daddy Musk mean to you? Could you not afford a non-white Model Y?

Tesla stock has been very good to a few posters here. On the other hand, haven't heard anyone comment that they lost their shirt on the stock 🤷‍♂️

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123693224#Comment_123693224

How is there a proven market for a thing not yet invented? if let’s say we do see “robotaxis” on the streets of Dublin and Cork, what wealth is being generated? It can’t be more than supplanting the wages of the taxi driver’s, who are not paid that well to begin with.

One can argue about the reformulation of car ownership happening, but the likes of “go car “ has not been a success really. the reality is the most of us will want our private cars, and we will chose to drive because we will be in the car anyway and are not alcoholics.

Finally, even they do pull off the robotaxi thing, there it nothing stopping a competitor coming out of China + 2 years later, or less.

The suits in Zurich or the city of London get it spectacularly wrong also.

I have no real gripe with Tesla cars and Elon utterly changed the EV landscape, but what we are seeing now is a Ponzi scheme.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123693241#Comment_123693241

I know lots of what I am talking about, I have dabbled in shares for 20 years, and run more than one business of my own with reasonable success. I know Tesla shares were good to people, and good for them, but that’s not a guarantee of anything into the future, maybe you are too young to remember the banking crisis in 2008…