FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1590
The GFS model has rowed back on rainfall predictions up to and including the final day of the month. The latest run suggests that the north and southeast will remain completely dry for the next 16 days, with well below average totals for elsewhere.
It is quite the contrast to the 00Z run
www.weatheire.com
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Quite amazing, this blocking pattern is beautiful to watch how it evolves.
T+120 and its as you were, normally i'd be skeptical but we are now into about the third glorious week in a row.
May is oftentimes a sunny month by Irish standards, if this continues i suspect some station totals will challenge or beat long time records. Great stuff as a weather watcher.
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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Ireland looks almost exclusively dry until about Thursday which is another 6 days of dry weather. Day 7 is when things are supposed to turn more unsettled but as that is a week away it can also be unreliable so how unsettled it becomes still has to be determined.
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You can see from the NAO charts just how extraordinarily positive it's been to deliver us such a prolonged block. It's certainly due for a plunge over the next fortnight, but as you can see, just how prolonged a plunge is very much up in the air; while there's more GFS support for it to remain negatuve into June, there are some ensemble members showing a rebound,
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Next weekend and through to the following bank holiday weekend is shaping up to be wet enough for the western half of the country. A few separate low pressure systems are showing now on the 12z ECM and GFS runs but high pressure is never too far away either so hopefully the outlook improves as we get closer. Long way from the bank holiday weekend yet too. Projected total rainfall between today and Sunday 1st of June below for GFS and ECM.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1590
Long range prospects
The long dry spell will gradually come to an end later next week, with a return of occasional rainfall, westerly winds, and cooler temperatures.
Sunday will bring widespread sunshine and temperatures in the high teens to mid-20s.
Monday will start dry and sunny everywhere, but scattered heavy showers, with localised thunderstorms, will spread across the southern half of Leinster in the afternoon before moving into North Munster by evening.
Heavy showers, along with some thundery activity, will become more widespread during Tuesday, with a risk of localised spot flooding. Parts of the west and northwest will likely remain dry throughout the day. Good sunny spells will form between showers.
Wednesday will bring a return to sunny, warm, and dry conditions as temperatures peak in the high teens to low 20s. Winds will slowly shift westerly during the day, leading to slightly cooler temperatures on the west coast than of late.
A gradual change will occur during Thursday as cloud spills into Atlantic coastal counties later in the afternoon.
Scattered outbreaks of light rain, associated with an Atlantic frontal system, will extend across Ireland during Friday, followed by scattered heavy showers on Saturday.
The remainder of May and the start of June will see occasional frontal systems or showery activity with moderate to fresh westerly winds at times, interspersed with dry periods — the best of which will be in the east and southeast.
Temperatures will also drop back to more seasonal values in the mid-teens.
Rainfall totals during the following week will be close to or slightly above average for the time of year along the Atlantic seaboard and inland west but will remain slightly below average in eastern and southeastern coastal counties.
Long-range weather models indicate that pressure will slowly rise during the first part of June, and temperatures may begin to recover.
With high pressure never too far away, there are signs that our weather could become more settled and warmer again by the end of the first week of June, in keeping with the tradition of sunshine breaking out for English Paper 1 of the Leaving Certificate examinations.
Weather Models
The latest output from the European (ECMWF) weather model for the next 16 days up to 2 June supports increasing rainfall totals. The ensembles model, which runs 50 forecast variations (perturbations) to account for uncertainties in input data, also indicates a gradual decrease in temperatures in the coming week.
Model data, which is taken from a sample location in the Midlands, highlights a drop in air pressure through the coming week followed by a slow rise in air pressure, suggesting high pressure may slowly build close to Ireland.
The red lines in the graphic suggest the average of all 50 forecast variations.www.weatheire.com
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ECM is ramping up rainfall potential now run after run between next weekend and into the bank holiday weekend. The Dungarvan area in particular looking very wet indeed with well over 2x Ireland's average monthly rainfall for May according to this run. Looking at the run we get stuck in a washing machine of low pressure systems during this period and no shortage of rain with them. GFS not nearly as bad so we'll have to see how it plays out.
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A very strong trend on the GFS that the Atlantic will be back in business within a few days leading to a possibly cool and unsettled final week of May and opening week of June.
Wednesday will be grass cutting day for most people.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1590
There are growing signs that the forecast 'end' of the long spell of largely settled weather may just be a 'break'. A summer snooze button if you will. Support is increasing amongst the main weather models that high pressure will rebuild later next week and into next weekend, with less unsettled conditions developing. June could very well resemble what other countries call summer.
www.weatheire.com
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Been keeping an eye on the long range output and the overall impression is for High Pressure to return after the Bank Holiday Weekend - so an improving picture as we move through the week of June 2nd to 6th. The weekend of June 7th and 8th looks to be quite good on recent GFS outputs. An example:
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latest GFS doesn't look great, keeps it on the unsettled side up to 10th June, I'm in no way confident of a dry spell happening soon lasting much longer than a day or two.
Low pressure sticking around for the bank holiday weekend:
This continues into first week of June.
High pressure pushed back to 10th/11th June (yesterday it was the 6th)
A dry interlude maybe around 2nd/3th of June but overall the ensemble graph remains with a trend towards the unsettled side of things but not overly deluge wet.
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GFS 6z similar to the 00z except the high pressure struggles to even get to us at the end of the run with northern areas in particular staying under a flat zonal westerly influence to the end of the run so absolutely no guarantees we are having a settled spell any time soon.
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