FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Having a look at the models in the medium range and FI, GFS seems to be a bit out on its own with an Atlantic barrage. Having said that, I believe GFS has performed well over the winter. An ssw in early spring has been a precursor for cool and wet spring. Are we going to scrape by and count our lucky stars or fall to the inevitable Atlantic?
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Largely settled weather will persist across Ireland with drier and warmer than average conditions for the remainder of March and opening days of April.
High pressure will be situated close to or over Ireland and while some frontal systems will bring some rain or showers at times later this week and next weekend, the next two weeks are looking generally dry.
The low pressure system that brought heavy rain to many parts of the island on Friday and Saturday has moved on and been replaced by dry and bright conditions.
More rain fell during the past 48 hours than what has been recorded in the previous three weeks.
25.7mm has been recorded at Cork Airport, which represents almost double the rainfall recorded at the station since the start of the month.
It will be largely overcast today in the eastern half of Ireland, but there will be sunny spells further west.
Top temperatures will range from 9 to 12°C in moderate northerly winds.
It will be cold overnight into Monday morning with temperatures dropping below freezing under clear skies and slack north winds.
Monday will be dry with all areas enjoying sunny spells. Cloud may build in the northwest by evening with a chance of light drizzle for a time tomorrow night.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar days with top temperatures of 10 to 14°C as gentle northwest winds swing to a southwest direction.
More persistent rain will move into Atlantic coastal counties on Wednesday evening and will push eastward overnight into Thursday morning.
Thursday will be largely overcast but dry.
Frontal systems bringing heavy showers or longer spells of rain will cross Ireland from the northwest on Thursday and Friday nights, but it will remain largely dry during daylight hours.
Drier conditions will become more prevalent by the end of next week as high pressure becomes anchored close to or over Ireland.
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Dry April to follow “March Of Few Weathers”
Following what has been a drier-than-average March, high pressure will dominate Ireland’s weather for the next 10 to 14 days.
Ireland is well accustomed to a "March of Many Weathers", but this March has proven to be free of dramatic twists and turns in conditions.
The below average rainfall totals across Ireland this March are in stark contrast to recent years.
March 2023 was the wettest on record, while March 2024 was also in the top ten wettest months since records began.
Scattered heavy showers across the northern half of Ireland on Saturday will be followed by an extended period of dry weather as the Jet Stream takes a trip north of Ireland.
There will be some passing light showers at times in the west and northwest early in the week, but all areas will enjoy long spells of sunshine at times.
It will become mild or even warm as the week progresses, with temperatures rising into the late teens later in the week and, perhaps, reaching 20°C in the west and The Midlands.
Temperatures could drop down to low single digits at night, but extensive overnight frosts are unlikely.
Rainfall totals this coming week will be well below average, with many areas remaining completely dry up to and including next weekend.
Winds will initially be light westerly before swinging to a milder southeasterly direction later Monday and into Tuesday.
The southeast winds will help drying conditions across Ireland, particularly on poorly drained soils.
There are weak signals that winds could swing to a northeast or northerly direction during the second week of April.Present indications suggest that our weather will remain largely dry but Atlantic systems could skirt western and southern coasts at times.
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The next fortnight will be mostly dry and settled as High Pressure becomes the dominant feature of Ireland’s weather. Temperatures will be well above the seasonal average for April and rainfall amounts will be significantly below normal for the time of year.
The last appreciable rainfall across Ireland over the next 10 to 14 days will clear on Saturday evening.
Dry conditions can be expected in all places from Sunday with some sunny breaks forming. While Monday will be generally overcast with just a few short sunny breaks, more widespread sunshine will occur from Tuesday through next week and into the following week.
Daytime temperatures will rise to between 13 and 17°C next week, coolest in east and southeast-facing coastal areas due to prevailing southeast breeze turning easterly after mid-week. Temperatures may climb even higher in the Midlands, West Munster or Connacht later in the week.
Apart from some well scattered light showers, the week will be dry although there is a risk of scattered showers, some of which may be thundery in nature, pushing up from the south.
High Pressure is likely to be situated near Ireland during the following week resulting in a continuation of the settled weather conditions. Depending on the positioning of the high, there is a risk of frontal systems encroaching at times. There is also a weak signal that winds may turn to a northeast or north direction leading to a dip in temperatures as a colder airmass is drawn in over Ireland.
For farmers and landowners, drying conditions will significantly improve from Sunday. Soil conditions, which are currently poorest in the northwest, will also improve due to the extended period of dry weather.
For gardeners, widespread overnight frosts are unlikely, but temperatures could drop to low single digits in sheltered inland locations in the middle of next week. The risk of frost increases slightly for the following week.
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A lengthy spell of dry and settled weather stretching into mid-April is expected, driven by persistent high pressure to the northeast of Ireland.
With ‘Summer Time’ now underway, evenings are extended by an hour, days are growing warmer, and rising soil temperatures are boosting grass growth.
This March has stood out as remarkably dry, especially when compared to the exceptionally wet months of March of 2023 and 2024, some of the wettest on record.
April looks set to follow suit, with the east and north staying entirely dry for at least the next 10 to 12 days.
Into the second week of April, frontal systems might bring occasional rain or showers to western and southern counties, though specifics won’t be clear until nearer the time.
Away from the southern and eastern coasts, daytime highs will climb to 14–16°C.
A southeast breeze, shifting to a gentle-to-moderate easterly flow by midweek, will keep temperatures cooler along those coastal areas, ranging from 11 to 14°C.
Overall, expect temperatures to run 2–3°C above the seasonal norm.
While sheltered inland spots could see overnight frost this week, most areas will stay comfortably above freezing.
Sunshine will be abundant everywhere.
As mid-April nears, there’s a faint hint of winds swinging to a chillier northeast or northerly direction, but dry conditions should largely persist.
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The warm and sunny conditions will be replaced later in the weekend by more typical April weather, with cooler temperatures and increased rainfall.
Temperatures will progressively drop from highs of 16 to 20°C on Friday to 10 to 13°C by Sunday.
It will remain dry everywhere until Saturday evening, at which point some light rain or showers will push into Atlantic coastal counties.
Sunday will be largely dry, apart from some well-scattered showers feeding in from the Atlantic.
Showers will be heavier and more frequent during Monday and may merge to give longer spells of rain in the west and northwest.
Later on Tuesday and through the remainder of the working week, successive low-pressure systems will push up from the south and southwest to bring outbreaks of rain, which will be heavy at times.
Overall rainfall totals will be above average next week, with temperatures of 10 to 12°C matching the seasonal average.
Unsettled conditions will continue through Good Friday. There is a signal for less unsettled conditions to develop during the Easter Bank Holiday weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds nearby. It will likely remain cool, however.
High pressure is favoured to return and dominate weather conditions during the final week of April, resulting in lower-than-average precipitation amounts and slightly higher-than-average temperatures.
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Contrasting model output this evening from the GFS and ECM models for the Easter Bank Holiday weekend. The GFS goes for a warn, dry and settled picture, but the ECM (Euro model) presents a wet and window scenario. The ECM run appears to be very much an outlier.
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