Boards Weather Forecast Contest - November 2024

pauldry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122902450#Comment_122902450

It's been a strange year of weather appledrop. Very bland for long periods then short extreme events.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122903586#Comment_122903586

I know sure earlier on in week was freezing we had an 'ice day' and here I am in park today and it's 15 degrees!

M.T. Cranium

IMT ended on 8.2 as 30 Nov was very mild.

PRC appears to be 88%.

I will wait for data on 3rd Dec to attempt scoring …

M.T. Cranium

… to be verified 1100-1200 3 Dec …

Scoring for Nov 2024

FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__low max__TOTALS

waterways ____________ 24 _ 17 _ 17 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 83

sryanbruen ____________23 _ 09 _ 20 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 74

Sunflower3 ____________23 _ 07 _ 12 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 03 _____ 66

Mr Stonewall __________ 24 _ 07 _ 10 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 04 _____ 66

WolfeEire _____________ 18 _ 08 _ 14 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 07 _____ 65

john mac _____________ 25 _ 03 _ 18 _ 11 _ 05 ___ 03 _____ 65

Adam240610 ___(-2) ___ 18 _ 09 _ 12 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 07 _62-2=60

MrSkinner ____________ 24 _ 01 _ 05 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 08 _____ 59

Joe Public _____________24 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 10 _____ 59

Appledrop _____________23 _ 10 _ 05 _ 08 _ 04 ___ 08 _____ 58

Gonzo ________________16 _ 14 _ 04 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 08 _____ 56

___Con Sensus _________ 21 _ 07 _ 05 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 06 _____ 55

___NormaL ____________ 15 _ 03 _ 12 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 08 _____ 55

Dasa29 _______________22 _ 00 _ 07 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 01 _____ 51

Tae laidir ______________15 _ 12 _ 12 _ 01 _ 08 ___ 02 _____ 50

Kindred Spirit __________25 _ 00 _ 08 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 02 _____ 49

Dacogawa _____(-2)____ 21 _ 12 _ 05 _ 04 _ 04 ___ 05 _51-2=49

DOCARCH _____________17 _ 04 _ 04 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 09 _____ 48

Cornerstonelad _________19 _ 03 _ 02 _ 13 _ 04 ___ 07 _____ 48

Esposito ______________ 17 _ 20 _ 00 _ 02 _ 07 ___ 02 _____ 48

Artane2002 ___________ 20 _ 11 _ 00 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 04 _____ 47

Rameire _______(-2) ___ 18 _ 10 _ 00 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 03 _48-2=46

Jpmarn _______________16 _ 06 _ 00 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 06 _____ 45

Bsal _________________ 18 _ 00 _ 02 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 07 _____ 42

M.T. Cranium __________ 19 _ 04 _ 04 _ 00 _ 05 ___ 03 _____ 35

Pauldry________________06 _ 06 _ 00 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 02 _____ 33

================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ low max

Pauldry_______________10.1 _ 17.8 _-1.8 _ 075 _ 090 ___ 7.1

Tae laidir ______________9.2 _ 18.4 _-4.0 _ 047 _ 088 ___ 6.8

Gonzo ________________9.1 _ 18.6 _-3.2 _ 063 _ 094 ___ 4.6

Jpmarn _______________9.1 _ 17.8 _-2.7 _ 070 _ 090 ___ 5.2

Esposito ______________ 9.0 _ 19.2 _-2.1 _ 050 _ 095 ___ 7.1

Rameire _______(-2) ___ 8.9 _ 18.2 _-2.6 _ 070 _ 090 ___ 6.1

Adam240610 ___(-2) ___ 8.9 _ 18.1 _-4.0 _ 070 _ 095 ___ 4.9

WolfeEire _____________ 8.9 _ 18.0 _-4.2 _ 080 _ 100 ___ 5.0

M.T. Cranium __________ 8.8 _ 17.6 _-3.2 _ 042 _ 105 ___ 6.2

Cornerstonelad _________8.8 _ 17.5 _-3.0 _ 082 _ 110 ___ 5.0

Artane2002 ___________ 8.7 _ 18.3 _-1.5 _ 055 _ 090 ___ 5.7

Dacogawa _____(-2)____ 8.6 _ 18.4 _-3.3 _ 055 _ 110 ___ 5.5

___Con Sensus ________ 8.6 _ 17.9 _-3.3 _ 070 _ 095 ___ 5.1

Dasa29 _______________8.5 _ 17.0 _-3.5 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 8.5

Appledrop _____________8.4 _ 18.2 _-3.3 _ 066 _ 110 ___ 4.8

sryanbruen ____________8.4 _ 18.1 _-4.8 _ 060 _ 095 ___ 3.9

Sunflower3 ____________8.4 _ 17.9 _-4.0 _ 075 _ 080 ___ 6.0

waterways ____________ 8.3 _ 18.9 _-5.1 _ 070 _ 098 ___ 2.5

john mac _____________ 8.2 _ 17.5 _-4.6 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 6.0

Kindred Spirit __________8.2 _ 16.8 _-3.6 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 6.8

Mr Stonewall __________ 8.1 _ 17.9 _-3.8 _ 088 _ 100 ___ 5.8

MrSkinner ____________ 8.1 _ 17.3 _-3.3 _ 088 _ 099 ___ 4.7

Joe Public _____________8.1 _ 16.9 _-3.9 _ 069 _ 105 ___ 2.3

Bsal _________________ 7.5 _ 16.0 _-3.0 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 5.0

DOCARCH _____________7.4 _ 17.6 _-3.2 _ 069 _ 105 ___ 4.2

___NormaL ___________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _-4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 4.5

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update Jan to Nov 2024

Table is now ordered by best 9/11 of scores (two lowest scores are not incl) … Ranks appear in same locations as before, so table-generating column is now at right end of scoring data, ranks for total score remain in first (left) column.

Ranks _ FORECASTER 

now(prev) __ __ __ __ __ __ J _F _M _A _M _ J _ J _A _S _O _N _ ___(2024)_(9/11)(rank)(prev)

01_(01)__MrSkinner _____64_76_78_66_60_66_68_81_59_75_59 __752__ 634 (1)_(1)

02_(05t)__sryanbruen____89_38_44_70_59_47_86_86_64_51_74 __708__ 626 (2)_(3)

05_(07)__WolfeEire ______68_39_37_75_62_58_75_75_71_60_65 __685__ 609 (3)_(5)

03_(02) _Kindred Spirit ___65_53_66_85_66_50_64_82_50_75_49 __705__ 606 (4)_(2)

1.9_(2.0)__ Con Sensus ___72_48_60_90_59_63_63_75_64_60_55 __709__ 606 (4.0)(4.5)

04_(04)__Artane2002 ____ 77_48_75_68_79_45_66_74_44_64_47 __687__ 598 (5)_(3)

06_(03)__ Pauldry _______ 75_52_64_81_52_62_61_65_74_61_33 __680__ 595 (6)_(6)

17_(16) __Gonzo ________ 76_71_67_58_64_40_69_79_ —_52_56 __632__ 592 (7)_(8)

09_(08t)__Dasa29________41_50_78_71_31_49_62_78_76_73_51 __660__ 588 (8)_(7)

08 _(05t)__M.T. Cranium __ 55_74_67_49_63_70_68_55_80_53_35 __669__ 585 (9t)_(9)

07_(08t)__Mr stonewall____66_57_40_64_50_75_58_70_77_52_66 __675__ 585 (9t)_(10)

9.4_(9.9) ____NormaL ____74_52_46_54_34_66_63_72_83_57_55 __656__ 576 (10.4)(9.8)

16_(13) _DOCARCH ______49_51_44_80_29_66_65_65_86_54_48 __637__ 564 (11)_(12)

14t_(12)__Jpmarn _______78_40_61_66_35_64_58_71_58_62_45 __638__ 563 (12t)_(11)

13 _(11) _Cornerstonelad __59_29_49_83_53_48_76_80_55_60_48 __640__ 563 (12t) _(13)

10_ (15)_Sunflower3 _____ 52_44_48_75_55_47_66_83_63_52_66 __651__ 560 (14)_(16)

11_ (10)_ Dacogawa ______69_64_73_74_61_47_47_59_49_57_49 __649__ 555 (15)_(14)

14t_(14)_Tae laidir _______ 65_51_73_67_68_52_53_65_36_58_50 __638__ 552 (16)_(15)

22_(21t)__Adam240610____75_58_46_ —_63_50_55_60_69_59_60 __595__ 549 (17)_(18)

18_ (18)_ Appledrop ______ 72_56_66_75_53_51_56_59_38_47_58 __631__ 546 (18t)_(19)

12 _(17)_john mac ________67_51_59_51_45_57_62_65_65_55_65 __642__ 546 (18t)_(21)

20_ (19)__Rameire ________50_43_58_83_44_60_67_72_35_58_46 __616__ 539 (20)_(17)

19_(21t)__waterways ______64_55_47_48_42_63_48_53_61_56_83 __620__ 531 (21)_(22)

21 _(20)_ Bsal____________59_38_70_77_42_46_60_57_61_55_42 __607__ 527 (22)_(20)

23 _(23)_Joe Public _______ 56_34_51_58_54_37_46_49_62_ --_59 __506__ 472 (23)_(23)

------------------------------ will not qualify for best 10/12 later in 2024 -------------- - - -

24 (25)__Esposito _______ 71_34 _39_—_ —_ 63_ --_66_ —_—_48 __321 (6/11)

25_(24)__200motels _____ 66_---_58_69_— _34_---_75_—_—_-- ___ 302 (5/11)

26 (26)__Tazio __________ 57_62_44_46_—_—_--- _—_— _— _ --___ 207 (4/11)

27 (28) __ Okla … … …  … … … … … … … … … … … … … .. _ 60 _73_-- ___ 133 (2/11)

28 (27) __ The Helpful Engineer … … … … … … … … … 86 _—_ —_ —- ___ 086 (1/11)

29_(29)__SleetandSnow ___56 _---_---_—_—_--_ —_ —__—_— _-- __ 056 (1/11)

30_(30)__Bazlers ________ 33 _ ---_---_—_—_--_ —_ —__—_— _-- __ 033 (1/11)

31_(31)__BLIZZARD7 _____26 _ ---_---_—_—_--_ —_ —__—_— _-- __ 026 (1/11)

(b) Category scoring Jan to Nov

max possible scores..275 _220 _220 _165 _110 _110__1100

MrSkinner________214 _116 _144 _121 _82 _ 75 ___ 752

__ Con Sensus ____203 _119 _118_108 _ 88 _ 73 ___ 709

sryanbruen ______ 193 _131 _134_ 98 _ 88 _ 64 ___ 708

Kindred Spirit ____ 211 _103 _124_112 _ 80 _ 75 ___ 705

WolfeEire ________194 _127 _114 _102 _ 81 _ 71 ___ 689-4 = 685

Artane2002______ 199 _133 _121_ 78 _ 88 _ 68 ___ 687

Pauldry _________ 212 _118 _ 98 _ 91 _ 85 _ 76 ___ 680

Mr stonewall______194 _112 _122 _ 92 _ 76 _ 79 ___ 675

M.T. Cranium_____ 209 _100 _117 _ 91 _ 82 _ 70 ___ 669

Dasa29 _________ 188 _ 87 _122 _109 _ 80 _ 75 ___ 661-1=660

 ____NormaL _____183 _106 _118 _ 96 _ 87 _ 66 ___ 656

Sunflower3 ______ 210 _ 80 _ 106 _ 93 _ 87 _ 75 ___ 651

Dacogawa _______ 201 _133 _100 _ 68 _ 81 _ 71 ___ 654-5=649

john mac________ 201 _ 71 _ 130 _ 92 _ 85 _ 63 ___ 642

Cornerstonelad ___ 181 _113 _113 _ 97 _ 55 _ 81 ___ 640

Jpmarn _________ 175_ 123 _ 98 _ 92 _ 79 _ 71 ___ 638

Tae laidir ________ 184 _123 _110 _ 81 _ 81 _ 59 ___ 638

DOCARCH _______ 188 _ 80 _113 _101 _ 82 _ 73 ___ 637

Gonzo __________ 189 _133 _104 _ 70 _ 68 _ 69 ___ 633-1=632 (10/11)

Appledrop _______ 208 _108 _ 86 _ 65 _ 90 _ 74 ___ 631

waterways _______188 _ 90 _ 87 _105 _ 75 _ 75 ___ 620

Rameire _________175 _ 97 _ 87 _103 _ 89 _ 68 ___ 619-3=616

Bsal ____________188 _ 46 _124 _ 87 _ 87 _ 75 ___ 607

Adam240610 _____177 _ 79 _110 _ 98 _ 75 _ 59 ___ 598-3=595 (10/11)

Joe Public________177 _ 70 _ 82 _ 63 _ 72 _ 42 ___ 506 (10/11)

Esposito _________111 _ 48 _ 42 _ 38 _ 46 _ 36 ___ 273 (6/11)

200motels ________92 _ 49 _ 57 _ 43 _ 40 _ 21 ___ 302 (5/11)

Tazio ____________69 _ 36 _ 29 _ 31 _ 24 _ 20 ___ 209-2=207 (4/11)

Okla _____________42 _ 28 _ 15 _ 25 _ 16 _ 11 ___137-4=133 (2/11)

The Helpful Engineer_25 _17 _ 17_ 13 _ 07 _ 07 ____ 86 (1/11)

SleetandSnow _____21 _ 08 _ 02 _ 13 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 56 (1/11)

Bazlers __________ 09 _ 00 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 _ 04 ___ 33 (1/11)

BLIZZARD7 _______03 _ 00 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 28-2 =026 (1/11)

___________________________________

Note: Late penalties are applied to total category scoring and are incorporated into monthly scores.

In category scoring, high score is bold, second is bold italic, and third is plain italic font.

IMT ___one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

MAX __three forecasters tied first, italics show fourth.

MIN __one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

PRC __one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

SUN __one forecaster in first, one in second, and two tied third. (Con Sensus also tied third).

Bonus _one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

======================================

Note: total of best category scores is 783/1100 (MrSkinner owns 3/6)

M.T. Cranium

Four Seasons Contest 2023-2024 Final report

Slightly different format this year, seasonal winners will get 12 points, second to tenth will get 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 points, 11-20 will also get 2 points as will any forecaster with a total score of 150+ ... and all who participate (2/3 or 3/3) will get one point if not otherwise qualified. Con Sensus and NormaL will receive points but those will not affect contest points.

FORECASTER ______Winter _ Spring _ Summer_ Autumn (score, pts) _ TOTAL contest points

MrSkinner _____________10 ____ 7 ______10 ____ 193 __ 7 _________ 34

sryanbruen ____________ 6(t) ___2 ______ 12 ___ 189 __ 6 _________ 26

Artane2002 ____________ 8 ____12 ______ 2 ____ 155 __ 2 _________ 24

Kindred Spirit ___________7____ 10 ______ 5(t) __ 174 __ 2 _________ 24

Wolfeire _______________ 2 _____ 2 ______ 9 ___ 196 __ 9 _________ 22

___ Con Sensus ________ 4.5 ___9.1 ______6.5 ___ 179 __2 ________ 22.1

Tae laidir ______________ 9 _____9(t) _____ 2 ___ 144 __ 1 _________ 21

Gonzo ________________12 ____ 4(t) _____ 2 ___ 108^__1 _________19

___ NormaL ___________ __ 4.3 ____1.0 _____6.5 __ 195 __8 _________ 19.8

Mr stonewall ____________2 _____ 2 ______ 7 ___ 195 __ 8 _________ 19

Dacogawa ______________4 ____ 9(t) _____ 2 ___ 155 __ 2 _________ 17

Dasa29 ________________1 _____ 2 ______ 2 ___ 200 __12 (t) ______ 17

waterways _____________ 2 _____ 1 ______ 2 ___ 200 __12 (t) ______ 17

Cornerstonelad __________2 _____ 2 ______ 8 ___ 163 __ 2 _________ 14

DOCARCH _____________ 2 _____ 2 ______ 5(t) _ 188 __ 5 (t) _______ 14

john mac _______________6(t)___ 2 ______ 2 ___ 185 __ 3 _________ 13

Pauldry ________________ 2 _____6 ______ 2 ___ 168 __ 2 _________ 12

Sunflower3 _____________2 _____ 2 ______ 5(t) _ 181 __ 2 _________ 11

Rameire _______________ 2 _____ 2 ______ 6 ___ 139 __ 1 _________ 11

Adam240610 ___________ 3 _____ 1 ______ 2 ___ 188 __ 5 (t) _______11

Appledrop ______________2 _____5 _______ 2 ___ 143 __ 1 _________10

Bsal __________________ 2 _____4 (t) ____ 2 ___ 158 __ 2 __________10

M.T. Cranium ___________ 2 _____ 2 ______ 2 ___ 168 __ 2 __________ 8

Jpmarn ________________2 _____ 2 ______ 2 ___ 165 __ 2 __________ 8

Joe Public ______________1 _____ 2 ______ 1 ___ 121^__1 __________ 5

esposito _______________2 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____(048)1_0 __________ 3

200motels _____________1 _____ 1 ______ 1 __________ 0 __________ 3

Tazio _________________ 2 _____ 1 ______—- _________ 0 __________ 3

Okla __________________—- ____ —- _____—- ___ 133^_1 __________ 1

SleetAndSnow __________1 _____ 0 ______—- _________ 0 __________ 1

Bazlers ________________1 _____ 0 ______—- _________ 0 __________ 1

BLIZZARD7 ____________ 1 _____ 0 ______ —- _________0 __________ 1

^ 2/3 contests in season

M.T. Cranium

All scoring is now verified, SUN was 75% so everyone received one extra point as it was scored off 80%.

Congrats to waterways for leading NOV scoring; MrSkinner wins four seasons and is leading in both sections of annual contest, but sryanbruen is only eight points behind in best 10/12 now (Boards Award), despite being 44 adrift in total score. WolfeEire has moved into third in best 10/12, while Kindred Spirit is third in total score (and 4th in best 10/12 scoring).

waterways

Thank you M.T. Cranium. I usually take a backseat and it is a pleasant surprise and nice change to win the November contest. :)

Weather was mixed this year and sometimes beyond weather models. Congrats to all, who attended the contest. Wish you a calm and peaceful December.