Boards Weather Forecast Contest - November 2024

WolfeEire

Provisionally, Phoenix Park recorded 19c at 1pm today. We await Mét Éireann's official confirmation of same later.

pauldry

Also 19.1c on Ogemet for Finner.

Felt very warm in the NW today. Warmer than June anyways.

sryanbruen

19.1C confirmed for both Phoenix Park and Finner Camp on the Met Twitter.

DOCARCH

Met E, on 'Yesterday's Weather', have Phoenix Park at 19.2c. May be edited later?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122811317#Comment_122811317

And just 18.1C at Finner Camp.

It's one thing to make a mistake from time to time, we're only human after all. But this keeps happening far too often with the Met I swear.

pauldry

Ah well forgive them for the 0.1 mistake Sryan. Maybe they should do 2 decimal points like the UK.

M.T. Cranium

After first week …

IMT _ 11.9 C (3.5 above normal) __ 6 Nov avg was 15.4 !

MAX _ 19.2

MIN _ 1.8

PRC _ 9% of normal

Sun _ 21.3% of normal

low max _ to come

______________

Esposito 19.2, waterways 18.9, Gonzo 18.6 top forecasts

DOCARCH

Low of 0.2c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

Low max of 7.7c at Oak Park yesterday.

No Ballyhaise data for yesterday (yet) which is always a good candidate for low max.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122829672#Comment_122829672

Ballyhaise was 11.1 C after all. Will be posting a new low min from 12 Nov and possibly a new low max also.

(to avoid confusion, DOC posted on Nov 12, it shows as Nov 11 because of my time zone, so quoted values were for 11 Nov. Perhaps I need to set my boards time stamp to IST.)

pauldry

Only 5c or 6c max at some stations on Nov 12 MT.

DOCARCH

Low of -0.3c at Gurteen yesterday (12th).

Low max of 5.6c at Mount Dillon yesterday (12th).

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks …

IMT _ 10.3 C (2.2 above normal) _ second week average 8.8 C (0.8 above)

MAX _ 19.2

MIN _ -0.3

PRC _ 12% of normal _ second week average 16%

Sun _ 52.9% of normal _ second week average 84.3%

low max _ 5.6

______________

M.T. Cranium

In anticipation of cold spell, a table of low max forecasts in order:

Joe Public ___________2.3

waterways __________2.5

sryanbruen _________ 3.9

DOCARCH __________ 4.2

___NormaL __________4.5

Gonzo _____________ 4.6

MrSkinner __________ 4.7

Appledrop __________ 4.8

Adam240610 ________4.9

WolfeEire ___________5.0

Bsal _______________5.0

Cornerstonelad ______ 5.0

___Con Sensus _______5.1

Jpmarn ____________ 5.2

Dacogawa __________5.5

Artane2002 _________5.7

Mr Stonewall ________5.8

john mac ___________6.0

Sunflower3 _________ 6.0

Rameire ____________6.1

M.T. Cranium ________6.2

Tae laidir ___________6.8

Kindred Spirit _______ 6.8

Esposito ____________7.1

Pauldry_____________7.1

Dasa29 ____________ 8.5

(as of now, 5.6 C is low max, likely to go lower soon)

DOCARCH

Low max of 4.8c at Markree Castle yesterday (18th).

DOCARCH

Low of -3.0c at Athenry yesterday (19th).

Low max of 2.2c at Knock AP yesterday (19th).

M.T. Cranium

/Low max of 2.2 allows for scoring of bonus (as lowest forecast was 2.3) …

Joe Public ___________2.3 __ 10

waterways __________2.5 __ 10

sryanbruen _________ 3.9 ___ 9

DOCARCH __________ 4.2 ___ 9

___NormaL __________4.5 ___ 8

Gonzo _____________ 4.6 ___ 8

MrSkinner __________ 4.7 ___ 8

Appledrop __________ 4.8 ___ 8

Adam240610 ________4.9 ___ 7

WolfeEire ___________5.0 ___ 7

Bsal _______________5.0 ___ 7

Cornerstonelad ______ 5.0 ___ 7

___Con Sensus _______5.1 ___ 6

Jpmarn ____________ 5.2 ___ 6

Dacogawa __________5.5 ___ 5

Artane2002 _________5.7 ___ 4

Mr Stonewall ________5.8 ___ 4

john mac ___________6.0 ___ 3

Sunflower3 _________ 6.0 ___ 3

Rameire ____________6.1 ___ 3

M.T. Cranium ________6.2 ___ 3

Tae laidir ___________6.8 ___ 2

Kindred Spirit _______ 6.8 ___ 2

Esposito ____________7.1 ___ 2

Pauldry_____________7.1 ___ 2

Dasa29 ____________ 8.5 ___ 1

DOCARCH

Low of -3.7c at Athenry yesterday (20th).

Low max of 1.8c at Claremorris yesterday (20th).

DOCARCH

Low max of 1.1c at Knock AP yesterday (21st).

M.T. Cranium

after three weeks ,,,

IMT _ 8.8 C (1.0 above normal) _ second week average 5.7 C (1.5 below)

MAX _ 19.2

MIN _ -3.7

PRC _ 47% of normal _ third week average 118%

Sun _ 58.3% of normal _ third week average 69.2%

low max _ 1.1 (already scored above as lowest forecast 2.3)

______________

A grid average of 80 mm is needed to bring PRC to 100%.

Will report on PRC new percentages after expected rainfalls Sat, and into 25 Nov

Expect PRC to be 70-75 after Bert's visit.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday's rainfalls brought Nov PRC from 50% (1-22 Nov) to 95% (1-23 Nov) and that represents 72% of end of month values (if no more rain fell, some will, so PRC is going to end at least 80%.)

IMT after 22 days was 8.5 C and will be 8.6 after 23 days (large range yesterday so very high maxima will not give a big increase, rest of week will likely stay in a range of 8.6 to 9.0 and end near 8.7 C.)

M.T. Cranium

IMT 8.6 now and 80% guaranteed PRC (est 95% actual result) as we edge towards 100% of normal 1-25 Nov rainfall amounts.

Only three of us went above 100% for PRC (Kindred Spirit 115, Bsal 110, johnmac 102). Dasa29 at 95% looking good. GFS today predicts our end point will be close to 95%. The two "Misters" are at 88%.

Our lowest SUN forecast is 80% (sunflower3) and it seems unlikely we would get any higher even if a few days this week are relatively bright, as we are currently at about 60% for 25 days and even 100% for last five would yield a final value of 67%.

Not very likely to see a lower MIN now, -3.7 is close to our consensus, Kindred Spirit and MrStonewall were both 0.1 off on that, and most of us will pick up good points there.

IMT will likely finish about 8.2 to 8.4 C, our consensus was 8.6.

Next from me is likely to be week four report on 29 Nov. I will start the DEC contest thread around mid-day 28th to give lots of time for new entries (it's a good idea for anyone interested in joining for 2025 to enter DEC as it is part of the "four seasons" portion of that contest year).

pauldry

With maxs of 1c and 2c in places today is likely the cold max. Got to 3c in Sligo but back below zero again.

As far as Boards Contest is concerned despite things looking good for me for a high score up to halfway 2nd half of month has scuppered my hopes so time to have "fun" with my December prediction.

M.T. Cranium

We are probably going to see a new low min also, -4 hourly reports at both ends of a very cold day inland. Gurteen may have had an "ice day" as top hourly report is -1 C. (but low max bonus already scored anyway).

WolfeEire

Minus 4.4c at Gurteen

Tae laidir

What a strange month!

DOCARCH

Low of -4.8c at Markree yesterday (27th).

Low max of -1.1c at Gurteen yesterday (27th).

M.T. Cranium

Yesterday's cold dropped IMT to 7.94 C so it's likely to end near 8.0 or possibly 8.1 C.

pauldry

Oh dear. I'll finish on zero yet. And to think November IMT was nearly 11c up to halfway. So it's only averaged 5c in the past couple of weeks.

Roll on 2025 contest......for more wrong predictions.

appledrop

Don't worry Pauldry, you won't be as bad as me, I used to be good at the predictions but not in 2024! Down the bottom of the table I go😁

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks …

IMT _ 7.8 C (0.4 above normal) _ fourth week average 5.1 C (1.6 below) _ is probably 8.0 after today and will end 8.1-8.2

MAX _ 19.2 (set now)

MIN _ -4.8 (set now)

PRC _ 84% of normal _ fourth week average 196% _ will end near 90%

Sun _ 78.7% of normal _ fourth week average 139.7% _ will end near 80%

low max _ -1.1 (already scored above as lowest forecast 2.3)

—)))