October 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

DOCARCH

High of 18.6c at Belmullet yesterday.

pauldry

Dubs pushing that high today.

WolfeEire

Casement with monthly high of 18.9c

Tae laidir

18.9

M.T. Cranium

After first week …

IMT _ 13.1 (1.6 above normal)

MAX _ 18.9

MIN __ 3.6

PRC __ 97% of normal

SUN __ 97.5% of normal

Max wind gust (kt) _ 47

DOCARCH

Low of -0.7c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

May be short lived low for the month as a good few -1c's out there this morning.

pauldry

-1.2c Mullingar, Mt Dillon was -1c too

DOCARCH

Low of -1.6c at Moore Park yesterday.

pauldry

Tonight might go low. After that not too many cold nights. Mild enough for next week.

appledrop

A few showers out there today,but it's beautiful when sun comes out.

We collected some huge conkers in the park, love this time of year with the leaves underfoot.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks …

IMT _ 10.6 (0.5 below normal) _ second week cool, 8.1 (2.6 below normal)

MAX _ 18.9

MIN __ -1.6

PRC __ 70% of normal ( second week dry, 41% of normal )

SUN __ 118% of normal ( second week 138% of normal )

Max wind gust (kt) _ 47

pauldry

MAX of 19.1c in Athenry yesterday

Tae laidir

Belmullet gusted 54 knots yesterday.

Should be beaten tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for wind speeds (knots)

=

Pauldry _________________68

Mr stonewall _____________67

Dacogawa _______________66

Kindred Spirit ____________65

Jpmarn _________________64

Appledrop _______________62

Artane2002 ______________62

MrSkinner _______________61

Sunflower3 ______________61

WolfeEire _______________ 61

___ Consensus ___________ 60

Okla ____ (-4) ___________60

Tae laidir _______________ 60

M.T. Cranium ____________ 58

Gonzo __________________58

Cornerstonelad ___________57

Bsal ___________________ 56

sryanbruen______________ 55

___ NormaL ______________54

Adam240610 ____________ 54

waterways ______________ 54

DOCARCH _______________53

john mac ________________50

Dasa29 __ (-1) ___________50

Rameire _________________49

_______________________________

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122737309#Comment_122737309

Mace Head at 67

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122739862#Comment_122739862

70 knots at Mace Head

DOCARCH

Highest gust yesterday was 74 knots at Mace Head.

Decent/old school storm!

Tae laidir

Decent old school forecasting!

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks …

IMT _ 11.1 (0.3 above normal) _ third week 12.2 (2.2 above normal)

MAX _ 19.1

MIN __ -1.6

PRC __ 86% of normal ( third week 117% of normal )

SUN __ 116% of normal ( third week 113% of normal )

Max wind gust (kt) _ 74

That allows for settled scoring of the max wind forecast as follows:

FORECASTER __________ fcst ____ points

Pauldry _________________68 ___ 10

Mr stonewall _____________67 ___ 10

Dacogawa _______________66 ___ 10

Kindred Spirit ____________65 ___ 09

Jpmarn _________________64 ___ 09

Appledrop _______________62 ___ 08

Artane2002 ______________62 ___ 08

MrSkinner _______________61 ___ 07

Sunflower3 ______________61 ___ 07

WolfeEire _______________ 61 ___ 07

___ Consensus ___________ 60 ___ 06

Okla ____ (-4) ___________60 ___ 06

Tae laidir _______________ 60 ___ 06

M.T. Cranium ____________ 58 ___ 05

Gonzo __________________58 ___ 05

Cornerstonelad ___________57 ___ 04

Bsal ___________________ 56 ___ 04

sryanbruen______________ 55 ___ 03

___ NormaL ______________54 ___ 03

Adam240610 ____________ 54 ___ 03

waterways ______________ 54 ___ 03

DOCARCH _______________53 ___ 02

john mac ________________50 ___ 01

Dasa29 __ (-1) ___________50 ___ 01

Rameire _________________49 ___ 01

_______________________________

I was certainly blown away by the result of bonus question …

Tae laidir

I think you missed new Max 19.1.

M.T. Cranium

Correct, and can not edit now but will probably recall it next report.

DOCARCH

I will edit for you.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks …

IMT _ 11.2 (0.7 above normal) _ fourth week 11.0 (1.7 above normal)

MAX _ 19.1

MIN __ -1.6

PRC __ 88% of normal ( fourth week 95% of normal )

SUN __ 105% of normal ( fourth week 69.5% of normal )

Max wind gust (kt) _ 74

That allowed for settled scoring of the max wind forecast in third week report.

M.T. Cranium

IMT was 11.1 and PRC below 75% … all forecasters except Okla at 85 were at or above 100% …

SUN is probably a bit below 100% now also after being above average to 29 Oct.

Will be a slow scoring effort as data won't be available before 4 Nov so, will reconvene in a few days.

M.T. Cranium

Table of scoring for October 2024

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Max wind gust (kt)

________ _______ ______ 11.1_19.1_-1.6_078_100__ 74 kt ____ TOTALS

Kindred Spirit ___________ 25 _ 12 _ 07^_ 12^_ 10 ___ 09 _____ 75

MrSkinner ______________ 24 _ 11 _ 20^_ 03^_ 10 ___ 07 _____ 75

Dasa29 __ (-1) __________ 19 _ 19 _ 14^_ 12^_ 09 ___ 01 _74-1=73

Okla ____ (-4) __________ 19 _ 17 _ 12^_ 15^_ 08 ___ 06 _ 77-4=73

Artane2002 _____________ 10 _ 20 _ 08^_ 09^_ 09 ___ 08 _____ 64

Jpmarn ________________ 23 _ 00 _ 10^_ 12^_ 08 ___ 09 _____ 62

Pauldry ________________ 25 _ 12 _ 05^_ 01^_ 08 ___ 10 _____ 61

Cornerstonelad __________ 21 _ 00 _ 17^_ 12^_ 06 ___ 04 _____ 60

WolfeEire _______________13 _ 18 _ 04^_ 08^_ 10 ___ 07 _____ 60

___ Consensus __________ 19 _ 13 _ 07^_ 06^_ 09 ___ 06 _____ 60

Adam240610 ____________22 _ 15 _ 12^_ 01^_ 06 ___ 03 _____ 59

Rameire ________________16 _ 20 _ 09^_ 05^_ 07 ___ 01 _____ 58

Tae laidir _______________ 16 _ 19 _ 06^_ 03^_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 58

Dacogawa ______________ 17 _ 13 _ 07^_ 01^_ 09 ___ 10 _____ 57

___ NormaL _____________ 15 _ 06 _ 11^_ 12^_ 10 ___ 03 _____ 57

waterways ______________17 _ 19 _ 01^_ 08^_ 08 ___ 03 _____ 56

john mac _______________25 _ 00 _ 09^_ 10^_ 10 ___ 01 _____ 55

Bsal ___________________18 _ 16 _ 07^_ 02^ _ 08 ___ 04 _____ 55

DOCARCH ______________ 19 _ 12 _ 10^_ 03^_ 08 ___ 02 _____ 54

M.T. Cranium ____________20 _ 02 _ 15^_ 02^_ 09 ___ 05 _____ 53

Mr stonewall ____________ 20 _ 00 _ 06^_ 08^_ 08 ___ 10 _____ 52

Sunflower3 _____________ 20 _ 07 _ 05^_ 06^_ 07 ___ 07 _____ 52

Gonzo __________________08 _ 20 _ 06^_ 06^_ 07 ___ 05 _____ 52

sryanbruen ______________11 _ 19 _ 03^_ 06^_ 09 ___ 03 _____ 51

Appledrop _______________16 _ 06 _ 03^_ 05^_ 09 ___ 08 _____ 47

_______________________________

^ scores increased by min progression, limited boosts (hammer applied)

Congrats to top scorers Kindred Spirit, MrSkinner, Dasa29 and Okla.

=======================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max wind gust (kt)

Cornerstonelad ___________ 11.5 _ 22.0 _ -2.2 _ 100 _ 082 ___ 57

john mac ________________11.1 _ 21.2 _ -3.4 _ 102 _ 098 ___ 50

Kindred Spirit ____________ 11.1 _ 19.9 _ -3.8 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 65

Pauldry _________________ 11.1 _ 19.9 _ -4.0 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 68

MrSkinner _______________ 11.0 _ 20.0 _ -1.5 _ 123 _ 100 ___ 61

Jpmarn _________________ 10.9 _ 21.5 _ -3.2 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 64

Adam240610 _____________10.8 _ 19.6 _ -2.9 _ 152 _ 080 ___ 54

Mr stonewall _____________ 10.6 _ 21.1 _ -3.9 _ 106 _ 092 ___ 67

M.T. Cranium _____________10.6 _ 20.9 _ -2.3 _ 135 _ 095 ___ 58

Sunflower3 ______________ 10.6 _ 20.4 _ -3.9 _ 110 _ 087 ___ 61

DOCARCH _______________ 10.5 _ 19.9 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 53

Dasa29 __ (-1) ___________10.5 _ 19.0 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 50

___ Consensus  ___________10.5 _ 19.8 _ -3.7 _ 110 _ 094 ___ 60

Okla ____ (-4) ___________ 10.5 _ 18.8 _ -2.9 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 60

Bsal ____________________10.4 _ 19.5 _ -3.7 _ 133 _ 089 ___ 56

Dacogawa _______________ 10.3 _ 19.8 _ -3.6 _ 144 _ 094 ___ 66

waterways _______________10.3 _ 19.2 _ -5.2 _ 107 _ 108 ___ 54

Appledrop _______________ 10.2 _ 20.5 _ -4.2 _ 112 _ 105 ___ 62

Rameire _________________10.2 _ 19.1 _ -3.4 _ 112 _ 085 ___ 49

Tae laidir ________________ 10.2 _ 19.0 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 088 ___ 60

___ NormaL ______________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 54

WolfeEire _________________9.9 _ 19.3 _ -4.1 _ 108 _ 098 ___ 61

sryanbruen _______________ 9.7 _ 19.0 _ -4.2 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 55

Artane2002 _______________9.6 _ 19.1 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 62

Gonzo ___________________ 9.4 _ 19.1 _ -3.8 _ 121 _ 087 ___ 58

_______________________________

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update Jan to Oct 2024

Table is now ordered by best 8/10 of scores (two lowest scores are not incl) … Ranks appear in same locations as before, so table-generating column is now at right end of scoring data, ranks for total score remain in first (left) column.

Ranks _ FORECASTER 

now(prev) __ __ __ __ __ __ J _ F _ M _ A __ M _ J _ J _ A __ S _ O __(2024)_(8/10)(rank)(prev)

01_(01)__MrSkinner _____ 64 _76 _78 _66 _60 _66 _68 _81 _59 _75 __693__ 574 (1)_(2)

02_(04t)_Kindred Spirit ___65 _53 _66 _85 _66 _50 _64 _82 _50 _75 __656__ 556 (2)_(7)

05t_(03)__sryanbruen_____89 _38 _44 _70 _59 _47 _86 _86 _64 _51 __634__ 552 (3)_(1)

04_(06)__Artane2002 ____ 77 _48 _75 _68 _79 _45 _66 _74 _44 _64 __640__ 551 (4)_(3)

2.0_(1.8)__ Con Sensus ___ 72 _48 _60 _90 _59 _63 _63 _75_ 64 _60 __654__ 547 (4.5)(3.0)

07_(07)__WolfeEire ______ 68 _39 _37 _75 _62 _58 _75 _75 _71 _60 __620__ 544 (5)_(t4)

03_(02)__ Pauldry _______ 75 _52 _64 _81 _52 _62 _61 _65 _74 _61 __647__ 543 (6)_(6)

08t_(10)__Dasa29________41 _50 _78 _71 _31 _49 _62 _78 _76 _73 __609__ 537 (7)_(10)

16_(17) __Gonzo ________ 76 _71 _67 _58 _64 _40 _69 _79_ — _52 __576__ 536 (8)_(t4)

05t_(04t)__M.T. Cranium __ 55 _74 _67 _49 _63 _70 _68 _55 _80 _53 __634__ 531 (9)_(8)

9.9_(9.0) ____NormaL ____ 74 _52 _46 _54 _34 _66 _63 _72 _83 _57 __601__ 521 (9.8)(10)

08t_(08)__Mr stonewall____66 _57 _40 _64 _50 _75 _58 _70 _77 _52 __609__ 519 (10)_(9)

12_(14)__Jpmarn ________ 78 _40 _61 _66 _35 _64 _58 _71 _58 _62 __593__ 518 (11)_(12)

13_(11) _DOCARCH ______ 49 _51 _44 _80 _29 _66 _65 _65 _86 _54 __589__ 516 (12)_(11)

11 _(13) _Cornerstonelad __ 59 _29 _49 _83 _53 _48 _76 _80 _55 _60 __592__ 515 (13) _(13)

10_ (09)_ Dacogawa ______ 69 _64 _73 _74 _61 _47 _47 _59 _49 _57__ 600__ 506 (14)_(14)

14_ (15)_Tae laidir ________65 _51 _73 _67 _68 _52 _53 _65 _36 _58 __588__ 501 (15)_(15)

15_ (12)_Sunflower3 ______ 52 _44 _48 _75 _55 _47 _66 _83 _63 _52 __585__ 494 (16)_(16)

19_ (19)__Rameire ________50 _43 _58 _83 _44 _60 _67 _72 _35 _58 __570__ 493 (17)_(18)

21t_(22)__Adam240610____75 _58 _46 _—- _63 _50 _55 _60 _69 _59 __535__ 489 (t18)_(20)

18_ (16)_ Appledrop _______72 _56 _66 _75 _53 _51 _56 _59 _38 _47 __573__ 489 (t18)_(17)

20 _(20)_ Bsal____________59 _38 _70 _77 _42 _46 _60 _57 _61 _55 __565__ 485 (20)_(19)

17 _(18)_john mac ________67 _51 _59 _51 _45 _57 _62 _65 _65 _55 __577__ 481 (21)_(21)

21t_(21)__waterways ______64 _55 _47 _48 _42 _63 _48 _53 _61 _56 __537__ 448 (22)_(22)

23 _(23)_Joe Public _______ 56 _34 _51 _58 _54 _37 _46 _49 _62 _ — __447__ 413 (23)_(23)

------------------------------ will not qualify for best 10/12 later in 2024 -------------- - - -

24_(24)__200motels _____ 66 _--- _58 _ 69 _ —- _34 _ --- _75 _ — _ — _ 302 (5/10)

25 (25)__Esposito _______ 71 _34 _39 _ —- _ —- _ 63 _ --- _ 66 _ — _ — _273 (5/10)

26 (26)__Tazio __________ 57 _62 _44 _ 46 _ —-_ —- _ --- _ —- _ — _ — _207 (4/10)

27 (28) __ Okla … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … —- _ 60 _ 73 _ 133 (2/10)

28 (27) __ The Helpful Engineer … … … … … … … … … … … … … 86 _ —- _ — _ 086 (1/10)

29_(29)__SleetandSnow ___56 _--- _--- _—-_—-_---_ —- _ —- __ — _ — __ 056 (1/10)

30_(30)__Bazlers ________ 33 _--- _--- _—-_—-_--- _ —- _ —- __ — _ — __033 (1/10)

31_(31)__BLIZZARD7 _____26 _--- _--- _—- _—- _ --- _ —-_ —- _ — _ — __026 (1/9)

(b) Category scoring Jan to Oct

max possible scores ..250_200_200_150 _100 _100 ___1000

MrSkinner________190_115 _139_106 _ 76 _ 67 ___ 693

Kindred Spirit ____ 186 _103 _116_106 _ 72 _ 73 ___ 656 

__ Con Sensus _____182 _112 _113_ 99 _ 81 _ 67 ___ 654

Pauldry _________ 206 _112 _ 98 _ 80 _ 77 _ 74 ___ 647

Artane2002______ 179 _122 _121_ 74 _ 80 _ 64 ___ 641

sryanbruen ______ 170 _122 _114_ 92 _ 81 _ 55 ___ 634

M.T. Cranium_____ 190 _ 96 _113 _ 91 _ 77 _ 67 ___ 634

WolfeEire ________176 _119 _100 _ 90 _ 75 _ 64 ___ 624-4 = 620

Mr stonewall______170 _105 _112 _ 77 _ 70 _ 75 ___ 609 

Dasa29 _________ 166 _ 87 _115 _ 96 _ 72 _ 74 ___ 610-1=609

Dacogawa _______ 180 _121 _ 95 _ 64 _ 77 _ 66 ___ 603-3=600

 ____NormaL _____ 168 _103 _106 _ 85 _ 81 _ 58 ___ 601

Jpmarn _________ 159_ 117 _ 98 _ 83 _ 71 _ 65 ___ 593

Cornerstonelad ___ 162 _110 _111 _ 84 _ 51 _ 74 ___ 592

DOCARCH _______ 171 _ 76 _109 _ 92 _ 77 _ 64 ___ 589

Tae laidir ________ 169 _111 _ 98 _ 80 _ 73 _ 57 ___ 588

Sunflower3 ______ 187 _ 73 _ 94 _ 82 _ 77 _ 72 ___ 585

Gonzo __________ 173 _119 _100 _ 63 _ 61 _ 61 ___ 577-1=576 (9/10)

john mac________ 176 _ 68 _ 112_ 80 _ 80 _ 60 ___ 576

Appledrop _______ 185 _ 98 _ 81 _ 57 _ 86 _ 66 ___ 573

Rameire _________157 _ 87 _ 87 _ 94 _ 81 _ 65 ___ 571-1=570

Bsal ____________170 _ 46 _122 _ 79 _ 80 _ 68 ___ 565

waterways _______164 _ 73 _ 70 _ 96 _ 69 _ 65 ___ 537

Adam240610 _____159 _ 70 _ 98 _ 89 _ 68 _ 52 ___ 536-1=535 (9/10)

Joe Public________153 _ 70 _ 71 _ 54 _ 67 _ 32 ___ 447 (9/10)

200motels ________92 _ 49 _ 57 _ 43 _ 40 _ 21 ___ 302 (5/10)

Esposito _________ 94 _ 28 _ 42 _ 36 _ 39 _ 34 ___ 273 (5/10)

Tazio ____________69 _ 36 _ 29 _ 31 _ 24 _ 20 ___ 209-2=207 (5/10)

Okla _____________42 _ 28 _ 15 _ 25 _ 16 _ 11 ___137-4=133 (2/10)

The Helpful Engineer_25 _17 _ 17_ 13 _ 07 _ 07 ____ 86 (1/10)

SleetandSnow _____21 _ 08 _ 02 _ 13 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 56 (1/10)

Bazlers __________ 09 _ 00 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 _ 04 ___ 33 (1/10)

BLIZZARD7 _______03 _ 00 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 28-2 =026 (1/10)

___________________________________

Note: Late penalties are applied to total category scoring and are incorporated into monthly scores.

In category scoring, high score is bold, second is bold italic, and third is plain italic font.

IMT ___one forecaster in first and two tied second.

MAX __two forecasters tied first, and one in third.

MIN __one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

PRC __two forecasters tied in first and also third. (Con Sensus is also third).

SUN __one forecaster in first and two tied second (no third awarded) (Con Sensus and Normal are also tied second).

Bonus _one forecaster in first, and three are tied second.

======================================

Note: total of best category scores is 734/1000.

___________________________