October 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (average mean temp for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon) for October 2024. The 1981-2010 average is 10.1.
2. Predict the MAX temp at any of the 25 official locations listed daily on the met-ie website.
3. Predict the MIN (details same as above)
4. Predict the PRC (percentage of normal rainfall at eleven locations including the five in part one above and also Malin, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown, Cork and Valentia.)
5. Predict the SUN (percentage of normal at six locations around Ireland).
6. BONUS _ Predict the maximum wind gust to be recorded at any of the regular reporting sites on the met-ie website (knots) during Oct 2024 (no loc'n, dates required).

M.T. Cranium _________10.6 _ 20.9 _ -2.3 _ 135 _ 095 __ 58 kt

NormaL _____________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 54 kt

The deadline as always is 0300h on 1st of month with late penalties of one point per four hours or portion, increasing to one point per hour after 1500h 2nd.

Bsal

Bsal _____________ 10.4 _ 19.5 _ -3.7 _ 133 _ 89 __ 56 kt

pauldry

Pauldry____________ 11.1_ 19.9 _ -4_ 140 _ 90 __ 68 kt

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____________ 9.7 _ 19.0 _ -4.2 _ 110 _ 95 __ 55 kt

John mac

john mac _____________ 11.1 _ 21.2 _ -3.4 _ 102 _ 98 __ 50 kt

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad___11.5___22___-2.2__100__82___57kt

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 11.1 ___ 19.9 ___ -3.8 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 65kn.

Artane2002

Artane2002 _____________ 9.6 _ 19.1 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 95 __ 62 kt

WolfeEire

WolfeEire______________9.9 _ 19.3 _ -4.1 _ 108 _ 98 __ 61 kt

waterways

waterways _____________ 10.3 _ 19.2 _ -5.2 _ 107 _ 108 __ 54 kt

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ____________ 10.9 _ 21.5 _ -3.2 _ 100 _ 110 __ 64 k

rameire

Rameire _____________ 10.2 _ 19.1 _ -3.4 _ 112 _ 85 __ 49 kt

Gonzo

Gonzo _____________ 9.4 _ 19.1 _ -3.8 _ 121 _ 087 __ 58 kt

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _________10.5 _ 19.9 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 090 __ 53kt

appledrop

Appledrop 10.2___20.5___-4.2___112__105__62kt

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall___10.6___21.1__-3.9___106__92__67kt

dacogawa

Dacogawa ___10.3___19.8___-3.6___144__94__66kt

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _____________ 10.2 _ 19.0 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 88 __ 60 kt

sunflower3

Sunflower3_____________ 10.6 _ 20.4 _ -3.9 _ 110 _ 87__ 61 kt

adam240610

Adam240610________ 10.8 _ 19.6_ -2.9 _ 152 _ 80 __ 54 kt

mrskinner

MrSkinner___11___20___-1.5___123___100___61

dasa29

Dasa29 _________10.5 _ 19.0 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 095 __ 50kt

Forgot to do this last night.

okla

Okla____10.5___18.8___-2.9___85__90___60kt

WolfeEire

Max for month so far of 17.2c in Claremorris

Min of +3.7c in Valentia

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for October 2024

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max wind gust (kt)

Cornerstonelad ___________ 11.5 _ 22.0 _ -2.2 _ 100 _ 082 ___ 57

john mac ________________11.1 _ 21.2 _ -3.4 _ 102 _ 098 ___ 50

Kindred Spirit ____________ 11.1 _ 19.9 _ -3.8 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 65

Pauldry _________________ 11.1 _ 19.9 _ -4.0 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 68

MrSkinner _______________ 11.0 _ 20.0 _ -1.5 _ 123 _ 100 ___ 61

Jpmarn _________________ 10.9 _ 21.5 _ -3.2 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 64

Adam240610 _____________10.8 _ 19.6 _ -2.9 _ 152 _ 080 ___ 54

Mr stonewall _____________ 10.6 _ 21.1 _ -3.9 _ 106 _ 092 ___ 67

M.T. Cranium _____________10.6 _ 20.9 _ -2.3 _ 135 _ 095 ___ 58

Sunflower3 ______________ 10.6 _ 20.4 _ -3.9 _ 110 _ 087 ___ 61

DOCARCH _______________ 10.5 _ 19.9 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 53

Dasa29 __ (-1) ___________10.5 _ 19.0 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 50

___ Consensus ___________10.5 _ 19.8 _ -3.7 _ 110 _ 094 ___ 60

Okla ____ (-4) ___________ 10.5 _ 18.8 _ -2.9 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 60

Bsal ____________________10.4 _ 19.5 _ -3.7 _ 133 _ 089 ___ 56

Dacogawa _______________ 10.3 _ 19.8 _ -3.6 _ 144 _ 094 ___ 66

waterways _______________10.3 _ 19.2 _ -5.2 _ 107 _ 108 ___ 54

Appledrop _______________ 10.2 _ 20.5 _ -4.2 _ 112 _ 105 ___ 62

Rameire _________________10.2 _ 19.1 _ -3.4 _ 112 _ 085 ___ 49

Tae laidir ________________ 10.2 _ 19.0 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 088 ___ 60

___ NormaL _____________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 54

WolfeEire _________________9.9 _ 19.3 _ -4.1 _ 108 _ 098 ___ 61

sryanbruen _______________ 9.7 _ 19.0 _ -4.2 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 55

Artane2002 _______________9.6 _ 19.1 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 62

Gonzo ___________________ 9.4 _ 19.1 _ -3.8 _ 121 _ 087 ___ 58

_______________________________

General expectation is a slightly warmer than average October, a bit cloudy and wet, one (at least) significant cold spell, possibly stormy on one occasion at least.

Consensus is 12th ranked value (of 23 excl NormaL), will be average of 12th and 13th if Joe Public posts a forecast.

DOCARCH

To kick things off….yesterday….max/min.

Shannon AP 17.3c

Mount Dillon 3.1c

WolfeEire

Top monthly gust so far is 31 knots at Mace Head (Oct 3rd)
Max 17.3c (Shannon, 2 Oct)
Min 3.1c (Mount Dillon, 2 Oct)

DOCARCH

High of 18.4c at Athenry yesterday.

Gust of 35 knots at Malin Head yesterday.

WolfeEire

Scrap that

DOCARCH

Gust of 47 knots at Roches Point yesterday.

Joe Public

I was away, I missed this month

DOCARCH

High of 18.6c at Belmullet yesterday.

pauldry

Dubs pushing that high today.

WolfeEire

Casement with monthly high of 18.9c

Tae laidir

18.9

M.T. Cranium

After first week …

IMT _ 13.1 (1.6 above normal)

MAX _ 18.9

MIN __ 3.6

PRC __ 97% of normal

SUN __ 97.5% of normal

Max wind gust (kt) _ 47

DOCARCH

Low of -0.7c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

May be short lived low for the month as a good few -1c's out there this morning.

pauldry

-1.2c Mullingar, Mt Dillon was -1c too

DOCARCH

Low of -1.6c at Moore Park yesterday.

pauldry

Tonight might go low. After that not too many cold nights. Mild enough for next week.

appledrop

A few showers out there today,but it's beautiful when sun comes out.

We collected some huge conkers in the park, love this time of year with the leaves underfoot.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks …

IMT _ 10.6 (0.5 below normal) _ second week cool, 8.1 (2.6 below normal)

MAX _ 18.9

MIN __ -1.6

PRC __ 70% of normal ( second week dry, 41% of normal )

SUN __ 118% of normal ( second week 138% of normal )

Max wind gust (kt) _ 47

pauldry

MAX of 19.1c in Athenry yesterday

Tae laidir

Belmullet gusted 54 knots yesterday.

Should be beaten tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for wind speeds (knots)

=

Pauldry _________________68

Mr stonewall _____________67

Dacogawa _______________66

Kindred Spirit ____________65

Jpmarn _________________64

Appledrop _______________62

Artane2002 ______________62

MrSkinner _______________61

Sunflower3 ______________61

WolfeEire _______________ 61

___ Consensus ___________ 60

Okla ____ (-4) ___________60

Tae laidir _______________ 60

M.T. Cranium ____________ 58

Gonzo __________________58

Cornerstonelad ___________57

Bsal ___________________ 56

sryanbruen______________ 55

___ NormaL ______________54

Adam240610 ____________ 54

waterways ______________ 54

DOCARCH _______________53

john mac ________________50

Dasa29 __ (-1) ___________50

Rameire _________________49

_______________________________

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122737309#Comment_122737309

Mace Head at 67

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122739862#Comment_122739862

70 knots at Mace Head

DOCARCH

Highest gust yesterday was 74 knots at Mace Head.

Decent/old school storm!

Tae laidir

Decent old school forecasting!

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks …

IMT _ 11.1 (0.3 above normal) _ third week 12.2 (2.2 above normal)

MAX _ 19.1

MIN __ -1.6

PRC __ 86% of normal ( third week 117% of normal )

SUN __ 116% of normal ( third week 113% of normal )

Max wind gust (kt) _ 74

That allows for settled scoring of the max wind forecast as follows:

FORECASTER __________ fcst ____ points

Pauldry _________________68 ___ 10

Mr stonewall _____________67 ___ 10

Dacogawa _______________66 ___ 10

Kindred Spirit ____________65 ___ 09

Jpmarn _________________64 ___ 09

Appledrop _______________62 ___ 08

Artane2002 ______________62 ___ 08

MrSkinner _______________61 ___ 07

Sunflower3 ______________61 ___ 07

WolfeEire _______________ 61 ___ 07

___ Consensus ___________ 60 ___ 06

Okla ____ (-4) ___________60 ___ 06

Tae laidir _______________ 60 ___ 06

M.T. Cranium ____________ 58 ___ 05

Gonzo __________________58 ___ 05

Cornerstonelad ___________57 ___ 04

Bsal ___________________ 56 ___ 04

sryanbruen______________ 55 ___ 03

___ NormaL ______________54 ___ 03

Adam240610 ____________ 54 ___ 03

waterways ______________ 54 ___ 03

DOCARCH _______________53 ___ 02

john mac ________________50 ___ 01

Dasa29 __ (-1) ___________50 ___ 01

Rameire _________________49 ___ 01

_______________________________

I was certainly blown away by the result of bonus question …

Tae laidir

I think you missed new Max 19.1.