September 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Several locations 5-6 hrs on 24 Sep, count still 13/24 now. … 0 C at markree and 1 C at mtdillon, Ballyhaise this morning.

M.T. Cranium

Despite cloudy conditions elsewhere, malin's 7.0 takes count to 14/25. Balances earlier days that were fairly bright and failed to add to total.

Also, markree -0.3 not a new min.

M.T. Cranium

No sunshine on 26 Sep, 14/26 now. About 15% was added to PRC as over 130 mm fell at eleven grid locations. Even so, PRC was probably less than 50% before that was added so is now into low 60s (relative to end of Sep, 70s relative to 1-26 Sep). IMT was 13.2 after 25 days and is probably going to be 13.0 after yesterday's 9-10 C average is blended in and 12.8 or 12.9 after today. SUN is likely back down close to average for Sep now after racing forward in week 3.

 

M.T. Cranium

Worth noting, no forecaster went lower than 13.4 (six went for it) and Normal is 13.1 … likely end point is below that (12.6 or 12.7 look favored) … Oops.

Lowest PRC of 71% (Mr Stonewall) may hold a hammer but Adam240610 and myself at 77% won't feel pain, in fact it would be a mild hammer blow on all PRC scores and they may not even need a boost at all; (Sunday could take PRC to or beyond 71%, I expect week 4 report to report near 65% for 1-28 Sep, and 60% for end of Sep, so adding 10-15 per cent of Sep average on Sunday 29 Sep could leave a result close to those three forecasts.

.

M.T. Cranium

15/27 after several locations >7.0 (10.0 JC ++)

Tae laidir

Johnstown another sunny day at 7.9 hours.

pauldry

Feck all these sunny days 😃

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks …

IMT _ 12.8 (0.8 below normal), fourth week 10.6 (1.8 below normal)

MAX _ 25.2

MIN _ -0.8

PRC _ 60% of normal (fourth week 119%) _ today's rainfall is likely to boost it to 70-75 per cent.

SUN _ 106% of normal (fourth week 65%)

BONUS (sunny days)_ 16/28 (3 in fourth week)

_ As bonus scoring always awards 10/10 to closest forecast and 16 was our highest forecast, scoring is settled regardless of whether or not 30th adds a day (don't think today did).

MrStonewall at 16 days scores 10/10, and forecasts of 15 days score 9, etc.

_ Cork is seeing 35-40 mm rain today but overall the grid may add equivalent of 10%, so PRC will probably end in 70 to 75 range, will report on where that stands tomorrow.

IMT scoring will need a boost, Normal will score 24/25 and forecasters will start at 23/25, differentials except for Normal will be same as raw scores so field all gain 5-6 depending on final IMT (expect 12.7).

SUN will end close to 100% to be confirmed on 2nd.

Will leave scoring for then.

Tae laidir

Cork got 51.3mm in the end.

mr.stonewall

Shannon got 7.6 hours of sub yesterday. That knocked me from having the bonus bang on

M.T. Cranium

So 17/30 was final for bonus as noted above, and IMT was 12.7 C, PRC looks to be around 75% (will verify) and SUN probably a little over 100% (again, will verify). Scoring follows tomorrow, I hope.

pauldry

October 1/1....oh wait wer not doing it this month 😫

appledrop

I'll save you the bother M.T, my score for this month was 0. I was miles off on everything!

I actually think the winner this month shoud he the lowest score😉

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for Sept 2024

… reviewed after verifying estimates …

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___ BONUS ___ TOTALS

____ final values ___12.7_25.2_-0.8_076_101___17*

DOCARCH __________23^_ 20 _ 16 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 06 _____ 86

___Normal _________ 25^_ 18 _ 18 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 07 _____ 83

M.T. Cranium _______ 21^_ 15 _ 14 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 09 _____ 80

Mr stonewall ________18^_ 14 _ 16 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 77

Dasa29 ____________22^_ 08 _ 18 _ 09 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 76

Pauldry ____________23^_ 11 _ 12 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 07 _____ 74

Wolfeeire ___ (-2) ___ 17^_ 20 _ 11 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 06 _73-2=71

Adam240610 _______ 21^_ 07 _ 12 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 08 _____ 69

john mac __________ 18^_ 12 _ 10 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 08 _____ 65

sryanbruen ________ 23^_ 03 _ 18 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 04 _____ 64

___Con Sensus _____ 21^_ 08 _ 12 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 05 _____ 64

Sunflower3 ________ 23^_ 06 _ 13 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 04 _____ 63

Joe Public _________ 22^_ 03 _ 15 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 05 _____ 62

Bsal ______________ 20^_ 00 _ 17 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 06 _____ 61

waterways _________20^_ 13 _ 05 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 61

Okla ______________23^_ 11 _ 03 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 05 _____ 60

Mr Skinner_________ 16^_ 19 _ 01 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 05 _____ 59

Jpmarn ____________14^_ 12 _ 04 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 08 _____ 58

Cornerstonelad _____ 17^_ 00 _ 12 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 09 _____ 55

Kindred Spirit ______ 23^_ 07 _ 00 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 05 _____ 50

Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 18^_ 14 _ 07 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 05 _51-2=49

Artane2002 ________21^_ 05 _ 00 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 05 _____ 44

Appledrop _________ 22^_ 00 _ 02 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 04 _____ 38

Tae laidir __________ 16^_ 02 _ 01 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 36

Rameire ___ (-1) ___ 19^_ 00 _ 02 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 03 _36-1=35

==================================

^ all raw scores incr by 5, except NormaL by 4.

*… 17/30 sunny days scored +1 as bonus always scores 10 for best forecast(s)

___________________________________________

(forecasts)

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ BONUS (sunny days)

Jpmarn ____________ 14.3 _ 26.0 _ 0.8 _ 085 _ 110 ______ 14

Tae laidir ___________14.1 _ 23.4 _ 1.1 _ 112 _ 105 ___ 11

Mr Skinner__________14.1 _ 25.1 _ 1.1 _ 091 _ 111 ___ 11

Cornerstonelad ______14.0 _ 23.0 _ 0.0 _ 089 _ 120 _______ 15

Wolfeeire ___ (-2) ___ 14.0 _ 25.2 _ 0.1 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 12

john mac __________ 13.9 _ 26.0 _ 0.2 _ 098 _ 107 ______ 14

Mr stonewall ________13.9 _ 24.6 _-0.4 _ 071 _ 123 ________ 16

Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 13.9 _ 24.6 _ 0.5 _ 122 _ 086 ___ 11

Rameire ____ (-1) ___13.8 _ 22.7 _ 1.0 _ 109 _ 088 _ 9

waterways _________ 13.7 _ 25.9 _-2.3 _ 088 _ 115 ___ 11

Bsal ______________ 13.7 _ 22.9 _-0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 12

M.T. Cranium _______ 13.6 _ 24.7 _-0.2 _ 077 _ 118 _______ 15

___Con Sensus _____ 13.6 _ 24.0 _ 0.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 11

Adam240610 _______ 13.6 _ 23.9 _ 0.0 _ 077 _ 121 ______ 14

Artane2002 ________ 13.6 _ 23.7 _ 1.2 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 11

Dasa29 ___________ 13.5 _ 24.0 _-1.0 _ 095 _ 100 _______ 15

Joe Public __________13.5 _ 23.5 _-1.3 _ 095 _ 111 ___ 11

Appledrop _________ 13.5 _ 22.9 _ 1.0 _ 115 _ 089 __ 10

DOCARCH _________ 13.4 _ 25.2 _-1.2 _ 082 _ 110 ____ 12

Okla ______________13.4 _ 24.3 _ 0.9 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 11

Pauldry ___________ 13.4 _ 24.3 _-1.6 _ 082 _ 111 _____ 13

Kindred Spirit ______ 13.4 _ 23.9 _ 1.5 _ 095 _ 120 ___ 11

Sunflower3 ________ 13.4 _ 23.8 _-1.5 _ 090 _ 085 __ 10

sryanbruen ________ 13.4 _ 23.5 _-0.6 _ 100 _ 105 __ 10

___Normal _________13.1 _ 25.0 _-1.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 13

==================================

DOCARCH

I'd suggest no reviewing required! 😅

Gonzo

Unfortunately I completely forgot about this as I was on holidays in Spain when it went live. I remember a few days afterwards once I realized it was September but too late to enter by that point.

appledrop

Well done Docarch great score.

Pity I didn't forgot about it aswell Gonzo, instead I have to look at that score of 37😊.

Seriously though the weather is so all over the place this year I can't get a handle on it at all for predictions.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update Jan to Sep 2024

Table is now ordered by best 7/9 of scores (two lowest scores are not incl) … Ranks appear in same locations as before, so table-generating column is now at right end of scoring data, ranks for total score remain in first (left) column. Prev (previous) best 7 of 9 was best 7 of 8 after Aug contest.

Ranks _ FORECASTER 

now(prev) __ __ __ __ __JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP__(2024)_ (7/9) (rank)(prev)

03_(05)__sryanbruen _____89 _38 _ 44 _70 _ 59 _47 _ 86 _86_ 64 __ 583 ___ 501 (1)_ (t4)

01_(01)__MrSkinner _____ 64 _76 _ 78 _66 _ 60 _66 _ 68 _81_ 59 __ 618 ___ 499 (2) _(1)

06_(04)__Artane2002 ____ 77 _48 _ 75 _68 _ 79 _45 _ 66 _74_ 44 __ 576 ___ 487 (3) _(2)

1.8_(3.1)__ Con Sensus ___72 _48 _ 60 _90 _ 59 _63 _ 63 _75_ 64 __ 594 ___ 487 (3.0)(3.7)

17_(04) __Gonzo ________ 76 _71 _ 67 _58 _ 64 _40 _ 69 _79_ —- __ 524 ___ 484 (t4) _(3)

07_(10)__WolfeEire _______68 _39 _ 37 _75 _ 62 _58 _ 75 _75_ 71 __ 560 ___ 484 (t4)_(t7)

04t_(03)__Kindred Spirit ___65 _53 _ 66 _85 _ 66 _50 _ 64 _82_ 50 __ 581 ___ 482 (t6)_(t4)

02_(06)__ Pauldry ________75 _52 _ 64 _81 _ 52 _62 _ 61 _65_ 74 __ 586 ___ 482 (t6)_ (6)

04t_(07)__M.T. Cranium ___ 55 _74 _ 67 _49 _ 63 _70 _ 68 _55_ 80 __ 581 ___ 477 (8) _(t7)

08_ (12)__Mr stonewall ____66 _57 _ 40 _64 _ 50 _75 _ 58 _70_ 77 __ 557 ___ 467 (9)_ (12)

10 _(17)__Dasa29________ 41 _50 _ 78 _71 _ 31 _49 _ 62 _78_ 76 __ 536 ___ 464 (10)_(16)

9.0_(16.9) ____NormaL ____74 _52 _ 46 _54 _ 34 _66 _ 63 _72_ 83 __ 544 ___ 464 (10)(15.9)

11_(t19) _DOCARCH ______49 _51 _ 44 _80 _ 29 _66 _ 65 _65_ 86 __ 535 ___ 462 (11)_(18)

14_(15)__Jpmarn ________ 78 _40 _ 61 _66 _ 35 _64 _ 58 _71_ 58 __ 531 ___ 456 (12)_(13)

13 _(t13)_Cornerstonelad __59 _29 _ 49 _83 _ 53 _48 _ 76 _80_ 55 __ 532 ___ 455 (13) _(9)

09_ (t08)_ Dacogawa _____ 69 _64 _ 73 _74 _ 61 _47 _ 47 _59_ 49 __ 543 ___ 449 (14)_(10)

15_ (t08)_Tae laidir _______ 65 _51 _ 73 _67 _ 68 _52 _ 53 _65_ 36 __ 530 ___ 444 (15)_(11)

12_ (16)_Sunflower3 ______ 52 _44 _ 48 _75 _ 55 _47 _ 66 _83_ 63 __ 533 ___ 442 (16)_(17)

16_ (11)_ Appledrop _______72 _56 _ 66 _75 _ 53 _51 _ 56 _59_ 38 __ 526 ___ 438 (17)_(14)

19_ (t13)__Rameire _______50 _43 _ 58 _83 _ 44 _60 _ 67 _72_ 35 __ 512 ___ 435 (18)_(15)

20 _(t19)_Bsal____________59 _38 _ 70 _77 _ 42 _46 _ 60 _57_ 61 __ 510 ___ 430 (19)_(20)

22 _(22)__Adam240610____75 _58 _ 46 _—- _ 63 _50 _ 55 _60_ 69 __ 476 ___ 430 (20)_(21)

18_(18)_john mac ________ 67 _51 _ 59 _51 _ 45 _57 _ 62 _65_ 65 __ 522 ___ 426 (21)_(19)

21 _(21)__waterways _____ 64 _55 _ 47 _48 _ 42 _63 _ 48 _53_ 61 __ 481 ___ 392 (22)_(22)

23_(23)_Joe Public________ 56 _34 _ 51 _58 _ 54 _37 _ 46 _49_ 62 __ 447 ___ 376 (23)_(23)

------------------------------ will not qualify for best 10/12 later in 2024 -------------- - - -

24_(24)__200motels _____ 66 _--- _ 58 _ 69 _ —- _34 _ --- _75 _ — __ 302 (5/9)

25 (25)__Esposito _______ 71 _34 _ 39 _ —- _ —- _ 63 _ --- _ 66 _ — __273 (5/9)

26 (26)__Tazio __________ 57 _62 _ 44 _ 46 _ —-_ —- _ --- _ —- _ — __207 (4/9)

27 (27) __ The Helpful Engineer … … … … … … … … … … … … … 86 _ —- __ 086 (1/9)

28 (—-) __ Okla … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … —- _ 60 __ 060 (1/9)

29_(28)__SleetandSnow ___56 _--- _--- _—-_—-_---_ —- _ —- __ — ___ 056 (1/9)

30_(29)__Bazlers ________ 33 _--- _--- _—-_—-_--- _ —- _ —- __ — ___033 (1/9)

31_(30)__BLIZZARD7 _____26 _--- _--- _—- _—- _ --- _ —-_ —- _ — ___026 (1/9)

(b) Category scoring Jan to Sep

max possible scores ..225_180_180_135 _ 90 _ 90 ___ 900

MrSkinner________166 _104 _119_103_ 66 _ 60 ___ 618

__ Con Sensus _____163 _ 99 _106_ 93 _ 72 _ 61 ___ 594

Pauldry _________ 181 _100 _ 93 _ 79 _ 69 _ 64 ___ 586

sryanbruen ______ 159 _103 _111_ 86 _ 72 _ 52 ___ 583

M.T. Cranium_____ 170 _ 94 _ 98 _ 89 _ 68 _ 62 ___ 581

Kindred Spirit ____ 161 _ 91 _109_ 94 _ 62 _ 64 ___ 581 

Artane2002______ 169 _102 _113_ 65 _ 71 _ 56 ___ 576

WolfeEire ________163 _101 _ 96 _ 82 _ 65 _ 57 ___ 564-4 = 560

Mr stonewall______150 _105 _106_ 69 _ 62 _ 65 ___ 557 

 ____NormaL _____ 153 _ 97 _ 95 _ 73 _ 71 _ 55 ___ 544

Dasa29 _________ 147 _ 68 _101_ 84 _ 63 _ 73 ___ 536

DOCARCH _______ 152 _ 64 _ 99 _ 89 _ 69 _ 62 ___ 535

Dacogawa _______ 163 _108 _ 88 _ 63 _ 68 _ 56 ___ 546-3=543

Sunflower3 ______ 167 _ 66 _ 89 _ 76 _ 70 _ 65 ___ 533

Cornerstonelad ___ 141 _110 _ 94 _ 72 _ 45 _ 70 ___ 532

Jpmarn _________ 136_ 117 _ 88 _ 71 _ 63 _ 56 ___ 531

Tae laidir ________ 153 _ 92 _ 92 _ 77 _ 65 _ 51 ___ 530

Appledrop _______ 169 _ 92 _ 78 _ 52 _ 77 _ 58 ___ 526  

Gonzo __________ 165 _ 99 _ 94 _ 57 _ 54 _ 56 ___ 525-1=524 (8/9)

john mac________ 151 _ 68 _103_ 70 _ 70 _ 59 ___ 521

Rameire _________141 _ 67 _ 78 _ 89 _ 74 _ 64 ___ 513-1=512

Bsal ____________152 _ 30 _115_ 77 _ 72 _ 64 ___ 510

waterways _______147 _ 54 _ 69 _ 88 _ 61 _ 62 ___ 481

Adam240610 _____137 _ 55 _ 86 _ 88 _ 62 _ 49 ___ 477-1=476 (8/9)

Joe Public________153 _ 70 _ 71 _ 54 _ 67 _ 32 ___ 447

200motels ________92 _ 49 _ 57 _ 43 _ 40 _ 21 ___ 302 (5/9)

Esposito _________ 94 _ 28 _ 42 _ 36 _ 39 _ 34 ___ 273 (5/9)

Tazio ____________69 _ 36 _ 29 _ 31 _ 24 _ 20 ___ 209-2=207 (5/9)

The Helpful Engineer_25 _17 _ 17_ 13 _ 07 _ 07 ____ 86 (1/9)

Okla _____________23 _ 11 _ 03 _ 10 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 60 (1/9)

SleetandSnow _____21 _ 08 _ 02 _ 13 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 56 (1/9)

Bazlers __________ 09 _ 00 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 _ 04 ___ 33 (1/9)

BLIZZARD7 _______03 _ 00 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 28-2 =026 (1/9)

___________________________________

Note: Late penalties are applied to total category scoring and are incorporated into monthly scores.

In category scoring, high score is bold, second is bold italic, and third is plain italic font.

IMT ___one forecaster in first and second, two tied third.

MAX __one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

MIN __one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

PRC __one forecaster in first and second, 3 tied third. (Con Sensus is also one point lower than second).

SUN __one forecaster in first and second, two tied third. (Con Sensus is also tied third).

Bonus _one forecaster in first, one in second, and two are tied third.

======================================

Note: total of best category scores is 669/900.

___________________________

All of above now confirmed.

M.T. Cranium

After a review of m.s., estimates generally good, almost every score will be +1 as PRC was 76% not 74%.

… congrats to DOCARCH for Sep score, and sryanbruen, MrSkinner virtually tied now that we are dropping two scores. Annual contest is fairly tight, in best 10/12 (eventual) scoring at least. Total score category is not as close, MrSkinner doing well … Pauldry is closing in on leaders. Artane2002, KindredSpirit and your host are all trying to keep pace.

Several others are not out of contention (Gonzo incl for 10/12).

… going in to edit above posts, changes will be slight.