Boards weather forecast contest for July 2024

M.T. Cranium

Predict ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS

(details) _ Normal ___ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ location of MAX - normal scores by climatology

M.T. Cranium _______ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 3.7 _ 105 _ 095 ____ Phoenix Park

(Bonus — predict location of MAX, correct = 10/10, location of 2nd highest temp 9/10, etc. )

Deadline as always 0300 of 1st (July), late penalties 1 point every 4 hours or significant fraction, to 36h, then 1 point per hour.

Note: for location of max, choose from the 25 locations normally listed on met.ie website for daily data. A non-included location will be assigned to one of those at organizer's discretion.

Con Sensus scores for location based on distribution of forecasts, to be determined. Normal scores based on climatology. All daily temps will be monitored to get a top ten list, it won't just be top ten on day max is set (but that of course will determine first place in top ten).

pauldry

Pauldry _______ 14.7 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 125 _ 090____ Phoenix Park

Gonzo

Gonzo _______ 14.9 _ 25.3 _ 3.8 _ 137 _ 087____ Phoenix Park

sunflower3

Sunflower3_______ 15.1_ 27.2 _ 4.1 _ 115 _ 092____ Phoenix Park

sryanbruen

sryanbruen_______ 15.2_ 26.0 _ 4.9 _ 095 _ 090____ Oak Park

Artane2002

Artane2002_______ 16.0_ 27.3 _ 4.6 _ 105 _ 085____ Oak Park

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______ 15.4_ 29.5 _ 4.1 _ 090 _ 102 ____ Oak Park

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ____ 15.5 ___ 28.0 ___ 4.0 ___ 100 ___ 95 ___ Oak Park.

dasa29

Dasa29 _______ 15.0_ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 080 _ 120 ____ Mullingar

WolfeEire

WolfeEire________15.3 _ 27 _ 4.8 _ 107 _ 93 _ Phoenix Park

waterways

waterways ____ 15.9 ___ 28.4 ___ 3.4 ___ 97 ___ 109 ___ Mount Dillon

mrskinner

Skinner ___15.8__27.4__4.4__90__90__Phoenix.

John mac

John mac ___ 16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.9 _ 98 _ 103 ___ Newport

rameire

Rameire ___ 15.8 _ 26.6 _ 3.5 _ 094 _ 098 ___ Oak Park

Tae laidir

Tae laidir_______ 16.1 _ 28.2 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 93 ____ Casement

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall ___15.8___27.8___3.9___77___115__Mount Dillon

adam240610

Adam240610_____ 15.8 _ 27.9__ 3.5 _ 88 _ 111__phoenix park

Jpmarn

Jpmarn  _______ 15.7 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____Shannon

dacogawa

Dacogawa_______ 15.5 _ 29.1_ 3.7 _ 112 _ 075 ____ Phoenix Park

Bsal

Bsal ___ 16.0 _ 28.0 _ 4.1 _ 101 _ 97 ___ Oak Park

appledrop

Appledrop____15.0__27.1___3.2___135___86__Oak Park

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad _____14.8___25.9___4____120___85____Oak Park

Joe Public

Joe Public _______ 15.6 _ 29.4 _ 3.3 _ 110 _ 098 ____ Phoenix Park

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts July 2024

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ loc'n of MAX

John mac __________ 16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.9 _ 098 _ 103 ___ Newport

Tae laidir ___________16.1 _ 28.2 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 093 ___ Casement

Bsal _______________16.0 _ 28.0 _ 4.1 _ 101 _ 097 ___ Oak Park

Artane2002 _________16.0 _ 27.3 _ 4.6 _ 105 _ 085 ___ Oak Park

waterways _________ 15.9 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 097 _ 109 ___ Mount Dillon

Adam240610 _______ 15.8 _ 27.9 _ 3.5 _ 088 _ 111 ___ Phoenix Park

Mr Stonewall ________15.8 _ 27.8 _ 3.9 _ 077 _ 115 ___ Mount Dillon

Mr Skinner _________ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 4.4 _ 090 _ 090 ___ Phoenix Park

Rameire ___________ 15.8 _ 26.6 _ 3.5 _ 094 _ 098 ___ Oak Park

Jpmarn ____________ 15.7 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ___ Shannon

Joe Public __________ 15.6 _ 29.4 _ 3.3 _ 110 _ 098 ___ Phoenix Park

Dacogawa __________15.5 _ 29.1 _ 3.7 _ 112 _ 075 ___ Phoenix Park

___Con Sensus ______15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 100 _ 093 ___ see discussion below

Kindred Spirit _______15.5 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 095 ___ Oak Park

_ NormaL __________ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ (scores by climatology)

DOCARCH __________15.4 _ 29.5 _ 4.1 _ 090 _ 102 ___ Oak Park

M.T. Cranium _______ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 3.7 _ 105 _ 095 ___ Phoenix Park

WolfeEire __________ 15.3 _ 27.0 _ 4.8 _ 107 _ 093 ___ Phoenix Park

sryanbruen _________15.2 _ 26.0 _ 4.9 _ 095 _ 090 ___ Oak Park

Sunflower3 _________15.1 _ 27.2 _ 4.1 _ 115 _ 092 ___ Phoenix Park

Dasa29 ____________15.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 080 _ 120 ___ Mullingar

Appledrop __________15.0 _ 27.1 _ 3.2 _ 135 _ 086 ___ Oak Park

Gonzo _____________14.9 _ 25.3 _ 3.8 _ 137 _ 087___ Phoenix Park

Cornerstonelad ______14.8 _ 25.9 _ 4.0 _ 120 _ 085 ___ Oak Park

Pauldry ____________14.7 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 125 _ 090 ___ Phoenix Park

=======================

Locations for MAX (and scores for Con Sensus if correct) _

Phoenix Park ______ 9 __ (scores 10)

Oak Park _________ 8 __ (scores 9)

Mountdillon _______ 2 __ (scores 5)

Shannon, Newport,

Casement, Mullingar _ 1 _ (scores 3)

If none of above, Con scores zero.

If PP or OP are not first but score above assigned score for top location, Con will score +1 relative to lower assigned score.

Your score will be rank of your pick in top ten … given small number of picks, non-picks will count in scoring. For example, let's say moorepark is 3rd warmest, no bonus scores of 8 will be awarded, ties of picked and unpicked locations will be ignored, and ranks will be exclusive of ties, so if let's say Oak Park and Newport and tied second for 9 points, next on list will count 8 not seven points.

NormaL will score 10 for PP, 9 for OP or Shannon, 8 for Mountdillon, 7 for Casement, 6 for Moorepark, 5 for Dublin, Mullingar or Dunsany, 4 for Athenry, Claremorris or Newport, and 1 to 3 for any other.

Tae laidir

I haven't been following temp, but Mullingar had a 5.6 yesterday.

pauldry

Claremorris 5.2c today.

M.T. Cranium

After first week …

IMT _ 13.0 C (2.0 below normal)

MAX _ not tracked yet

MIN _ 5.2

PRC _ 88% of normal

SUN _ 99% of normal

_ loc'n of MAX not tracked yet

… brr …

Tae laidir

Mt Dillon 22.3 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After second week …

IMT _ 13.7 C (2.0 below normal) with second week 14.4 (1.0 below normal)

MAX _ 22.3 (now 23.4 Newport 15 July)

MIN _ 5.2

PRC _ 84% of normal (second week average 79%, very dry west, north)

SUN _ 94.5% of normal (second week average 90%)

_ loc'n of MAX _ will start with readings associated with 22.3 reported on 13th …

hopefully all to be replaced later … Newport on 15th could change this list.

1. now Newport 23.4 (15)

1. Newport 23.4 (15)
2. Mountdillon 22.3 (13)
3. Athenry 22.2 (13)
4. Gurteen 21.0 (13)
5. Mullingar 20.6 (13,14)
6. Oak Park 20.5 (13) t Shannon (14)

for now will only list values above 20.5, Athenry hit 21.7 on 14th but had exceeded that on 13th (only a station's highest value of July counts for list).

GFS output now available to end of month suggests following:

IMT would slowly rise to around 14.6 to 14.8

MAX and MIN would be challenged a few times but no actual values exceed current noted values. But GFS can be rather conservative so would say 23, 4 could easily occur within a high-verification outcome (or the outcome could be totally different past seven days as is sometimes the case)

PRC would end up around 80% (but I have seen wetter guidance in recent days that would go as high as 120%)

Will continue to update MAX locations as new readings above 20.5 take place.

If we don't see a substantial rise, I may check back 1st to 12th at contest chosen sites to make sure we didn't miss any 20.5+ values. But I'll abandon that idea if entire list starts to fill in above 22 (as it would in 90% of Julys of past)

pauldry

Newport was 23c today.

WolfeEire

Newport finished 23.4c yesterday

M.T. Cranium

Oddly, max of 23.4 at Newport did not bring along any company to top seven of max so far (20.5 or above), rest were all set on previous days. I am fairly sure we'll lose all of entries on list except possibly 23.4 Newport before it's all said and done.

Six days of 37 to 40 C at my location, no sign of relief for a week. Planning day trips to nearby lakes, we already did a four-day coastal escape and at least it was below 30 C. Basically clear and very warm, not a real cloud to be seen, just tiny fracto-cumulus likely puffs of colder air off snow-capped mountains a few miles to our NW. Above 1500m snow still lies on some slopes. We last saw snow on ground down in town around April 15. (local elevation is 1050m) Nearby valleys made it to 42 C recently.

M.T. Cranium

20.8 on 16 July at PPark will join current list. More additions likely after 17 July data review.

pauldry

Around 22c in all Dublin Stations of Casement Dublin A and Pheonix today so theyl all bè on your list MT

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 22.2, Dublin Airport 21.9, Casement 21.8 yesterday

M.T. Cranium

Updated top ten for high max…

1. Newport 23.4 (15)
2. Mountdillon 22.3 (13)
3. Athenry (13), Phoenix Park (17) 22.2
4. (tie above)
5. Dublin A 21.9 (17)
6. Casement 21.8 (17)
7. Gurteen 21.0 (13)
8. Dunsany 20.7 (17)
9. Mullingar 20.6 (13,14)
10. Oak Park 20.5 (13) Shannon 20.5 (14)

pauldry

MIdnight temperatures in Dublin 18c so in the top 20?

Tomorrow might top 24c somewhere with sun. Think 23c is too conservative in forecast.

Tae laidir

Athenry at 21.7 takes 7th spot for the present.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400389#Comment_122400389

It won't be on list since already at 22.2 earlier (13 July). It was Ballyhaise at 21.7 and it's one of two new locations (Malin also), several others moved up yesterday.

Updated top 13 for high max…

1. Newport 23.4 (15)
2. Dublin (A) and Phoenix Park 23.0 (19)
3. (tie above)
4. Mullingar 22.8 (19)
5. Casement and Dunsany 22.6 (19)
6. (tie above)
7. Gurteen 22.4 (19)
8. Mountdillon 22.3 (13)
9. Athenry 22.2 (13)
10. Ballyhaise and Oak Park 21.7 (19)
11. (tie above)
12. Malin 20.7 (19)
13. Shannon 20.5 (14)

Moorepark only 20.1 so far.

M.T. Cranium

After third week …

IMT _ 14.2 C (1.3 below normal) with third week 15.2 (0.5 below normal)

MAX _ 23.4 (our lowest forecast 25.3)

MIN _ 5.2

PRC _ 98% of normal (third week average 125%)

SUN _ 87% of normal (third week average 69%)

_ loc'n of MAX _ see previous post _ Newport leads so far

Min progression will be needed to score Max if it fails to pass 25 C. Gonzo at 25.3 is lowest forecast.

Tae laidir

Oak Park 22.1 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Slig t c anges to location of ig ax list …

1. Newport 23.4 (15)
2. Dublin (A) and Phoenix Park 23.0 (19)
3. (tie above)
4. Mullingar 22.8 (19)
5. Casement and Dunsany 22.6 (19)
6. (tie above)
7. Gurteen 22.4 (19)
8. Mountdillon 22.3 (13)
9. Athenry 22.2 (13)
10. Oak Park 22.1 (22)
11. Ballyhaise 21.7 (19)
12. Malin 20.7 (19) and Shannon 20.7 (22)
13. tie above
14. Moorepark 20.6 (22)

M.T. Cranium

Moorepark 21.2 (23) … won't add to list as it was 22 C today (also Gurteen) so list will be updated on 25 July.

M.T. Cranium

Revised location list …

1. Newport 23.4 (15)
2. Dublin (A) and Phoenix Park 23.0 (19)
3. (tie above)
4. Mullingar 22.8 (19), Gurteen 22.8 (24)
5. (tie above)
6. Shannon and Moorepark 22.7 (24)
7. (tie above)
8. Casement and Dunsany 22.6 (19)
9. (tie above)
10. Mountdillon 22.3 (13)
11. Athenry 22.2 (13)
12. Oak Park 22.1 (22)
13. Ballyhaise 21.7 (19)

WolfeEire

Next Wednesday (31st) looking like the only day that can top Newport. Even then, it will be tight.

DOCARCH

Yesterday….

Mount Dillon 23.3c. Gurteen 23.2c. Casement and Shannon AP 23.1c. Dunsany and Phoenix Park 23.0c.

pauldry

And Claremorris 5.3c (min).

M.T. Cranium

After fourth week …

IMT _ 14.7 C (0.8 below normal) with fourth week 16.0 (0.2 above normal) — likely to end on 15.0

MAX _ 23.4 (our lowest forecast 25.3) _ likely to see at least 24 before end.

MIN _ 5.2 _ 5.3 at Claremorris 28th not quite enough

PRC _ 95% of normal (fourth week average 77%) _ will probably end near 90%

SUN _ 90% of normal (fourth week average 97%) _ could edge up close to 95%

_ loc'n of MAX _ see below _ Newport still leads so far

Min progression will be needed to score Max if it fails to pass 25 C. Gonzo at 25.3 is lowest forecast.

===========

New rankings for loc'n of MAX

1. Newport 23.4 (15)
2. Mountdillon 23.3 (28)
3. Gurteen 23.2 (28) and Phoenix Park 23.2 (29)
4. (tie above)
5. Casement and Shannon 23.1 (28)
6. (tie above)
7. Dublin (A) 23.0 (19), Dunsany 23.0 (28)
8. (tie above)
9. Mullingar 22.8 (19)
10. Moorepark 22.7 (24) and Oak Park 22.7 (28)
11. (tie above)
12. Athenry 22.2 (13)
13. Ballyhaise 21.8 (28)
14. Finner 21.6 (28)
15. Markree 21.3 (28)
16. Claremorris 21.1 (28)
17. Malin 21.0 (28)

Note, list only uses highest values for each location, they could have second or third highest values not in list.

DOCARCH

Phoenix Park 23.3c yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122443536#Comment_122443536

I was able to edit it into table above, but at 23.2 C possibly an edit on website?

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122444217#Comment_122444217

Possibly/probably! They seem to publish figures then edit some at a later stage!