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Boards weather forecast contest for July 2024

M.T. Cranium

Predict ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS

(details) _ Normal ___ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ location of MAX - normal scores by climatology

M.T. Cranium _______ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 3.7 _ 105 _ 095 ____ Phoenix Park

(Bonus — predict location of MAX, correct = 10/10, location of 2nd highest temp 9/10, etc. )

Deadline as always 0300 of 1st (July), late penalties 1 point every 4 hours or significant fraction, to 36h, then 1 point per hour.

Note: for location of max, choose from the 25 locations normally listed on met.ie website for daily data. A non-included location will be assigned to one of those at organizer's discretion.

Con Sensus scores for location based on distribution of forecasts, to be determined. Normal scores based on climatology. All daily temps will be monitored to get a top ten list, it won't just be top ten on day max is set (but that of course will determine first place in top ten).

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pauldry

Pauldry _______ 14.7 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 125 _ 090____ Phoenix Park

Gonzo

Gonzo _______ 14.9 _ 25.3 _ 3.8 _ 137 _ 087____ Phoenix Park

sunflower3

Sunflower3_______ 15.1_ 27.2 _ 4.1 _ 115 _ 092____ Phoenix Park

sryanbruen

sryanbruen_______ 15.2_ 26.0 _ 4.9 _ 095 _ 090____ Oak Park

Artane2002

Artane2002_______ 16.0_ 27.3 _ 4.6 _ 105 _ 085____ Oak Park

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______ 15.4_ 29.5 _ 4.1 _ 090 _ 102 ____ Oak Park

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ____ 15.5 ___ 28.0 ___ 4.0 ___ 100 ___ 95 ___ Oak Park.

dasa29

Dasa29 _______ 15.0_ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 080 _ 120 ____ Mullingar

WolfeEire

WolfeEire________15.3 _ 27 _ 4.8 _ 107 _ 93 _ Phoenix Park

waterways

waterways ____ 15.9 ___ 28.4 ___ 3.4 ___ 97 ___ 109 ___ Mount Dillon

mrskinner

Skinner ___15.8__27.4__4.4__90__90__Phoenix.

John mac

John mac ___ 16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.9 _ 98 _ 103 ___ Newport

rameire

Rameire ___ 15.8 _ 26.6 _ 3.5 _ 094 _ 098 ___ Oak Park

Tae laidir

Tae laidir_______ 16.1 _ 28.2 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 93 ____ Casement

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall ___15.8___27.8___3.9___77___115__Mount Dillon

adam240610

Adam240610_____ 15.8 _ 27.9__ 3.5 _ 88 _ 111__phoenix park

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _______ 15.7 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____Shannon

dacogawa

Dacogawa_______ 15.5 _ 29.1_ 3.7 _ 112 _ 075 ____ Phoenix Park

Bsal

Bsal ___ 16.0 _ 28.0 _ 4.1 _ 101 _ 97 ___ Oak Park

appledrop

Appledrop____15.0__27.1___3.2___135___86__Oak Park

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad _____14.8___25.9___4____120___85____Oak Park

Joe Public

Joe Public _______ 15.6 _ 29.4 _ 3.3 _ 110 _ 098 ____ Phoenix Park

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts July 2024

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ loc'n of MAX

John mac __________ 16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.9 _ 098 _ 103 ___ Newport

Tae laidir ___________16.1 _ 28.2 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 093 ___ Casement

Bsal _______________16.0 _ 28.0 _ 4.1 _ 101 _ 097 ___ Oak Park

Artane2002 _________16.0 _ 27.3 _ 4.6 _ 105 _ 085 ___ Oak Park

waterways _________ 15.9 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 097 _ 109 ___ Mount Dillon

Adam240610 _______ 15.8 _ 27.9 _ 3.5 _ 088 _ 111 ___ Phoenix Park

Mr Stonewall ________15.8 _ 27.8 _ 3.9 _ 077 _ 115 ___ Mount Dillon

Mr Skinner _________ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 4.4 _ 090 _ 090 ___ Phoenix Park

Rameire ___________ 15.8 _ 26.6 _ 3.5 _ 094 _ 098 ___ Oak Park

Jpmarn ____________ 15.7 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ___ Shannon

Joe Public __________ 15.6 _ 29.4 _ 3.3 _ 110 _ 098 ___ Phoenix Park

Dacogawa __________15.5 _ 29.1 _ 3.7 _ 112 _ 075 ___ Phoenix Park

___Con Sensus ______15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 100 _ 093 ___ see discussion below

Kindred Spirit _______15.5 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 095 ___ Oak Park

_ NormaL __________ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ (scores by climatology)

DOCARCH __________15.4 _ 29.5 _ 4.1 _ 090 _ 102 ___ Oak Park

M.T. Cranium _______ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 3.7 _ 105 _ 095 ___ Phoenix Park

WolfeEire __________ 15.3 _ 27.0 _ 4.8 _ 107 _ 093 ___ Phoenix Park

sryanbruen _________15.2 _ 26.0 _ 4.9 _ 095 _ 090 ___ Oak Park

Sunflower3 _________15.1 _ 27.2 _ 4.1 _ 115 _ 092 ___ Phoenix Park

Dasa29 ____________15.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 080 _ 120 ___ Mullingar

Appledrop __________15.0 _ 27.1 _ 3.2 _ 135 _ 086 ___ Oak Park

Gonzo _____________14.9 _ 25.3 _ 3.8 _ 137 _ 087___ Phoenix Park

Cornerstonelad ______14.8 _ 25.9 _ 4.0 _ 120 _ 085 ___ Oak Park

Pauldry ____________14.7 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 125 _ 090 ___ Phoenix Park

=======================

Locations for MAX (and scores for Con Sensus if correct) _

Phoenix Park ______ 9 __ (scores 10)

Oak Park _________ 8 __ (scores 9)

Mountdillon _______ 2 __ (scores 5)

Shannon, Newport,

Casement, Mullingar _ 1 _ (scores 3)

If none of above, Con scores zero.

If PP or OP are not first but score above assigned score for top location, Con will score +1 relative to lower assigned score.

Your score will be rank of your pick in top ten … given small number of picks, non-picks will count in scoring. For example, let's say moorepark is 3rd warmest, no bonus scores of 8 will be awarded, ties of picked and unpicked locations will be ignored, and ranks will be exclusive of ties, so if let's say Oak Park and Newport and tied second for 9 points, next on list will count 8 not seven points.

NormaL will score 10 for PP, 9 for OP or Shannon, 8 for Mountdillon, 7 for Casement, 6 for Moorepark, 5 for Dublin, Mullingar or Dunsany, 4 for Athenry, Claremorris or Newport, and 1 to 3 for any other.

Tae laidir

I haven't been following temp, but Mullingar had a 5.6 yesterday.

pauldry

Claremorris 5.2c today.

M.T. Cranium

After first week …

IMT _ 13.0 C (2.0 below normal)

MAX _ not tracked yet

MIN _ 5.2

PRC _ 88% of normal

SUN _ 99% of normal

_ loc'n of MAX not tracked yet

… brr …

Tae laidir

Mt Dillon 22.3 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After second week …

IMT _ 13.7 C (2.0 below normal) with second week 14.4 (1.0 below normal)

MAX _ 22.3 (now 23.4 Newport 15 July)

MIN _ 5.2

PRC _ 84% of normal (second week average 79%, very dry west, north)

SUN _ 94.5% of normal (second week average 90%)

_ loc'n of MAX _ will start with readings associated with 22.3 reported on 13th …

hopefully all to be replaced later … Newport on 15th could change this list.

1. now Newport 23.4 (15)

Newport 23.4 (15)
Mountdillon 22.3 (13)
Athenry 22.2 (13)
Gurteen 21.0 (13)
Mullingar 20.6 (13,14)
Oak Park 20.5 (13) t Shannon (14)

for now will only list values above 20.5, Athenry hit 21.7 on 14th but had exceeded that on 13th (only a station's highest value of July counts for list).

GFS output now available to end of month suggests following:

IMT would slowly rise to around 14.6 to 14.8

MAX and MIN would be challenged a few times but no actual values exceed current noted values. But GFS can be rather conservative so would say 23, 4 could easily occur within a high-verification outcome (or the outcome could be totally different past seven days as is sometimes the case)

PRC would end up around 80% (but I have seen wetter guidance in recent days that would go as high as 120%)

Will continue to update MAX locations as new readings above 20.5 take place.

If we don't see a substantial rise, I may check back 1st to 12th at contest chosen sites to make sure we didn't miss any 20.5+ values. But I'll abandon that idea if entire list starts to fill in above 22 (as it would in 90% of Julys of past)

pauldry

Newport was 23c today.

WolfeEire

Newport finished 23.4c yesterday