If Ireland had First past the post?

Tribalcamp

Has anyone ever done a list of what the Dail would look like if Ireland used first past the post? Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't Michael Lowey, Michael Healy Rae for example still have been elected with FOTP?

downthemiddle

Why would we want to copy the failed British system?

Tribalcamp

Who the Devil said anything about wanting to copy it ? Mind you, reading today that Jeremy Corbyn is likely to lose his seat makes it obvious that regardless of FPTP, the Brits just vote differently from us Irish, if it's true about Corbyn, a personal vote just isn't a thing over there.

28064212

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058356512/if-ireland-had-first-past-the-post

That's a pointless exercise. You'd have to assume that people would give their single vote to the same candidate they gave their first-preference in PR-STV. In reality, if FPTP was system used, voting patterns would change massively

davetherave

I did this earlier on this year on another thread where someone was still giving out that SF "won" the last General Election.

Just to humour the OP, here would be the results assuming a FPTP still with the same amount of seats per constituency. Big jump for FF.

This is done purely on 1st preferences with the top 3/4/5 getting the seats based off the 1st count. The difference over the actual election results is as below.

SF: +2

FF: +10

FG: -2

G: -3

LAB: No Change

PBP: -2

Ind: -2

I4C: -1

SOC Dem: -2

osarusan

You can't just add up first preferences for existing votes and assume that voting patterns would remain the same. For a start, there wouldn't be more than 1 candidate from any party in a constituency if there was only 1 seat up for grabs, whereas now FF and FG (and in the future, SF) have multiple candidates.

The whole dynamic would be utterly different.

Hodors Appletart

There'd be smaller constituencies with only two candidates in the running for the seat, in reality.

Probably dominated by FF & FG, but they'd also be way more skewed in their ideologies and there'd be no real centre ground.

It's impossible to compare.

steinbock123

Didn’t Fianna Fāil try to bring FPTP in here donkeys years ago?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282097#Comment_122282097

…would it have been of major benefit to themselves i wonder?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282097#Comment_122282097

Twice yes, it failed in referenda both times.

gym_imposter

I hate our PR system

Multi seat constituencies results in Healy Rae ism as a TD is always alert to the fact that if they aren't parochial enough, some other loudmouth will take their seat

That's one negative, another is that pre election manifestos inevitably are thrown in the bin as single party government isn't possible and so endless compromise results in political fudge

A great big centrist gloop of Watery indecision

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282482#Comment_122282482

centrist governments have shown globally to lead to far more stable outcomes, with problems of course, as theres no such thing as perfect, with fptp showing to lead to far more unstable outcomes…

i.e. careful what you wish for, as we can clearly see the results of fptp in other major countries such as the us and the uk….

HalloweenJack

PR results in more voices getting a say in running the country and generally represents the wishes of an overwhelming majority of the electorate. Less likely to have single-party governments so more cases of coalitions and compromise.

FPTP is winner takes all and only favours the biggest party, though it doesn't necessarily mean that party represents the majority of the people.

When was the last time a single-party government in the UK got more than 50% of the popular vote? PR coalitions tend to represent more than 50% of the electorate. Its not perfect but far more preferrable.

Glaceon

The two biggest users of FPTP (the US and UK) are anything but stable these days as it facilitates minority rule. I'd imagine that FPTP in Ireland would have resulted in FF majority governments for much of the state's existence.

ancapailldorcha

First Past the Post is an anti-democratic abomination. It works perfectly fine when there are two and only two political parties but when there are more we see nonsense like the government having a whopping majority on less than 43% of the popular vote.

gym_imposter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282583#Comment_122282583

I'm saying compromise is the biggest problem with governance here

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282643#Comment_122282643

ah its very complicated, compromises definitely prevent getting what needs to be done done, but theres nothing simply about governance, but sadly its looking like significant change in governance in ireland isnt on the cards just yet, but in a way that may also prevent serious instabilities from occurring…..

zell12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282351#Comment_122282351

Thank you Daideos for voting No!

zell12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282482#Comment_122282482

This is what we the electorate want! This is an accurate and fair representation of the public who elect them. Nobody can argue that. We are blessed with the PR-STV

KaneToad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282583#Comment_122282583

I agree. PR-STV is the least worst form of democratically electing candidates.

My ideal tweak to it would be, following the election, spinning a wheel and randomly assigning TDs to a constituency for the period of that government/Dáil. Eliminates localism and gets all TDs acting in the national interest! They won't be tied to a constituency and can end up anywhere in the next election.

Patent pending.

HalloweenJack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282643#Comment_122282643

Compromise means less extremes and less dramatic changes when a new government comes in, i.e. more stability. Coalition partners tend to hold each other to account and can reel the other in somewhat.

Its more boring and things take more time but I'd take it over the dramatic back-and-forth you get in the UK and the US any time there's a change in government.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058356512/if-ireland-had-first-past-the-post

If it was first past the post since the inception of the state, FF would have been the dominant left of center party (remember they split from the original SF) and FG the dominant right of center. The "left" would line up in the FF franchise in a coalition akin to the US Democrats since they would be unlikely to get elected otherwise.

Politics in Ireland moved from the civil war factions but is today limited to moving along tram lines set down in Brussels in that they can stop on the line but the route is fixed. The mainstream parties FF, FG, SF and motley crew of boutique socialist parties broadly agree, each has their own pet projects that distinguishes them. Independent candidates are mostly regional issues (e.g. Mica issue), they can pickup opposition to the consensus (the none of the above vote) that dominates the modern Dail, they are often breakaways from the mainstream parties. They get more traction because no one party dominates politically in the state and can sometimes hold the balance of power. Prior to the Healy Raes', Tony Gregory was the most successful independent candidate representing his constituency.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122283128#Comment_122283128

errr emm ff are actually a more centrist to center right party, hence why we have a very strong dependence towards fdi, mnc's and the wider global financial system, for our needs, but they do have a sprinkle of leftism in their policies…..

VinLieger

Why would we switch to the inherently undemocratic system that is FPTP? In the last 100 years there has been 1 single UK government elected by a majority of voters and it was the Lib Dem - Tory coalition. Sure look at the current fiasco where labour are on less than 50% in the polls but projected to win 70%+ of seats, its a joke of a system.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122283160#Comment_122283160

Would they have been when if the state had always been first past the post electoral selection? In the alternate reality the dynamics of political selection would have changed, FF and FG are at their core populist parties they will go the direction the voters wants to go. First past the post tends to favour two large parties. At the states beginning Ireland was an mainly an agrarian society, FG seen as the large farmers party plus all that blueshirt baggage and fiscally conservative (Clann na Gael), FF the small farmers party was able to get the laborers vote. As the state developed the urban vote became dominant and the FF franchise could have developed in a more left wing direction using that base. The left wingers and social reformers would use the FF franchise have climbed the ranks in FF and changed its character.

You could also argue the alternate reality may have seen FF could become the dominant center right party and Labour the dominant left wing party, with FG (Clann na Gsel) fading into obscurity.

Grayson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282482#Comment_122282482

The PR system isn't responsible for that, it's the size of the constituency. When the ratio of TD's to population is so low, then you get people like the Healy Raes.

J.O. Farmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122285880#Comment_122285880

Michael Healy Rae gets among the top number of votes in the country.

Also tds to population is set within a range as per the constitution. The ratio in kerry is not much different to anywhere else.

In FTTP it would probably be easier for someone like the healy raes to get elected in a smaller constituency with less voters.

Shan Doras

What's the difference between the PR voting system here and the PR voting system for Stormont ?

zell12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122320403#Comment_122320403

Seems to be the same?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/stormont-northern-ireland-sdlp-example-ukip-b2072108.html

davetherave

They are both PR-STV, but I think they deal with the transfers/surplus differently. They transfer all the votes at a fraction value, whereas we transfer a fraction of the votes at whole value? Hare method vs Gregory Method.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122320648#Comment_122320648

Yes. You can be elected by a fractional vote in Stormont.

We do that for Seanad panel (non University ones) elections, but make it less obvious by making each vote 1,000 votes in the first place.

There was this level of seperation in the Seanad election last time at an earlier stage - both candidates got elected after a number of counts.

22 thousandths of a fractional vote between them at the time.

Pman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058356512/if-ireland-had-first-past-the-post

I wish it had FPTP. We need one politcian accountable for one constituency. Where all your 4 or 5 TDs are non governement or even government who you can never hold accountable for an issue in the one constituency. They all take credit for whatever initiative materialises so what is the point. The original intention of the directly elected mayor in Limerick was to see what one representative could achieve. However , it ended up a carbon copy of the previous role.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122320803#Comment_122320803

Where all your 4 or 5 TDs are non governement or even government who can you ever hold accountable for an issue in the one constituency

This makes no sense. You are far, far more likely to have a non-government TD in your constituency in FPTP who can do absolutely sod all and will still claim credit for things they couldn't possible achieve.

Capt'n Midnight

https://i.imgur.com/KHK5AUl.gif

This includes transfers of power between the actual people involved in a civil war where prisoners were executed for revenge.

In our system our main parties can concentrate on the centre consensus and not pander to the extremes whose parties could still join a coalition and have some of their views taken on board.

We have multiple seat constituencies and 'devil take the hindmost' as a filtering mechanism. In most constituencies it's only the last seat that's being seriously contested. At the same time there's almost no safe seats that an unpopular candidate can be parachuted it.

The best part of our system is that the voter only has to rank the politicians in order of choice rather than second-guess who is the ONE person most likely to beat a candidate who is likely to get elected but you don't want to.

In the UK and US FPTP leads to all-or-nothing situations where during the first term the new government spends a lot of it's time and effort reversing the policies of the previous one. At great financial cost to the taxpayer. In the UK look at the the whole privatisation/nationalisation flip flops.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122320803#Comment_122320803

Is this what happens in the UK?

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122320803#Comment_122320803

In 2015 in Belfast South the SDLP got less than 25% of the vote. It swaps between the SDLP and DUP now, but was a UUP seat and this time out Alliance might come second with a possible win in future if both SF and SDLP stand. Or if the SDLP didn't stand SF might take it.

So it's all over the shop.

It would be better as part of a multi-seat constituency.

On the other hand roughly a third of the seats in the UK are safe seats where in a normal year anything with the right colour rosette would win.

Or look at when Teresa May in 2017. The Tories got 318 MPs (including the Speaker) out of 350. With SF's 7 MPs abstaining she'd have only needed 322 for a Majority.

She was 93 votes short out of an electorate of 46,836,533 which led to the DUP coming on board and resulted in a hard Brexit.

20 Kensington

21 Perth and North Perthshire

22 Dudley North

30 Newcastle-Under-Lyme

next up was 47 Crewe and Nantwich