Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

JanuarySnowstor

Extremely high tides this week combined with heavy rain and strong winds mean a Nationwide yellow is more than justified! Indeed flooding for areas prone to it is a certainty along the West Coast. It may not look it on paper but I actually think the next few days could be quite disruptive especially the follow on event Thursday evening

Remember plenty still in mobile parks and campsites etc!

gandalfio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122524765#Comment_122524765

Will it be all done and dusted come Saturday?

Cork2021

not mentioning any names but there’s a page on facebook(Irish run) stating they’ll issue official warnings soon, as the weather deteriorates…. How do they get away with it?

US3

Galway Beos headline

Hurricane Ernesto ‘danger to life’ warning as Met Eireann issue update for Ireland

This **** should be illegal

Gonzo

Tonights GFS 18z showing a very warm spell of weather for the opening week of September when all the kids are back in school. A similar situation to last September which brought a very warm to hot first week to September, however this is not well supported but there is scope within the model output for a decent spell of weather to start September, just not as overly warm as the operational run.

I'll be in Spain of course during this time and it looks like my first week there will be 3 to 4C above normal with +25 to +28 uppers possible and temperatures into the low to mid 30s, I'm looking forward to that.

aisling86

let’s see how this holds up in west cork 🫣 I won’t get down to take it down before Thursdays wind.

Akrasia

Meant to be camping in Connemara on Thursday and Friday nights. Looks like it could be a wild one on the west coast

Elmer Blooker

a very unpleasant and wet looking chart if you’re camping but probably not very windy in the ‘eye’ of the storm? best of luck Akrasia.

Meteorite58

Probably gusting 70 to 75km/h overland tonight into the early morning, could see 80 to 90km/h in coastal areas in the W ( highest winds in the most exposed headlands ), heaviest of the rain along Atlantic coastal counties, small chance of a brief thunderstorm, mainly in the SW I think.

Late Thurs / early Fri morning still a fair bit of uncertainty, latest model output showing the center of the deepening small area of LP futher South on latest runs keeping the strongest winds off shore but a couple still showing some strong wing sweeping over Ireland albeit very quickly and all gone through early in the morning, will see.

typhoony

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122523048#Comment_122523048

I'd be confident that the start of September will see a more settled picture, I've seen it many times over the years. When the tropics start firing at the east of the US it can disrupt the jet stream and we end up with settled weather, they even give it a name "an Indian Summer"

Elmer Blooker

completely weird that temps are a little below normal today in a Tm airflow like this, many many times I’ve seen the low 20s (even when overcast) in set ups exactly like this.

zisdead

Indian Sumner naming has absolutely nothing to do with hurricanes ( ex or otherwise) or indeed the Ocean in general. It doesn't even occur in September. I mean the name " Indian" alone should tell you it has to at least be associated with the great plains and front range of the US. ( I.e where most of the "Indian" tribes resided).

I will leave it to Google search so you can confirm the connection.

50HX

Thread is gone to the dogs between posts about what is the weather like in 5 days time I'm goin on hols in wherever to photos of will this tent/gazebo survive the high winds.

This use to be a great thread one time

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122529483#Comment_122529483

I'm going to back up what your saying but tbh we have a valid reason this summer. This summer has been tumbleweeds for interesting model watching and discussion, we've been stuck in the same rut all summer with very little variation from one week to the next. We still haven't made it to page 3 and summer is almost over which sums this summer up. Similar on the extended range thread, there has been very little excitement in the model watching all summer. I've barely posted in there myself and normally I would posting up lots of charts from arpege and UKV models getting very excited about several days of high pressure, high temperatures, heat plumes and indeed thunderstorm probability charts, there hasn't been a sniff to this to latch onto all summer. Hopefully next summer the model watching is a bit more interesting and technical even if things don't verify. Many of us are tired and bored as well as disappointed with this summer and I can't blame them.

We used to be able to move posts from here to the more relevant general discussion thread but we can no longer do that with the new version of boards and if we were able to do that there wouldn't be much of a thread left other than my original post and a few more. The technical discussion threads will become much more interesting again hopefully soon but we need a winter with some eye candy, a stormy autumn and a decent summer to bring back the excitement in model watching. 2024 isn't going to win any awards for model watching.

JanuarySnowstor

TThe weather in Cork is quite wild this evening. These ex hurricanes always pack an extra punch! Imo a yellow across Ireland was justified!

squonk

It’s just a windy wet evening here in Clare. Slightly a bit out of the norm but nothing to get concerned about.

Yeah I agree. It’s been an abysmal summer. Anecdotally I bought a decent-ish outdoor table and chairs last year and was looking first to getting them back out this summer. There just wasn’t the weather for it though. Not really at all. Even last summer there were a good few evenings k sat out watching the sun go down, particularly last June 2023. I honestly managed maybe 5-7 evenings this summer. It was just cold and not very pleasant for the most part. At no point did it arrive at a point where it was particularly fine and settled. Now I’m looking at the barbecue and thinking it’ll be back in the shed in the next few weeks and that it didn’t Fahy get used as much this year as it should. It’s kind of depressing to think we’re heading back to winter already.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: let's stay on topic please, discussion on charts up to +120hrs only in this thread.

Meteorite58

Showing below the transit of the small fast moving deepening area of LP which the Met Office has named as Storm Lilian as stronger winds affect the UK. Just keeping an eye on the E, SE to see if the winds whip up some strong gusts there as it leaves the coast early morning. Quite wet with 20mm or so falling in places in a very short time. Interesting to see the warm airs being dragged up over the southern half of the country, could even be warmer in southern parts during the night hours than the day time, quite humid overnight.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1826553097541349513

Meteorite58

Some of the Hi Res models max wind speeds. Not very high winds but the fact that trees are in full leaf would probably push it into yellow wind warning category.

Supercell

The SW could potentially have some localised damage there tonight, I'd imagine soil in the SE and E is so bone dry it should help to anchor trees even in full leaf.

Here's how it looks around midnight from windy.com :

Meteorite58

HARMONIE showing it getting very strong for a time before the strong winds leave the E, SE early morning. AROME showing strong winds in the E early morning. The strongest winds going through relatively quickly in and hour or two I'd reckon.

Meteorite58

Windy wet night into early Tues afternoon in store . GFS rainfall prediction an outlier compared to the Euro models.

A small chance of sn isolated thunderstorm also more so towards the Atlantic Seaboard.

Meteorite58

ECM 06Z, that's a lot of water to come down off the mountains in the SW.

adocholiday

Lets hope the GFS is showing the right scenario here. 10am Sunday we can see GFS and ECM are showing a very similar setup.

However as we move into Monday the ECM shows a deepening low developing, keeping the high pressure away but then has nowhere to go so gets stuck over us for a few days. However the GFS doesn't develop this low and the high pressure, while never really getting established over us, does continue to influence our weather and keeps us relatively settled. It's worth noting that ECM is on its own here with this low developing, ICON, UKMO, and GEM are all aligned with the GFS so it'll be interesting to see if the ECM has picked up on something the rest have missed.

And there's a significant difference in rainfall between the two at +120 hours and at +240 (but for the FI thread!)

Meteorite58

Pleasant temperatures again tomorrow, high teens touching 20C or so, a bit less warm away from the East on Monday, mid to high teens on Tues , best near the East, cooler Weds around the mid teens and up again on Thurs to the mid to high teens, some cooler nights midweek and set to improve again from Fri for a few days where it could get warm again ( watching for thunderstorms those days ) .

Rainfall totals a way down on what was originally being shown, GFS clearly did very well predicting the less rainfall from days ago. Weak front tomorrow breaking up over the country from the afternoon, amounts low. The SE could see some heavy rain from early Monday convective in nature, might have some thunderstorms off the coast and will see if one moves closer to land.

In all a good improvement in general to what was being shown only a few days ago I reckon,

US3

No autumn FI thread yet ? The mirror say there is a 25c scorcher on the way ?

Ros4Sam24

Friday looking like quite the day in the NW with 25 possible. Can’t remember the last time I said that!

highdef

Looking at the automated charts on Met Eirerann for tomorrow afternoon (Friday), it looks like a northeast Foehn wind is forecast to develop on the lee side of the Mournes.This then provides a long and fairly narrow corridor of warmer (and probably dryer) air right across a swathe of the midlands in a southwesterly direction, as shown below. Will be interesting to see if this materialises as forecast below.

highdef

AROME high resolution model is also showing a Foehn wind to the lee of the Wicklow mountains so parts of Carlow could see the highest temperatures……In the vicinity of Tullow being a good contender based on the below.

The Hormonie model (which is what Met Eireann uses for short range forecasting, shows the Mourne Mountains Foehn effect warmth on the southwest lee, reaching all the way to near the Clare border. This is more or less the same as shown in my previous post, but displayed differently.

WolfeEire

Looks like the far southwest, Waterford and Connemara in for the heaviest of tomorrow's rainfall.